[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 010537
SWODY1
SPC AC 010535

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS TO THE FRONT RANGE...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LAYER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER MS VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL SETTLE INTO ZONE OF LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE
BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SRN
STATES...AND FASTER ZONAL FLOW REGIME EVOLVING ACROSS THE NRN BORDER
STATES. WHILE DYNAMIC FORCING AND DEEPER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD...LIFT ALONG THE TRAILING/WRN
EXTENSION OF THE FRONT...FROM THE MS VALLEY WWD TO THE FRONT
RANGE...WILL BE MAINTAINED AND DIURNALLY ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING.

AN AMALGAMATION OF WEAK SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCES AND WEAK
PERTURBATIONS CAST OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE SRN
STATES FROM FL AND THE GULF ACROSS TX TO THE SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS AND AID SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...
FRONTAL ZONE WILL DEVELOP EWD/SEWD INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS FROM WI/UPPER MI TO LOWER MI AND SWRN ONTARIO. GREATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING ENEWD FROM THE CORN BELT COUPLED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/ AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
FRONT APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND LEAD TO MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS. LINEAR FORCING WITH THE FRONT SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR LINE SEGMENT/BOW ECHO FORMATION WITH THE WIND DAMAGE
THREAT INCREASING FROM WI ACROSS LOWER MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. SUPERCELL TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING INCREASINGLY STRONG
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2
ACROSS WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY/CELL
INTERACTIONS MAY ALSO LOCALLY ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR BRIEF
TORNADOES.

...CNTRL PLAINS TO FRONT RANGE...
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 90S F OVER THE PLAINS
AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM
THE SURFACE THROUGH AT LEAST 3KM AGL. THIS HEATING WILL OCCUR
COINCIDENT WITH AN AXIS OF GREATER MOISTURE BENEATH A STRONG CAP AND
FOCUSED WITHIN THE CONFLUENT/FRONTAL ZONE WHERE MLCAPE MAY LOCALLY
INCREASE TO OVER 2000 J/KG. COMBINATION OF DEEP MIXING AND WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TO OVERCOME INHIBITION AND RESULT IN
SCATTERED VIGOROUS LATE DAY THROUGH EVENING TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL ARE
EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH...FARTHER WEST...MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW
AND SOMEWHAT GREATER LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW
HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS FROM WRN NEB TO
THE FRONT RANGE.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
STRONG HEATING OF VERY MOIST/WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS MAY AGAIN LEAD
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE SEA
BREEZE. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WET MICROBURSTS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE BASED ON
STEEP THETAE LAPSE RATES AND FORECAST DCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG.

...AZ...
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM PAST FEW DAYS AND
SHOULD AGAIN SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER ELY FLOW ON THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL AGAIN STEER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
WWD/SWWD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS WITH ATTENDANT ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
THREAT.

...TX...
COOL POCKET ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH ORPHANED AND NEARLY STATIONARY MID
LEVEL VORTEX WILL AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL TX AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. DESPITE WEAK FLOW/SHEAR...MODEST INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIAL FOR WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELY
WAVE...IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE TX GULF COAST AND
COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF ISOLATED WET DOWNBURSTS...OR A
BRIEF TORNADO/WATERSPOUT.

...ORE..
UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS MAY AGAIN PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW POTENT STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL ACROSS CASCADES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DRIFT EAST ACROSS RELATIVELY
DEEP/DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS.

..CARBIN/GUYER.. 07/01/2006