[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 230601
SWODY1
SPC AC 230559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SUN JUL 23 2006

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS
AND INTO SERN VA...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY SLOWLY THIS PERIOD...AS WRN
RIDGE FLATTENS WITH TIME AND ERN TROUGH LIFTS NEWD AND TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT. 

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST STATES WHILE LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. 
A SECOND/WEAK FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/SWD
INTO MT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...CAROLINAS/SERN VA...
COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE E COAST STATES SHOULD YIELD
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...AS MOIST AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO WEAK
LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH EXISTING
CLOUDS/CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- AIDED BY 30
TO 40 KT WSWLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS NEAR BASE OF UPPER TROUGH -- WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.  THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AS AIRMASS STABILIZES AND FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.  

A LESSER THREAT MAY EXTEND SWD ACROSS GA AND INTO NERN FL...AS
WEAKER SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT LIMITS POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION.  

...N CENTRAL CONUS...
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/SWD
INTO MT/ND...AS SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE SEWD WITHIN FAST
NWLY FLOW ALOFT.  THOUGH CAP SHOULD HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED AND AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MN AND INTO NWRN WI.  STORM INITIATION IS LESS
CERTAIN WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS ND...THOUGH STRONGER FEATURE FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO NWRN MT MAY YIELD A SECOND AREA OF MORE CONCENTRATED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

OVERALL HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SUGGESTS ONLY A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION.

...THE SOUTHWEST...
NELY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST ACROSS NM/ERN AZ THIS PERIOD...WITHIN
SERN QUADRANT OF UPPER RIDGE.  AS STORMS DEVELOP WITHIN ENVIRONMENT
FEATURING MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...A
LIMITED THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO EXIST. 
GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS WRN NM/SERN AZ WHERE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED...BUT OVERALL THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SLIGHT RISK CRITERIA.

...SRN ID AND VICINITY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF UPPER VORT MAX FORECAST
ACROSS SRN ID DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITHIN AIRMASS FEATURING DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  THOUGH WEAK FLOW AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LOW...A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...
AS COLD TROUGH SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION.  SCATTERED/LOW-TOPPED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND
MOVE ESEWD WITHIN DEEP-LAYER WNWLY FLOW.  THOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD MODULATE UPDRAFT INTENSITY...A LOCAL THREAT FOR HAIL AND/OR
GUSTY WINDS IS ANTICIPATED WITH STRONGER CELLS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

..GOSS.. 07/23/2006