[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 210535
SWODY1
SPC AC 210533

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S PSX 10 W SAT 20
WNW JCT 35 NNE SJT 60 SW SPS 15 WSW ADM 30 NE PRX 30 ESE ELD 20 NNW
JAN 30 E MEI 35 NNW MGM 15 E LGC 25 SSW MCN 10 SSW ABY 55 SE PNS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GULF COAST STATES...

SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF EJECTING UPPER SPEED MAX. 
THIS WILL FORCE SFC FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WHILE SFC
CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED FARTHER WEST ALONG TRAILING BOUNDARY
ALONG THE TX COAST LATE.

IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST REGION BEFORE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS
AND BEGINS TO FOCUS MUCH FARTHER WEST IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  IT APPEARS DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED
EARLY IN THE PERIOD JUST OFF THE LA COAST INTO SRN MS. WITH TIME
WARM ADVECTION IN RESPONSE TO NM/NRN MEXICO SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
AID DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN TX.  AFTER DARK LLJ
WILL INCREASE OVER CNTRL TX AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE THAN
ADEQUATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. PARCELS LIFTED NEAR...OR EVEN ABOVE 700 MB...WILL
YIELD AT LEAST SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE.  GIVEN THE STRONG WARM
ADVECTION REGIME...AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THIS
REGION MAINLY AFTER 00Z...THEN SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 01/21/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM