[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 101231
SWODY1
SPC AC 101229

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF OHIO...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

WESTERLIES PRIMARILY ACROSS NRN CONUS WITH SEVERAL S/WVS THAT WILL
BE FACTORS IN TODAYS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. COLD UPPER LOW NOW OPENING
AND HEADING NEWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AS NEXT UPPER LOW OVER LAKE
HURON HEADS FOR WRN NY BY THIS EVENING.  S/WV TROUGH WELL DEFINED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOW MOVING ONSHORE PAC NW WILL CROSS NRN ROCKIES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFT NEWD INTO SRN ALBERTA OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER IMPULSE APPROACHES WA COAST BY 12Z TUE.

SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM PRIMARY WLYS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.

WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO WSWWD TO SRN IA INTO SRN NEB
WILL DRIFT SEWD A LITTLE TODAY WITH SLOW WEAKENING.

...NRN ROCKIES...
PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT LIGHTNING NERN OREGON NWD REFLECTS BOTH
MOISTURE AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF S/WV TROUGH THAT
WILL BE CROSSING NRN ROCKIES TODAY.  WITH 35-40KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM...PARAMETERS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR BOTH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS
STORMS INTENSIFY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AHEAD OF TROUGH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OVER AND W OF MTNS IN
PRIMARILY MT.  FURTHER E THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LIMIT BOTH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY...THUS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE EWD OVER THE
PLAINS THIS EVENING.

...NERN U.S...
WHILE ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THRU EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT TODAY WILL BE WITH NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING WRN NY/PA THIS AFTERNOON. COOL AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES WITH WEAKENING UPPER LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS SRN NH POSES MAINLY
A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.

SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD OCCUR THIS AM AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE WRN
NY/PA TO ALLOW AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE FOR A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE
UPPER SUPPORT AND SHEAR THAT WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING
TROUGH NOW OVER LH.  WITH 30-35KT OF SHEAR AND MLCAPES TO AROUND
1000 J/KG STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO CLUSTER AND LINE SEGMENTS BY
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED WIND AND HAIL THREAT.  STORMS
WILL SPREAD EWD PRIOR TO WEAKENING TO BELOW SVR LEVELS THIS EVENING
OVER ERN NY/PA.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
AIR MASS IS NOW VERY MOIST AHEAD OF WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL PLAINS AS NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS HAVE SPREAD NWD INTO SRN
KS/SWRN MO.  WITH RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED
TO WET MICRO BURSTS WHERE STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN AREAS OF GREATEST
AFTERNOON HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. STRONGEST STORMS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE FOCUSED VICINITY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS
ACTIVITY.  BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE LOCATED VICINITY KS/OK BORDER INTO
SWRN MO.  WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING THRU THE 90S ACROSS MUCH
OF OK...MLCAPES WILL CLIMB ABOVE 2000 J/KG S OF BOUNDARIES.  THE
25-30KT OF SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH WET DOWNBURSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN
THE VERY WARM 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -5C.

..HALES/BRIGHT.. 07/10/2006