[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 180050
SWODY1
SPC AC 180048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE CNTRL
GRTLKS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SWRN
DESERTS...

...MIDWEST TO THE CNTRL GRTLKS...
PRIMARY UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO TRANSLATE INTO SERN
CANADA THIS EVENING.  COOLING ALOFT AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALONG SRN
PERIPHERY OF THIS IMPULSE WERE SUFFICIENT TO FOCUS A BAND OF TSTMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL WI TO NRN/CNTRL LWR MI
THIS AFTN/EVE. TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD WHILE BACKBUILDING SWWD
INTO THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE TO 4500 J
PER KG.  VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH
THE RELATIVELY DRY MID-LEVELS CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE FOR COLD
POOL GENERATION.  MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME WILL
ENCOURAGE CELLS TO BOW AND DAMAGING WINDS /A FEW WITH WIND GUSTS AOA
65 KT/ WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL /ISOLD HAILSTONES
AOA 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER/.

FARTHER SW...THE IA TSTM CLUSTER CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ALONG THE MS
RVR WITHIN WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW REGIME. SWRN FLANK OF THE MCS HAS A
SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL AND TSTMS APPEAR TO BE BACKBUILDING S AND SW
INTO NERN MO.  NRN FLANK HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO DEVELOP/MOVE MORE
EWD AND MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP/LINK UP WITH THE ACTIVITY
BACKBUILDING SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM WI.  UPSHOT WILL
PROBABLY BE AN EXPANDING AREA OF TSTMS FROM NWRN-NRN IL.  VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY FOSTER VERY LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION
ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
LATER TONIGHT AS IT SINKS SEWD INTO ECNTRL MO-CNTRL IL-NRN IND AND
LAKE ERIE OWING TO STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAKENING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME.

...SWRN DESERTS...
00Z RAOB FROM TUCSON REVEALS A RELATIVELY STABLE SOUNDING WITH
DOWNSLOPE ELY FLOW.  MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS RESIDES THROUGH THE LWR
CO RVR VLY.  EARLIER TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NWRN AZ CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE WWD TOWARD THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO THE CO RVR AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE LAS
VEGAS VLY LATER THIS EVENING.  FARTHER S...MCV CONTINUES TO ROTATE
WWD THROUGH CNTRL PIMA COUNTY. TSTMS MAY YET DEVELOP OR EXPAND
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE VORT TRACK THROUGH SWRN AZ THROUGH THE EVENING. 
ANY TSTM ACROSS THE SWRN DESERTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS/DUST STORMS.

...NRN NY INTO NWRN NEW ENGLAND...
THERE WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF TSTMS WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING NRN NY INTO NWRN NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE TONIGHT. 
UPSTREAM TSTM CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER SRN ONT AND QUE. 
STRONGER FORCING ALOFT AND ATTENDANT SWLY LLJ WILL TRANSLATE NEWD
THROUGH SERN CANADA OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT STRONGER
BOW ECHOES MAY BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT AND APPROACH THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM ME TO NRN NY STATE BY 12Z.

..RACY.. 07/18/2006