[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 312000
SWODY1
SPC AC 311958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT MON JUL 31 2006

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT
LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...

...GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AT MID AFTERNOON...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN
NEB. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CAPPING/WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE WARM
SECTOR...THE MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT ALONG AND/OR
IN THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH SOME
HAIL IS POSSIBLE...WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WITHIN A
RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS MN/FAR EASTERN SD INTO NORTHWEST WI/WESTERN U.P. OF MICH
THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST
AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

...UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ONE OR MORE SMALL MCS/S TO ROUND THE RIDGE
FROM EASTERN ONTARIO/FAR SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AHEAD
OF THIS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
EXISTING FLOW FIELDS/VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS CONDITIONALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS/MCS MAINTENENCE. EVEN SO...THE TIME
OF DAY/MODEST DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MILD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT. PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH SOME HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL.

..GUYER/HART.. 07/31/2006