[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 020107
SWODY1
SPC AC 020106

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD TO
THE CNTRL PLAINS...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WAS DEPICTED WELL BY LATEST WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE LOOP AND WAS TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE NWRN GREAT LAKES
REGION. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND/WIND SHIFT WAS SITUATED FROM NRN
LOWER MI WSWWD ACROSS WI/IA...AND THEN FROM SERN NEB TO NWRN KS.
DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY DOWNWIND FROM LAKE MI...ACROSS
MUCH OF LOWER MI...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID
LEVEL IMPULSE AND FRONTAL LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION TONIGHT.

BOTH CAP AND INSTABILITY STRENGTHEN SWWD ALONG THE FRONT/WIND
SHIFT...FROM WI/IA SWWD ACROSS NEB/KS. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT HAVE EFFECTIVELY OVERCOME INHIBITION AND
RESULTED IN INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM NERN IA INTO SRN WI OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. RUC SOUNDINGS AND DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATE THAT
STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR IN THE STORM UPDRAFT LAYER WERE
CONTRIBUTING TO HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL SR-HELICITY...AND EFFECTIVE
CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR WAS MORE THAT SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE
PRESENCE OF MODEST AMBIENT INHIBITION AND WARM/DRY AIR ABOVE THE
SURFACE LAYER ARE PROBABLY RESULTING IN A RELATIVELY HIGH LFC WHICH
MAY TEND TO LESSEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS IT 
SPREADS ESEWD FROM THE MS RIVER ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL AND SWRN MI
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW HAS AIDED DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING
EAST ACROSS ERN CO...NWRN NEB...AND EXTREME SWRN SD. IN ADDITION...
MORE ISOLATED POST-FRONTAL ACTIVITY HAS INITIATED FROM NWRN KS
ACROSS ERN NEB WHERE MOISTENING AND FRONTAL LIFT HAVE ACTED TO
OVERCOME STRONG INHIBITION. WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND POCKETS OF GREATER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO MAINTAIN A
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS...GENERALLY WEAKER LARGE
SCALE UPWARD MOTION MAY LIMIT COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE THROUGH LATER
TONIGHT. INCREASING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET FROM KS TO NEB WILL BE
DIRECTED INTO THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL ZONE AND MAY PROVE ADEQUATE TO
MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 07/02/2006