[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 101615
SWODY1
SPC AC 101613

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR ERN OH/WRN
PA/WRN NY....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINE....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN
MT....

...OH/WRN PA/WRN NY TODAY...
A COMPACT MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ESEWD OVER SWRN ONTARIO TOWARD
NE OH/NW PA/WRN NY.  THIS MID LEVEL WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE
LOW OVER SWRN ONTARIO...AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WSWWD ACROSS NW
OH AND NRN INDIANA.  DEBRIS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER NE OH/NW PA WILL TEND TO OVERSPREAD WRN NY AND MAY
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.  FARTHER S/SW...STRONGER
SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN LOW-MID 60S WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
OH/WRN PA IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.  THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED
WITH MODEST /30-40 KT/ 0-6 KM SHEAR...SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW BOWING
SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THIS AFTERNOON. 
DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

...MAINE THIS AFTERNOON...
A MID LEVEL WAVE IS EJECTING NEWD FROM NH TOWARD MAINE IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ROUGHLY 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OBSERVED IN THE 12Z GYX SOUNDING WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER
WEAK NEAR THE MID LEVEL WAVE AXIS...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

...WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ARE
MOVING EWD FROM WA TOWARD THE ID PANHANDLE AND WRN MT. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE
HEATING WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES
NEAR 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN MT.  CONVECTION SHOULD
INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN MT...WITH A BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD FROM WRN INTO CENTRAL MT AND WEAKEN LATER
THIS EVENING.  THE RELATIVELY GREATER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW OVER WRN MT MAY SUPPORT A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

...KS/OK AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA ARE MOVING SLOWLY EWD FROM
NRN NM/SRN CO TOWARD KS AND NRN OK.  REGIONAL SOUNDINGS REVEAL MOIST
PROFILES AND MODEST INSTABILITY...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT ERN KS AND MUCH OF MO WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.  THE MOIST/POOR LAPSE RATE PROFILES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
LARGE HAIL FORMATION OR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS...THOUGH A
FEW STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG
SURFACE HEATING ON THE EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUDS AND 25-30 KT FLOW
NEAR 700 MB.  ATTM...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 07/10/2006