[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 250054
SWODY1
SPC AC 250053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

...GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY...
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE ERN U.P. SWWD INTO NRN WI/SRN
MN/SRN SD THIS EVENING. SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE THE AIR MASS WAS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
WNWLY WINDS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE FAVOR SMALL
THUNDERSTORM LINES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
WINDS/HAIL. HOWEVER...STORM INTENSITIES AND COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
DURING THE EVENING AS STORM OUTFLOWS GRADUALLY STABILIZE/COOL THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.

SEVERE STORMS WERE ALSO LOCATED ACROSS SERN SD...WHERE STRONGLY
VEERING WIND PROFILES WERE RESULTING IN STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
THAN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR THE COLD
FRONT AND ON THE ERN EDGE OF A VERY HOT AIR MASS THAT STRETCHED
ACROSS SRN SD/NRN NEB. THIS HEAT ENERGY PLUS THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TO SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND/HAIL DAMAGE...REFERENCE WW 641.

...CENTRAL AZ...
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
THIS EVENING...WITH NELY/ELY MID LEVEL WINDS LOCATED ACROSS SRN AZ.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE
AND ARE LIKELY TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY SWWD. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND
VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
WIND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

...NRN MT...
CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL MOVE ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. DEEP MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO.

..IMY.. 07/25/2006