[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 190106
SWODY1
SPC AC 190104

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD TO
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LWR OH VLY
WWD INTO SERN MO...

...SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD TO DELMARVA...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS /MLCAPES
1500-2500 J PER KG/ EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF THE MASS TURNPIKE SWWD
INTO NEW YORK CITY AND THEN INTO THE DELMARVA REGION.  THE SEABREEZE
HAS PENETRATED INLAND ACROSS EXTREME SERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE 00Z CHH
SOUNDING EXHIBITED A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.

MAJORITY OF THE TSTMS HAVE EVOLVED FROM SWRN CT SWWD INTO MD EARLY
THIS EVE WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS THE HOTTEST/MOST UNSTABLE
TODAY. THOUGH THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS RELEGATED TO AREAS
NORTH OF NEW YORK CITY...THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
WLY...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW HAS BEEN FAVORABLE FOR TSTM LINE
SEGMENTS TO BOW GIVING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...STRONGER STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE EWD THROUGH PARTS OF EXTREME SERN PA...NJ...DE AND LWR MD. 
TSTMS MAY TEND TO WEAKEN ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND/LONG ISLAND AS THE
STORMS ENCOUNTER THE MARINE LAYER.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.  SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES
WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING.

...LWR OH VLY WWD INTO SERN MO...
A COUPLE STRONG-SEVERE TSTM CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SWWD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LWR OH VLY AND SERN MO BENEATH DIFFLUENT
UPPER FLOW REGIME.  THE IND STORMS APPEAR TO HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE AFTN AND ARE THRIVING ON VERY
UNSTABLE PARCELS...MLCAPE TO 2500 J PER KG.  FARTHER SW...TSTMS THAT
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF KSTL PROBABLY FORMED ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLY DAY ACTIVITY.  THESE STORMS ARE ALSO EMBEDDED
WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE TO 3500 J PER KG.

ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS CINH INCREASES BY LATE EVE.  UNTIL
THEN...VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS AND MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE
RATES/INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  AN ISOLD TORNADO IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.


...SWRN DESERTS...
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS
THE SWRN DESERTS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SCNTRL AZ DESERTS.  THIS
MAY BE DUE TO SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE UPPER AIR DIVERGENCE ALONG THE
BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

THE STRONGEST TSTM CLUSTER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEAR/S OF THE KPHX
METRO AREA SWD TO CNTRL/WRN PIMA COUNTY THROUGH THE EVE HOURS. HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS/DUST STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

...NRN PLAINS...
ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN WILL INCREASE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS.  THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKS WHICH MAY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS WITH STRONGER STORMS. 
ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT
A SLGT RISK AREA.

..RACY.. 07/19/2006