[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 280017
SWODY1
SPC AC 280016

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2006

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF INK 45 SSW
LBB 45 WNW PVW 15 S SPD LAA 10 NNW ITR 15 E MCK BIE SZL HRO LFK NIR
25 SW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N UIL 25 N AST 20
NNE ONP 45 N 4BK 40 W CEC.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST...MODELS INDICATE VIGOROUS DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE...
EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES...WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE.  SYSTEM ALREADY APPEARS TO BE TURNING EAST OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...AND IS PROGGED TO COME INCREASINGLY IN PHASE WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
ROCKIES LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

DEVELOPING UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE RAPID
RETURN OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.  BOUNDARY
LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS STILL IN THE RECOVERY
PROCESS FROM A PRIOR FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO THIS RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE IS RATHER WEAK.  THIS IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT OVERNIGHT.

HOWEVER...WITH LOWER/MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS ALREADY PRESENT IN A
TONGUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN/WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...MOISTURE SHOULD
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES TONIGHT.

...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL...BUT FORCING/
DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET HAS CONTRIBUTED
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP
EASTWARD TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST STORMS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUSED
NEAR SPEED MAXIMUM...WHICH IS PROGGED TO NOSE INTO THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY SOMETIME AFTER 28/06Z. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND AS STORMS BEGIN TO INGEST
BETTER RETURN FLOW /REFLECTED BY 60F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS/ CAPE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL
THREAT.

MUCH STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH POLAR TROUGH/JET STREAK IS
EXPECTED TO COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER MOISTURE RETURN FARTHER TO THE
NORTH. THIS COULD SUPPORT INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION BY 28/03-06Z. 
HOWEVER...MORE NOTABLE INCREASE IN DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE MAY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL THE 28/06-09Z TIME FRAME...FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE IN
EXCESS OF 500 J/KG FOR PARCELS BASED IN MOIST LAYER ABOVE SURFACE/
NEAR SURFACE INVERSION.  THIS LIKELY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SMALL
HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS...WHICH COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED
SEVERE CRITERIA.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH...ENVIRONMENT ALONG COASTAL AREAS WILL
BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE LATE TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC
STRUCTURE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL SOMETIME
AFTER 28/12Z.

..KERR.. 01/28/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM