[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 011629
SWODY1
SPC AC 011628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX IS LOCATED
OVER WRN PORTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR THIS MORNING EXTENDING SSWWD THRU
CENTRAL IA.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD THIS AFTN OVER
THE NRN PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEFORE SWINGING NEWD OVER
SERN ONTARIO TNGT.  BROAD RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN TIER
OF THE U.S. WITH THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES REMAINING FROM THE NRN
PLATEAU REGION ESEWD THRU THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SRN NEW ENGLAND.
AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW JUST NW OF THE NWRN
SHORES OF LK SUPERIOR SWWD ACROSS NWRN WI AND NWRN IA INTO SWRN NEB.
 THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
PLAY AS THE MAIN SOURCE OF FORCING FOR ACTIVITY THIS AFTN AND TNGT.

...MUCH OF LOWER MI SWWD INTO SRN WI...

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI
THIS AFTN AND TRAIL SWWD ACROSS SRN WI. MORNING RAOB DATA INDICATED
MAIN BAND 35-45 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS FROM NERN KS INTO
NERN WI AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM NRN IL INTO NERN LOWER MI BY
THIS EVENING.  WINDS AT 500 MB ARE EXPECTED TO BE WLY AT 45-55 KT
FROM SERN MN INTO NRN LOWER MI AND BE SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT ENHANCING
VERTICAL SHEAR AND UVVS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY MID
AFTN INTO EARLY TNGT.  IN ADDITION...AIR MASS IS ALREADY
EXPERIENCING SOME DESTABILIZATION AS SFC DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID
60S AND CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES AROUND -6 AND
MUCAPES ABV 2000 J/KG. THUS...PRIND ARE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOVING INTO WRN LOWER MI EARLY THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...AREAS FROM IA INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO/WY...

QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SWRN WI
THRU CENTRAL IA INTO NWRN KS AND SERN CO BY LATER THIS AFTN.  NWLY
WINDS AT THE SFC ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ELY BY TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ENHANCE UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE AREA.  SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO COME FROM MONSOONAL EXTENSION OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION MOVING ESEWD WITHIN THE MAIN BAND OF THE
WESTERLIES AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THEN ENEWD ALONG/JUST N OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.  SOME OF THE
ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 8 AND 8.5C/KM.

..MCCARTHY/TAYLOR.. 07/01/2006