[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 031623
SWODY1
SPC AC 031621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT MON JUL 03 2006

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY...EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NY/PA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF MT/WY/SD...

...WESTERN GREAT LAKES...
BAND OF RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS TODAY FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO/MN TOWARD WI. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
AHEAD OF SYSTEM ACROSS WI WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD
WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS
ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER THIS REGION AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1500 J/KG.  

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS WI...THEN TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE MI INTO LOWER MI. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL.  DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS...BACKED FLOW IMMEDIATELY
NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD POSE A RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OVER SOUTHEAST WI/NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THESE STORMS OVER SOUTHERN WI/EASTERN IA WILL
LIKELY ORGANIZE AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ALONG/JUST NORTH OF WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN IL INTO NORTHERN IND/SOUTHERN LOWER
MI.  HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINT VALUES POOLED ALONG THIS AXIS...COUPLED
WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
CONCENTRATED AREA OF SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING.  EASTERN EXTENT OF
SEVERE THREAT COULD REACH INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OH
OVERNIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION/ORGANIZATION OF MCS.

...NY/PA/NJ...
INCREASING CU FIELD IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS
THIS REGION TODAY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.  PLEASE REFER TO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1425 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

...MT/WY...
AMPLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER SOUTHERN MT/NORTHERN WY
TODAY...WHERE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS REGION...WITH ISOLATED CELLS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK IN THIS
AREA...SUGGESTING SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LOCALIZED.

..HART/TAYLOR.. 07/03/2006