[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 100556
SWODY1
SPC AC 100554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND
NRN APPALACHIANS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...CNTRL
PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY...

...UPPER OH VALLEY/NRN APPALACHIANS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS WILL LIFT
NEWD THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
NERN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINING NEAR
60 F ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AS TEMPS WARM IN THE LATE
MORNING. THE INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AS THE UPPER-TROUGH
APPROACHES SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND...WRN NY...WRN PA AND NRN OH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON SHOW
THE STRONGEST SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS WRN NY...PA AND NE OH ASSOCIATED
WITH A 40 KT MID-LEVEL JET. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS
A FEW SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/MID-MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY. A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO
NE KS AND SE NEB DURING THE MORNING ALLOWING STRONG SFC HEATING TO
TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F
ACROSS SRN KS...NRN OK AND SWRN MO SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A CAPPING INVERSION
GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH A 40-50
KT MID-LEVEL JET. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELL
LINE SEGMENTS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS....THE WARM AIR ALOFT AND STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT.

...NRN ROCKIES...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND TODAY INTO THE
NRN ROCKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD
OF THE UPPER-TROUGH AND SFC HEATING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE VERTICAL
SHEAR...INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN WEAK DUE TO SFC DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S F. AS A RESULT...ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MARGINAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 07/10/2006