[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 261233
SWODY1
SPC AC 261232

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2006

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EAST TX AND
WESTERN LA...

...MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MN/WI INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS
FEATURE HAS MAINTAINED AN AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION OVER IA/IL/MO
OVERNIGHT.  STORMS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING...BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL IL INTO IND.  STRONG
HEATING AHEAD OF ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000
J/KG.  MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TO
ORGANIZE STORMS...WITH INTENSE MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.  ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO WESTERN OH DURING THE EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING.

FARTHER NORTH...MAIN SURFACE FRONT/CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL STRETCH
FROM WI INTO UPPER MI BY MID AFTERNOON.  RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND STRONG HEATING WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THIS
AREA...LEADING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS LOWER MI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH A RISK OF HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

...AR/TX...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE UPPER TX GULF
COAST. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE BECOME RATHER STRONG ON EAST SIDE
OF LOW...WITH 40-50 KNOT SOUTHERLY 850MB WINDS FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO PARTS OF EAST TX/WESTERN LA.  A VERY MOIST AIR MASS
IS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...LEADING TO SETUP
SIMILAR TO A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM.  ISOLATED CELLS IN THIS REGION
HAVE SHOWN LOW LEVEL ROTATION THIS MORNING...AND THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING ENHANCES INSTABILITY.

...NY/PA INTO NEW ENGLAND...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST U.S...WHERE FULL SUNSHINE AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S ARE EXPECTED.  WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY.  HOWEVER...SOME DRY AIR ALOFT
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF GUSTY WINDS
IN STRONGEST CELLS.

...DESERT SOUTHWEST...
GULF SURGE CONTINUES TODAY AS DEWPOINTS RISE THROUGH THE 60S OVER
SOUTHERN/WESTERN AZ.  OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS WEAKENING
RAPIDLY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STRONG DESTABILIZATION AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST NM/EASTERN AZ AND PROPAGATE
WESTWARD.  UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AS
AREAS OF STRONG HEATING BECOME MORE APPARENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRENDS CAN BE MONITORED.

..HART/TAYLOR.. 07/26/2006