[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 101956
SWODY1
SPC AC 101955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LWR GREAT LAKES/UPR OH VLY....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF
NRN NEW ENGLAND....

...NEW ENGLAND...
STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS ALREADY
SHIFTING TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
MIGRATES NORTHEAST OF COASTAL MAINE.  HOWEVER...BENEATH MID-LEVEL
COLD POCKET...WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -14C...AIR MASS
REMAINS POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/
EASTERN MAINE. THIS MAY STILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BUT...OVERALL...
SEVERE THREAT SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY...
STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 1500
J/KG...HAS GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE INFLUX EXISTS
AND LOWER-LEVELS ARE A BIT WARMER.  STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON IN INSTABILITY AXIS AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN/DIMINISH
FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AS
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.

...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU...
A BROAD TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SMALL SCALE IMPULSES...WHICH HAS
SUPPRESSED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING...CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  IN A CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED NEAR/JUST NORTH OF LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...WHERE MIXED LAYER
CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL SUPPORT
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS PRIMARY
THREAT...BUT SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS. 25 TO 30 KT
WESTERLY MID FLOW IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS MOSTLY JUST
NORTH OF ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 
AND...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET NOT PROGGED TO
DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN UNTIL AFTER DARK SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS SEEMS
LIKELY TO REMAIN LIMITED OR RATHER LOCALIZED.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES...
A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES CONTINUES TO PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS SYSTEM IS
TAKING ON AN INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT...BUT STRONGEST FORCING/
DESTABILIZATION APPEARS TO BE COMING FOCUSED NORTH OF THE U.S.
BORDER...ACROSS PARTS OF ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. A FEW STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA...BUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL SEEMS MORE LIMITED/ISOLATED THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.

**FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS CONCERNING ONGOING OR MORE IMMINENT
CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS.

..KERR.. 07/10/2006