[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 090542
SWODY1
SPC AC 090541

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST SUN JAN 08 2006

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E BRO 20 SE NIR 25
ENE AUS 25 SSE DUA 20 SW RKR 40 W CHA 15 NE GAD 15 NE 0A8 40 ENE JAN
20 NNE HEZ 40 ESE POE 60 S LCH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE COUNTRY ON
MONDAY.  AS THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING THE MIDWEST RAPIDLY
TRANSLATES INTO THE NERN STATES EARLY TODAY...A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL GET LEFT BEHIND...CLOSING OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SRN PLAINS.  THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY TURN E TOWARD THE LWR MS
VLY LATE MON NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM NRN STREAM IMPULSE DROPS
TOWARD THE PAC NW.  

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDWEST UPPER
DISTURBANCE...WILL SETTLE SWD ACROSS THE TN VLY AND SRN PLAINS
MONDAY.  ERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION BY MONDAY AFTN.  AS THIS
LOW TRACKS EWD TOWARD NRN LA BY 12Z TUE...WRN PORTIONS OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SEWD OFF THE TX COAST.
 
...ERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
MODIFY MONDAY. BY AFTN...SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREE F INLAND TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE UPPER TX/LA
COASTS.  MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WHERE HEATING IS THE STRONGEST. BUT... MODEST CAP NOTED IN
00Z/10 SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST...PRECLUDING SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING.

MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE
IN THE AFTN WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR ACROSS THE LWR TN VLY...AND MON
NIGHT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION WHERE MID-LEVEL PROFILES COOL AND
UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SPREAD SEWD.
 TSTMS WILL THEN DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE DEEP S AND
SEWD ACROSS ERN TX AND WRN/NRN LA BY EARLY TUE. 

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT MUCAPES WILL REMAIN WEAK AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MARGINAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS.

..RACY.. 01/09/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM