[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 011955
SWODY1
SPC AC 011953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FAR NERN
STATES...

...UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER WI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING
JUST AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY VORTICITY MAX ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER NRN
WI AND UPPER MI. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE MOVING SEWD ACROSS ERN WI...UPPER MI AND INTO NRN LOWER MI
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MAXIMUM OF STRONG INSTABILITY
OVER WCNTRL WI WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG.
INSTABILITY IS INCREASING ACROSS LOWER MI WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE
FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH A 60 KT MID-LEVEL
JET CENTERED OVER NERN WI. THE STRONG SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST
SUPERCELLS AND/BOW ECHOES WILL BE LIKELY. A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LAPSE
RATES EXIST FROM IA EXTENDING ENEWD INTO LOWER MI SUGGESTING LARGE
HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY
BE FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH SUPERCELLS THAT PERSIST INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH BOW ECHOES
EMBEDDED IN THE LINE DUE TO THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS A LARGE MCS ORGANIZES AND TRACKS SEWD
ACROSS SRN WI...LAKE MI AND THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI.

...FAR NERN STATES...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER ERN QUEBEC
WITH STRONG WLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
RELATIVELY WEAK...LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AS SHOWN BY OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS.

...HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM ERN MT
SWD ACROSS ERN WY INTO NRN CO. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EXTENDING EWD
INTO SRN NEB ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION WHICH IS CREATING STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES IN
THE LOWER TO MID-LEVELS. AS A RESULT...THE STORMS WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING A SUPERCELL THREAT WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 07/01/2006