[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 030101
SWODY1
SPC AC 030059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM IA ESEWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM DELMARVA TO NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NRN
HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN ORE AND SRN ID...

...IA ESEWD THROUGH OH VALLEY...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NRN
OH WWD TO THE IA/MO BORDER TO SERN NEB THEN SWWD INTO NRN TO WRN KS.
ERN PART OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH OH AIDED BY A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION. 
THE PART OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER SHOULD LIFT N TOWARD
CENTRAL IA OVERNIGHT.  ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL IND/CENTRAL-NRN
OH INTO WRN PA WHERE THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATELY
UNSTABLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEEP WLY WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT LINE SEGMENTS...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES /35-45
KT/ ALSO SUGGESTING A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS
PARTS OF NRN IND/NRN OH TO WRN PA.

FARTHER W...STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NEWD INTO 
SWRN/CENTRAL IA OVERNIGHT.  DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING
CONVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL WAA IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND NOSE OF LLJ SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP NNEWD
INTO CENTRAL IA/NRN IL...POTENTIALLY REACHING FAR SERN MN/SRN WI. 
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND ELEVATED MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.  IN ADDITION...POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A RATHER SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE.

...DELMARVA TO NEW ENGLAND...
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED SWD FROM MAINE TO THE DELMARVA REGION...
WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NRN MAINE SWWD TO UPSTATE NY. 
THESE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD OVERNIGHT AND
SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY 12Z MONDAY.  EFFECTIVE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS /UNTIL 03 OR 04Z/
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND SWD FROM NJ TO THE DELMARVA REGION.

...PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
ONGOING CLUSTERS OF STORMS ACROSS NERN CO AND WRN NEB SHOULD GROW
UPSCALE INTO ONE OR TWO MCS/S TONIGHT AS A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS.  MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

...ERN ORE/SRN ID...
A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS /1. MOVING INTO WRN ORE AND 2. MOVING
INTO SRN ID/ PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD. 
ASCENT WITH THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN ORE INTO MUCH
OF SRN ID.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR RANGING FROM
35-40 KT WILL AID IN A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...ERN DAKOTAS/MN/NWRN WI/WRN U.P. OF MI...
MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING 50-60 KT WLY JET WILL TRACK FROM
SRN MANITOBA EWD INTO ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.  ASCENT
WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS FORECAST PERIOD ALONG A COLD FRONT
SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/NRN MN.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WEAK INSTABILITY
SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT.

..PETERS.. 07/03/2006