[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 070551
SWODY1
SPC AC 070549

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CST FRI JAN 06 2006

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI EAT ALW BKE
BNO 70 S RDM EUG 35 SW ONP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO FALL ACROSS MOST OF WRN CONUS AS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES...THOUGH MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
ERN STATES THROUGH PERIOD.  NET RESULT SHOULD BE BROAD FETCH OF
WNWLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF CONUS...STREAMLINES AND ISOHYPSES BENT
SOMEWHAT BY SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING EWD ACROSS GREAT PLAINS AND BY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE PACIFIC NW.

LATTER PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF
135-142W...W OF BC/WA/ORE -- IS FCST TO REMAIN NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
SRN PORTION MOVES ACROSS COASTAL WA/ORE FROM MIDAFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. SHORT-RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FROM 07/00Z AND
MOST 06/21Z SPECTRAL/ETA/WRF MEMBERS OF SREF SUITE ARE IN REMARKABLE
AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL TIMING/PATH OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH
DAY-1...CONSIDERING ITS LOCATION IN RELATIVE OBSERVATIONAL DATA
VOID.

...WA/ORE...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED -- MAINLY IN AN
AFTERNOON/EVENING EPISODE CORRESPONDING TO PEAK IN LOW-MIDLEVEL
INSTABILITY INDUCED BY SEVERAL DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS. 
COMBINATION OF DPVA ALOFT AND ASCENT UNDER LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER
JET MAX WILL SHIFT INLAND JUST AHEAD OF TROUGH.  ON IR
IMAGERY...DEEP CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ATTM FROM 44W-46W WITHIN
BAROCLINIC CLOUD BAND...AND SHALLOW BUT GLACIATED
CELLULAR/MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY EXISTS FARTHER W BEHIND FRONT AND
BENEATH LIKELY MIDLEVEL THERMAL MIN.  RELATED COOLING WILL STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL BUOYANCY OVER THUNDER
OUTLOOK AREA...FROM WNW-ESE WITH TIME. INLAND...PEAK OF DIURNAL
HEATING ALSO WILL CONTRIBUTE SLIGHTLY TO DESTABILIZATION.
MODIFIED ETA-KF SOUNDINGS INDICATE ESSENTIALLY UNINHIBITED MUCAPES
200-300 J/KG MUCAPES -- SFC-BASED OR NEARLY SO -- SPREADING INLAND
THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CONCORDANCE WITH STRONGEST
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT.

..EDWARDS.. 01/07/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM