[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 260619
SWODY1
SPC AC 260617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2006

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES SWWD
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN ROCKIES EWD INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND THEN NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A RIDGE
COVERS MOST OF THE COUNTRY. A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN
THIS BROAD TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN NRN MN...WILL MOVE SEWD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM BY LATE
AFTERNOON WILL EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO SRN IA/SRN
NEB...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM NERN MO SWWD
INTO SRN KS. AN UPPER TROUGH...WHICH HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER THE WRN
GULF THE PAST FEW DAYS...IS PROGGED TO LIFT NWD INTO SERN TX DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

...ERN GREAT LAKES AREA AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION...
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST CONCERNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION POTENTIAL AND
EVOLUTION FOR SEVERE WEATHER. STRONGEST FORCING FOR CONVECTION WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
OVER WI AT 18Z AND MOVE EAST OF LOWER MI AFTER 00Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO
BE WEAK AS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION/CLOUDS OVERSPREAD  LOWER MI THIS
MORNING. IF SOME HEATING CAN OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE TROUGH PASSAGE...A FEW STORMS WITH WIND
DAMAGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK ACROSS EXTREME
ERN IA ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. IF REMNANT CONVECTION/
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THESE STORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED EWD THROUGH MID
MORNING...THE STORMS WOULD LIKELY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO A
WARMING/DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. WIND AND HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO
WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ALLOWING
THE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES NEAR 3000
J/KG. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WOULD INHIBIT
LARGE HAIL. TEMPERATURES NEAR 100F...30 DEGREE SPREADS...AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. OTHER
HIGH BASED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
INTO PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN KS.

...ERN TX AND LA...
LATEST ETA/GFS MODELS BOTH LIFT GULF TROUGH NWD TODAY WITH STRONGEST
WINDS LOCATED ACROSS FAR ERN TX AND LA. MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE NWD INTO AREAS THAT HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 90S WILL ENCOUNTER A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
AND A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

...SRN AZ...
DESPITE WEAK WINDS ALOFT...STORMS ORGANIZED LATE TUESDAY AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COLD POOL PUSHED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SWD
THROUGH SRN AZ. MOISTURE SURGE FROM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WILL
MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND IF SUFFICIENT HEATING OCCURS
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR IN THE MORNING...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN. HOWEVER...SOME CONCERN THAT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING 
THIS EVENING MAY RESULT IN WEAKER CONVECTION...SO ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES FORECAST ATTM.

...ERN PA NEWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...
WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH WEAK CAPPING SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...THOUGH THE WEAK WIND FIELDS/SHEAR
SUGGEST THAT THE THREAT IS LOW.

..IMY/TAYLOR.. 07/26/2006