[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 261657
SWODY1
SPC AC 261619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE
1019 AM CST THU JAN 26 2006

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CLM 35 SSW OLM
40 NW SLE 30 WNW ONP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TIME AS A
DEEP TROUGH MOVES E OF NEW ENGLAND...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM
THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY...AND A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.  AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN CO THIS
MORNING WILL EJECT NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 48 N AND 135 W
WILL MOVE INLAND OVER WA/ORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

VERY WEAK MID LEVEL BUOYANCY EXISTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WRN CO
TROUGH...AS WELL AS OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A SRN
STREAM TROUGH THAT IS MOVING NEWD.  STILL...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH TIME AS BOTH SYSTEMS
MOVE AWAY FROM THEIR ORIGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCES.  LATE
TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
INVOF THE BIG BEND...WITHIN A DEEPENING MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME
SPREADING NEWD FROM MEXICO.  THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF AN OUTLOOK AREA IN LATER UPDATES.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA REVEAL SOME
CONVECTION/VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST.  THIS SYSTEM IS NEAR PEAK
AMPLITUDE AND CONVECTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO FAR...THUS THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WA/NW OREGON COASTS
APPEARS TO BE QUITE MARGINAL THIS EVENING.

..AFWA.. 01/26/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.