From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 1 00:48:27 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 31 Dec 2005 19:48:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601010050.k010o6ei004799@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010043 SWODY1 SPC AC 010042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CST SAT DEC 31 2005 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW BLI 25 SSW SEA 30 SE SLE 15 S MFR 30 ENE MHS 50 S REO 35 N EKO 50 NNE ELY 50 N P38 55 NNE DRA 45 ESE BIH 20 WNW FAT 30 S SFO 60 W SFO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PACIFIC COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN OUT AND MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING IN CNTRL CA AND ERN NV TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. FURTHER WEST IN THE ERN PACIFIC...ANOTHER UPPER-TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS A RESULT...A STRONG BAND OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF ORE AND WA LIKELY RESULTING IN A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COMBINATIONS SHOULD BE TOO MARGINAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS. ..BROYLES.. 01/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 1 05:58:56 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 00:58:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601010600.k0160ZLL015683@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010558 SWODY1 SPC AC 010556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CST SAT DEC 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW GZH 30 SSE MEI 40 SW CBM 15 SSW MKL 25 ENE PAH 25 NNE EVV 25 NNW SDF 25 W LEX 35 NNE CSV 35 NNE ATL 15 WNW MCN 20 NNW ABY 20 WSW DHN 30 WSW GZH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLM 25 N SLE 10 W MHS 35 E SJC 35 NE SBA 50 S LGB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ERI 20 NW LBE 45 NNW SSU 25 S BLF 40 N CAE 55 ESE SAV ...CONT... 30 ESE SGJ 35 SSE OCF 45 WSW PIE ...CONT... 50 S BVE 40 W JAN 25 SSW POF 15 SSE SPI 45 NE MKE 20 SSW HTL 40 NE MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY... ...GULF COAST/TN VALLEY/OH VALLEY... A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN US WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS STATES TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON. ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION/SFC HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE NEWD INTO SCNTRL AL AND SWRN GA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY HAVE ACCESS TO MID 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL THROUGH. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTING A FEW SUPERCELLS OR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP ALLOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TO INITIATE. A CLUSTER OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT FROM NE MS ACROSS WRN TN IN NRN AL. INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRONG SHEAR AS A MID-LEVEL JET BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. DISCRETE CELLS WILL HAVE AN ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL AS THE STORMS QUICKLY MOVE NEWD ACROSS CNTRL TN AND NRN AL. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WRN KY AND SRN IND AS THE 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THAT REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAKER...THE STRONG ASCENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 70 KT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES ENEWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. ...PACIFIC COAST... A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST TONIGHT WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF CA...ORE AND WA. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 01/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 1 12:40:02 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 07:40:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601011241.k01CffJJ011537@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011239 SWODY1 SPC AC 011237 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 AM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HUM 25 E BTR 35 W MEI 15 SSW MKL 25 ENE PAH 25 NNE EVV 25 NNW SDF 25 W LEX 35 NNE CSV 35 NNE ATL 15 WNW MCN 55 WSW VDI 15 NNE VLD 35 E AAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLM 25 ENE PDX 25 E MHS MER BFL 50 S LGB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SGJ 35 SSE OCF 45 WSW PIE ...CONT... 50 SSE 7R4 40 N HEZ 30 WNW CGI 10 NE UIN 25 WNW JVL 15 ENE DTW ...CONT... 30 NW ERI 20 NW LBE 45 NNW SSU 25 S BLF CLT 20 SSW CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND INTO THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS... ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... SRN STREAM IMPULSE...WELL DEFINED ON WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE TX COAST...WILL CONTINUE EJECTING ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S OFFSHORE ATTM...AND MODELS LIFT UPPER 60F/LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO SERN LA/SRN MS/SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CERTAIN HOW FAR NWD COASTAL BOUNDARY/TRUE MARINE LAYER WILL DEVELOP TODAY...THOUGH 09Z RUC DEPICTS THIS BOUNDARY OVER FAR SRN GA WNWWD INTO SRN/CENTRAL MS AT 21Z. THEREFORE...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD BECOME COLLOCATED AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM INTO AT LEAST SERN LA...FAR SRN MS/AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY 18Z...AND SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHO STRUCTURES UNDER 40-50 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM SYSTEM. THEREFORE...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AS AFTERNOON HEATING ALLOWS STORMS TO ROOT INTO VERY MOIST...MARINE AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF COASTAL FRONT. LATE IN THE PERIOD...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/SUPERCELL THREAT MAY INCREASE AGAIN OVER THIS AREA AHEAD OF DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND ANY NIGHTTIME STORMS WILL POSE AT LEAST A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND TORNADOES. ...OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS... DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. GULF MOISTURE RETURN IS ALREADY UNDERWAY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LEADING EDGE OF 60F ISODROSOTHERM OVER ERN TX/SRN AR/CENTRAL MS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION NWD INTO MUCH OF THE MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY UNDER SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS STRONG/DEEP ASCENT EJECTS ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER A LARGE AREA WITHIN MOISTENING WARM SECTOR AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MUCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION. IN ADDITION... EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 45-50 KT WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FROM STRONGER STORMS. AS SURFACE THETA-E AND DEEP ASCENT INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT...STORMS MAY ROOT NEARER THE SURFACE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO THREATS. ..EVANS.. 01/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 1 16:37:30 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 11:37:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601011639.k01Gd8NF019505@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011636 SWODY1 SPC AC 011634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 AM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S HUM 30 NNW MSY 30 E JAN 40 WSW UOX 60 NE PBF 15 N BVX 40 ESE TBN 30 WNW STL DEC 20 W IND 55 W LUK 35 SE SDF 35 NNE CSV 30 N ATL 15 WNW MCN 55 WSW VDI 15 NNE VLD 45 SE AAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SGJ 30 NW AGR 40 WSW APF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S 7R4 45 N HEZ 30 ESE RUE 15 NE HRO 20 NE SZL 40 ENE OTM 20 NNE DBQ 15 ENE MSN 40 W MKG 30 SW LAN 40 W CLE 20 NE PKB 25 SE CRW 45 ENE TRI 30 SW CLT 30 SSE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLM 20 NW PDX 40 SW MFR 45 E EKA 25 NE UKI 40 WSW MER 40 WSW BFL 30 S OXR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.... ...N CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST TODAY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ENEWD OVER SRN LA. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE OVER SE LA/MS/AL TODAY. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING NWD/INLAND OVER LA...SRN MS/AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY...BENEATH 7-7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT DESTABILIZATION INLAND TODAY WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS AND NWD MOISTURE ADVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR AND N OF THE WARM FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE BY ROUGHLY MIDDAY FROM SE LA TO SRN AL...AND THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EWD. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...PORTIONS OF MID MS/LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS TONIGHT... A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS EWD/ENEWD TO THE MS VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SW KS TO NE MO. A RELATIVELY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME AND A SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS UNLIKELY ALONG THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE ACROSS ERN TX/WRN AR THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE TONIGHT NEAR AND E OF THE MS RIVER AND WITHIN THE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME THAT WILL SPREAD NWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 50 KT LLJ. STRONG L0W-MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR AND MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DESPITE A SLIGHTLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RICH MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ...PAC COAST TODAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY... THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH AN INTENSE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD/INLAND OVER THE NW CA/ORE/WA COASTS TODAY. SUBSTANTIAL LIGHTNING AND ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED JUST OFF THE NW CA/SW ORE COASTS...IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH EXTREMELY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN WHILE ENCOUNTERING THE RELATIVELY DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR MASS THAT IS BEING MAINTAINED ALONG THE COAST BY SELY/OFFSHORE FLOW. ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA COAST WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE TSTM THREAT EARLY MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH NEAR 135 W APPROACHES THE COAST. ..THOMPSON.. 01/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 1 20:04:25 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 15:04:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601012006.k01K62Md028677@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 012002 SWODY1 SPC AC 012001 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0201 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E BVE HUM 30 NW MSY 15 W MEI 35 WSW CBM 25 NNE MEM 30 S FAM 25 E VIH 20 WSW JEF 35 NW COU 30 ESE IRK 25 NE UIN 35 ENE BMI LAF 20 E IND 35 N SDF 45 E BWG 25 NNW CHA 15 NE RMG 15 ESE ATL 15 E MCN 50 WSW VDI 25 W AYS 35 ESE VLD 20 N CTY 25 WSW CTY 65 SW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE MLB 10 ESE AGR 45 S SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLM 20 NW PDX 40 SW MFR 45 E EKA 25 NE UKI 20 ENE SFO 40 ESE MRY 20 SSW VBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S LCH 35 N LFT 50 NNE HEZ 55 WSW MEM 30 W UNO 40 NNW SGF 25 SSE OJC 35 NE STJ 25 SW OXV 20 WSW CID 30 WSW DBQ 40 E RAC 50 WNW CLE 25 W HLG 45 ENE CRW 25 ESE TRI 20 SW HKY 25 N FLO 15 NE CRE 35 ESE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...GULF COAST TO TN VALLEY... WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE NCNTRL GULF COAST WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY BEING ENHANCED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE NOW PASSING OVER SERN LA. ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION CURRENTLY APPEARS DISTINCT FROM THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE POWERFUL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS IMPULSE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATER TODAY. WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/ WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WITHIN WEST-TO-EAST BAND FROM SRN LA/MS ACROSS AL/SRN GA AND NRN FL. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40KT...AND RELATIVELY LIMITED INHIBITION COULD LEAD TO A FEW ROTATING STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH A CHANCE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND. SEE LATEST SWOMCD NUMBER 0003 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ...LOWER OH VALLEY/MIDWEST TO TN VALLEY LATE... POWERFUL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING EAST FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH 80-90KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS EAST TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. VERY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT AND PROMOTE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AFTER DARK. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL OVERSPREAD LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS FROM MIDDLE TN TO THE MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT. STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...AND EMBEDDED WITHIN EVOLVING COMMA-HEAD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. WIND/TORNADO THREAT OVERNIGHT IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS. GREATER CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR APPEARS TO BE IN VICINITY OF RETREATING WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ..CARBIN.. 01/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 01:02:08 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 20:02:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601020103.k0213jSw022380@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020101 SWODY1 SPC AC 020100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S BVE 30 ESE PIB 20 NW MEI 20 SE UOX 25 NNW MEM 20 ENE UNO 15 W VIH 40 SSW UIN 20 SSE BMI 30 WNW IND 50 SE IND 10 N LEX 30 NW TYS 30 SSE ATL 15 W MGR 55 SSE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLM 20 NW PDX 40 SW MFR 45 E EKA 25 NE UKI 20 ENE SFO 40 ESE MRY 20 SSW VBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE MLB 10 ESE AGR 45 S SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW HUM 20 SSE MCB 20 W JAN 30 NNE GLH 45 ENE LIT 30 NNE HRO 10 E MKC 35 WNW CDJ 15 NE OXV 30 SW DBQ 40 E RAC 50 WNW CLE 25 W HLG 45 ENE CRW 25 ESE TRI 20 SW HKY 25 N FLO 15 NE CRE 35 ESE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY... ...GULF COAST... A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS ONGOING ACROSS SRN AL...SW GA AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THE DEVELOPING MCS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING SWRN AL EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY. THE ACTIVITY IS JUST NORTH OF A 55 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE STRONG SHEAR IS CONFIRMED BY REGIONAL 88D VAD WIND PROFILES SHOWING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KTS. THIS COMBINED WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP A SUPERCELL THREAT GOING THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING WITH A ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT. AS THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES ACROSS SRN GA LATE THIS EVENING...A DECREASE IN INSTABILITY TO THE EAST SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. ...OH AND TN VALLEYS... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL CONTINUE A QUICK EWD PROGRESSION INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. THE RIGHT SIDE OF AN 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH THE REGION CAUSING A FOCUSED BAND OF INTENSE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING IN WRN MO AND THESE MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT IN THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS FROM SRN IL SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY. SEVERAL LARGE CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDING ACROSS THE REGION AT 09Z SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES INCREASING TO 60 KT WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER INSTABILITY. LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP CONTINUING THROUGH DAYBREAK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. ...WEST COAST... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE ERN PACIFIC...ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF WA AND ORE. THIS FIRST TROUGH WILL LIFT NWD AS ANOTHER LARGER TROUGH DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE PACIFIC COAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF CA...ORE AND WA. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 01/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 06:01:59 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 01:01:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601020603.k0263aJf029633@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020601 SWODY1 SPC AC 020559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW PNS 20 WNW SEM 20 N HSV 20 ENE BNA 30 E BWG 25 SW LEX 25 ESE LEX 15 WNW JKL 15 SSW JKL 45 SSE LOZ 25 NNE TYS 15 SW TYS 40 E CHA 30 N ATL 35 SSW AHN 40 SSE AHN 40 SE AHN 40 N AGS 35 SE CLT 35 SW SOP 35 NNE FLO 20 ENE FLO CHS 25 NNE SSI 20 NNE CTY 45 WSW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE BVE 40 NE BVE 35 E PIB 30 SSW CBM 20 ENE MKL 20 NW EVV 20 W IND 40 ENE MIE 15 NNE CMH PKB 35 E CRW 15 WNW BLF 15 NNW AVL 25 SW AVL 25 W GSP SPA 35 E HKY 15 ENE DAN 20 NE AVC 40 WSW ORF 30 NW HSE 50 SSW HSE ...CONT... 30 ESE SGJ 30 WSW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 35 SSW OLM 50 S EUG 35 ESE MHS 40 NW RNO 20 N NFL 40 NNW P68 30 WNW U24 50 SE U24 45 NW U17 40 ENE GCN 25 N PRC 35 N BLH 15 SE RAL 35 SSW OXR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S HUM 15 ESE JAN 10 NNE MEM 25 SSE POF 40 ENE VIH 25 N COU 20 NNW CDJ 10 SW SDA 35 E OLU 20 W SUX 15 S OTG MKT 30 NNE VOK 35 WNW MBS 30 NE MTC ...CONT... 25 NW ERI 20 N DUJ 10 ENE AOO 15 ESE HGR 20 ESE BWI 25 SSW DOV 50 ESE SBY ...CONT... 45 NNE MLB 50 W FMY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS GULF COAST STATES...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS... ...AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE/TN AND OH VALLEYS/CAROLINAS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM ERN KS ACROSS OK INTO EAST TX. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY THIS MORNING...A 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WITH LOW TO MID 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE OH RIVER. AN IMPRESSIVE SPLIT MID-LEVEL JET WILL NOSE NEWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING ENHANCING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. AS A RESULT...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH SEVERAL MCS CLUSTERS DEVELOPING AND DRIFTING EWD FROM THE OH RIVER SWD TO ERN MS AND AL. STORMS WILL ORGANIZE ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOIST AXIS AS A DRY SLOT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL FORECASTS RAPIDLY STEEPEN LAPSE RATES BY DAYBREAK JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND ERN AL. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE ONGOING EAST OF THE MOIST AXIS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES SHOULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT AS AN MCS DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LONG TRACK TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL AL...SWRN AND CNTRL GA AND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE ESPECIALLY FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS FORECAST TO BE THE STRONGEST. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD DURING THE DAY...NAM AND GFS FORECASTS DEVELOP A CONVECTIVE LINE FROM THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS INTO CNTRL GA AND SE AL. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EWD...WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DEEP LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ENHANCED WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES AS THE LINE ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE SC...GA AND NRN FL. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD EXPAND EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...GA AND FL DURING THE EVENING GRADUALLY ALLOWING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO DECREASE AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. ...PACIFIC COAST... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ORGANIZE AND APPROACH THE WEST COAST TODAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MID-DAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOCUSING EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE IN CA...NV AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 01/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 06:15:05 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 01:15:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601020616.k026GeS7032560@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020614 SWODY1 SPC AC 020613 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW PNS 20 WNW SEM 20 N HSV 20 ENE BNA 30 E BWG 25 SW LEX 25 ESE LEX 15 WNW JKL 15 SSW JKL 45 SSE LOZ 25 NNE TYS 15 SW TYS 40 E CHA 30 N ATL 35 SSW AHN 40 SSE AHN 40 SE AHN 40 N AGS 35 SE CLT 35 SW SOP 35 NNE FLO 20 ENE FLO CHS 25 NNE SSI 20 NNE CTY 45 WSW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE BVE 40 NE BVE 35 E PIB 30 SSW CBM 20 ENE MKL 20 NW EVV 20 W IND 40 ENE MIE 15 NNE CMH PKB 35 E CRW 15 WNW BLF 15 NNW AVL 25 SW AVL 25 W GSP SPA 35 E HKY 15 ENE DAN 20 NE AVC 40 WSW ORF 30 NW HSE 50 SSW HSE ...CONT... 30 ESE SGJ 30 WSW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 35 SSW OLM 50 S EUG 35 ESE MHS 40 NW RNO 20 N NFL 40 NNW P68 30 WNW U24 50 SE U24 45 NW U17 40 ENE GCN 25 N PRC 35 N BLH 15 SE RAL 35 SSW OXR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S HUM 15 ESE JAN 10 NNE MEM 25 SSE POF 40 ENE VIH 25 N COU 20 NNW CDJ 10 SW SDA 35 E OLU 20 W SUX 15 S OTG MKT 30 NNE VOK 35 WNW MBS 30 NE MTC ...CONT... 25 NW ERI 20 N DUJ 10 ENE AOO 15 ESE HGR 20 ESE BWI 25 SSW DOV 50 ESE SBY ...CONT... 45 NNE MLB 50 W FMY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS... CORRECTED FOR HAIL...WIND DAMAGE PROBABILITY GRAPHICS ...AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE/TN AND OH VALLEYS/CAROLINAS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM ERN KS ACROSS OK INTO EAST TX. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY THIS MORNING...A 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WITH LOW TO MID 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE OH RIVER. AN IMPRESSIVE SPLIT MID-LEVEL JET WILL NOSE NEWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING ENHANCING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. AS A RESULT...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH SEVERAL MCS CLUSTERS DEVELOPING AND DRIFTING EWD FROM THE OH RIVER SWD TO ERN MS AND AL. STORMS WILL ORGANIZE ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOIST AXIS AS A DRY SLOT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL FORECASTS RAPIDLY STEEPEN LAPSE RATES BY DAYBREAK JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND ERN AL. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE ONGOING EAST OF THE MOIST AXIS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES SHOULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT AS AN MCS DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LONG TRACK TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL AL...SWRN AND CNTRL GA AND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE ESPECIALLY FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS FORECAST TO BE THE STRONGEST. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD DURING THE DAY...NAM AND GFS FORECASTS DEVELOP A CONVECTIVE LINE FROM THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS INTO CNTRL GA AND SE AL. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EWD...WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DEEP LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ENHANCED WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES AS THE LINE ADVANCES EWD ACROSS SC...GA AND NRN FL. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD EXPAND EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...GA AND FL DURING THE EVENING GRADUALLY ALLOWING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO DECREASE AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. ...PACIFIC COAST... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ORGANIZE AND APPROACH THE WEST COAST TODAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MID-DAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOCUSING EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE IN CA...NV AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 01/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 12:38:29 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 07:38:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601021240.k02Ce37Y027301@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021238 SWODY1 SPC AC 021237 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW PNS 30 NW PNS 25 NNE GZH 20 WNW AUO 30 S ATL 45 ESE AHN 35 NNE CAE FLO 35 WSW CRE 30 SSE AYS 65 ESE AAF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BVE 50 ESE MEI 15 NW TCL 10 SSW MEM 30 W POF 25 E UIN 15 WNW PIA 25 W FWA 30 N CMH 10 N PKB 35 E CRW 15 WNW BLF 15 NNW AVL 25 SW AVL 25 W GSP SPA 35 E HKY 15 ENE DAN 20 NE AVC 40 WSW ORF 30 NW HSE 50 SSW HSE ...CONT... 30 ESE SGJ 30 WSW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 35 SSW OLM 50 S EUG 35 ESE MHS 40 NW RNO 35 SE NFL 40 SW ELY 40 NW MLF 40 ESE MLF 25 NW PGA 40 ENE GCN 25 N PRC 35 N BLH 15 SE RAL 35 SSW OXR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW ERI 20 N DUJ 10 ENE AOO 15 ESE HGR 20 ESE BWI 25 SSW DOV 50 ESE SBY ...CONT... 45 NNE MLB 50 W FMY ...CONT... 60 S HUM 20 ESE MEI 25 SW CBM 45 WSW MEM 15 ENE UNO 25 N COU 25 SW OTM 20 SSW ALO 35 S LSE 10 WSW MTW 35 WNW MBS 30 NE MTC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NERN GULF COAST TO ERN SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE MS/OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO ERN NC... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY AHEAD OF POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS MO/AR/LA. GULF MOISTURE RETURN IS EVIDENT EAST OF THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND WEST OF THE TN RIVER VALLEY WITH LOWER 60+ F SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW IN PLACE. SURFACE LOW NOW MOVING INTO NERN MO WILL TRACK EWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN IND BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND LIFTING NWD NORTH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY. FATHER SOUTH...WEDGE FRONT HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM CENTRAL SC INTO CENTRAL GA...AIDED BY EXTENSIVE AREA OF OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO SRN GA. SECONDARY WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEFINING LEADING EDGE OF RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS E-W ACROSS SRN GA INTO SERN/CENTRAL AL. ...MID SOUTH ACROSS THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS... ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF A BROKEN SQUALL LINE CONTINUES AT 12Z ALONG THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF STRONG AND DEEP LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND SHIFT STEADILY EWD INTO A DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. DESPITE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES UNDER SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS AOA 40 KT ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHOES...WITH ADDITIONAL TORNADO POTENTIAL GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITHIN BACKED SURFACE WIND FIELDS AHEAD OF NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SRN/CENTRAL IL/IND AND SWRN OH TODAY...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY BUILDING SWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL KY AND TN BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AND SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO THE CAROLINAS... COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...DUE TO EXTENSIVE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN BROAD LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME OVER MUCH OF GA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP ENOUGH FOR MODEST ELEVATED CAPE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES THIS MORNING. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S REMAIN IN PLACE SOUTH OF COASTAL FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING E-W ACROSS SRN GA AND THEN EXTENDING NWWD INTO CENTRAL AL. AS STRONG SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED DEEP ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE SRN APPALACHIANS...PRIMARY WARM FRONT MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED NEARER CURRENT WEDGE FRONT INTO CENTRAL GA/SC DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD ALLOW A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SERN AL AND CENTRAL GA/SC. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD THIS ENTIRE REGION AS 90 KT H5 JET DIGS ACROSS MS THIS AFTERNOON AND NOSES ACROSS NRN FL OVERNIGHT. 12Z TLH SOUNDING SUGGESTS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD GREATLY INCREASE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE/SRN GA DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING WITH WEAK INHIBITION...MODERATE MLCAPE...AND VERY STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE PRIMARY WARM FRONT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS. STORM-MOTION VECTORS ARE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN STRONG ELY COMPONENT AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AS STORMS MOVE ALONG EXPECTED E-W SURFACE FRONT. SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING TORNADOES...WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE RETURNS. ..EVANS.. 01/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 16:53:29 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 11:53:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601021655.k02Gt2AE026489@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021652 SWODY1 SPC AC 021650 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW PFN 20 ENE CEW TOI 10 W AUO 35 WNW MCN 25 WNW AGS 25 NE CAE FLO 40 SW CRE 20 N CTY 55 SSE TLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SGJ 30 WSW PIE ...CONT... 30 WSW BVE 50 ESE MEI 30 NNW TCL 35 ESE MEM 20 E PAH 10 S MTO 30 NE PIA 30 WSW FWA 30 N CMH 10 N PKB 35 E CRW 15 WNW BLF 15 NNW AVL 20 SW AVL 25 W GSP 15 SE SPA 35 E HKY 15 ENE DAN 20 NE AVC 40 WSW ORF 30 NW HSE 50 SSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE MLB 50 W FMY ...CONT... 60 S HUM 30 SE MEI 20 SSE CBM 10 NW UOX 25 WSW PAH 40 NE VIH 10 ENE UIN 20 ENE MLI 35 S LSE 10 WSW MTW 35 WNW MBS 30 NE MTC ...CONT... 25 NW ERI 20 N DUJ 10 ENE AOO 15 ESE HGR 20 ESE BWI 25 SSW DOV 50 ESE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 35 SSW OLM 50 S EUG 35 ESE MHS 40 NW RNO 35 SE NFL 40 SW ELY 40 NW MLF 40 ESE MLF 25 NW PGA 40 ENE GCN 25 N PRC 35 N BLH 15 SE RAL 35 SSW OXR. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE...SERN AL...GA...SRN/ERN SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM NRN FL NWWD TO SRN INDIANA/SRN OH/ERN IL...AND MUCH OF CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES PRIMARY TROUGHS INITIALLY OFFSHORE CA AND OVER MS VALLEY. PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH LATTER FEATURE -- EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA OVER NRN MO -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY...REACHING VICINITY TN/VA BORDER BY 3/12Z. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE -- INITIALLY OVER WRN IL -- WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN OH AND WEAKEN AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS GETS UNDERWAY OVER TIDEWATER REGION OF VA/NC. MEANWHILE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS REGION THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. TROUGH OFFSHORE CA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN CA. OTHERWISE SEE GEOGRAPHIC SECTIONS BELOW FOR PERTINENT SFC FEATURES. ...SERN CONUS... REF WW 5 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFORMATION REGARDING BAND OF STRONG-SVR TSTMS CURRENTLY FROM SWRN GA ACROSS FL PANHANDLE. SFC...925 AND 850 MB ANALYSES SHOW MARKED ZONE OF RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE SFC AIR OVER SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS NEWD...WRN BOUNDARY OF WHICH IS RETREATING SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS NERN AL/NWRN GA. SERN EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS SHOULD DRIFT NWD OVER ERN GA AND SRN SC AHEAD OF MAIN ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND. WAA AND DIABATIC HEATING WILL AID NEWD EROSION OF COLD AIR WEDGE OVER GA AND EVENTUALLY SC...POSSIBLY INTO SRN/WRN NC THIS EVENING. TORNADO AND WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE STRONGLY TIED TO EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF ASSOCIATED SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION...HENCE DECREASE IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES NEWD ACROSS REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL AND BOW POTENTIAL BOTH IN EXISTING CONVECTIVE BAND AND IN DESTABILIZING AIR MASS FARTHER W...ALTHOUGH VEERING WIND PROFILE RESULT IN STRAIGHTER HODOGRAPHS AND SMALLER PROJECTED SRH BETWEEN EXISTING CONVECTIVE BAND AND SFC COLD FRONT. DEEP-LAYER SHEARS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS GA/CAROLINAS WITH TIME THROUGH TONIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APCHS...AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT STRENGTHEN. SHEAR/VORTICITY ALSO WILL BE ENHANCED INVOF RETREATING WEDGE/FRONT...FURTHER AIDING TORNADO POTENTIAL ON MESOSCALE. GIVEN SHEAR PROFILES...ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO. ...OH VALLEY REGION... SFC WARM FRONT IS EVIDENT FROM NERN AL NNWWD ACROSS CENTRAL KY TO SWRN AL...INTERSECTING SQUALL LINE INVOF SRN PORTION IL/INDIANA BORDER. EXPECT WARM FRONT TO RETREAT ENEWD ACROSS TN/KY AND SRN INDIANA THROUGH AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE CONVECTIVE BAND NOW OVER THIS REGION THROUGH MUCH OF AFTERNOON. REF SPC WWS 4 AND 6...AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS -- FOR NEAR-TERM INFO. NEAR-FRONTAL TSTM BAND SHOULD GRADUALLY OVERTAKE EWD MOVING WARM FRONT OVER OH VALLEY THROUGH 00Z...RESULTING IN SFC-BASED INSTABILITY DECREASING WITH TIME AND FROM N-S IN INFLOW LAYER. MEANWHILE BAND WILL BACKBUILD SWD INTO TN VALLEY REGION...RESULTING IN SEWD NET SHIFT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM ONGOING WW AREAS TOWARD CENTRAL PORTIONS KY/TN. BOWS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SLGT POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ...CENTRAL/SRN CA... PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH APCHS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN WITH APCH OF TROUGH ALOFT...WHILE SFC FLOW BACKS ACROSS CENTRAL VALLEY BECAUSE OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING. MAIN CAVEAT WILL BE TIMING/EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION BEHIND ONGOING PRECIP PLUME...DURING ROUGHLY 20Z-00Z TIME FRAME. MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR 20Z OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 01/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 19:58:19 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 14:58:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601021959.k02JxqJf001044@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021956 SWODY1 SPC AC 021954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE PNS 35 E TOI 30 ESE ANB 30 WNW GAD 15 ENE MSL 55 WSW BNA 30 SE OWB 15 SW BMG 20 WSW LAF 40 NE LAF 30 N CMH 25 NW PKB 15 NNE CRW 35 WSW BKW 15 NNW HSS 40 W AVL 30 NNW AND 15 SE SPA 35 ENE CLT 30 E GSO 30 NW RWI 35 ENE RWI 50 NE EWN 65 SSW HSE ...CONT... 40 E SGJ 45 WSW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW ERI 20 N DUJ 10 ENE AOO 15 ESE HGR 20 ESE BWI 25 SSW DOV 50 ESE SBY ...CONT... 45 NNE MLB 50 W FMY ...CONT... 65 SSW PNS 20 S MGM 40 E 0A8 45 SSW MSL 50 NE MKL 40 ENE PAH MVN 15 E ALN 30 ENE UIN 40 ESE DBQ 30 SE OSH 35 WNW MBS 30 NE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 35 SSW OLM 50 S EUG 35 ESE MHS 40 NW RNO 35 SE NFL 40 SW ELY 40 NW MLF 40 ESE MLF 25 NW PGA 40 ENE GCN 25 N PRC 35 N BLH 15 SE RAL 35 SSW OXR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO NRN FL... ...OH/TN VALLEY... MATURING SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS IND/KY AHEAD OF WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS IL. THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING EAST AT ROUGHLY 30KT WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND A FEW PRE-SQUALL LINE SUPERCELLS MOSTLY ACROSS KY. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SEEMS TO REFLECT AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS IND...AND THE TENDENCY FOR LARGE SCALE PROCESSES TO SUPPORT A MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WITH THIS BAND OF CONVECTION HAS IT SPREADS TOWARD SWRN OH/CNTRL KY. SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO MIDDLE TN IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION GIVEN THE VEERING DEEP LAYER FLOW AND THE TENDENCY FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. ...SERN U.S... EARLY MORNING BANDS OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION HAVE PROGRESSED ACROSS ALL BUT SRN GA/NRN FL...TAKING ON AN E-W ORIENTATION AS FLOW DEEPENS FROM THE WEST. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MESO ANALYSIS FIELDS SEEM TO SUPPORT CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WEDGED IN ACROSS GA/SC. CONVECTIVE THERMALS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN THEIR IDENTITY WITHIN STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER...MOST LIKELY DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE/ASCENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ASCENT ATOP COOLER GA AIRMASS LATER THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER UPDRAFTS WILL UTILIZE HIGHER INSTABILITY AIRMASS IN A FASHION NECESSARY FOR SUSTAINED ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE SHORT TERM...STRONG WINDS OR HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ACROSS NRN FL...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LONGER LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ...CA... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AS CENTER OF UPPER CIRCULATION APPROACHES THE COAST. DEEP CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY REGION AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS THE GREATEST RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 01/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 3 01:00:29 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 20:00:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601030102.k03122Kx006717@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030059 SWODY1 SPC AC 030058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE SAV 35 ESE VDI 15 W VDI 40 ESE MCN 50 NE MCN 40 WNW AGS 15 W CAE 35 ESE ILM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE TYS 30 NE TYS 45 SSE JKL 40 S HTS 20 NE HTS 30 SSW PKB 35 NE CRW 30 NNE BKW BLF 35 ESE TRI 10 WNW AVL 35 ESE TYS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE DAB 30 SW SRQ ...CONT... 10 SW AAF 10 E MGR 45 ENE ABY 30 SSE MCN 30 NNW MCN 45 N ATL 40 NE CHA 45 SSW LOZ 30 NW JKL 30 NE LUK 35 ENE MIE 10 S AZO 10 NNW GRR 10 W MBS 50 SE BAX ...CONT... 25 NW ERI 20 N DUJ 10 ENE AOO 15 ESE HGR 20 ESE BWI 25 SSW DOV 50 ESE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE TRM 35 SW DAG 30 NW PMD 15 NW BFL 25 SSE FAT 40 NE FAT 25 N BIH 50 SSW P68 30 SW ENV 20 NNE DPG 25 W PUC 25 WNW U17 15 S GCN 40 SE IGM 35 SW EED 50 NNE TRM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN GA AND SC... ...ERN GA...SC AND SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY WITH A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE SRN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS ONGOING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT ACROSS ERN GA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 60 TO 70 KT RANGE WITH MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG EXTENDING NEARLY TO THE SC-GA STATE-LINE. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING IN SRN SC INCREASE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR AS THE NOSE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AFFECTS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 F SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES AS THE MCS TRACKS EWD ACROSS FAR ERN GA INTO SRN SC. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE RELATIVELY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE LINE SUGGEST LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS EVENING. THE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC BY LATE EVENING. FURTHER NORTH IN THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS ONGOING IN ERN KY AND ERN TN. THE STORMS ARE JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ARE IN A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS SUGGESTED BY OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKENING SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS THAT ARE ONGOING. THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND DECREASING SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ...INTERMOUTAIN WEST... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER CNTRL CA EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL CA AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY INITIATE ACROSS SRN NV...NW AZ AND SW UT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 01/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 3 05:38:51 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 03 Jan 2006 00:38:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601030540.k035eNAh013538@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030536 SWODY1 SPC AC 030535 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S ILM 10 WSW OAJ 45 NNE EWN 45 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW BLI 40 E AST 50 ESE OTH 70 WNW UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A FEW LINGERING STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS FAR ERN NC. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE MORNING...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF WA...ORE AND NRN CA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD DECREASE AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND DURING THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE STORMS TO DIMINISH. ..BROYLES.. 01/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 3 12:25:45 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 03 Jan 2006 07:25:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601031227.k03CRGTs027878@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031225 SWODY1 SPC AC 031223 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0623 AM CST TUE JAN 03 2006 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N CLM 40 E AST 40 WNW MHS 55 W SFO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PAC NW COAST... ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE WA/ORE/NRN CA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND LATER TODAY. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT IN OPEN CELL CU FIELD IN WAKE OF SURFACE FRONT...AND WITHIN BROAD MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM NOW JUST OFF THE WA/ORE COAST. WITH ENHANCED LIFT AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS PRE-FRONTAL RAIN BAND OVERSPREADS THE COAST TODAY. LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...COLD AIR ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED MOIST CONVECTION AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. ..EVANS.. 01/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 3 16:08:35 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 03 Jan 2006 11:08:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601031610.k03GA6T1023311@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031607 SWODY1 SPC AC 031606 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1006 AM CST TUE JAN 03 2006 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N CLM 40 E AST 40 WNW MHS 55 W SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE CRE 30 ENE FLO FAY 25 SE GSB 40 SSW HSE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE ERN PAC AND DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES OVER THE PAC COAST. PRIOR TO THIS CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC...FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS...AND INLAND FROM THE PAC NW COAST TO THE NRN ROCKIES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ACROSS SRN NC IN PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...THEN CONVECTION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM NW CA NWD ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF ORE/WA AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL LOSE AMPLITUDE WHILE MOVING INLAND LATER TODAY...AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS W OF THE COAST RANGES. ..THOMPSON.. 01/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 3 19:51:57 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 03 Jan 2006 14:51:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601031953.k03JrQFJ024854@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031951 SWODY1 SPC AC 031949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 PM CST TUE JAN 03 2006 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CLM 40 E AST 40 WNW MHS 70 SSW UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS NEWD-TRANSLATION OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS TOWARD THE WA/ORE COAST. IN ADDITION...DEEPER OCEANIC CU FIELD IS SPREADING TOWARD THE COAST WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE NEAR CEC. IT APPEARS GREATEST THREAT OF LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 02Z...THEN RIDGING AND WEAKENING CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. ..DARROW.. 01/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 4 00:50:59 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 03 Jan 2006 19:50:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601040052.k040qRd9020721@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040049 SWODY1 SPC AC 040047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST TUE JAN 03 2006 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CLM 40 E AST 15 S EUG 35 NE 4BK 25 SW CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING JUST OFF THE COAST OF ORE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING ALLOWING ANY STORM ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE CONUS. ..BROYLES.. 01/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 4 05:48:25 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 04 Jan 2006 00:48:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601040549.k045nreb025070@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040548 SWODY1 SPC AC 040546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CST TUE JAN 03 2006 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AT UPPER-LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WRN US AS A TROUGH DRIFTS EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TODAY. THE ERN US TROUGH AND NW FLOW ACROSS THE SRN STATES WILL RESULT IN A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL DRY AIR. THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE FROM RETURNING NWD MAKING CONVECTION WITH THE TROUGH UNLIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 01/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 4 12:17:55 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 04 Jan 2006 07:17:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601041219.k04CJNlE021547@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041217 SWODY1 SPC AC 041215 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0615 AM CST WED JAN 04 2006 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE U.S. TODAY WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND DIGGING SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ABSENT WITH BOTH SYSTEMS AND DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR WITHIN THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. ..EVANS.. 01/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 4 16:30:19 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 04 Jan 2006 11:30:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601041631.k04GVkNN002304@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041622 SWODY1 SPC AC 041621 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 AM CST WED JAN 04 2006 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE PAC COAST AND GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES DIGS SEWD. THE ONLY AREA OF THE CONUS WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION IS S TX. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT THIS FAR S...AND THE STRONG CAP/HIGH LFC IN 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS UNLIKELY. ..THOMPSON.. 01/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 4 19:59:48 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 04 Jan 2006 14:59:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601042001.k04K1Cj6010876@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041959 SWODY1 SPC AC 041958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 PM CST WED JAN 04 2006 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTH TX... WEAK MID-HIGH LEVEL CONVECTION PERSISTS WITHIN SWLY TRAJECTORY ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO CNTRL TX. THIS THICKER BAND OF CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH OLD CONVEYOR OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY. ASCENT WITHIN THIS PLUME IS QUITE WEAK...THUS ONLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED...AND MUCH OF THIS IS LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE LOWER TX COAST...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE TX COAST DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING. ..DARROW.. 01/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 5 00:50:06 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 04 Jan 2006 19:50:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601050051.k050pWxg012279@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050050 SWODY1 SPC AC 050048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CST WED JAN 04 2006 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AS ANTICYCLONE OFFSHORE BAJA CA...WITH MEAN RIDGE EXTENDING GENERALLY NNEWD ACROSS NV THROUGH CANADIAN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH MEAN TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO WRN GULF OF MEXICO. STRONGEST SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT ATTM IN PROFILER DATA AND MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...FCST TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS ARKLATEX REGION THROUGH END OF PERIOD. AIR MASS ACROSS CONUS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE TO SUPPORT TSTMS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD...WITH REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF AN EXCEPTION OVER LOWER TX COAST/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION. SFC DEW POINTS MID/UPPER 60S ARE ANALYZED FROM CRP SWD AND OFFSHORE...WITH WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD THROUGH AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOSS OF DIURNAL SFC HEATING AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING OF SBCIN...MODIFIED CRP RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ELEVATED MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING EACH SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK TO YIELD GEN TSTM POTENTIAL OVER LAND. ..EDWARDS.. 01/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 5 05:40:51 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 05 Jan 2006 00:40:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601050542.k055gEx8020485@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050540 SWODY1 SPC AC 050538 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 PM CST WED JAN 04 2006 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PFN 15 NNE AAF 35 SSW VLD 40 SE SAV ...CONT... 35 NNE DAB ORL 30 ESE FMY 30 S MTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE CONUS THROUGH PERIOD...FEATURING MEAN TROUGH OVER ERN STATES AND RIDGE FROM SRN CA NNEWD ACROSS CANADIAN ROCKIES. MOST PROMINENT SHORTWAVE FEATURE OVER LAND WILL MOVE FROM PRESENT POSITION OVER CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...BECOMING DECIDEDLY POSITIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES SEWD THROUGH MEAN TROUGH POSITION AND ACROSS GULF COAST STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS FCST TO SWEEP ESEWD FROM CURRENT POSITION OVER CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MS DELTA REGIONS...ACROSS NRN GULF... ATLANTIC COAST AND MOST OF FL BY 6/12Z. ...FL...SERN GA... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS ERN GULF ALONG OR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AS IT MOVES ACROSS OPTIMAL OCEAN SFC-LAYER HEAT FLUXES CHARACTERIZING LOOP CURRENT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND NEWD ACROSS NRN AND WRN FL...AND EVENTUALLY WRN KEYS LATE IN PERIOD. HOWEVER...MARGINAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH DETRIMENTAL EFFECT OF WLY PREFRONTAL WINDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER FRONTAL ASCENT...PRECLUDE SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITH ANY TSTMS THAT DO MOVE ACROSS REGION. ..EDWARDS.. 01/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 5 12:37:01 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 05 Jan 2006 07:37:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601051238.k05CcOJG015340@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051235 SWODY1 SPC AC 051233 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 AM CST THU JAN 05 2006 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EWD TOWARDS THE PAC NW COAST TODAY. THOUGH MOISTENING/LIFT AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONTS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED/SPORADIC THUNDERSTORMS. ..EVANS.. 01/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 5 16:13:59 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 05 Jan 2006 11:13:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601051615.k05GFLbQ011248@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051612 SWODY1 SPC AC 051610 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1010 AM CST THU JAN 05 2006 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS HAS EVOLVED TO AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION...AND THIS FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST WITH GRADUAL EWD PROGRESSION THROUGH TOMORROW. CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED NEAR OR JUST OFF THE NC COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING ESEWD OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY FRIDAY OVER THE GULF STREAM...BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED INLAND. ELSEWHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 38 N AND 137 W WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE WA/BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTS BY LATE TONIGHT. OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MID LEVEL COLD CORE AND IN THE BAROCLINIC BAND APPROACHING 130 W. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL TEND TO LOSE AMPLITUDE WHILE ENCOUNTERING THE RIDGE JUST INLAND FROM THE PAC COAST...AND THE THREAT FOR DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS PERIOD. ..THOMPSON.. 01/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 5 19:51:34 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 05 Jan 2006 14:51:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601051952.k05Jqtpx002234@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051950 SWODY1 SPC AC 051948 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CST THU JAN 05 2006 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THIS PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/THE SOUTHWEST. WITH COOL/STABLE AIR PREVAILING E OF THE ROCKIES AND LITTLE IF ANY DESTABILIZATION FORECAST OVER THE WRN CONUS AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 01/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 6 00:55:36 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 05 Jan 2006 19:55:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601060056.k060uvbn013682@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060054 SWODY1 SPC AC 060053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CST THU JAN 05 2006 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS CONUS...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGE FROM SRN CA THROUGH CANADIAN ROCKIES AND MEAN TROUGH FROM ERN HUDSON BAY/WRN QUE SSWWD ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED OVER SRN APPALACHIANS AND MS DELTA AREA...AND WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN ATLANTIC COAST AND NRN GULF THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT ESSENTIALLY BISECTING GULF SW-NE...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS NRN FL...ERN-MOST GA...NEWD INTO WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER NRN SC/SRN NC. ...CENTRAL CAROLINAS... MODIFIED 00Z GSO RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW LAYER OF SATURATION BENEATH VERY WEAKLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES IN 650-800 MB LAYER...LEADING TO ELEVATED MUCAPES AOB 100 J/KG. FRONTOGENETIC/CYCLOGENETIC REGIME IN THIS AREA IS AIDING LOW-MIDLEVEL ASCENT AS WELL AS WEAK DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH NERN PORTION OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THIS REGIME FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER...LACK OF MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY AND EXPECTED DECLINE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH TIME EACH INDICATE POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO MARGINAL AND ISOLATED FOR GEN TSTM OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 01/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 6 05:48:42 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 06 Jan 2006 00:48:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601060550.k065o12T025251@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060548 SWODY1 SPC AC 060546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CST THU JAN 05 2006 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N CLM 10 SSW OLM 15 SSE EUG 35 E 4BK 60 SW UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAY-1 WITH MEAN TROUGH IN ERN CONUS AND RIDGE FROM SRN CA THROUGH CANADIAN ROCKIES. COLD FRONT NOW OVER NRN FL IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP SEWD THROUGH REMAINDER PENINSULA BEFORE 6/18Z. AIRMASS OVER GREAT MAJORITY OF CONUS WILL BE TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE FOR TSTMS...WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NEAR-COASTAL PACIFIC NW. NRN PORTION OF POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY W OF CA AND ORE -- IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ASHORE AROUND 7/00Z...WITH SRN PORTION MOVING INLAND NRN CA AFTER DARK. ...WRN PORTIONS WA/ORE... MRGL PROBABILITIES FOR CATEGORICAL THUNDER OUTLOOK...WITH TSTM EVENTS BEING ISOLATED AND EPISODIC THROUGH MIDDLE-LATE PERIOD. UNLIKE SPECTRAL/NGM LI...ETA LI GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER THIS AREA...HOWEVER ANIMATIONS OF BOTH ETA AND ETA-KF SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS RESULT IS AN ARTIFACT OF THE MODELED BUOYANT LAYERS AND HOW THEY EVOLVE. MOST UNSTABLE LIFTED PARCELS BETWEEN ABOUT 18-22Z ARE ROOTED AROUND 650 MB AND GENERATE MRGL MUCAPES UNDER 100 J/KG WITH LI AROUND -1...BUT THIS IS NOT EVIDENT IN STANDARD PLANAR CAPE/LI GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF ITS MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL PARCEL SELECTION. THEN AS LOWER-MIDLEVEL ASCENT PASSES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AROUND 7/00Z. CONVECTIVE PARCEL BASES DROP QUICKLY TO AROUND 900 MB...WITH TOPS BELOW 500 MB SAMPLING LEVEL FOR LI FIELDS. THIS REGIME SHOULD SHIFT SWD THROUGH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AND NEARLY SATURATED LOW LEVEL WAA PROFILES GENERATING WEAK CAPE. ..EDWARDS.. 01/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 6 12:47:24 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 06 Jan 2006 07:47:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601061248.k06Cmgw5024986@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061246 SWODY1 SPC AC 061245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 AM CST FRI JAN 06 2006 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N CLM 10 SSW OLM 15 SSE EUG 35 E 4BK 60 SW UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE NATION...WITH STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. A RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS EVERYWHERE BUT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY. ...COASTAL WA/ORE/NORTHERN CA... STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH UPPER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT UNUSUALLY COLD...OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE COAST AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/LIFT FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. ..HART.. 01/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 6 16:00:25 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 06 Jan 2006 11:00:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601061601.k06G1ifd028273@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061556 SWODY1 SPC AC 061554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0954 AM CST FRI JAN 06 2006 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... PROGRESSION AND GRADUAL DE AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN OVER CONUS IS UNDERWAY. STRONG MOIST SWLY FLOW PAC NW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND VEER TODAY. WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY INITIALLY AND A FURTHER WEAKENING OF LAPSE RATES ANY THUNDER THREAT NOW APPEARS VERY LOW. THUS HAVE REMOVED THE EARLIER FORECASTED AREA. REMAINDER OF U.S. COVERED BY AN AIR MASS HOSTILE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ..HALES.. 01/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 6 19:47:55 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 06 Jan 2006 14:47:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601061949.k06JnBLA011114@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061946 SWODY1 SPC AC 061944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CST FRI JAN 06 2006 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE/DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THIS PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE W COAST WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PAC NW/NRN CA LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECIPITATION NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE PAC NW. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...AND LIMITED COOLING ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MORE THAN MEAGER DESTABILIZATION. THUS...OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ..GOSS.. 01/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 7 01:01:27 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 06 Jan 2006 20:01:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601070102.k0712iFk000997@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070101 SWODY1 SPC AC 070059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CST FRI JAN 06 2006 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER CONUS WITH MEAN TROUGH IN ERN STATES AND RIDGE FROM NWRN MEX NWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES. STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH NOW OVER NERN GULF AND SRN ATLANTIC COAST REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWEEPING FARTHER OFFSHORE. DRY/STABLE POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS WILL MITIGATE TSTM THREAT OVER MOST OF CONUS. ...W COAST... SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE CA...ROUGHLY ALONG 128W-129W AS OF 7/00Z. EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE ONSHORE DURING 7/09Z-7/12Z TIME FRAME...PRECEDED THIS EVENING BY BAROCLINIC LEAF SIGNATURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WAA/PRECIP PLUME. VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AMIDST POCKETS OF FEEBLE LOW-MIDLEVEL BUOYANCY...WITH MUCAPES UNDER 100 J/KG BOTH IN WAA REGIME AND BENEATH MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. ..EDWARDS.. 01/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 7 05:52:14 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 07 Jan 2006 00:52:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601070553.k075rU6I011911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070551 SWODY1 SPC AC 070549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST FRI JAN 06 2006 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI EAT ALW BKE BNO 70 S RDM EUG 35 SW ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO FALL ACROSS MOST OF WRN CONUS AS SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES...THOUGH MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER ERN STATES THROUGH PERIOD. NET RESULT SHOULD BE BROAD FETCH OF WNWLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF CONUS...STREAMLINES AND ISOHYPSES BENT SOMEWHAT BY SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING EWD ACROSS GREAT PLAINS AND BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE PACIFIC NW. LATTER PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF 135-142W...W OF BC/WA/ORE -- IS FCST TO REMAIN NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SRN PORTION MOVES ACROSS COASTAL WA/ORE FROM MIDAFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHORT-RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FROM 07/00Z AND MOST 06/21Z SPECTRAL/ETA/WRF MEMBERS OF SREF SUITE ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL TIMING/PATH OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH DAY-1...CONSIDERING ITS LOCATION IN RELATIVE OBSERVATIONAL DATA VOID. ...WA/ORE... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED -- MAINLY IN AN AFTERNOON/EVENING EPISODE CORRESPONDING TO PEAK IN LOW-MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY INDUCED BY SEVERAL DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS. COMBINATION OF DPVA ALOFT AND ASCENT UNDER LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET MAX WILL SHIFT INLAND JUST AHEAD OF TROUGH. ON IR IMAGERY...DEEP CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ATTM FROM 44W-46W WITHIN BAROCLINIC CLOUD BAND...AND SHALLOW BUT GLACIATED CELLULAR/MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY EXISTS FARTHER W BEHIND FRONT AND BENEATH LIKELY MIDLEVEL THERMAL MIN. RELATED COOLING WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL BUOYANCY OVER THUNDER OUTLOOK AREA...FROM WNW-ESE WITH TIME. INLAND...PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING ALSO WILL CONTRIBUTE SLIGHTLY TO DESTABILIZATION. MODIFIED ETA-KF SOUNDINGS INDICATE ESSENTIALLY UNINHIBITED MUCAPES 200-300 J/KG MUCAPES -- SFC-BASED OR NEARLY SO -- SPREADING INLAND THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CONCORDANCE WITH STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. ..EDWARDS.. 01/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 7 12:31:01 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 07 Jan 2006 07:31:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601071232.k07CWHug031809@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071230 SWODY1 SPC AC 071228 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 AM CST SAT JAN 07 2006 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 50 NE SEA 30 WSW DLS 65 SSE EUG 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WA/ORE COAST... PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...WITH ONE TROUGH MOVING ASHORE THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MUCH COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LAPSE RATES INTO PARTS OF WA/ORE ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ELSEWHERE...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY. ..HART.. 01/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 7 15:55:10 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 07 Jan 2006 10:55:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601071556.k07FuOcv008487@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071553 SWODY1 SPC AC 071551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0951 AM CST SAT JAN 07 2006 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 55 ENE SEA 15 WSW DLS 30 NE MFR 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... S/WV TROUGH HAS MOVED INLAND PAC NW THIS MORNING AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLDER TROUGH BY THIS EVENING. THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM HAS MOVED TO AROUND 128W AT 15Z AND FORECASTED TO REACH THE OR/SWRN WA COAST BY 21Z. WITH 850-500MB LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO NEAR 8C/KM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES INLAND...SCATTERED CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER AND W OF CASCADES. WITH FREEZING LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 3K FT MSL SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ..HALES.. 01/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 7 20:00:24 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 07 Jan 2006 15:00:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601072001.k07K1a8V028116@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071959 SWODY1 SPC AC 071957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CST SAT JAN 07 2006 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE BLI 35 N DLS 25 SW DLS 30 WSW RDM 60 N LMT 40 SW ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LESS AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH AREAS E OF THE ROCKIES REMAINING TOO DRY/STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUNDER THREAT OVER THE CONUS THIS PERIOD WILL BE CONFINED TO THE PAC NW...AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THIS REGION. ...PAC NW... SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW JUST OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING ONSHORE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-30 TO -32 C AT MID LEVELS/ NOW NEARING THE COAST. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OFFSHORE WITHIN COLD POOL ALOFT...AND EXPECT LIGHTING ACTIVITY TO INCREASE ALONG THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE OLYMPICS/CASCADES/COASTAL RANGES AS WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH COOLING ALOFT. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS WRN WA/WRN OREGON OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES INLAND...THOUGH THREAT FOR A FEW STRAY STRIKES WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS ID AND VICINITY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 01/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 8 00:57:45 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 07 Jan 2006 19:57:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601080058.k080wwnQ026901@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080057 SWODY1 SPC AC 080055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST SAT JAN 07 2006 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM OLM DLS RDM 60 N LMT 50 NW 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO FILL ACROSS MOST OF WRN CONUS AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS AREA IN GENERAL WNWLY FLOW REGIME. MOST PROMINENT OF THESE -- NOW MOVING INLAND WA/ORE BASED ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY -- IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AS IT ASSUMES INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT OVER INLAND PACIFIC NW. AT SFC...DEEP CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH BROAD AREA OF ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WAA FROM WRN GULF COAST REGION INTO CORN BELT AND UPPER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...AIR MASS E OF ROCKIES WILL REMAIN TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE FOR TSTMS. ...PACIFIC NW... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN REGION OF STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT...NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS WRN ORE AND ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED CB EXTENDING FARTHER N ACROSS WA COASTAL/OFFSHORE WATERS ALSO. ALTHOUGH LATER ACTIVITY HAS NOT PRODUCED CG LIGHTNING DETECTIONS AS OF THIS WRITING...FAVORABLE LOW-MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY IS EVIDENT FOR THUNDER WITH ABOUT 200 J/KG MUCAPE IN 00Z UIL SOUNDING. VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND ACROSS ERN PORTIONS WA/ORE AND INTERIOR NRN CA TONIGHT...BUT PROBABILITIES DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT SUCH THAT GEN TSTM FCST IS NOT NECESSARY. ..EDWARDS.. 01/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 8 05:29:47 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 08 Jan 2006 00:29:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601080530.k085UvrF024975@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080528 SWODY1 SPC AC 080527 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 PM CST SAT JAN 07 2006 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FCST THROUGH DAY-1. MAIN FEATURE WILL BE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ANOTHER MOVING ESEWD OVER INLAND PACIFIC NW. LATTER SHOULD DIG SEWD TOWARD CO BY 9/12Z. BY THEN...IT SHOULD BE PHASING WITH TRAILING PORTION OF FIRST PERTURBATION TO RESULT IN POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES WSWWD TO CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT SFC...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF LEADING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RESULT SHOULD BE DEEP LOW LOCATED INVOF MO/NEB BORDER BY 8/12Z...WHICH WILL OCCLUDE AND FILL AS IT EJECTS NEWD TOWARD SERN ONT/WRN NY THROUGH PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY...REACHING FROM CYCLONE SWWD ACROSS AR AND SW TX BY 9/12Z. LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ACROSS PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL PLAIN WILL MOISTEN AND DESTABILIZE SOMEWHAT -- FROM W-E -- AS EARLY STAGE RETURN FLOW PROCESS PROCEEDS THROUGH PERIOD. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WAA ALREADY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS WRN GULF COAST STATES NWD INTO CENTRAL PLAINS AND MS VALLEY...IN RESPONSE TO CENTRAL PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS. HOWEVER..LACK OF MORE MATURE MODIFICATION OF MARINE AIR MASS REACHING LAND...AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL FORCING IMPINGING ON MOISTENING SECTOR UNTIL AFTER 9/12Z...INDICATE GEN THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE TOO MINIMAL FOR OUTLOOK UNTIL DAY-2 PERIOD. ..EDWARDS.. 01/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 8 12:59:45 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 08 Jan 2006 07:59:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601081300.k08D0vJW018496@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081258 SWODY1 SPC AC 081257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 AM CST SUN JAN 08 2006 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... FAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NATION TODAY WILL EVOLVE INTO BROAD TROUGH BY MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UNITED STATES TODAY. ..HART.. 01/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 8 16:08:14 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 08 Jan 2006 11:08:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601081609.k08G9OvM022700@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081606 SWODY1 SPC AC 081604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1004 AM CST SUN JAN 08 2006 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LARGE SURFACE LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS MID MS THRU OH VALLEYS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS. WITH SUCH A LIMITED RETURN FLOW OFF GULF OF MEXICO...MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING TO SUPPORT CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. A STRONG VORT MAX CURRENTLY SRN ID WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM ACCOMPANIED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM WRN WY INTO NRN CO MTNS TODAY. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION AHEAD OF VORT MAX...THE GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY PRECLUDES FORECASTING A THUNDER AREA. ..HALES.. 01/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 8 19:44:31 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 08 Jan 2006 14:44:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601081945.k08JjdPL026660@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081944 SWODY1 SPC AC 081942 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CST SUN JAN 08 2006 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX/LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES -- WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT A LARGE AREA OF THE CONUS FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THOUGH AIRMASS REMAINS GENERALLY DRY/STABLE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT /H5 TEMPS -30 TO -32 C/ AND ASSOCIATED STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN TOWARD CO/WY ATTM. THOUGH A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THIS AREA WITHIN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING ATTM...OVERALL THUNDER THREAT REMAINS LOW. ..GOSS.. 01/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 9 00:39:06 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 08 Jan 2006 19:39:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601090040.k090eEjt005272@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090037 SWODY1 SPC AC 090036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CST SUN JAN 08 2006 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... LARGELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG CNTRL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH /MINUS 32C AT H5/ BEGINS TO DIG SEWD TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS BEGINNING TO INCREASE BENEATH A STOUT CAP ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES. THOUGH A WEAKER LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-MS VLY OVERNIGHT...LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD NOT MOISTEN/COOL THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY FOR A TSTM THREAT. OTHERWISE...LEADING EDGE OF STRONG UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CNTRL ROCKIES IMPULSE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. ISOLD TSTMS HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER SWRN NEB. AS THE DISTURBANCE DIGS SEWD...ISOLD TSTMS MAY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF ERN CO/NWRN KS...PRIMARILY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...AIR MASS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT TSTMS OVERNIGHT. ..RACY.. 01/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 9 05:43:45 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 09 Jan 2006 00:43:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601090544.k095irxb016440@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090542 SWODY1 SPC AC 090541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 PM CST SUN JAN 08 2006 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E BRO 20 SE NIR 25 ENE AUS 25 SSE DUA 20 SW RKR 40 W CHA 15 NE GAD 15 NE 0A8 40 ENE JAN 20 NNE HEZ 40 ESE POE 60 S LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY. AS THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING THE MIDWEST RAPIDLY TRANSLATES INTO THE NERN STATES EARLY TODAY...A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL GET LEFT BEHIND...CLOSING OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY TURN E TOWARD THE LWR MS VLY LATE MON NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM NRN STREAM IMPULSE DROPS TOWARD THE PAC NW. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDWEST UPPER DISTURBANCE...WILL SETTLE SWD ACROSS THE TN VLY AND SRN PLAINS MONDAY. ERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION BY MONDAY AFTN. AS THIS LOW TRACKS EWD TOWARD NRN LA BY 12Z TUE...WRN PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SEWD OFF THE TX COAST. ...ERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AREA... BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY MONDAY. BY AFTN...SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREE F INLAND TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE UPPER TX/LA COASTS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHERE HEATING IS THE STRONGEST. BUT... MODEST CAP NOTED IN 00Z/10 SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST...PRECLUDING SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTN WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR ACROSS THE LWR TN VLY...AND MON NIGHT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION WHERE MID-LEVEL PROFILES COOL AND UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SPREAD SEWD. TSTMS WILL THEN DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE DEEP S AND SEWD ACROSS ERN TX AND WRN/NRN LA BY EARLY TUE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT MUCAPES WILL REMAIN WEAK AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR MARGINAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS. ..RACY.. 01/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 9 12:27:23 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 09 Jan 2006 07:27:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601091228.k09CSSLL005604@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091226 SWODY1 SPC AC 091224 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 AM CST MON JAN 09 2006 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE 45 ESE COT 25 ESE ACT 25 SSE DUA 20 SW RKR 40 W CHA 15 NE GAD 15 NE 0A8 40 ENE JAN 20 NNE HEZ 40 ESE POE 60 S LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX AND LOWER MS VALLEY... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CO. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO TX/LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW WARM/RELATIVELY MOIST GULF AIR MASS NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WILL EXIST FROM SOUTHERN AR/NORTHERN MS SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER EAST TX AND WESTERN LA AS UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. IT APPEARS THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF NORTHERN LA/SOUTHERN AR AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW WHERE ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES MAY RESULT IN SUPERCELL STORMS AND A SMALL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY. ..HART.. 01/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 9 16:11:58 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 09 Jan 2006 11:11:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601091613.k09GD44K001724@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091607 SWODY1 SPC AC 091605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1005 AM CST MON JAN 09 2006 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE LFK 30 NW LFK TYR 30 SW DEQ 35 SW HOT 40 SW PBF 25 NW MLU 40 NE IER 50 ENE LFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE 45 ESE COT 25 ESE ACT 25 SSE DUA 20 SW RKR 40 W CHA 15 NE GAD 15 NE 0A8 40 ENE JAN 20 NNE HEZ 40 ESE POE 60 S LCH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF NERN TX...SWRN AR AND NRN LA... ...ARKLATEX... STRONG UPPER TROUGH SRN CO/NERN NM CONTINUES TO MOVE ESEWD AND MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION AS IT CROSSES OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES FROM TN VLY WSWWD ACROSS SRN AR AND THEN THRU THE DFW AREA TO SRN NM. PORTION OF FRONT E OF DFW WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY AS A SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS NERN TX IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. 20-25KT LOW LEVEL SSWLY FLOW ACROSS TX AHEAD OF FRONT IS RETURNING A MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO NEAR 60F INLAND ACROSS SERN TX/LA THIS AFTERNOON. AN ELEVATED MIX LAYER WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM HAS SPREAD EWD ACROSS TX AND ALONG WITH GOOD SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE. AS THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING...SURFACE LOW NERN TX WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO SRN AR. LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESPOND AND INCREASE TO 30-40KT WHICH COUPLED WITH THE 60-70KT MID LEVEL JET MAX MOVING EWD ALG N TX/SRN OK BORDER WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. IT NOW APPEARS LIKE MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ARKLATEX REGION. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND UPWARD MOTION WITH APPROACHING TROUGH THERE IS A SUFFICIENT THREAT OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL TO UPGRADE THIS AREA TO A SLIGHT RISK. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN BOTH NUMBER AND INTENSITY DURING THE EVENING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS STORMS BECOME PRIMARILY ELEVATED. ..HALES.. 01/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 9 19:24:55 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 09 Jan 2006 14:24:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601091926.k09JQ2JS024836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091924 SWODY1 SPC AC 091921 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 PM CST MON JAN 09 2006 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE UTS CLL CRS PRX HOT PBF LLQ MLU 30 SE UTS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE BRO SAT ACT DUA FLP ARG BNA CSV RMG 15 SSE ANB SEM PIB 10 SSW BTR 60 S 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.... MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH EAST TEXAS IS WARMING THROUGH THE 70S. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...BUT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EMANATING FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU IS PROVIDING SUBSTANTIAL CAP. INHIBITION STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO WEAKEN...AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A SLOWLY DEEPENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER OKLAHOMA...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS BY THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT/DRY LINE TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM LOW WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS FORCING SPREADS THROUGH MOIST AXIS. WEAK IMPULSE IN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM...NOW LIFTING INTO/THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...COULD ENHANCE FORCING IN WARM SECTOR OF LOW ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TOWARD 10/03-06Z. BASED NEAR SURFACE...POSSIBLY JUST ABOVE SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER...WITH CAPE FOR MOIST PARCELS UP TO 1000 J/KG... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS SHEAR PROFILES BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...AS A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATES AROUND SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. LARGE HAIL SEEMS LIKELY TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL IN STRONGEST STORMS...BUT A VERY ISOLATED DOWNBURST OR TWO COULD OCCUR IN INITIAL STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SPORADIC STRONG GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER NEAR LOW-LEVEL JET LATER THIS EVENING...AS ACTIVITY SPREADS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ..KERR.. 01/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 10 00:54:09 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 09 Jan 2006 19:54:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601100055.k0A0tCmf021671@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100052 SWODY1 SPC AC 100051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CST MON JAN 09 2006 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LFK 45 NW UTS 25 NNE CRS PRX 15 NNW DEQ 40 SSW HOT 15 W ELD 20 ESE SHV LFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E BRO 15 ENE SAT ACT 30 S MLC 20 ENE FSM 25 NE BVX 65 SSW CKV 40 SE BNA 10 NW RMG 25 SW ANB 15 NNE MEI 30 WSW JAN 25 S ESF 45 SSW LCH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX... ...ARKLATEX... UPPER LOW HAS BEGUN TO TURN MORE ELY THIS EVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OK/N TX OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WAS FORMING EAST OF DALLAS...ALONG A FRONT THAT WAS SITUATED FROM NRN MS-SRN AR-CNTRL TX. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO NRN LA OVERNIGHT AS THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS SERN TX BY 12Z. WINDS WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL ACCELERATE THIS EVENING AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD. RESULTANT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION/WEAKENING OF CINH ALONG/E OF THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS ERN TX AND BANDS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE THIS EVENING FROM ERN TX INTO SRN AR AND NWRN LA. TSTMS WILL HAVE THE PROPENSITY TO BE ROOTED ABOVE THE DEEPENING COLD DOME ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF TSTMS BECOMING SURFACE BASED OVER PARTS OF ECNTRL TX...NWRN LA AND SCNTRL AR. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES AND A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY.. 01/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 10 05:30:37 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 10 Jan 2006 00:30:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601100531.k0A5VdC2000315@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100529 SWODY1 SPC AC 100527 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 PM CST MON JAN 09 2006 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BLI 10 SW OLM 50 NNW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE CRP 20 SSE GGG 15 N TXK 15 E FSM GMJ 50 NNE JLN 20 E SZL 20 SW UIN 15 NNE SPI DNV 10 W MIE 35 ESE DAY 40 NW HTS 10 E LOZ 25 SW CHA 20 SSW SEM 30 SSE PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS HAS REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL BEGIN EJECTING ENEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO THE MIDWEST BY LATE TUE NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS AR TUE MORNING...THEN DEVELOP NEWD TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z WED. AS A RESULT...THE E-W ORIENTED FRONT ACROSS THE TN VLY WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE MIDWEST WHILE A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW SWEEPS EWD ACROSS THE TN VLY AND THE DEEP S THROUGH EARLY WED. ...MID-SOUTH/TN VLY... MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPPER LOW. QUALITY OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE TEMPERED BY ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER PARCELS WHOSE SOURCE REGION RESIDES BENEATH A SERN STATES SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. NONETHELESS...STRONG DCVA AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD NEWD FROM THE ARKLATEX EARLY TUE THEN ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/TN VLY TUE AFTN/EVE. THIS ENHANCED UVV WILL INTERCEPT NRN EXTENTS OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY SUPPORTING A TSTM THREAT. THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS TSTMS ONGOING EARLY ON TUE ACROSS THE OZARKS SWD INTO ERN TX...A COUPLE OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AS THE DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE UNSTABLE TUE AFTN/EVE...TSTMS MAY INTENSIFY NEAR THE MS RVR FROM THE BOOTHEEL OF MO SWD INTO THE MS DELTA AS SRN EXTENTS OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/COLD FRONT SHIFT ENEWD. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE TN/LWR OH VLYS LATER IN THE EVENING. GIVEN BACKING MEAN LAYER FLOW...TSTMS WILL MAINLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND ISOLD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS A DAMAGING WIND GUST. BUT...THE ANTICIPATED WEAK THERMAL BUOYANCY SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS. ..RACY.. 01/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 10 12:44:35 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 10 Jan 2006 07:44:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601101245.k0ACjcWk006997@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101243 SWODY1 SPC AC 101242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BLI 10 SW OLM 50 NNW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE GLS 10 NNE IER 15 E LIT 35 SSE HRO 10 WSW UMN 50 SSW SZL 35 NE SZL 20 SW UIN 15 NNE SPI DNV 10 W MIE 35 ESE DAY 40 NW HTS 10 E LOZ 25 SW CHA GZH 40 SSE PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID/LOWER MS VALLEY... UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OK WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY...WHILE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF AR/LA/MS HAS ONLY BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE DUE TO LIMITED RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 6OS WILL REMAIN OVER THIS REGION...SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF POCKETS OF MUCAPE AS HIGH AS 500 J/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CORES. OVERALL...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY. ...WA COAST... WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH AROUND 143W. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATER TONIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGE. ..HART.. 01/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 10 16:54:05 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 10 Jan 2006 11:54:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601101655.k0AGt9ke023475@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101609 SWODY1 SPC AC 101607 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1007 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BLI 10 SW OLM 50 NNW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S LCH 30 NNE ESF 55 WSW MEM 10 E POF 10 SSW TBN 35 ENE SZL 40 NNW COU 20 SW UIN 15 NNE SPI DNV 10 W MIE 35 ESE DAY 40 NW HTS 10 E LOZ 25 SW CHA GZH 40 SSE PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID/LOWER MS VALLEY... SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EXITING NERN OK WILL CONTINUE NEWD THRU LOWER OH VALLEY TONIGHT. COLD FRONT FROM LOW EXTENDS SWD THRU ERN AR AND LA WITH ONLY LIMITED RETURN OF GULF AIR MASS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT AMOUNT OF HEATING IN WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON SO THAT THE BEST MLCAPES SHOULD RISE TO NO HIGHER THAN 500 J/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WRN TN INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. SHEAR SUFFICIENTLY STRONG AND FREEZING LEVEL FAVORABLY LOW TO PROMOTE A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT IN STRONGER CORES. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECASTED. ...WA COAST... NEXT IN SERIES OF FAST MOVING TROUGHS CURRENTLY AROUND 140W WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS IT MOVES ONSHORE WRN WA. ..HALES.. 01/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 10 19:32:45 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 10 Jan 2006 14:32:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601101933.k0AJXkwv008333@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101931 SWODY1 SPC AC 101930 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BLI 10 SW OLM 50 NNW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S LCH 30 NNE ESF 55 WSW MEM POF 30 W FAM 25 ENE COU 40 SSE IRK 35 W MLI MKE MKG FNT CAK PKB 35 ESE JKL RMG 20 SSE AUO 40 SSW AAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS... AT THE MOMENT...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE OZARKS IS GENERALLY CUT-OFF FROM THE PRIMARY BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...AT LEAST TEMPORARY PHASING OF A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM IS ONGOING...AND THE TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS...AND THE EVENTUAL INCREASING INFLUENCE OF AN UPSTREAM NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK...IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT THE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD MIGRATION OF A DEEPENING...BUT STILL RELATIVELY WEAK...SURFACE LOW OUT OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SPORADIC WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG FORCING NORTHEAST OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST HAS INHIBITED MORE SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW...A NARROW TONGUE OF MOISTURE EXISTS AHEAD OF FRONT. THIS IS CHARACTERIZED BY 55F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS AND...IN CONJUNCTION WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION...IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH RISK OF SMALL HAIL/ GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE CRITERIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN MARGINAL AT BEST. ...EASTERN GULF COAST... OTHERWISE...MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN/SUBTROPICAL STREAM MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...THE BULK OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. HOWEVER... THE FAR NORTHERN FLANK OF ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ..KERR.. 01/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 11 00:31:43 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 10 Jan 2006 19:31:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601110032.k0B0Whe0015944@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110030 SWODY1 SPC AC 110028 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S JAN 25 ESE GWO 50 NNE TUP 40 SW CKV 30 SSE OWB 50 WNW SDF 10 WNW BMG 30 NE HUF 25 WNW LAF 10 WSW VPZ 15 E BEH 10 N JXN 20 SSE MTC 35 NNE CLE CAK 20 N ZZV 40 SW CMH 30 ESE LUK 35 NW LOZ 10 NW CSV 40 W CHA 15 SSW 0A8 25 S JAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MIDWEST SWD INTO TN VLY... UPPER LOW OVER THE OZARKS WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING EWD THROUGH THE OH/TN VLYS AND DEEP S. STRONGEST PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS IND/OH AND CNTRL KY OVERNIGHT. ORGANIZED SHORT LINE SEGMENT THAT BOWED AND PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS ACROSS WRN KY EARLIER HAS WEAKENED. BUOYANCY ACROSS THE MIDWEST IS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED TSTMS TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES LIKELY FAVORING AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TRACK OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW. OTHERWISE...A BAND OF CONVECTION PERSISTS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE DEEP S/TN VLY THIS EVENING. A LOW PROBABILITY OF TSTMS WILL EXIST IN A NARROW AXIS THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS MIDDLE TN SWD INTO NWRN AL/NERN MS. BUT...THETA-E AXIS HAS BEEN PINCHED-OFF TO THE S AS LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE EMANATING FROM BENEATH THE SERN STATES ANTICYCLONE. AS A RESULT... THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR VERY FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS LASTING BEYOND EARLY EVENING. ..RACY.. 01/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 11 05:41:19 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 11 Jan 2006 00:41:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601110542.k0B5gI3X002345@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110540 SWODY1 SPC AC 110538 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ART 15 N RUT 75 SSW BHB ...CONT... 60 SSE EWN FLO 35 NW CAE 35 SW HSS 10 SW LOZ 45 SE LUK 35 SE DAY 35 ESE TOL 55 E MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BLI 50 SSE OLM EUG OTH 45 WSW OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE POLAR WLYS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ON WED. AN AMPLIFYING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ASHORE THE PAC NW WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY WED NIGHT. DOWNSTREAM...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OH VLY WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY INTO NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY THU AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE PRIMARY WLYS AGAIN. ...NERN STATES... STRONGEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OH VLY UPPER LOW WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE MID/UPPER OH VLY AND INTO THE MIDDLE ATLC STATES THROUGH WED AFTN...THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. THOUGH MSTR RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO/WRN ATLC WILL BE MINIMAL...STRONG UVV AND INJECTION OF STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ATOP SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BANDS OF CONVECTION. SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE APT TO EVOLVE FROM ALONG/W OF THE APPALACHIAN CREST...THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NRN/MID-ATLC COASTAL AREAS LATE WED/WED NIGHT. MEAN FLOW REGIME WILL BE QUITE STRONG...BUT PRESENCE OF A NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PRECLUDE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ...PAC NW... MINUS 30 DEGREE C H5 TEMPERATURES SPREADING INLAND ATOP A MOIST CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SPORADIC TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PAC NW. MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WED AFTN...LESSENING THE RISK OF TSTMS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. ..RACY.. 01/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 11 12:48:19 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 11 Jan 2006 07:48:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601111249.k0BCnJHj007411@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111247 SWODY1 SPC AC 111245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 AM CST WED JAN 11 2006 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ART 15 N RUT 75 SSW BHB ...CONT... 20 NE JAX 50 NW AYS 20 S SPA 10 NNE TRI 20 NNE JKL 45 SE LUK 35 SE DAY 35 ESE TOL 55 E MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BLI 50 SSE OLM EUG OTH 45 WSW OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...EASTERN STATES... UPPER LOW OVER IL/IND WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...WITH MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND CAROLINAS. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ONLY MARGINALLY MOIST/UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING MAY HELP DESTABILIZE PARTS OF NC/VA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM EASTERN GA/SC ALL THE WAY INTO NY AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE RATHER STRONG WIND FIELDS...LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ...WA COAST... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND AND AWAY FROM REGION THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. ..HART.. 01/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 11 16:06:22 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 11 Jan 2006 11:06:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601111607.k0BG7LXY018488@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111604 SWODY1 SPC AC 111602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1002 AM CST WED JAN 11 2006 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE ROC 20 E GFL 75 SSW BHB ...CONT... 20 NE JAX VDI 35 SE SPA 20 ENE TRI 20 N CRW 35 NNE PKB 20 SE CAK 25 NW YNG 35 W ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BLI 55 NNE PDX 35 SE EUG OTH 45 WSW OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... UPPER LOW OVER OH VALLEY THIS AM WILL LIFT NEWD AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH...TRACKING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM ERN OH VALLEY SWD TO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO DELINEATES THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A MARGINAL THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SPOTTY HEATING CAROLINAS INTO VA E OF FRONT WILL DEVELOP POCKETS OF INSTABILITY CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING THE BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS. CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF CASCADES IN PAC NW WILL END DURING AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. ..HALES.. 01/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 11 19:29:46 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 11 Jan 2006 14:29:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601111930.k0BJUf6u016022@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111928 SWODY1 SPC AC 111927 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 PM CST WED JAN 11 2006 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW PNS MCN 30 SE AHN AND 20 WNW AVL 15 W BLF 10 NW CRW HLG 15 WNW ERI ...CONT... 30 NW ART ALB 50 E PSM ...CONT... 30 E SGJ 65 SSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BLI 55 NNE PDX 25 S PDX 25 NNW EUG 30 W ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...EASTERN STATES... CLOSED LOW IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE...AND TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY MERGE BACK INTO PRIMARY BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES...EXTENDING ACROSS QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LINGERING TROUGHING IN SUBTROPICAL STREAM MAY LAG A BIT...BUT STILL PROGRESS OFF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12/12Z. AHEAD OF TROUGH AXES...EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WARM LOWER/MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS ALL BUT THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. LIMITED MOISTURE INFLUX OFF THE GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC IS MINIMIZING SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ON TAIL END OF POLAR TROUGH. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...WHERE NEAR SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STRONG SHEAR COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH HAIL/WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE CRITERIA. ELSEWHERE...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AS STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF WEAKENING LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...AS THIS FORCING SPREADS ACROSS NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ABOVE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION... FROM COASTAL NEW JERSEY THROUGH LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... LINGERING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AS AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM PATTERN SUPPORTS BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST. ..KERR.. 01/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 12 00:44:34 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 11 Jan 2006 19:44:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601120045.k0C0jVa0027041@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120043 SWODY1 SPC AC 120042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CST WED JAN 11 2006 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE HSE 10 W EWN 10 NNE FAY 25 SSW DAN 25 SSE LYH 25 ENE CHO 10 N MRB 10 NNE AOO 45 ESE BFD 15 WSW ITH 35 NW ALB 10 SE LCI 35 ESE PWM 60 ESE PWM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID ATLANTIC... CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING ACROSS AREAS OF SERN VA AND NERN NC THIS EVENING AS STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WRN PA/NY UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER...A DEEP LAYER OF MARITIME MOISTURE REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AHEAD OF A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT/WEAKENING FRONT. LIFT ALONG THIS ADVANCING BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...COULD STILL PROVOKE A FEW TSTMS WITH MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE NRN OUTER BANKS AND VA CAPES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ...NORTHEAST... STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM PA/NY TO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. LIFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE HAVE ALREADY RESULTED IN A FEW TSTMS ACROSS PA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN EXTENSIVE MOIST PLUME AND EVOLVING BAROCLINIC CLOUD BAND INDICATIVE OF STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT EXIST AHEAD OF THE MAIN IMPULSE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WAS INDICATED IN EVENING SOUNDINGS FROM WAL AND OKX AND WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION OF STRONGEST ASCENT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE DC-NY-BOS CORRIDOR TONIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 01/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 12 05:14:51 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 00:14:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601120516.k0C5Gjs6019981@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120514 SWODY1 SPC AC 120513 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 PM CST WED JAN 11 2006 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MCB 40 N LFT 30 WNW LCH 25 SSW LFK 20 NE TYR 35 E DEQ 30 WSW BVX 25 SW POF 20 NNE DYR 20 SE MKL 20 NNE TUP 30 NNW MCB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE BPT 25 NW HOU 10 WNW CLL 15 SW CRS 25 WSW PRX 20 SSE FSM 35 W STL 30 WNW MIE 20 SSW DAY 35 WNW LOZ 10 N CHA 20 NE 0A8 60 W GZH 30 SE ASD 65 S HUM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH A SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE CURRENTLY CROSSING BAJA TO PRODUCE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH SYSTEM EVOLVES...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH TODAY...BEFORE SPREADING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. ...ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS VALLEY... GRADUAL AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR NNEWD FROM THE TX COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SSWLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND TRANSPORTS 55-60F DEWPOINTS TO NWRN LA AND SWRN AR BY THIS EVENING. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS WILL BE RESTRICTED THROUGH THE DAY BY LIMITED FORCING AND STRONG CAP. AFTER DARK...STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL EROSION OF THE CAPPING LAYER AND SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY FROM TXK NEWD TO BOOTHEEL OF MO. BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER AND BE FURTHER UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT WITH TIME. HOWEVER...WITH LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500MB LAYER APPROACHING 8 C/KM DUE TO STRONG COOLING ALOFT...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL. STRONG LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE THAT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. STORMS/UPDRAFTS ALONG THE SRN END OF THE LINE MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT BECOMING NEAR SURFACE-BASED GIVEN PROXIMITY TO WARMER AIR MASS AND GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES EVOLVING WITHIN THIS PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE...PERHAPS FROM SRN AR/NRN LA TO WRN MS...WOULD HAVE A GREATER CHANCE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 01/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 12 12:44:35 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 07:44:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601121246.k0CCkR3l014874@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121244 SWODY1 SPC AC 121242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW HEZ 25 SE IER 45 ENE LFK 35 NNW GGG 15 WNW DEQ 25 WSW RUE 20 NNW BVX 30 NE JBR 25 E MEM 25 SW GWO 35 NNW HEZ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE BPT 25 NW HOU 10 WNW CLL 15 SW CRS 25 WSW PRX 10 SW FSM 30 N FAM 20 NNW BMG 40 NNW LEX 60 SW LEX 25 NNE HSV 20 WNW SEM 25 N MOB 30 SE ASD 65 S HUM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER UT/CO WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM EASTERN TX/OK ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. GULF MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THIS REGION...WITH 50S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL AR SOUTHWARD BY 00Z. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING FROM WESTERN AR INTO NORTHEAST TX AS SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND A CAPPING INVERSION THAT MAY INITIALLY LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND RATHER COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY PROMOTE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS AFTER DARK OVER PARTS OF AR. LINEAR NATURE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LA INTO WESTERN MS. ..HART.. 01/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 12 16:41:28 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 11:41:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601121643.k0CGhg58023943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121629 SWODY1 SPC AC 121627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW MCB 30 SE POE 10 ESE UTS 35 SSE PRX 35 NNW DEQ 25 WSW RUE 20 NNW BVX 30 NE JBR 20 N UOX 25 SW PIB 15 SW MCB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S LBX 60 S CLL 10 WNW CLL 15 SW CRS GYI GMJ 30 N FAM 20 NNW BMG 40 NNW LEX 60 SW LEX 25 NNE HSV 20 WNW SEM 25 N MOB GPT 65 S HUM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ....LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING TROUGH CROSSING CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AM PROGGED TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD TO LOWER MS VALLEY BY FRI AM. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SWRN KS ATTM MOVES TO LOWER MO VALLEY BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES SEWD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION FROM THE KS LOW INTO NRN NM REACHING LOWER MS VALLEY 12Z FRI. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE SRN STATES AS FAR E AS GA AND RAPIDLY RETURNING GULF MOISTURE UNDERWAY SRN AND ERN TX...AIR MASS POTENTIALLY COULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL CINH AND THE MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET SLOWING THE SURFACE HEATING...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL AT LEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING UPWARD MOTION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY THIS EVENING. AS 60F DEWPOINTS SPREADS THRU ERN TX INTO LA...MLCAPES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COOL/STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD THAT WILL BE MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN OK INTO N TX DURING THE EVENING. INITIAL THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE OVERNIGHT AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO SHORT LINES/BOWS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE STRONG UPWARD MOTION AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THE CAP WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT ERN TX INTO LA. 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET BY LATE TONIGHT LOWER MS VALLEY COUPLED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE 80PLUS KT 500 WIND MAX WILL PROVIDE SHEAR PROFILES INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO FORM AHEAD OF THE FORCED ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FRONT WOULD HAVE TORNADO POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT. THIS ACCOUNTS FOR THE INCREASE AND SWD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TORNADO PROBABILITIES IN THIS FORECAST. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR EAST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT BOTH 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE POTENTIALLY MLCAPES AT LEAST TO 500 J/KG INTO SWRN MS BY 12Z FRI. ..HALES.. 01/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 12 19:50:38 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 14:50:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601121952.k0CJqUuO003640@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121950 SWODY1 SPC AC 121948 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ASD LCH UTS CRS DUA FYV VIH BLV 30 SE MVN MKL UOX GWO JAN PIB ASD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE CRP 35 N NIR AUS FTW ADM GMJ PIA SBN 35 NE FWA DAY CKV TUP MEI 30 NNW MOB 70 SSE MOB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VLY.... ...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES... SLOW MODIFICATION OF AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES...AND A RETURN FLOW IS NOW DEVELOPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP...EVEN OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT TONGUE OF 55-60F SURFACE DEW POINTS IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THIS WILL CONTINUING ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING...AND PERHAPS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTING ONGOING SHOWERY/LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. STRONG CAP ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLATEAU HAS INHIBITED DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN THE CASE UNTIL MID-LEVEL FORCING INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF DIGGING UPSTREAM TROUGH. INITIATION OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY AROUND 13/01-03Z...NEAR PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION...AND CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL THREAT IN MOST DEVELOPING STORMS...WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD/EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TORNADO/WIND THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...BUT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BASED INCREASINGLY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AS SURFACE DEW POINTS SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE NIGHT. BETTER INFLUX OF MOISTURE...AND POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. ..KERR.. 01/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 12 22:04:08 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 17:04:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601122206.k0CM613b032448@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122203 SWODY1 SPC AC 122201 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0401 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ASD LCH UTS CRS DUA FYV VIH BLV 30 SE MVN MKL UOX GWO JAN PIB ASD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE CRP 35 N NIR AUS FTW ADM GMJ PIA SBN 35 NE FWA DAY CKV TUP MEI 30 NNW MOB 70 SSE MOB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VLY.... ...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES... SLOW MODIFICATION OF AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES...AND A RETURN FLOW IS NOW DEVELOPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP...EVEN OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT TONGUE OF 55-60F SURFACE DEW POINTS IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THIS WILL CONTINUING ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING...AND PERHAPS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTING ONGOING SHOWERY/LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. STRONG CAP ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLATEAU HAS INHIBITED DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN THE CASE UNTIL MID-LEVEL FORCING INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF DIGGING UPSTREAM TROUGH. INITIATION OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY AROUND 13/01-03Z...NEAR PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION...AND CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL THREAT IN MOST DEVELOPING STORMS...WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD/EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TORNADO/WIND THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...BUT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BASED INCREASINGLY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AS SURFACE DEW POINTS SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE NIGHT. BETTER INFLUX OF MOISTURE...AND POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. ..KERR.. 01/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 01:11:23 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 20:11:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601130113.k0D1DFxW027375@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130110 SWODY1 SPC AC 130109 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0709 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BPT CLL 15 N ACT 20 NW DAL 20 W FYV 20 E SGF 30 E VIH 10 SW BLV MVN 45 NE PAH 45 NNE MKL 30 SSE MKL 40 SE GWO 25 ESE HEZ 40 NNW LFT 30 NNW BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE PSX 30 SSE TPL 40 SSE SEP 40 NNW FTW 40 N JLN 25 NE COU 35 W SPI 25 NNE LAF 20 S MIE 35 SSE SDF 15 S BNA 25 S MSL 45 ESE MEI 10 ENE MOB 70 SW PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...ARKLATEX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY... POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 90KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX WERE DEVELOPING ESEWD ACROSS OK AND NORTH TX THIS EVENING. SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN OVERTAKING THE DRYLINE FROM NERN OK SWWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER TO MWL AT 00Z. MEANWHILE...PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN FROM SOUTHEAST TX NWD TO THE OZARKS BENEATH RELATIVELY STOUT CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 850MB. WARM NOSE DEFINING THE CAPPING LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AS BOTH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MESOSCALE FRONTAL LIFT SPREAD EAST THIS EVENING. TSTM INITIATION NEAR WAS NOW OCCURRING OVER ERN OK/NWRN AR. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR SWWD TOWARD NERN TX...AND NEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS THROUGH LATE EVENING. EVENING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DEPICT 25-45KT LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW VEERING TO WSWLY AND INCREASING TO 40-50KT THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. SHEAR AND FORCING ACROSS THE SLGT RISK AREA ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 30-50KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING STORM ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENCE. COUPLED WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM AR ENEWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. GIVEN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF DEEPENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION...AND FOCUSED LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONT...INITIAL DISCRETE STORMS FROM AR SWWD SHOULD MERGE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND SPREAD EAST TO THE MS VALLEY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IF INITIAL CELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE AND OVERCOME WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER INHIBITION...A SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT COULD EVOLVE ACROSS ERN OK AND THE ARKLATEX REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY LINEAR AND MOVES EAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ..CARBIN.. 01/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 06:00:38 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 01:00:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601130602.k0D62SGS029204@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130600 SWODY1 SPC AC 130558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S BVE 30 SSE PIB 20 N MEI 40 ENE CBM 50 NNE HSV 35 SE CSV 30 ENE AVL 10 SSE HKY 25 WSW SOP 40 NNE CHS 40 E SAV 15 SSE SSI 30 W SGJ 60 SSW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE MLB 55 W FMY ...CONT... 60 S LCH 10 SE HEZ 25 S UOX CKV 40 NNE SDF 20 SSW CMH 30 NNW UNI 15 SSE PKB SSU 25 SW LYH 55 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 20 NE AST 25 NE 4BK 20 SSE UKI 15 SE SFO 20 W MRY 40 SW MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE GLS 25 NNW MLU 25 NNW MEM 30 SSW PAH SLO 10 ENE CMI 35 S SBN 10 SSW DTW 45 NE CLE 40 WNW IPT 15 NNE IPT 30 WNW MSV 35 WSW PSF 15 NNE BAF 10 ESE ORH 25 SE EWB 35 SW ACK. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MISSISSIPPI...SRN/ERN TENNESSEE...MUCH OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NRN FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SCNTRL CONUS AS A POWERFUL MID LEVEL TROUGH PRODUCES SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. VERY STRONG MID LEVEL JET CORE...500MB WINDS OF 100-110KT...WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE MS DELTA REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS INTENSIFYING SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGES EAST FROM THE MS RIVER TO THE TN VALLEY. GIVEN RAPID EWD TRANSLATION OF THE ENTIRE TROUGH SYSTEM...AND 12H 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 200M...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND INTO NRN FL LATER THIS EVENING. INTENSE FORCED ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. FROM TN NWD TO THE OH VALLEY...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN DIFFLUENT EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET CORE... COUPLED WITH LOWERING STATIC STABILITY...SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION THROUGH TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS DEVELOPING PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM UPPER OH VALLEY TO NRN VA. IN THE WEST...ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD INCREASE...AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. ...TN VALLEY/SOUTH... STRONGLY FORCED PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE HAS EVOLVED AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/OZARKS REGIONS AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK. GIVEN INTENSE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS SPREADING EAST INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE...SEVERE WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST ACROSS TN/AL/GA...AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE... THROUGH AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED RETURN FLOW/MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED INSTABILITY. DESPITE LOW CAPE...STRONGLY FORCED SLAB ASCENT WITHIN MOIST ADIABATIC ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE LINE SHOULD SUPPORT LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE LAYER /MAUL/. CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING WITHIN THIS LAYER WILL LEAD TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REACHING THE SURFACE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW-TOPPED DERECHO PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BREAKS IN THE LINE...OR ANY CELLULAR CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE...WILL BE LOCATIONS FAVORED FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH WRN SC BY EVENING AND MAY BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER SLIGHT DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WITH EWD EXTENT. HOWEVER...THIS MAY HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL GIVEN RAPID EWD PROGRESSION OF THE LINE AND STRONG FORCING. THUS...DAMAGING WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH LATE EVENING. ...OH VALLEY EAST TO MID ATLANTIC... STRONG DYNAMICS WILL MAINTAIN LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT. WHILE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOWER THAN FARTHER SOUTH...SHEAR AND FORCING APPEAR TO SUGGEST AT LEAST MARGINAL HAIL/WIND EVENTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE OH VALLEY...AND PERHAPS EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ..CARBIN.. 01/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 12:39:30 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 07:39:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601131241.k0DCfJXM005919@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131239 SWODY1 SPC AC 131237 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S HUM 25 SE BTR 35 WSW MEI 35 SW 0A8 25 WSW TOI 10 NNE MGR 30 SSW SAV 15 ESE FLO 30 NW RWI 25 SW ORF 40 ENE HSE ...CONT... 40 ENE SGJ 15 E GNV 40 SW PIE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW 7R4 25 NW MCB 15 ENE CBM 40 SE BWG 40 WNW SDF 20 ESE IND 20 S DAY 15 WSW HTS 35 ENE TRI 10 ESE ROA 25 NE HGR 15 ENE ABE 45 ESE NEL ...CONT... 45 NNE PBI 35 SW APF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S LCH 20 ENE HEZ MEM 45 SW EVV 40 ENE SLO 40 N DNV 25 NNE AZO 20 W MTC 20 NNW YNG 25 ESE BUF 20 NNE SYR 15 E GFL 25 NE ORH 35 SW ACK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 20 NE AST 30 E 4BK 45 S RBL 20 NE SCK 45 E MRY 65 WSW PRB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SE LA/SRN AL INTO NRN FL/SRN GA...AND FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS TO THE DELMARVA REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE FL PENINSULA... ...SYNOPSIS... SATELLITE...PROFILER AND VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE LWR MS VLY SHOULD CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TODAY AS ASSOCIATED JET STREAK NOW OVER NE TX/NW LA CONTINUES E/SE INTO THE NRN GULF AND UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE RCKYS. SURFACE LOW NOW CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LWR OH VLY SHOULD DEEPEN AND MOVE E ACROSS KY TODAY/TONIGHT...BEFORE REDEVELOPING E OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO MD/SRN PA EARLY SATURDAY. COLD FRONT TRAILING S FROM THE LOW SHOULD ACCELERATE E/SE ACROSS THE GULF CST STATES/GA AND FL TODAY/TONIGHT...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FRONT LIKELY WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY E ACROSS ERN NC/VA AND MD LATER IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ...ERN LA/MS INTO S GA/FL... PROPAGATION OF ORIGINAL SQUALL LINE THAT FORMED LAST EVENING IN ERN OK/AR HAS CARRIED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SOMEWHAT E OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN KY/MIDDLE TN...NW AL AND CNTRL MS. NRN PART OF LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DECELERATE OVER THE OH AND UPR TN VLYS LATER THIS MORNING. SRN PART OF SQUALL LINE...SHOULD...HOWEVER...REMAIN STRONG AND MAY SHOW SOME INTENSIFICATION SWD INTO THE GULF AS IT ACCELERATES E/SE ACROSS SE MS/SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. RESIDUAL WEDGE AIR MASS OVER NRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF AL/GA...AND UPLAND SC...SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IN THOSE AREAS AS CONVECTIVE BAND PASSES THROUGH. FARTHER S... HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE IN EXIT REGION OF AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK...50-60 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF WARM FRONT SEGMENT OVER THE NRN GULF /NEAR MOB/...SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS MAY YIELD HIGH WIND...A COUPLE TORNADOES AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL AS THEY MOVE/SPREAD E ACROSS SRN AL...THE FL PANHANDLE AND NRN/WRN FL LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FARTHER S...MORE ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ACTIVITY OVER CNTRL AND SRN FL...WHERE MODERATE AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE BENEATH STRENGTHENING /40-50 KT/ WLY FLOW ALOFT. ...ERN CAROLINAS INTO VA/MD/DE/SE PA/NJ... CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING OF SSWLY FLOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ERN SC/NC RAOBS AND SURFACE DATA OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SHOW PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION. THIS AIR SHOULD BE DRAWN NWD ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN INTO AT LEAST THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND 50 KT DEEP SSWLY SHEAR...SETUP MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SMALL SCALE BOWS/TORNADOES LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. ...OH VLY... PRESENCE OF STRONG DPVA DOWNSTREAM FROM MAIN UPPER VORT NOW OVER CNTRL AR...COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE INFLOW...MAY INITIATE A SECONDARY AREA OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INVOF SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT IN IND/KY. EXPECTED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL...HOWEVER...BE LIMITED...AND UPPER FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO BACK ALOFT. THESE FACTORS MAY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...AND REGION MAY BE DOWNGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..CORFIDI.. 01/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 16:36:36 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 11:36:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601131638.k0DGcNoH012059@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131622 SWODY1 SPC AC 131620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S MOB 35 ENE MOB 20 SSW MGM 15 SW LGC 15 NE MCN 15 SE VDI 35 SSE AYS 45 SW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW BVE 50 N MOB 30 NW ATL 10 NNE AND 30 SW GSO 30 ENE HGR 25 NNW TTN 35 SE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE VRB 40 W APF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 20 NE AST 30 E 4BK 45 S RBL 20 NE SCK 45 E MRY 65 WSW PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW BVE 55 SSE MEI 30 NE MSL 20 SSE CKV 20 S MVN 20 E BMI 40 ESE SBN 25 ENE FDY 20 SSE PKB EKN 15 SSW SYR 15 E GFL 20 WSW PSM 50 ENE HYA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN AL...SRN/CENTRAL GA...NRN FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MOST OF THE SERN U.S. INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SRN AL/SRN GA/FL... WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL AL NEAR INTERSECTION WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT AND ESE ORIENTED WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING INTO CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON. A PAIR OF WARM FRONTS IS EVIDENT AT 16Z...NRN MOST IS WEDGE FRONT OVER UPLANDS OF SC/NC/NRN GA...WITH MARINE FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN GA INTO SERN AL. CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER DISCRETE THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL SRM COUPLETS EVIDENT ON AREA RADARS OVER SRN AL AND FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE. 12Z SOUNDINGS WITHIN MODEST WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RECOVERY IS NEEDED INTO SRN GA AND MUCH OF NRN FL. HOWEVER...SIL/S SOUNDING INDICATED A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS WHICH IS FEEDING CURRENT ACTIVITY. AS STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS TODAY...EXPECT SIMILAR AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP ENEWD INTO GA AND NRN FL WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S F. VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING ALSO INDICATES STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF CURRENT BROKEN SQUALL LINE OVER MUCH OF FL PANHANDLE/NWRN FL INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS WILL LIKELY AID DEVELOPING PRIMARY WARM FRONT INTO NRN/CENTRAL GA AND CENTRAL SC THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS EXPECTED WARM SECTOR YIELD SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH 50+ KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2. THUS...TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN INCREASED INTO FAR SRN AL...SRN/CENTRAL GA AND NRN FL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS. LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE FROM SERN GA SWWD INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS MUCH OF FL OVERNIGHT WHERE RECOVERING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...CAROLINAS INTO THE DELMARVA AND SERN PA/NJ... LOW LEVEL WAA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL AHEAD OF PRIMARY UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...AND SIMILAR DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY ADVECT NWD RAPIDLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS 50+ KT SLY LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN NC AND ERN VA. AS SHEAR INCREASES LATER TODAY...SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO LIKELY INCREASE AS ACTIVITY STRENGTHENS NEAR THE NC/SC COAST. PRIMARY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT OF GA AND DEVELOP EWD OFF THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT AS STRONG/DEEP ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES AS IT SPREADS EWD OFF THE COAST AND DEVELOPS NWD ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE LATE TONIGHT. ...OH RIVER VALLEY... INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...NEAR 50 F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ATTM OVERALL THREAT WARRANTS LOWERING OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..EVANS.. 01/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 19:54:39 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 14:54:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601131956.k0DJuQ76002519@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131953 SWODY1 SPC AC 131952 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PFN 40 WNW ABY 35 ENE CSG 35 SSW AHN AGS 25 SE SAV 35 SSW SGJ 40 WSW PIE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE PNS 35 SSW CSG 35 E RMG PSK SHD HGR 25 NNW TTN 50 ESE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MSS ALB 60 ENE HYA ...CONT... 55 SSW PNS BHM BWG 30 WSW BMG VPZ GRR 65 NE BAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 20 NE AST 30 E 4BK 45 S RBL 20 NE SCK 45 E MRY 65 WSW PRB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF CNTRL/SRN GA AND NRN FL.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA ACROSS THE MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ....EASTERN STATES... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SEEMS TO SUGGEST ANOTHER STRONG JET STREAK IS DEVELOPING/DIGGING UPSTREAM OF BASE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MUCH AS FORECAST BY MODELS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOUTHEASTWARD AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER STILL IN THE PROCESS OF MODIFYING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING STILL LAGGING TO THE WEST OF SURFACE WARM SECTOR...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. HOWEVER... DEEPENING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ADVECT INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR BENEATH INCREASINGLY STRONG AND DIFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW FIELD...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN AND JUST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE. GIVEN PRESENCE OF AT LEAST WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES. FATHER NORTH...STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT THROUGH THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY EVENING... INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS CONTINUING LIKLIHOOD OF INLAND ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND DESTABILIZATION SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE. A LARGE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE...BEFORE SPREADING OFF ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT. EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG 40 TO 50 KT MEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW...MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT SEEMS TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 01/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 00:47:30 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 19:47:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601140049.k0E0nHDI013211@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140047 SWODY1 SPC AC 140045 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE AAF 50 WSW VDI 45 N AGS 30 SSW HKY 45 NW GSO 30 NNE LYH 35 SSW DCA 30 SSW DOV 45 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW AAF 15 S ABY 15 ENE MCN 15 SE AND 15 ESE HSS 45 SSE JKL 30 NW JKL 35 NNW SDF 25 ENE HUF LAF 40 WNW FWA 35 SSW JXN 10 ENE CLE FKL 30 SSE BFD 20 NE AVP 10 NNE BAF 15 SW AUG 15 N EPM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FL...THE SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC... POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH 100KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK NOW DEVELOPING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER MS/AL. ASSOCIATED SHARP SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO A CLT-CAE-TLH LINE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A NEARLY SOLID LINE OF TSTMS EXISTS NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS SC...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE. RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FROM SERN GA AND CNTRL SC ENEWD TO THE NC OUTER BANKS GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. MARGINAL /MOIST ADIABATIC/ LAPSE RATES WERE CONTRIBUTING TO ONLY MEAGER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER MUCH OF SC AND NC FRONT...WITH MUCAPE VALUES AOB 250 J/KG. GREATER INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 500-1500 J/KG/ WAS BEING INDICATED IN OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND LATEST SOUNDING DATA FROM CHS SWWD TO NRN FL. GIVEN STRONGLY FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT...AND INTENSE SHEAR EVIDENT IN WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TORNADO AND/OR WIND DAMAGE EVENTS REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS SRN SC AND SERN GA WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY IS SITUATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ...FL... DESPITE VEERED/WLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE COINCIDENT WITH FRONTAL INTRUSION ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TONIGHT. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS INDICATING COOLING CLOUD TOPS WITHIN BROKEN SQUALL LINE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF NORTH FL. FURTHERMORE...RADAR SUGGESTS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WERE ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN THIS BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FROM EVENING RAOBS...IN ADDITION TO SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE... SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...OR SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE...WILL POSE A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE/HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES. ..CARBIN.. 01/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 05:23:34 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 14 Jan 2006 00:23:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601140525.k0E5PK1D011226@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140523 SWODY1 SPC AC 140521 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S HSE 20 ENE BWI 25 NNE ABE 20 S PSF 50 NNE BGR 25 SE HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI 40 NNW OLM 40 SSE OTH 30 S MHS 60 S TVL 15 W NID 25 NE RAL 20 WSW CZZ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN SITUATED FROM COAST TO COAST ACROSS THE CONUS. IN THE EAST...AN EXTENSIVE AND INTENSE MERIDIONAL TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS TO NEW ENGLAND AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND CANADIAN MARITIMES. DEEP LAYER SLY FLOW ON THE ERN FLANK OF THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE NWD IN ADVANCE OF INTENSIFYING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE NRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AXIS. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY DRIVE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER NJ BY AFTERNOON AND THIS LOW SHOULD TRACK RAPIDLY NEWD TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY EVENING. WHILE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED...TSTMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AND INLAND ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND GIVEN INTENSE DYNAMICS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICT ANOTHER EXTENSIVE MERIDIONAL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...NEARING 127W. STRONG IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WEST OF THE CNTRL CA COAST AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS LATER TODAY. WHILE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND INTENSIFYING OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK INSTABILITY AND MEAGER LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZED TSTM POTENTIAL. ..CARBIN.. 01/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 12:36:04 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 14 Jan 2006 07:36:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601141237.k0ECbnFo018172@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141235 SWODY1 SPC AC 141233 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE HSE NEL 20 ENE MSV 25 SSE RUT 50 NNE BGR 25 SE HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI 40 NNW OLM 40 SE OTH 40 WNW RBL 55 NNE SAC 45 NNE NID 45 SE DAG 50 WNW SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SATELLITE AND UPSTREAM VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT POWERFUL SRN APPALACHIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND ASSUME A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CONTINUES E INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW REDEVELOPING OVER SE NY VERY SLOW MOVING AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY E ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. IN THE WEST...SRN PART OF E PACIFIC TROUGH COMPLEX EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT MEMBER AS IT CONTINUES ESE INTO SRN CA BY 12Z SUNDAY. ...NEW ENG... PRE-COLD FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING S FROM THE LWR HUDSON VLY MAY DECELERATE A BIT AS IT CONTINUES E ACROSS SRN NEW ENG AND LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD STILL CLEAR THE MA CST BY 18Z. DEEP/STRONG SSWLY WIND FIELD ORIENTED PARALLEL TO BAND WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW AMPLITUDE LEWPS. WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL...HOWEVER...LIMIT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW/50+ KT LLJ. A FEW SPOTS OF HIGH WIND MAY OCCUR BEFORE CONVECTIVE BAND CLEARS THE CST. BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. FARTHER N...MODEST LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER ME LATER TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO REGION. BUT AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND ASSUMPTION OF NEGATIVE TILT WILL KEEP AREA BENEATH LARGELY STRAIGHT UPPER FLOW AND/OR LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING. THUS...DEEP LAYER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED. ...W CST... STRONG IMPULSE NOW NEAR 36N/126W SHOULD MOVE INTO CNTRL CA THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS/MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION. WHILE STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SPOTS OF HAIL...RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..CORFIDI.. 01/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 16:42:26 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 14 Jan 2006 11:42:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601141644.k0EGiASB017679@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141626 SWODY1 SPC AC 141625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI 35 NE AST 40 SE OTH 40 WNW RBL 55 NNE SAC 65 N NID 25 NNE EDW 30 WSW OXR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WEST COAST... LONG WAVE TROUGH NOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WILL SPREAD EWD AS TWO DISTINCT MID/UPPER LOWS MOVE OFF THE ERN PACIFIC. NRN MOST SYSTEM NOW JUST OFF THE BC COAST WILL DIG ESEWD INTO NWRN WA TODAY...AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY -32C H5 COLD POCKET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES AND WILL THUS MAINTAIN FORECAST OF A FEW LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS REGION. SRN SYSTEM IS OVER THE CENTRAL CA COAST ATTM...AND WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF CA TODAY. SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION IS QUITE WIDESPREAD WITH THE CA SYSTEM EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL INHIBIT HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOME BREAKS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER TODAY IN WAKE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN SAC/NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND -28C MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AFTERNOON HEATING MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL. ..EVANS.. 01/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 19:38:57 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 14 Jan 2006 14:38:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601141940.k0EJeeF5027796@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141938 SWODY1 SPC AC 141937 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI 35 NE AST 40 SE OTH 40 WNW RBL 55 NNE SAC 65 N NID 25 NNE EDW 30 WSW OXR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WEST COAST... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WITH TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED NEAR SFO AND JUST NW OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. AN AXIS OF RELATIVELY COLD /-28 TO -34 C AT 500 MB/ TEMPERATURES IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM PUGET SOUND INTO THE CNTRL VALLEY OF CA. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...EXCEPT S AND SE OF SFO WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH THE 50S. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM THE CA CNTRL VALLEY NWD AS INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVERSPREADS DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. FARTHER TO THE N FROM NRN CA INTO WRN WA...CONFIDENCE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT AS HIGH...THOUGH THE PERSISTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. ..MEAD.. 01/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 15 00:34:14 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 14 Jan 2006 19:34:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601150035.k0F0ZwUf016146@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150033 SWODY1 SPC AC 150031 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0631 PM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW BIH 20 WNW NID 30 NW PMD 10 WNW BFL 45 SE FAT 10 NW FAT 70 SSE TVL 10 SSW BIH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...A RIDGE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY...AND TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE WRN ATLANTIC. ...CENTRAL CA... LOCAL HEATING OVER THE SRN CENTRAL VALLEY OF CA BENEATH UPPER COLD POOL HAS YIELDED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- MAINLY CONFINED TO ERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY DIRECTLY ADJACENT TO THE SIERRA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MAIN LIGHTNING THREAT SHIFTING SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME. HOWEVER...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY INTO THIS EVENING. ..GOSS.. 01/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 15 06:00:05 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 15 Jan 2006 01:00:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601150601.k0F61lGD025066@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150558 SWODY1 SPC AC 150557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW P38 10 SW DPG 45 WSW COD 30 NNW GCC 30 ENE PUB 20 SE LVS 45 SE GNT 50 NE DUG 40 E YUM 55 NNE DAG 60 NW P38. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THIS PERIOD...AS WRN U.S. TROUGH TRAVERSES THE ROCKIES WHILE ERN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF WRN U.S. TROUGH. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NWD ACROSS E TX/WRN LA/AR THIS PERIOD...LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD MAINTAIN A LOW-LEVEL CAP PRECLUDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA. THUNDER THREAT THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE ROCKIES BENEATH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ...SWRN U.S. NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. DIURNAL HEATING BENEATH COLD POOL /-28 TO -32 C AT 500 MB/ SHOULD YIELD MARGINAL INSTABILITY -- SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION. THUNDER SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WITH GREATEST THREAT SHIFTING INTO AZ/NM/CO THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 01/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 15 12:52:17 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 15 Jan 2006 07:52:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601151254.k0FCs0sA024449@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151252 SWODY1 SPC AC 151251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2006 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW P38 20 W DPG 35 NNW WEY 15 E SHR 25 WNW LAR 20 NW PUB 20 SE LVS 45 SE GNT 40 NNE SAD 20 NE BLH 55 NNE DAG 60 NW P38. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NOAM. WRN U.S. TROUGH SHOULD FURTHER DEEPEN AS ORE IMPULSE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GRT BASIN AND LEAD DISTURBANCE DAMPENS OVER THE CNTRL RCKYS. AT LWR LEVELS...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING OVER THE CNTRL U.S. SHOULD SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AND SHIFT SE INTO THE LWR MO VLY/CNTRL PLNS. ...GRT BASIN/4 CORNERS/CNTRL RCKYS... SCATTERED DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GRT BASIN AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING ORE TROUGH...WHERE HEATING BENEATH COLD POOL /-28 TO -32 C AT 500 MB/ SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SPOTS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY NOT REACH NRN AZ UNTIL TONIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE SHOULD DOMINATE IN WAKE OF LEAD IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE 4 CORNERS REGION. THE LATER DISTURBANCE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DIURNAL STORMS IN WRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF CO/WY LATER TODAY. ...E TX/LWR MS AND TN VLYS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD N ACROSS E TX AND THE LWR MS VLY THIS PERIOD AS LOW SETTLES SE INTO NEB/MO. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL CAP THE MOISTURE PLUME...PRECLUDING TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SOME ELEVATED /MID LEVEL/ CONVECTION MAY FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE TN VLY AS PACIFIC MOISTURE IS LIFTED ALONG DEVELOPING ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE THUNDER. ..CORFIDI.. 01/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 15 16:18:12 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 15 Jan 2006 11:18:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601151619.k0FGJsaJ028536@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151616 SWODY1 SPC AC 151615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1015 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2006 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW LVS 35 W ONM 55 WSW SOW 30 ENE BLH 60 SW LAS 40 NW P38 30 SSW DPG 55 ESE SLC 30 N VEL 10 NW EGE 35 WNW TAD 20 SSW LVS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WESTERN U.S INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... MID/UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STRONG VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX DIG SEWD TOWARDS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY AND COOL OVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ADJACENT CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN MODEST JANUARY HEATING UNDER VERY COLD MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MOIST CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLIVER OF SBCAPE OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...DESPITE AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S F. THUS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHIFTING SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TROUGH GAINS AMPLITUDE. LATER TONIGHT...SHALLOW...ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION MAY ALSO BEGIN DEVELOPING INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS LLJ STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MUCH IF ANY THUNDER. ..EVANS.. 01/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 15 19:46:32 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 15 Jan 2006 14:46:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601151948.k0FJmDfj021293@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151946 SWODY1 SPC AC 151945 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2006 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE LVS 30 SE TCS 30 ESE SAD 30 ENE BLH 45 SSW LAS 65 WNW P38 35 WNW U24 50 NW PUC VEL 10 NW EGE 35 WNW TAD 55 SSE LVS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INTO 4-CORNERS REGION... AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIGGING SEWD OVER CNTRL/SRN NV WITH ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /I.E. -28 TO -32 C AT 500 MB/ SPREADING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. THIS MID-LEVEL COOLING COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS REGION WHICH IS SUPPORTING A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD OVER SWRN UT INTO NWRN AZ. CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ALONG WITH INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SAME GENERAL AREA. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER SWRN CO INTO NM IN ADVANCE OF MAIN UPPER SYSTEM PROGRESSING SEWD ACROSS REGION. ..MEAD.. 01/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 16 00:58:03 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 15 Jan 2006 19:58:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601160059.k0G0xiUJ024505@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160057 SWODY1 SPC AC 160056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2006 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E 4CR 45 SSE ALM 45 WSW SVC 30 ENE BLH 45 SSW LAS 55 SW SGU 15 WSW CDC 20 SW U28 20 N VEL 10 SE FCL 55 E 4CR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...WITH SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD TOWARD NWRN MEXICO AND THE NRN PORTION MOVING EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES. MEANWHILE...NERN U.S. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/ERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SRN ROCKIES... A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS ERN UTAH...WITH A STRIKE ALSO INDICATED OVER NWRN AZ. LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING INVOF AN UPPER CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SERN UT -- WITHIN LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. AS TROUGH DIGS SEWD WITH TIME...A THREAT FOR SCATTERED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL LIKEWISE SPREAD EWD/SEWD...TOWARD NM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 01/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 16 06:05:41 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 16 Jan 2006 01:05:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601160607.k0G67Kn4016892@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160604 SWODY1 SPC AC 160602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 AM CST MON JAN 16 2006 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE BRO 25 S CRP 25 S BAZ 35 ESE SEP 35 SSE BVX 20 SSE DYR 40 ESE TUP 10 NNW MEI 60 SE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S DMN 30 E TCS 45 ESE 4CR 40 WSW LBB 60 NNW ABI 55 NNW FTW 15 WNW RKR 15 NNW POF 40 NW EVV 30 NNW LUK 50 E LUK 30 SW HTS 25 E LOZ 10 W CHA 15 SSW BHM 50 SW SEM 45 SE PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX EWD INTO THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS.... ...SYNOPSIS... FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AND THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...AIRMASS OVER THE GULF REMAINS ONLY PARTIALLY-MODIFIED. THEREFORE...QUALITY OF MOISTURE ADVECTING NWD INTO THE S CENTRAL CONUS -- AND THUS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY -- SHOULD BE MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS LIMITING OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ...S CENTRAL CONUS... THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS E TX BY MID-AFTERNOON...AS COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY...WITH AOB 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ANTICIPATED -- GREATEST OVER SERN TX. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL BE VERY STRONG...WHICH COMBINED WITH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC VEERING WILL RESULT IN SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THOUGH STORM MODE REMAINS QUESTIONABLE... IT APPEARS ATTM THAT PRIMARY MODE SHOULD BE LINEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER SERN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND INTO SRN LA LATER IN THE PERIOD...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION MAY YIELD PRE-FRONTAL/CELLULAR CONVECTION. ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE 5% TORNADO PROBABILITY ACROSS SERN TX AND SRN LA WHERE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR CELLULAR CONVECTION AND MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN CONVECTIVE LINE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FURTHER AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST...INCREASINGLY MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WITH NWD EXTENT SUGGESTS NWD DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT. MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE -- LIKELY CONTAINING TRANSIENT/SMALL-SCALE LEWPS AND BOWS. THIS THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR N AS THE TN VALLEY...AND SHOULD SWEEP EWD ACROSS MS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 01/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 16 12:59:15 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 16 Jan 2006 07:59:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601161301.k0GD11h3023475@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161258 SWODY1 SPC AC 161257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 AM CST MON JAN 16 2006 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE CRP ALI 20 ESE SAT 25 ESE ACT 40 NW SHV 15 S LLQ 40 SW MEM 45 SSE MKL 50 ENE CBM 20 SE MEI 60 SE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S DMN 30 E TCS 45 ESE 4CR 45 WSW LBB 35 S MAF 60 N DRT 55 WNW AUS 15 SSW FTW 40 W HOT 15 NNW POF 40 NW EVV 30 NNW LUK 50 E LUK 30 SW HTS 25 E LOZ 10 W CHA 15 SSW BHM 50 SW SEM 45 SE PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX INTO THE LWR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW CROSSING AZ/NM SHOULD FURTHER AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS IT CONTINUES E TO THE ERN PLNS AND PHASES WITH NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW DROPPING SE FROM ALBERTA. AT LOWER LEVELS... COLD FRONT NOW STRENGTHENING OVER NW OK/KS AND THE LWR MO VLY SHOULD ACCELERATE SEWD TODAY...REACHING A STL/FSM/DAL LINE BY EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A PREFRONTAL TROUGH/DRY LINE IN TX...AND SHOULD CONTINUE E/SE INTO CNTRL KY/NW AL AND SE LA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ...E TX INTO LWR MS VLY... SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER E/SE TX AND THE WRN GULF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ENHANCING MOISTURE RETURN/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH. BUT LATEST SURFACE DATA AND LOW CLOUD PATTERNS IN SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT QUALITY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER MODEST...WITH AT BEST LOW 60S DEWPOINTS SPREADING NWD INTO E TX/LA AND SRN MS/AL. PRESENCE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LIKELY WILL PROHIBIT SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER TX AND LA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...EXPECT THAT BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND DEPTH...AND EVENTUALLY YIELD THUNDER AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE WRN AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE BAND SHOULD BECOME NEARLY SURFACE-BASED AS HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING/MOISTURE INFLOW FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION. WITH 500 MB SWLY FLOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO AOA 80 KTS...AMPLE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. GIVEN LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD LAYER FLOW...EXPECTED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FORCING /FRONT AND TROUGH/...MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE QUASI-LINEAR WITH EMBEDDED LOW AMPLITUDE LEWPS/BOWS. WHILE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MODEST AND SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS MAY BE SLOW TO EVOLVE OUT OF MORE BENIGN ACTIVITY...STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND LIKELIHOOD FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED UPDRAFTS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. FARTHER E...LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE MAY PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO POTENTIALLY TORNADIC STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND. EWD PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD ALLOW SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES...TO REACH SE LA...SRN/ CNTRL MS AND PERHAPS WRN AL BY 12Z TUESDAY. A MORE LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL EXTEND N INTO TN. ..CORFIDI.. 01/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 16 16:26:40 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 16 Jan 2006 11:26:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601161628.k0GGSKfZ014130@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161623 SWODY1 SPC AC 161621 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 AM CST MON JAN 16 2006 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE PSX 30 N VCT 40 ESE AUS 20 NW CLL 40 S TYR 25 SSE SHV 35 S JAN 20 E ASD 50 SW BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S DMN 25 E TCS 50 NNW ROW 45 WSW LBB 45 S MAF 15 SSE 6R6. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MFE 10 WSW HDO 40 W ACT 40 NNE PRX 15 S UNO 15 SW MVN 30 SW BMG 35 NNE SDF 20 E LEX 10 ENE LOZ 40 NNW HSV 25 NW TCL 35 W GZH 65 S MOB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... ...TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... VERY STRONG TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SWD ACROSS TX TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SUBSTANTIAL ENERGY REMAINS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP TROUGH AXIS POSITIVELY-TILTED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT MORE NEWD TOWARDS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS...SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH H5 WINDS INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 90 KT BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. GULF MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST WITH HIGHEST SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S JUST OFF THE CENTRAL TX COAST. ALSO...12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING WITH 16-20C H85 TEMPERATURES ACROSS SRN/ERN TX. WITH EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION NOW OVERSPREADING ERN TX/NRN LA...HEATING WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST SUGGESTING STRONGER STORMS WILL AWAIT ENHANCED FORCING/COOLING H85-H7 TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TX LATER TODAY WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING TROUGH...A LOW CENTER WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY OVER ERN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND DEVELOP ENEWD INTO CENTRAL/NRN MS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW SURGING SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. MUCAPE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO EXCEED 500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN ALONG WRN AND SWRN FRINGE OF CURRENT LOW LEVEL WAA PRECIPITATION SHIELD EVOLVING OVER THE REGION. GIVEN EXTREME SHEAR AND CO-LOCATION OF LOWER TO MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SOUTHEAST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...ANY STORM WHICH CAN ROOT NEAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BECOME SEVERE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR WIND DAMAGE EVENT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN DEEP ASCENT PLUME...WITH THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT AS BROKEN SQUALL LINE EVOLVES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/LEWP STRUCTURES. ..EVANS.. 01/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 16 20:06:17 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 16 Jan 2006 15:06:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601162007.k0GK7qmB016093@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 162005 SWODY1 SPC AC 162003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 PM CST MON JAN 16 2006 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 ESE CRP 25 ENE PSX 15 NNE HOU 45 NNW BPT 20 SW POE 35 S ESF 15 NNW BTR 30 ESE BTR 35 SE MSY 75 SSW BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW MFE 25 NE COT 20 NW TPL 20 WSW PRX 30 SE FSM 10 S FLP 35 ESE UNO 35 SSW CGI 45 SSE PAH 60 SSW CKV 20 ENE MSL 40 SW TCL 25 NNE MOB 80 ESE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S DMN 25 E TCS 50 NNW ROW 55 NE HOB 45 S MAF 45 SSE 6R6. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX THROUGH SRN LA... ...SERN TX THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN LA... VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE WRN GULF WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...SUGGESTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL IN THE PROCESS OF MODIFICATION. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY FROM SERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE NWD ADVECTION OF THE PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FALLING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN SOME DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE COAST OF EXTREME SERN TX AND LA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE RETURN...MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS ONGOING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LIMIT CAPE TO BELOW 500 J/KG. THE MEAGER INSTABILITY IMPLIES IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN UPRIGHT CONVECTION GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF VERTICAL SHEAR. CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. THIS MAY HELP CONVECTION TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS A LINE FROM EXTREME SE TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM OR TWO FROM SERN TX THROUGH LA FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHERE PROXIMITY TO BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED. ..DIAL.. 01/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 17 00:54:14 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 16 Jan 2006 19:54:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601170055.k0H0tmPp006708@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170053 SWODY1 SPC AC 170052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CST MON JAN 16 2006 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE CRP ALI 25 SSE UTS 45 SE LFK 15 NNW LFT 25 NW MSY 45 ENE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE BRO 45 ENE LRD 10 WNW UTS 20 NW PRX 15 NNW RKR 15 NW RUE 40 W MEM 25 N TUP 45 ENE CBM 15 NNW 0A8 40 NE MOB 45 SSE PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST NEWD/EWD ACROSS COASTAL LA... ...SYNOPSIS... POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS/SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OH/MID AND LOWER MS VALLEYS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARM ADVECTION OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND FRONTAL FORCING FROM E TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...WITH INSTABILITY CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE AND NWD EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SERN TX INTO LA/SRN MS... MAIN SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST -- FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST TO SERN LA...WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND COOLING ALOFT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH ARE RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY /LESS THAN 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/. BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS INVOF COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN/SERN TX FROM ROUGHLY CRP NEWD TOWARD SHV. HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS REMAINED GENERALLY WEAK THUS FAR DUE TO THERMODYNAMIC DEFICIENCY. NONETHELESS...STRONG/VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE -- SUPPORTIVE OR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS -- SUGGESTS THAT A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL REMAIN AS STORMS SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 01/17/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 17 06:12:27 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 17 Jan 2006 01:12:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601170614.k0H6E1kp031980@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170611 SWODY1 SPC AC 170610 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2006 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW HUM 15 SW MSY 30 SW TCL 20 NE BHM 25 ESE ANB 10 ENE LGC 10 W ABY 40 SSW VLD 45 SW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW 7R4 15 SE GWO 10 S BWG 35 NW HTS 15 W BLF 40 SE PSK 40 WSW DCA 10 NNE CXY 25 NNE MSV 20 SSW BDL 45 ESE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 40 SSE CLM 30 E AST 10 ESE EUG 30 NNE MFR 40 WSW EKA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... VERY STRONG/FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME WHILE TAKING ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD TOWARD -- AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS -- THE APPALACHIANS...AS DEEPENING LOW MOVES NWD FROM THE MIDWEST INTO SRN ONTARIO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THIS REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BOTH INVOF FRONT AND WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE TN VALLEY NWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN GENERALLY MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED LOW-LEVEL HEATING...UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD BE GENERALLY INSUFFICIENT FOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. THUS...EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY -- EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST WHERE MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE NEAR 250 J/KG MAY EXIST. THEREFORE...DESPITE STRONG UPPER TROUGH...SHARP COLD FRONT...AND VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...WHERE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITHIN LINE OF STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE GULF COAST...EITHER WITHIN CONVECTIVE LINE OR WITH ANY ISOLATED CELL WITHIN STRONG WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF FRONT. THREAT WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME -- ACROSS AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...BUT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS FRONT APPROACHES THE FL PENINSULA. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS/SERN VA... EXTREME LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE ERN U.S. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND TAKES ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT. ATTM...MODELS SUGGEST THAT MINIMAL INSTABILITY -- POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED -- MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION AS GULF STREAM MOISTURE ADVECTS NNWWD. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH THIS REGION BEARS WATCHING. SHOULD SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND THUS SLIGHTLY GREATER DESTABILIZATION OCCUR...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND/TORNADO THREAT COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 01/17/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 17 12:58:23 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 17 Jan 2006 07:58:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601171259.k0HCxupJ003884@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171257 SWODY1 SPC AC 171256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2006 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE HUM 10 SSE GPT 10 WSW 0A8 20 NE BHM 30 SSW RMG 10 ENE LGC 10 W ABY 45 SSW VLD 50 SW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE BPT 50 NE JAN 10 S BWG 35 NW HTS 15 W BLF 40 SE PSK 40 WSW DCA 10 NNE CXY 25 NNE MSV 20 SSW BDL 45 ESE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BLI 15 ENE SEA 35 ENE AST 10 NNE SLE 20 SSW RDM 50 NNW LKV 40 SSE LMT 40 WSW EKA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE ERN GULF CST REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH EXPECTED TO REACH MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE TODAY AS IT CONTINUES E INTO THE MS VLY. IT SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NE AND ASSUME A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS UPSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E TO THE ROCKIES. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MAY ACCELERATE SOMEWHAT AS IT CROSSES GA AND THE CAROLINAS...BUT THE FEATURE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ANA IN NATURE AS UPPER FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPPER SYSTEM. IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...HEIGHTS SHOULD FALL AND THE DEEP FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE CYCLONIC TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER VORTS NOW NEAR 41N/135W AND 44N/143W REACH THE COAST. ...ERN GULF COAST... EXPECT THAT WIDELY SCATTERED DISCRETE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY IN ZONE OF CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COAST REGION. GULF OF MEXICO BUOY DATA AND STRATOCU CLOUD FIELD IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BOTH SUGGEST...HOWEVER...THAT MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN MODEST...WITH MAXIMUM SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S EXPECTED OVER SRN MS/SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. RECOVERY MAY EVEN BE MORE LIMITED IN GA/N FL...WHERE OVERLAND INFLOW WILL PREVAIL. MODEST DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE ERN GULF REGION. BUT AS AREA VWP DATA SHOW /0-1 KM SRH CURRENTLY GREATER THAN 400 MS/S2 AT KMOB/...KINEMATIC FIELD LIKELY WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION SHOULD DEEP/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS DEVELOP. THUS...LOW CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES FOR A TORNADO OR TWO ARE DEPICTED FOR THE REGION. FARTHER W...WEAK INSTABILITY AND ANA NATURE OF FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP SEVERE THREAT LIMITED WITH NARROW LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT...DESPITE PRESENCE OF 80+ KT DEEP SSWLY SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS...ENHANCEMENT OF STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD INVOF OF CONVECTIVE BAND MAY YIELD DAMAGING...LIKELY NON-THUNDER...WIND GUSTS AS THE ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS. ...ERN CAROLINAS/SE VA... SOME INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION MAY OCCUR DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO OF THE PERIOD OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS AND TIDEWATER VA...WHERE MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL SIMILARLY OCCUR...THIS TIME OFF THE WRN ATLANTIC. AS OVER THE ERN GULF COAST...KINEMATIC FIELD LIKELY WILL BE VERY CONDUCIVE TO BOTH LOW AND MID LEVEL STORM ROTATION AS MID LEVEL SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS TO AOA 90 KTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT STRONG POLAR INTRUSION...AND MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED BY OFFSHORE OBSERVATIONS...LIKELIHOOD FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED SEVERE ACTIVITY APPEARS REMOTE. ..CORFIDI.. 01/17/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 17 16:31:13 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 17 Jan 2006 11:31:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601171632.k0HGWkx5019813@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171630 SWODY1 SPC AC 171628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2006 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW PNS GZH 10 SSE TOI 20 WNW ABY 15 SW MGR 55 ESE AAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CHS 40 ENE CAE 30 SSW GSO LYH 25 SW MRB 35 W CXY 20 S AVP 20 WSW POU 10 NNW BDR 50 SE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW PNS 15 NNW GZH 25 NNW AUO 20 SE LGC 45 ESE VLD 25 SE OCF 45 SSW SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW CLM 35 ENE AST 40 E CEC 75 WNW UKI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN AL...SWRN GA...FL PANHANDLE... ...AL COAST ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE... AIR MASS HAS NOT ADEQUATELY DESTABILIZED ATTM AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT NOW SHIFTING EWD INTO WRN AL. LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK HAS YET TO SAMPLE A CG-STRIKE IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG WEDGE OF ASCENT IS MAINTAINING A NARROW...FORCED-SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER REFLECTIVITY CORES INTO SRN AL. VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE COINCIDENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT RACES EWD AT NEAR 40 KT. THUS...DOWNDRAFTS WITHIN THIS ORGANIZED LINE OF MOIST CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE/MIX-DOWN ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AT LEAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO SERN AL...SWRN GA AND MUCH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MIGHT ALSO OCCUR...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUSTAIN SHALLOW STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL NORTH OF THIS REGION GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND EWD INTO MORE OF FL LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM LIFT NWD. ...COASTAL NC INTO THE DELMARVA... VERY STRONG ASCENT AND EXTREME WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER OVER AND JUST OFF THE NC COAST IS NOT AS MOIST AS WITH THE SYSTEM LATE LAST WEEK. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION FAIL TO PRODUCE MUCH INSTABILITY. ANY MUCAPE PRODUCED IS ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN DEGREE OF FORCING AND STRENGTH OF WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE /80+ KT SLY LLJ/...A NARROW LINE OF MOIST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT MOVING EWD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE. ..EVANS.. 01/17/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 17 19:47:26 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 17 Jan 2006 14:47:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601171949.k0HJmxT1015261@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171946 SWODY1 SPC AC 171944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2006 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE SSI OGB 10 SSE LYH 35 W CXY 30 SSW AVP 20 WSW POU 10 NNW BDR 50 SE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 SSE PNS 30 SW DHN 15 NNE CSG 25 WNW MCN 35 SE MCN 25 SE OCF 70 WSW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 WNW BLI 35 ENE AST 40 E CEC 70 W UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN STATES THROUGH CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC... A LINE OF CONVECTION WITH NO DETECTABLE LIGHTNING FROM CNTRL GA SWWD THROUGH THE WRN FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF GA AND NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR WILL CONTINUE TO BE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S HAS ADVECTED INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA WITH 50S FARTHER NE. MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING MUCAPE TO AOB 300 J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TO IN EXCESS OF 70 KT TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TAKES ON A MORE NEUTRAL TILT AND BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD. SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR COULD BE TRANSFERRED DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN STRONGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM SRN GA INTO PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED. ...CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AREA... NRN PORTION OF THE LINE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WRN CAROLINAS HAS DIMINISHED OWING TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTING LACK OF INSTABILITY. SOME INCREASE MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN CAROLINAS AS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STREAM IS ADVECTED INLAND ALONG INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WITH MUCAPES EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 300 J/KG. POCKETS OF HIGHER MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING 80+ KT LOW LEVEL JET COULD BE TRANSFERRED DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE BANDS. HOWEVER...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERNIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..DIAL.. 01/17/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 18 01:13:12 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 17 Jan 2006 20:13:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601180114.k0I1Ek69007562@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180112 SWODY1 SPC AC 180110 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0710 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2006 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S CHS 35 WSW SOP 20 ESE LYH 15 NNE BWI 35 SSE JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CTY 10 WSW VLD 35 WNW AYS 25 SE OCF 40 SSW SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 WNW BLI 35 ENE AST 40 E CEC 70 W UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN CAROLINAS/SERN VA... EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS INDICATED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES...WITHIN VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. AS TROUGH CONTINUES EWD WITH TIME...AND TAKES ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT...WIND FIELD -- PARTICULARLY ALOFT -- SHOULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER. DESPITE THIS...INSTABILITY IS FOR THE MOST PART NONEXISTENT ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ATTM -- BASED ON EVENING RAOBS AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND CONFIRMED BY LACK OF LIGHTNING WITHIN ONGOING PRECIPITATION. WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS INDICATED OFF THE SC COAST...NWWD ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MAY ALLOW A VERY MINIMAL AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION -- PERHAPS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. GIVEN STRENGTH OF WINDS/SHEAR...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE -- EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF CG LIGHTNING -- THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 01/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 18 06:13:06 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 18 Jan 2006 01:13:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601180614.k0I6Eah1022247@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180610 SWODY1 SPC AC 180608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 AM CST WED JAN 18 2006 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE EWN 10 NE ECG 20 ENE NHK 10 SW ABE 30 NE MSV 25 SE RUT 10 W PWM 50 SE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW UIL 25 E AST 55 SW PDT 45 SSE SMN COD 30 S 81V 25 SSE CYS 25 SSW GUC 35 E MLF 45 WSW U31 35 W ACV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE/NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY NEWD...MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A BROADER/LESS-AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT -- ASSOCIATED WITH ERN U.S. TROUGH -- IS FORECAST FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION AND THEN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY MID MORNING...AND THEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ...MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND... LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST/SRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...THOUGH A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY OCCUR...SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY. ...PAC NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES... COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES THIS PERIOD...AND RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES/MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION -- PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ..GOSS.. 01/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 18 12:51:56 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 18 Jan 2006 07:51:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601181253.k0ICrQHG023081@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181251 SWODY1 SPC AC 181250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 AM CST WED JAN 18 2006 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE ACY 30 ENE ABE 35 SW ALB 25 SE RUT 10 W PWM 50 SE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW UIL 25 E AST 25 SW RDM 30 SE BNO 10 S IDA 50 SSW BPI 55 N PUC 25 ENE U24 40 SSE P68 45 WNW TVL 70 WSW UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE LWR 48 AS DEEP ERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT ENE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM FROM TROUGH COMPLEX NOW APPROACHING THE ORE/NRN CA CST. ...ERN U.S... LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT CHARGE SEPARATION/THUNDER ALONG LONG-LIVED PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND NOW CROSSING NJ. FRONTAL- TYPE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF/ INTERMITTENT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF INTENSE /80+ KT/ LLJ OVER THE LWR HUDSON VLY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. BUT POTENTIAL FOR TRUE SEVERE CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED. FARTHER W...SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ALOFT AND TIGHTENING OF MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE AS UPPER TROUGH ASSUMES MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT MAY PROMOTE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT UNTIL THAT FEATURE CLEARS THE SRN NEW ENG CST LATE IN THE DAY. ...ORE/NRN CA TO NRN GRT BASIN... VERY COOL /BELOW MINUS 30 C AT 500 MB/ AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY UPR VORT NOW JUST OFF THE SW ORE CST AS THAT FEATURE CONTINUES ESE INTO SRN ORE/NRN CA LATER TODAY. SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SUGGEST PRESENCE OF A SECONDARY IMPULSE MERGING WITH THE LEAD ONE INVOF 40N/128W. RESULTING FAST/DEEP ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION/STORMS ALONG THE ORE CASCADES/CSTL RANGES SWD INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN CA. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ALSO OCCUR E OF THE SIERRA IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SPOTS OVER SE ORE...SRN ID... NRN NV AND NRN UT LATER TODAY. ..CORFIDI.. 01/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 18 16:21:46 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 18 Jan 2006 11:21:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601181623.k0IGNEYX005002@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181620 SWODY1 SPC AC 181619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 AM CST WED JAN 18 2006 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW HQM 40 ESE EUG 20 NE AAT 25 WSW NFL 15 NNW FAT 30 WSW MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PAC NW INTO NRN CA... INTENSE MID/UPPER LOW NOW DIGGING ESEWD INTO WRN ORE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET NOW NOSING INTO NRN CA WILL LIKEWISE SETTLE SSEWD THROUGH THE DAY WITH AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS OVERSPREADING CENTRAL CA. MID LEVEL COOLING WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS AXIS AND SHOULD SUPPORT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND A FEW LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST. BREAKS IN CLOUDS IN WAKE OF PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT LOWER 50F SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE SAC VALLEY BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...UNDER -30C TO -32C H5 TEMPERATURES. RESULTANT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SBCAPE FROM 500-750 J/KG OVER THIS REGION...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MID LEVEL ROTATION WITH STRONGER CORES. THEREFORE...HAIL NEAR OR JUST EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY PERSISTENT UPDRAFT TODAY IN THE SAC VALLEY...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED. ..EVANS.. 01/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 18 19:37:53 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 18 Jan 2006 14:37:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601181939.k0IJdQQb026823@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181937 SWODY1 SPC AC 181935 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 PM CST WED JAN 18 2006 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W ONP 25 NNE MFR 40 S AAT 20 SSW NFL 15 NNW FAT 30 WSW MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SACRAMENTO VALLEY... CLOUD BREAKS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE HEATING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S. MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -30C EXISTS ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE LIGHTNING SO FAR HAS BEEN NEAR THE COAST WHERE INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER HAS RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE PROBABLE OVER THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL.. 01/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 19 00:23:50 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 18 Jan 2006 19:23:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601190025.k0J0PI5i025615@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190021 SWODY1 SPC AC 190019 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0619 PM CST WED JAN 18 2006 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW NFL 30 E TPH 30 SSW DRA 35 WSW NID 50 SSW MER 25 E UKI 40 SW MHS 40 E MHS 20 WNW NFL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA... DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO AND NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN THE SHORT TERM...STEEP LAPSE RATES NORTH OF STRONG JET WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT TRENDS HOWEVER SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO WANE. ...ME... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED ALONG LEADING EDGE OF WIND SHIFT OVER WRN ME. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCELS ARE BEING LIFTED NEAR 850MB WITHIN STRONG WARM ADVECTION LAYER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROVE EXTREMELY SPARSE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO SERN CANADA SHORTLY. ..DARROW.. 01/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 19 05:34:34 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 19 Jan 2006 00:34:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601190536.k0J5a1oV018034@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190527 SWODY1 SPC AC 190525 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CST WED JAN 18 2006 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ALS 30 NNE 4SL 70 WNW GUP 35 ENE GCN 10 SSW BCE 55 NW 4HV 45 ENE PUC 35 WSW CAG 35 NW 4FC 35 NW COS 20 ESE ALS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...4-CORNERS/CO... LATE EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING STEADILY SEWD ACROSS NRN CA INTO THE GREAT BASIN AS STRONGER HIGH LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD NRN AZ. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NORTH OF THIS JET WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION LATER TODAY ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION WILL FALL AS HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING. THIS SHOULD BE STRONGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO SPREAD EAST OF THE ROCKIES. ...PAC NW... ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL APPROACH THE WA COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT ONSHORE AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH COOLING PROFILES AND INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR LOW TOPPED CONVECTION. EVEN SO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR LIGHTING WILL HOLD OFFSHORE DURING THE PERIOD DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY. ..DARROW.. 01/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 19 13:05:36 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 19 Jan 2006 08:05:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601191307.k0JD71KN019619@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191303 SWODY1 SPC AC 191302 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 AM CST THU JAN 19 2006 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ALS 30 NNE 4SL 70 WNW GUP 35 ENE GCN 10 SSW BCE 55 NW 4HV 45 ENE PUC 35 WSW CAG 35 NW 4FC 35 NW COS 20 ESE ALS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN BRANCH OF THE POLAR WLYS ACROSS THE WRN GRT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD TO THE SRN ROCKIES BY EVENING. THIS IMPULSE WILL WEAKLY PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM AS IT BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z FRI. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD THE WA COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...FOUR CORNERS REGION... ELKO NV SOUNDING SAMPLED AROUND MINUS 32 DEGREE C H5 TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE HEART OF THE GREAT BASIN IMPULSE THIS MORNING. THESE STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD TO THE N OF THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC JET AXIS THIS AFTN. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING PEAK HEATING. HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE WLY UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES WILL ENHANCE LIFT. ...WA COAST... FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE ONSHORE AFT 06Z ACROSS WRN WA WITH GRADUAL COOLING PROFILES EXPECTED VERY LATE TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL LAG OFFSHORE OR NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD...LESSENING THE RISK FOR TSTMS FOR THE COASTAL AREA. ..RACY.. 01/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 19 15:40:27 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 19 Jan 2006 10:40:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601191541.k0JFfpCj018270@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191539 SWODY1 SPC AC 191537 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0937 AM CST THU JAN 19 2006 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER LOW NOW DIGGING SEWD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL AMPLIFY MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT OVERSPREADS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. MID LEVEL AIR REMAINS QUITE COLD WITH THIS FEATURE AND WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY...INCREASING COVERAGE OF MOIST CONVECTION INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. HOWEVER... BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS COOL AND DRY AND 12Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY CAPE ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES TO BE SPORADIC AT BEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALONG THE PAC NW COAST... ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH NWRN WA LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST. ..EVANS.. 01/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 19 19:45:40 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 19 Jan 2006 14:45:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601191947.k0JJl3oo026180@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191944 SWODY1 SPC AC 191942 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CST THU JAN 19 2006 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN US EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING WAVE...A SFC LOW IS PRESENT IN THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE FROM EAST TX EXTENDING NNEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 01/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 20 00:34:01 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 19 Jan 2006 19:34:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601200035.k0K0ZSsh031746@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200032 SWODY1 SPC AC 200030 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CST THU JAN 19 2006 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE 4-CORNERS REGION INDICATE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...ON THE ORDER OF 8-9C/KM...HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS APPEARS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITHIN MOIST CONVEYOR FROM NRN NM INTO CNTRL CO. DESPITE WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED EARLIER ALONG THE NM/CO LINE. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO THESE STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND CONCENTRATION OF LIGHTNING WILL PROVE TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT A PROBABILITY OF THUNDER. ..DARROW.. 01/20/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 20 05:40:37 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2006 00:40:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601200541.k0K5fwLw022125@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200540 SWODY1 SPC AC 200538 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 PM CST THU JAN 19 2006 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE PBF 40 NNW ELD 30 NW DEQ 25 S TUL 40 NNW BVO TOP 30 WNW CDJ MMO 10 NNE TOL 10 WNW CLE 35 W HLG 30 SSE UNI LEX 30 WNW BWG 15 ESE DYR 10 NE PBF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S 7R4 25 ESE MCB 15 SSE MEI 20 WSW SEM 30 N CEW 50 S PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID MS VALLEY... LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CNTRL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EWD ACROSS KS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL SPEED MAX INTENSIFIES DOWNSTREAM. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...MAINLY ACROSS MO/NRN AR INTO OH/LOWER MI WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM.../ENHANCED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE JET AXIS. 20/00Z NAM MODEL IS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM SERN TX INTO AR. ALTHOUGH FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THIS REGION WILL ALLOW LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN AHEAD OF FRONT INTO SRN MO WHERE SFC DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE 50S BY PEAK HEATING. LATEST THINKING IS A NARROW AXIS OF SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY NORTH OF JET AXIS WHERE STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE NOTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SRN MO IN PARTICULAR INDICATE NEAR SFC-BASED UPDRAFTS WILL EVOLVE WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH MUCAPES WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN 500J/KG. A FEW TSTMS OR DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD GENERATE STRONG WINDS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW/COLD FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH INTO ERN TX/LA...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION WILL SUPPRESS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LATE IN THE PERIOD PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW/MOISTENING MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST REGION. ..DARROW.. 01/20/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 20 12:54:07 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2006 07:54:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601201255.k0KCtaX9018102@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201252 SWODY1 SPC AC 201251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PBF 35 W HOT 10 SSW RKR 30 S GMJ 20 S CNU 25 SSW TOP 15 NNW FNB 20 SE DBQ 40 SSW JXN 25 E FDY 10 SSW CMH 55 ESE LUK LEX 30 WNW BWG 15 ESE DYR 20 N PBF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S 7R4 25 ESE MCB 15 SSE MEI 20 WSW SEM 30 N CEW 50 S PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SW KS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE ENEWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ESEWD FROM THE PAC NW TO THE CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES. A SURFACE CYCLONE IN NW OK THIS MORNING WILL DEVELOP ENEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING MID LEVEL WAVE...AND ALONG A L0W-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL MO/IL BY THIS EVENING...REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING NWD IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS E TX/OK/AR/LA...WHERE A PREVIOUS CONTINENTAL AIR MASS HAS MODIFIED TO DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE TX COAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS TO BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER-MID 50S ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU WHERE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW/MID LEVEL WAVE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR /MUCAPE VALUES LESS THAN 250 J/KG/...WITH SOME L0W-TOPPED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FROM THE WRN MO AREA ENEWD ALONG THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW. 40-50 KT L0W-LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION BASED NEAR THE GROUND...THOUGH THE SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AT BEST. FARTHER N...STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT SNOW BANDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NE KS ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA BY THIS AFTERNOON. ..THOMPSON.. 01/20/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 20 16:25:17 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2006 11:25:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601201626.k0KGQbw2003229@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201624 SWODY1 SPC AC 201622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1022 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE PBF 35 W HOT 10 SSW RKR 30 S GMJ 20 S CNU 10 NE TOP 35 SE SDA 20 SE DBQ 40 NNE FWA 25 S FDY 45 SW CMH 50 ENE LEX 50 SSW LEX 30 N BNA 20 SSW MKL 15 NNE PBF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S 7R4 25 ESE MCB 15 SSE MEI 20 WSW SEM 30 N CEW 50 S PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... COLD UPPER TROUGH NOW EXITING CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ACCELERATE AND DE AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES TO OH VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NERN OK ALSO MOVES RAPIDLY ENEWD AND PROGGED TO BE INTO WRN NY BY 12Z SAT. ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL OK TO SWRN TEXAS SWEEPS SEWD TO EXTEND FROM OH RIVER VALLEY TO TX COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. MODEST MOISTURE RETURN UNDERWAY FROM SRN PLAINS NEWD TO OZARK PLATEAU WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. WARM SECTOR INITIALLY STRONGLY CAPPED THUS ONLY ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING NRN MO WHERE STRONG WARM ADVECTION UNDERWAY TO N OF FRONTAL ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE OK LOW ENEWD TO SRN IL. BY THIS AFTERNOON SUFFICIENT HEATING ALONG WITH THE LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ENEWD TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR NEAR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OZARK PLATEAU. HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER WITH MLCAPES NO HIGHER THAN 100-200 J/KG. STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS AREA SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS STORM MOTION EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 40KT. HOWEVER UPDRAFT INTENSITY WILL BE WEAK LIMITING ANY SEVERE THREAT TO JUST WIND GUSTS. WHAT THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER OZARK PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE A LIMITED WIND THREAT EWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY THIS EVENING PRIOR TO BECOMING ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE INTO AREA OF EVEN WEAKER INSTABILITY. ..HALES.. 01/20/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 21 00:56:48 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2006 19:56:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601210058.k0L0wB8S013852@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210055 SWODY1 SPC AC 210054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE PBF 35 W HOT 25 E FSM 15 SSW SGF 25 SE SZL 20 SE IRK 15 SE MLI 20 SE RFD 40 S AZO 25 S FDY 45 SW CMH 50 ENE LEX 50 SSW LEX 30 N BNA 20 SSW MKL 15 NNE PBF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S 7R4 15 SE JAN 20 NNE MEI 15 WNW SEM 30 N CEW 50 S PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE AUS 40 NNE CLL 25 ESE GGG 35 WSW IER 25 NNE HOU 40 N PSX 45 NW VCT 25 SSE AUS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID MS VALLEY... LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY FROM CNTRL MO INTO NWRN AR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG THIS LINE DESPITE THE MEAGER INSTABILITY NOTED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS AND DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS...ON THE ORDER OF 100-200J/KG. IT APPEARS UPDRAFTS MAY ACTUALLY BE ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE SFC THUS ANY TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COULD BE HAMPERED DUE TO MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT ANY RATE...SQUALL LINE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SERN MO AND NRN AR BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING EAST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE INSTABILITY IS HARDLY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. ...GULF COAST... SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED BENEATH RESTRICTIVE LAYER OF INHIBITION AT MID LEVELS OVER SERN TX THIS EVENING. OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR A FEW UPDRAFTS HAVE INTENSIFIED AND PRODUCED LIGHTNING NEAR CLL...NW OF HOUSTON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT AND MAY AT TIMES GENERATE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BEFORE DISSIPATING CLOSER TO THE LA BORDER. FARTHER EAST...SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITHIN MOIST FEED OFF THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY. ..DARROW.. 01/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 21 05:35:47 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 21 Jan 2006 00:35:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601210537.k0L5b5j0017251@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210535 SWODY1 SPC AC 210533 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S PSX 10 W SAT 20 WNW JCT 35 NNE SJT 60 SW SPS 15 WSW ADM 30 NE PRX 30 ESE ELD 20 NNW JAN 30 E MEI 35 NNW MGM 15 E LGC 25 SSW MCN 10 SSW ABY 55 SE PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF COAST STATES... SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF EJECTING UPPER SPEED MAX. THIS WILL FORCE SFC FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WHILE SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED FARTHER WEST ALONG TRAILING BOUNDARY ALONG THE TX COAST LATE. IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST REGION BEFORE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO FOCUS MUCH FARTHER WEST IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT APPEARS DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED EARLY IN THE PERIOD JUST OFF THE LA COAST INTO SRN MS. WITH TIME WARM ADVECTION IN RESPONSE TO NM/NRN MEXICO SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN TX. AFTER DARK LLJ WILL INCREASE OVER CNTRL TX AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE THAN ADEQUATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. PARCELS LIFTED NEAR...OR EVEN ABOVE 700 MB...WILL YIELD AT LEAST SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE. GIVEN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME...AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION MAINLY AFTER 00Z...THEN SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 01/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 21 12:47:06 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 21 Jan 2006 07:47:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601211248.k0LCmLGY002838@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211246 SWODY1 SPC AC 211244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2006 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE BRO 25 WSW HDO 35 SW JCT 30 ESE SJT 45 W MWL 30 WSW GYI 20 SE PRX 30 E ELD 40 ESE GWO 25 WSW GAD 40 E AHN 40 SW AGS 40 SW VDI MGR 40 WSW PFN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WAVE OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EWD TO W TX BY EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND EXTREME NW GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE OH VALLEY SYSTEM...AND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD GRADUALLY STALL BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES TX. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST WAA REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH TIME ACROSS E TX AND THE GULF STATES...WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE STORM THREAT. ..THOMPSON.. 01/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 21 16:25:13 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 21 Jan 2006 11:25:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601211626.k0LGQTkX016530@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211624 SWODY1 SPC AC 211623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2006 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE BRO 25 WSW HDO 35 SW JCT 30 ESE SJT 45 W MWL 30 WSW GYI 15 SSW DEQ 15 S PBF 45 WSW CBM 35 N MGM 25 SSE AUO 10 NNE MAI 40 WSW PFN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...EAST TX AND LOWER MS VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NATION TODAY...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NV/UT. THIS FEATURE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT... ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM EAST TX INTO PARTS OF LA/AR/MS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN AL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. ..HART.. 01/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 21 19:48:04 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 21 Jan 2006 14:48:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601211949.k0LJnItt013780@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211947 SWODY1 SPC AC 211945 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2006 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE BRO 25 WSW HDO 35 SW JCT 30 ESE SJT 45 W MWL 30 WSW GYI 15 SSW DEQ 15 S PBF 45 WSW CBM 35 N MGM 25 SSE AUO 10 NNE MAI 40 WSW PFN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL/EAST TX AND LOWER MS VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE SWRN STATES/NRN BAJA REGION...WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS AL/GA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...NOW OVER THE WRN GULF...WILL RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND SRN LA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NERN GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER FARTHER WEST FROM EAST TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY. SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM CENTRAL/E TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...ENHANCING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION. THUS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE TX COAST THIS PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/E TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 01/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 22 00:36:40 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 21 Jan 2006 19:36:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601220037.k0M0bs4R005548@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220035 SWODY1 SPC AC 220034 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2006 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E BRO 35 SW HDO 60 WSW JCT 25 SW SJT 25 NE ABI 35 WSW GYI 35 SW DEQ 30 NE ELD 45 WSW CBM 35 N MGM 25 SSE AUO 10 NNE MAI 40 WSW PFN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES... AMPLIFYING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER AZ/WRN NM INTO NRN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE S TX COAST NEWD THROUGH SERN LA INTO CNTRL GA WILL RETREAT NWD OVERNIGHT TO VICINITY OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COAST...NEWD ACROSS CNTRL MS/AL BY 22/12Z. 00Z BRO/CRP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A RATHER MOIST AIR MASS ABOVE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION. STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ OVERNIGHT WILL ENHANCE NWD TRANSPORT OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WELL INLAND. A CONCURRENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INITIALLY ACROSS SRN/CNTRL TX AND EVENTUALLY EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A STORM EARLIER OVER THE MIDDLE TX COAST PRODUCED SEVERE HAIL AND SOME THREAT FOR SIMILAR OCCURRENCES WILL EXIST WITH AXIS OF STRONGEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND NO HAIL PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED. ..MEAD.. 01/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 22 05:41:39 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 22 Jan 2006 00:41:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601220542.k0M5gpL9003729@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220540 SWODY1 SPC AC 220539 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2006 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE BRO 20 N ALI 45 NW BAZ 25 WNW SEP 50 NNW FTW 20 ESE ADM 45 WNW DEQ 30 WSW HOT 55 E LIT 15 WNW MKL 30 SSE CKV 45 NW CSV 20 SW TYS 50 NW AND 10 E AHN 40 ENE MCN 35 ENE ABY 25 NW TLH 55 WSW AAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER THE CONUS DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD. IN THE W...A REX-TYPE BLOCK WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE...WHILE FARTHER E OVER THE PLAINS INTO MS VALLEY... DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL MOVE EWD INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE NATION. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE TX COAST WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG INTENSIFYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO CNTRL OR NRN MS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY MORNING. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE INITIALLY OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...LOWER BRANCH OF COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK CIRCULATION WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD ZONE OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD OVER THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS. THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM N OF THE SURFACE FRONT SWD INTO THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR. DESPITE THE INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND RESULTANT MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPES OF 500-800 J/KG FORECAST BY AFTERNOON FROM ERN LA INTO MS AND AL. IT APPEARS THAT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF MIGRATORY...WEAK SURFACE LOW WHERE LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED. THE STRONGEST/MOST ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO OR TWO AND/OR MARGINAL WIND/HAIL...PRIOR TO AIR MASS SLOWLY STABILIZING OVERNIGHT. SHOULD IT BECOME APPARENT ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THAN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...PORTIONS OF REGION MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. ..MEAD.. 01/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 22 12:51:00 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 22 Jan 2006 07:51:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601221252.k0MCqCNo031837@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221250 SWODY1 SPC AC 221249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE BRO 30 WSW ALI 20 S JCT 30 WSW ABI 45 WSW SPS 25 NNE SPS 20 SW MLC 35 ESE FSM 25 ESE BVX 30 NE DYR 10 SE CKV 45 NW CSV 20 SW TYS 50 NW AND 10 E AHN 15 ENE MCN 30 NNE ABY 15 WNW MAI 40 WSW PFN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER W TX THIS MORNING WILL EJECT ENEWD AROUND THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST...AND IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SWD OVER CENTRAL CA. THE W TX WAVE WILL REACH THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PERSIST ACROSS AL/MS/LA AND THE NW GULF INTO TONIGHT. WAA NW OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS BASED AOB THE 850 MB LEVEL. THOUGH INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM AND MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG COULD SUPPORT A ELEVATED FEW STORMS WITH HAIL. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE BASED NEAR THE GROUND...ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR...THOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MARGINAL. ..THOMPSON.. 01/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 22 16:11:00 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 22 Jan 2006 11:11:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601221612.k0MGCCUI030250@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221609 SWODY1 SPC AC 221608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S PSX 30 S SAT 30 NE JCT ABI 25 NNE SPS 35 ESE FSM 20 N BWG 10 NNE HTS 20 W SSU 40 SSE PSK 30 W CLT 10 WSW CSG 45 SSW PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER IS FORECAST TO ROTATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY. SEVERAL WEAKER MID LEVEL IMPULSES ARE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM TX INTO THE TN VALLEY. THESE FEATURES WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM EAST TX INTO TN. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...MAINTAINING LIFT AND AIDING RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY SHOW ONLY WEAK LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGEST STORMS. GREATEST THREAT OF SURFACE-BASED SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL THIS EVENING. EVEN HERE...WEAK INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A CATEGORICAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. ..HART.. 01/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 22 19:59:52 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 22 Jan 2006 14:59:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601222001.k0MK17Oq004674@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221958 SWODY1 SPC AC 221957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S LCH 15 E LCH 40 S ESF 20 WSW HEZ 20 NNE MCB 20 NE ASD 55 SE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S PSX 30 S SAT 35 E JCT 40 NW SEP 30 W ADM 30 E RKR 25 ESE FLP 20 NNW BWG 35 NNE CRW 25 ENE SSU 35 SW GSO 20 SW GSP 10 WSW AUO 45 SSW PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN/SERN LA INTO PARTS OF FAR SRN MS... ...SYNOPSIS... EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WAVY BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM FAR ERN KY WSWWD TO NRN MS AND THEN SSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL MS TO SWRN LA AND THE UPPER TX COASTAL AREA TO A SURFACE LOW LOCATED EAST OF PSX. IN ADDITION...A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE EXTENDED FROM THE NWRN GULF /S OF LA/ NWD TO SOUTH CENTRAL LA/SWRN MS WHERE IT INTERSECTED THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TROUGH HAD STARTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVED ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...OVERALL LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED TROUGHS WITHIN SWLY FLOW FROM THE WRN GULF TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEWD FROM ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY. ...SRN LA/PARTS OF SRN MS... SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S/ WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN FURTHER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG EXPECTED ACROSS SERN LA TO FAR SRN MS. MODIFIED RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THESE CONDITIONS SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE CONFLUENT ZONE AND/OR AHEAD OF THE PSX SURFACE LOW/ATTENDANT BAROCLINIC ZONE WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURE. THUS... HAVE INCREASED THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES/ADDED A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SRN/SERN LA INTO FAR SRN MS. MODIFIED AREA VAD DATA WITH CURRENT SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INDICATED 0-3 KM SRH VALUES TO AROUND 300 M2/S2 TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO A THREAT FOR WINDS AND/OR HAIL. WEAKER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FARTHER N INTO NERN MS/NWRN AL AND ALSO WWD ACROSS ERN TX SUGGESTS THESE REGIONS WILL HAVE A SMALLER PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 01/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 23 05:18:36 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2006 00:18:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060123051945.431098B366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230517 SWODY1 SPC AC 230515 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SW HUM 40 WNW JAN 15 SSW TUP 35 SSW CSV 20 NE HSS 25 NNW DAN 60 SSE WAL ...CONT... 45 ENE SGJ 60 SSW CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY A REX-TYPE BLOCK INTO THE W AND THE INTENSIFICATION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SERN STATES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST WILL SHIFT EWD TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA BY TUESDAY MORNING. ...CNTRL GULF COAST STATES INTO CAROLINAS... PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING INITIALLY FROM THE ERN TN VALLEY INTO MS/AL WITHIN REGION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY. INFLUX OF MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER PRECIPITATION SHIELD. FARTHER TO THE E IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...INCREASINGLY SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EFFECTIVE ERODE PIEDMONT FRONT WITH AIR MASS DESTABILIZING FROM ERN GA NWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SEPARATE AREA OF TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WELL IN ADVANCE OF PRIMARY FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THIS COASTAL AREA WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPES OF 500-800 J/KG. FORECAST WIND PROFILES INDICATE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED. THEREFORE...NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED. ..MEAD.. 01/23/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 23 12:58:07 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2006 07:58:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060123125918.414268B366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231257 SWODY1 SPC AC 231255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE SGJ 60 SSW CTY ...CONT... 80 SW HUM 30 WSW JAN 20 NNW CBM 30 WNW RMG 20 S AVL 20 SSW DAN 60 SSE WAL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A HIGH OVER LOW BLOCK IS EVOLVING OVER THE PAC COAST AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE PAC NW AND A CLOSED LOW FORMS OVER SRN CA. FARTHER E...A LOW AMPLITUDE SPEED MAX IS EJECTING EWD/ENEWD FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM SE MS TO SRN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SWRN FRINGE OF THE LARGER RAIN BAND ACROSS THE MS/AL AREA...WHERE REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL MUCAPE IN THE RANGE OF 250-1000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES...THOUGH STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO TEND TO WEAKEN BY LATER TODAY...THE COMBINATION OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS TODAY FROM SRN AL INTO S GA. ..THOMPSON.. 01/23/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 23 16:13:33 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2006 11:13:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060123161442.D1EBB8B381@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231610 SWODY1 SPC AC 231608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S HUM 40 S JAN 20 NNW CBM 30 WNW RMG 20 S AVL 20 SSW DAN 60 SSE WAL ...CONT... 45 ENE SGJ 60 SSW CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KY/TN. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...LEAVING A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF FRONT SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG...ALONG WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS SUGGESTS A RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...DESPITE WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FEW INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA/NORTH FL THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED...PRECLUDING A CATEGORICAL RISK AT THIS TIME. ..HART.. 01/23/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 23 19:58:57 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2006 14:58:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060123200006.32E958B39B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231957 SWODY1 SPC AC 231956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CST MON JAN 23 2006 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE SGJ 60 SSW CTY ...CONT... 40 SW BVE GPT SEM RMG HKY GSO 45 E ORF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO OK AND NM...AND REX FORMATION OVER PACIFIC COAST. AT SFC...WAVY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM COASTAL CAROLINAS WSWWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL GA AS WARM FRONT...WITH RELATIVELY COLD/STABLE AIR MASS OF OROGRAPHIC DAMMING EVIDENT TO ITS N. FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER CENTRAL AL IS DIFFUSE AND WILL REMAIN SO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY ENEWD ALONG NWD-DRIFTING PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SRN AL AND FL PANHANDLE. SECOND/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...AL AND SRN MS...MERGING WITH WRN PORTIONS OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. ...SERN CONUS... MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN SMALL BANDS AND CLUSTERS ANTICIPATED. AS BOTH THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC SUPPORT WEAKENS...CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL DECLINE GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH SO FAR N AND W OF AREA...LACK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC ASCENT INDICATES ANY SIGNIFICANT STEEPENING OF THESE LAPSE RATES MUST ARISE FROM BOUNDARY LAYER DIABATIC PROCESSES...WHICH ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THIS REGION. WITH HEATING INTO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG AND S OF SFC WARM FRONT - AND DEW POINTS HOLDING IN MID/UPPER 60S AS MOIST ADVECTION MIXING LARGELY COUNTERBALANCE ONE ANOTHER...MLCAPES UP TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH 0-6 KM LAYER SHEARS RANGING FROM AROUND 40-55 KT...HIGHEST ALONG WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE OBSERVED WEAKNESS IN LOW LEVEL WINDS...AND ASSOCIATED LIMITING OF HODOGRAPH SIZE IN BOUNDARY LAYER. SFC ISALLOBARIC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS FROM SRN GA AND NRN FL NEWD...WEIGHTED TOWARD AREA N OF WARM FRONT AND FCST TO SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE VEERING OF WARM SECTOR WINDS AND CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN BOTH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND IN CONVERGENCE. THESE OFFSETTING FACTORS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON...WITH MARGINAL PROBABILITIES CONCENTRATED MAINLY NEAR WARM FRONT WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED. A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LIMITS ...HOWEVER ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO MARGINAL/ISOLATED FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK UPGRADE ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 01/23/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 24 00:42:30 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2006 19:42:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060124004340.50A528B395@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240041 SWODY1 SPC AC 240039 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 PM CST MON JAN 23 2006 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE SGJ 60 SSW CTY ...CONT... 40 SW PFN 30 NW PFN 40 SSW CSG 35 E ATL 10 WSW CLT 30 NW SOP 60 E ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN STATES... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING ALONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SERN AL INTO FAR SRN SC...AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY ATOP STABLE SURFACE AIR MASS /REF 00Z ATL SOUNDING/ OVER CNTRL GA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS GRADUALLY DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS OWING TO WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING /WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NE/ AND COOLING AND RESULTANT STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER. A CONTINUED DECREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING AS AIR MASS STABILIZES FURTHER OVER SERN AL AND GA...AND LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FROM SRN SC INTO ERN NC MOVES EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC. ..MEAD.. 01/24/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 24 05:05:29 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 24 Jan 2006 00:05:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060124050640.7412D8B385@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240504 SWODY1 SPC AC 240502 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 PM CST MON JAN 23 2006 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 S GBN 20 SSW GBN 45 NW GBN 45 NE BLH 10 SSE EED 35 NNW IGM 65 W GCN 10 NE GCN 25 NNE INW 50 S DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER THE CONUS DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD. BREAKDOWN OF ERN PACIFIC/WRN U.S. AND CANADA BLOCK WILL OCCUR AS HIGH LATITUDE RIDGE SHIFTS EWD AND CUTOFF LOW / CURRENTLY OFF THE SRN CA COAST / BEGINS LIFTING NEWD IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SYSTEM NOW NEAR 150W/40N. IN THE E...LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD. ...AZ/NM... 24/00Z NKX/TUS SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING NECESSARY FOR ANY THREAT OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PRIMARY MOISTENING WILL OCCUR VIA ADVECTION OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE /I.E. ABOVE 700 MB/ FROM S AND SW OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE ERN PACIFIC. WITH TIME...EXPECT THIS FEED OF MOISTURE TO BECOME COINCIDENT WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE TONIGHT / AFTER 25/06Z / AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACTS ON THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ..MEAD.. 01/24/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 24 12:56:18 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 24 Jan 2006 07:56:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060124125721.D22AC8B38E@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241255 SWODY1 SPC AC 241253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2006 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 S GBN 20 SSW GBN 45 NW GBN 45 NE BLH 10 SSE EED 35 NNW IGM 65 W GCN 15 SSW GCN 30 S INW 55 ESE DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A REX BLOCK OVER THE PAC COAST...AND A DEEPENING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE MID LEVEL LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE ERN PAC. MEANWHILE...THE INTENSE MID LEVEL WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE EWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...AND SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE NERN OH/WRN PA AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO SRN NEW ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR...BUT THE THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM AT ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SMALL. FARTHER S...LINGERING MOISTURE/WEAK INSTABILITY NEAR THE SE ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING...THUS AN OUTLOOK AREA DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE NECESSARY. ...AZ AREA TONIGHT... AN INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER AZ BY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BE IN THE MID LEVELS...WHERE DESTABILIZATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY TONIGHT FROM SE INTO CENTRAL AZ. ..THOMPSON.. 01/24/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 24 19:44:35 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 24 Jan 2006 14:44:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060124194540.EBD7F8B379@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241943 SWODY1 SPC AC 241942 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2006 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW TUS PHX PRC 25 SE GCN 60 N INW 45 WSW GUP 65 WNW TCS 80 ESE DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...AZ/NM... UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT AND BEGIN EJECTING A CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF NRN BAJA... NEWD INTO EXTREME SRN CA. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS ACROSS AZ/NM WERE VERY DRY THIS MORNING...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON WAS STREAMING NWD FROM WRN MEXICO INTO THE SWRN U.S. AHEAD OF THE LOW. ALSO...LARGE SCALE LIFTING WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AS A 70 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX APPROACHES. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AFTER 05Z. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND... INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH LEVEL SPEED MAX IS PROGGED TO MOVE FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY COLD...LAPSE RATES FROM THE SFC TO 450 MB ARE EXPECTED TO STEEPEN TO 7-7.5C/KM OVERNIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING OF THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. THESE LAPSE RATES ...COMBINED WITH A MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG FORCING...MAY SUPPORT BANDS OF CONVECTIVE SNOW. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ..IMY.. 01/24/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 25 00:49:51 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 24 Jan 2006 19:49:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060125005056.E6A9E8B380@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250048 SWODY1 SPC AC 250047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2006 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW TUS 30 WNW GBN 35 NNE BLH 25 WSW IGM 50 WSW GCN 35 E INW 65 WNW TCS 35 S DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...AZ/NM... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL LOW 150 SSW SAN BEGINNING TO SLOWLY LIFT NEWD. PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS BEEN CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WHERE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL /I.E. -24 TO -26 C AT 500 MB/ IS CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ALSO...TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM THE ERN GULF OF CA COAST INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NRN MEXICO WHERE A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIR MASS IS BEING OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED ALONG THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. 00Z TUS SOUNDING INDICATES THAT LITTLE MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED FARTHER TO THE N ACROSS SRN AZ OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH AIR MASS REMAINING QUITE DRY BELOW 500 MB. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD...FURTHER MOISTENING/SATURATION WILL OCCUR...AND GIVEN THE MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALREADY IN PLACE... ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR A FEW TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 25/06Z. WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN VICINITY OF LOW CENTER...THE MAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH MOIST PLUME WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY NWWD AHEAD OF SYSTEM. ...PA/WV/NRN VA AND MD... A CLUSTER OF LOW TOPPED TSTMS INITIATING OVER CNTRL OH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC...100-110 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IN CONJUNCTION WITH RATHER STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...PRIOR TO DISSIPATION AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND LAPSE RATES WEAKEN. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION QUICK CESSATION OF THIS ACTIVITY...NO GENERAL THUNDER AREA WILL BE INCLUDED. ..MEAD.. 01/25/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 25 05:14:18 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 25 Jan 2006 00:14:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060125051524.526228B376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250512 SWODY1 SPC AC 250510 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2006 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 40 SSE GBN 55 E BLH 20 E EED 10 NNW IGM 50 NNE IGM 50 ESE SGU 30 NNW PGA 30 NE U17 20 S MTJ 45 ESE GUC 30 E ALS 40 N LVS 35 SSW ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD AS LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. SHIFTS EWD INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC AND NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW. MEANWHILE...CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SW OF SAN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD INTO WRN CO BY THURSDAY MORNING. ...FOUR-CORNERS REGION... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST / 25/12Z / OVER PORTIONS OF AZ INTO WRN NM AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING UPPER LOW ACTS ON MOIST CONVEYOR BELT WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY AROUND PARENT CIRCULATION. AS THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY OPENS AND ACCELERATES NEWD...ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS NRN AZ AND WRN NM...PERHAPS REACHING SERN UT AND SWRN CO BY TONIGHT. THIS THUNDER THREAT SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT OWING TO THE WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND LAPSE RATES OVER WRN CO. ..MEAD.. 01/25/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 25 12:57:46 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 25 Jan 2006 07:57:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060125125846.13FFE8B392@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251256 SWODY1 SPC AC 251255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 AM CST WED JAN 25 2006 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 10 S GBN 55 ESE BLH 30 W BLH 45 NE TRM 55 W EED 10 SSE LAS 25 S CDC 30 ENE BCE 30 ESE 4HV 20 SE GUC 40 NE ALS 45 WSW RTN 40 NNW ALM 15 SW ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... FLOW IS BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE ERN PAC AND A BREAKDOWN OF THE TEMPORARY REX BLOCK FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS EWD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SRN CA COAST IS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. ...AZ AREA... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER S OF SAN DIEGO...AND INVOF SE AZ WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. THE 12Z TUS SOUNDING REVEALED WEAK INSTABILITY BASED NEAR 700 MB...AND THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SPREAD NWD/NWWD THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT ALONG THE PATH OF THE EJECTING MID LEVEL WAVE...WITH THE RELATIVELY GREATER TSTM PROBABILITIES EXPECTED ACROSS SE AZ TODAY AND INVOF THE RIM THIS AFTERNOON. ..THOMPSON.. 01/25/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 25 16:27:51 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 25 Jan 2006 11:27:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060125162852.0C9B88B397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251621 SWODY1 SPC AC 251620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CST WED JAN 25 2006 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 10 S GBN 55 ESE BLH 30 W BLH 45 NE TRM 55 W EED 10 SSE LAS 25 S CDC 30 ENE BCE 30 ESE 4HV 20 SE GUC 40 NE ALS 45 WSW RTN 40 NNW ALM 15 SW ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHWEST STATES... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA IS BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...AND SHOULD BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 26/12Z. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BAND OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF AZ/WESTERN NM...AS WELL AS PARTS OF SOUTHERN UT/CO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THIS AREA. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY. ELSEWHERE...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ..HART.. 01/25/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 25 20:04:23 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 25 Jan 2006 15:04:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060125200526.BE2888B392@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 252002 SWODY1 SPC AC 252001 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0201 PM CST WED JAN 25 2006 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S FHU PHX PRC IGM 30 NNW EED 35 S LAS LAS SGU BCE 30 ESE 4HV MTJ 40 NE ALS 45 WSW RTN 40 NNW ALM ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER CONUS FEATURES TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE ATLANTIC COAST...RIDGE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS GREAT PLAINS...AND TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE PACIFIC COAST THAT WILL MOVE INLAND NRN CA...ORE AND WA THROUGH END OF PERIOD. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SRN STREAM -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY -- IS FCST TO CONTINUE EJECTING NEWD TO 4-CORNERS REGION BY 26/12Z. AT SFC...STRONG RIDGING IN AIR MASS OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN WILL REMAIN OVER WRN GULF...PRECLUDING SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING E OF ROCKIES. ...SWRN CONUS... WRN EDGE OF TSTM THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD IN CONCURRENCE WITH POSITION OF ERN EDGE OF DRY SLOT. GEN THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN CONCENTRATED IN BROAD WAA CONVEYOR WHICH WILL ARC FROM DISTANT SERN QUADRANT OF CYCLONE NWD AND NWWD TOWARD NERN PORTION OF COLD CORE REGION. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE IN THIS CORRIDOR...AS SAMPLED BY LATEST PW PROFILES DERIVED VIA GPS...WHICH INDICATE AROUND .75 INCH OVER SERN AZ/SWRN NM AND MORE THAN DOUBLING OF PW TO NEARLY .5 INCH OVER NWRN NM DURING PAST 6 HOURS. THIS MOISTENING -- ALONG WITH WEAK STEEPENING OF LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM DIURNAL/DIABATIC AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT CONTRIBUTORS -- WILL SUPPORT MUCAPES UP TO ABOUT 300 J/KG. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN EPISODIC/CLUSTERED THUNDER ALREADY OBSERVED TODAY IN THIS CORRIDOR. TSTMS COVERAGE GENERALLY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER DARK AS PARENT TROUGH WEAKENS AND SFC HEATING IS LOST. FARTHER SE INVOF RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SW TX...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MIGHT OCCUR BY END OF PERIOD. SUBTROPICAL STREAM PERTURBATION NOW AIDING TSTM FORMATION OVER W-CENTRAL MEX HIGHLANDS -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH INFLUX OF LOW-MIDLEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE -- WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL MEX OVERNIGHT. ZONE OF STRONGEST ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED MUCAPES UP TO AROUND 100 J/KG AS FAR NE AS TX/MEX BORDERLANDS. HOWEVER...LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL GULF MOISTURE AND STABILITY IN LOW LEVELS PRECLUDES GEN TSTM OUTLOOK ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 01/25/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 26 00:14:12 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 25 Jan 2006 19:14:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060126001516.7670F8B381@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260012 SWODY1 SPC AC 260010 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0610 PM CST WED JAN 25 2006 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW DUG 60 NW SAD 45 SE PRC 50 ENE IGM 55 S SGU 15 NNE SGU 50 SSE U24 U28 MTJ 45 NNE DRO 4SL 50 NW TCS 55 SSE DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FOUR CORNERS... MUCH OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA IS ELEVATED ABOVE SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER... SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ON SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER... LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW IS PROVIDING FORCING AND FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER COLORADO THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO INITIAL NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...AND UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UTAH/WESTERN COLORADO. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING HOW LONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST. AS STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING PROGRESSES DEEPER INTO COOLER LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN GREAT BASIN...MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. NOCTURNAL COOLING SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL ALSO INCREASE IN INFLUENCE ...AND IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 26/06Z...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 02-03Z. ...LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES... IN WAKE OF AMPLIFIED EASTERN U.S. TROUGH...BROAD SURFACE RIDGE HAS STABILIZED MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THUS...DESPITE FORECAST DEEPENING OF SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT...LACK OF RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ..KERR.. 01/26/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 26 05:12:20 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 26 Jan 2006 00:12:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060126051322.42D428B39C@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260510 SWODY1 SPC AC 260508 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 PM CST WED JAN 25 2006 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW BLI 30 N SEA 10 WNW PDX 45 SE OTH 30 W CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...MODELS SUGGEST SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...EMBEDDED WITHIN SPLIT BELTS OF POLAR WESTERLIES AND SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ...WILL SUPPORT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES BY EARLY FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW IS ALREADY LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN RESPONSE TO INLAND PROGRESSION OF INITIAL NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES. FORMER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN...AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY...AS LATTER FEATURE PROGRESSES INTO AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF ANOTHER NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES BY THIS EVENING. IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...CENTER OF BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS. THUS...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY/MOISTEN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...A SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE APPEARS UNLIKELY. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... COOL LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...EVEN IN PRESENCE OF SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK DIGGING UPSTREAM OF APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...INCREASING ONSHORE COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTENING AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. THIS MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS IT BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. IF 26/00Z GFS COMES CLOSER TO VERIFYING THAN THE NAM...LAPSE RATES/FORCING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO/WESTERN NEBRASKA COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN IF THIS OCCURS...THOUGH...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK/HIGH-BASED AND LIMITED ROUGHLY TO THE 19-23Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES...PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE/AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS TOO SMALL TO OUTLOOK AT THE PRESENT TIME. ..KERR.. 01/26/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 26 12:56:20 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 26 Jan 2006 07:56:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060126125716.CD1828B381@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261253 SWODY1 SPC AC 261251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST THU JAN 26 2006 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 40 NNE HQM 30 ENE AST 40 WNW SLE 35 W ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TIME AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES E OF NEW ENGLAND...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY...AND A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN CO THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 48 N AND 135 W WILL MOVE INLAND OVER WA/ORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL BUOYANCY EXISTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WRN CO TROUGH...AS WELL AS OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A SRN STREAM TROUGH THAT IS MOVING NEWD. STILL...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH TIME AS BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE AWAY FROM THEIR ORIGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCES. LATE TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT INVOF THE BIG BEND...WITHIN A DEEPENING MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING NEWD FROM MEXICO. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF AN OUTLOOK AREA IN LATER UPDATES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA REVEAL SOME CONVECTION/VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS NEAR PEAK AMPLITUDE AND CONVECTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO FAR...THUS THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WA/NW ORE COASTS APPEARS TO BE QUITE MARGINAL THIS EVENING. ..THOMPSON.. 01/26/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 26 16:20:56 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 26 Jan 2006 11:20:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060126162154.66A1F8B396@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261619 SWODY1 SPC AC 261619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1019 AM CST THU JAN 26 2006 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CLM 35 SSW OLM 40 NW SLE 30 WNW ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TIME AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES E OF NEW ENGLAND...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY...AND A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN CO THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 48 N AND 135 W WILL MOVE INLAND OVER WA/ORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL BUOYANCY EXISTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WRN CO TROUGH...AS WELL AS OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A SRN STREAM TROUGH THAT IS MOVING NEWD. STILL...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH TIME AS BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE AWAY FROM THEIR ORIGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCES. LATE TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT INVOF THE BIG BEND...WITHIN A DEEPENING MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING NEWD FROM MEXICO. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF AN OUTLOOK AREA IN LATER UPDATES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA REVEAL SOME CONVECTION/VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS NEAR PEAK AMPLITUDE AND CONVECTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO FAR...THUS THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WA/NW OREGON COASTS APPEARS TO BE QUITE MARGINAL THIS EVENING. ..AFWA.. 01/26/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 26 16:59:06 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 26 Jan 2006 11:59:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060126170004.2628E8B397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261657 SWODY1 SPC AC 261619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1019 AM CST THU JAN 26 2006 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CLM 35 SSW OLM 40 NW SLE 30 WNW ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TIME AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES E OF NEW ENGLAND...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY...AND A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN CO THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 48 N AND 135 W WILL MOVE INLAND OVER WA/ORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL BUOYANCY EXISTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WRN CO TROUGH...AS WELL AS OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A SRN STREAM TROUGH THAT IS MOVING NEWD. STILL...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH TIME AS BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE AWAY FROM THEIR ORIGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCES. LATE TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT INVOF THE BIG BEND...WITHIN A DEEPENING MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING NEWD FROM MEXICO. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF AN OUTLOOK AREA IN LATER UPDATES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA REVEAL SOME CONVECTION/VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS NEAR PEAK AMPLITUDE AND CONVECTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO FAR...THUS THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WA/NW OREGON COASTS APPEARS TO BE QUITE MARGINAL THIS EVENING. ..AFWA.. 01/26/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 26 19:42:57 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 26 Jan 2006 14:42:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060126194354.D49598B395@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261941 SWODY1 SPC AC 261941 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 0141 PM CST THU JAN 26 2006 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CLM 25 N OLM 25 SSW PDX 35 NNE OTH 30 W OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES E OF NEW ENGLAND. AN UPSTREAM RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY...AND A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN CO THIS AFTERNOON WILL EJECT NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF WA/OREGON WILL MOVE INLAND OVER WA/ORE LATER THIS EVENING. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL BUOYANCY EXISTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NRN CO TROUGH...AS WELL AS OVER OK/TX WITH A SRN STREAM TROUGH THAT IS MOVING NEWD. STILL...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH TIME AS BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE AWAY FROM THEIR ORIGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL LIGHTNING DATA REVEAL SOME CONVECTION/VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE, BUT AS COLDER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS MOVE ONSHORE THE LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..AFWA.. 01/26/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 26 19:53:35 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 26 Jan 2006 14:53:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060126195431.6F6728B395@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261952 SWODY1 SPC AC 261941 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 0141 PM CST THU JAN 26 2006 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CLM 25 N OLM 25 SSW PDX 35 NNE OTH 30 W OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES E OF NEW ENGLAND. AN UPSTREAM RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY...AND A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN CO THIS AFTERNOON WILL EJECT NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF WA/OREGON WILL MOVE INLAND OVER WA/ORE LATER THIS EVENING. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL BUOYANCY EXISTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NRN CO TROUGH...AS WELL AS OVER OK/TX WITH A SRN STREAM TROUGH THAT IS MOVING NEWD. STILL...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH TIME AS BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE AWAY FROM THEIR ORIGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL LIGHTNING DATA REVEAL SOME CONVECTION/VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE, BUT AS COLDER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS MOVE ONSHORE THE LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..AFWA.. 01/26/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 27 00:26:01 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 26 Jan 2006 19:26:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060127002658.D7B0F8B394@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270025 SWODY1 SPC AC 270024 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 PM CST THU JAN 26 2006 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BLI SEA EUG 35 ENE 4BK 30 WSW CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... CONVECTIVE BAND FOCUSED ON LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING INLAND. TO THIS POINT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS OFF THE OREGON COAST...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE WAS MAXIMIZED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING INLAND OF PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS EVENING...IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ONSHORE COMPONENT TO FLOW AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND...STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION. THIS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. ...EAST OF THE ROCKIES... THOUGH CENTER OF BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT INTO THE EASTERN STATES OVERNIGHT...RIDGING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL IMPEDE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM SLOWLY MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND SHOULD PRECLUDE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN PLAINS. ..KERR.. 01/27/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 27 05:36:56 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 27 Jan 2006 00:36:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060127053755.51D808B396@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270536 SWODY1 SPC AC 270534 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CST THU JAN 26 2006 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SE CRP 45 WNW LRD ...CONT... 65 W MRF 10 SW MRF FST MAF 20 WSW LBB AMA 40 W GAG DDC HLC CNK 10 SE STJ 40 N COU 30 N FAM POF HOT GGG 10 SE LFK 55 SSE BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BLI SEA EUG 35 ENE 4BK 30 WSW CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... STRONG POLAR JET EXTENDS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST PACIFIC THROUGH THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD PROPAGATION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SERIES OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE... INCLUDING ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MIGRATING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN INDICATING THIS FEATURE WILL SPLIT AS IT CONTINUES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY TODAY. STRONGER SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS PROGGED INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY EARLY THIS EVENING... AS AN IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. THESE FEATURES MAY COME IN PHASE AS THEY BEGIN TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN...MODELS SUGGEST INITIATION OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UNTIL THIS OCCURS...SURFACE RIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND GULF COASTAL AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION AND INHIBIT MOISTURE RETURN TO THE PLAINS. THIS APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTENING SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR BY LATE TONIGHT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST INCREASING RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS. ...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES... BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AT LEAST THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 50S BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. RELATIVELY WARM LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE WILL CAP MOIST LAYER...BUT ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS TO SUPPORT WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY EXCEED 500 J/KG IN NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG WEAK DRY LINE...ROUGHLY FROM THE SAN ANGELO THROUGH CHILDRESS AREA...WHERE SHEAR PROFILES ALONG 30+ KT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. FORCING TO WEAKEN INHIBITION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT AS SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK NOSES ACROSS THE DRY LINE BY THE 27/21-23Z TIME FRAME...THERE APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR AT LEAST VERY ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE DARK. NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...MOSTLY ABOVE COOL/ STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER. MID-LEVEL FORCING/COOLING WITH APPROACH OF POLAR TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY STEEPEN LAPSE RATES/WEAK INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS THE 28/03-06Z TIME...BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND SPREADING EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE IN FAVORABLE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR RISK OF AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... AFTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DIMINISHES TODAY IN WAKE OF INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...FORCING/DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SYSTEM COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN BY 12Z SATURDAY. ..KERR.. 01/27/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 27 12:37:37 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 27 Jan 2006 07:37:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060127123830.240188B39B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271236 SWODY1 SPC AC 271234 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2006 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE CRP 65 NW LRD ...CONT... 85 WSW MRF 35 NNW MRF 25 SSE INK 25 NNW MAF 20 WSW LBB 25 SE BGD 40 NW GAG DDC RSL CNK 10 SE STJ 40 N COU 30 N FAM POF HOT 30 SSW SHV 45 WNW POE 55 SSE BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BLI SEA EUG 35 ENE 4BK 30 WSW CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS... SERIES OF TROUGHS CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY IN THE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS CONUS. WHILE ONE IMPULSE MOVES EWD THRU WRN GREAT LAKES THE NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM IS NOW ONSHORE WRN U.S. THIS TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES EWD EMERGING INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS BY LATER TONIGHT. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH FROM THE WEST. BY 12Z SAT SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED WRN KS WITH MID LEVEL COOLING AND DPVA SPREADING EWD ACROSS KS/OK AND NWRN TX. SLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO 30-40KT SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TX AND OK WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING THRU THE 50S IN TX AND INTO LOW 50S WRN OK TONIGHT. ALSO THE SUBTROPICAL JET FROM THE ERN PAC ACROSS NRN MEXICO IS SPREADING CONSIDERABLE MID/UPR LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY INTO TX AS NOTED BY THE LIGHTNING STRIKES BOTH TX BIG BEND AND ACROSS SRN BAJA CA. INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT PORTIONS OF SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN BY THEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. LIMITED INSOLATION WITH THE EXPECTED EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVELS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WRN TX SHOULD BE ELEVATED. UPDRAFT STRENGTH WILL ALSO BE LIMITED BY MLCAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG. STRONGER PRIMARILY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FROM NWRN TX EXTENDING NEWD INTO SERN KS AS TROUGH AND MID LEVEL COOLING SHIFTS EWD INTO PLAINS. WITH MLCAPES REMAINING AOB 500 J/KG EXPECT ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED ELEVATED HAIL EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ..HALES.. 01/27/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 27 16:27:00 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 27 Jan 2006 11:27:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060127162752.530E08B3A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271625 SWODY1 SPC AC 271623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2006 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WSW MRF 35 NNW MRF 25 SSE INK 25 NNW MAF 20 WSW LBB 25 SE BGD 25 SSE LBL 50 E LAA 15 WNW MCK 25 SW HSI STJ 40 SE CDJ 10 N TBN 15 SW HRO 15 ESE DEQ 15 SW GGG 30 ESE UTS 30 E GLS ...CONT... 80 SE CRP 30 ENE CRP 20 WNW NIR 15 SSE COT 45 W LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BLI SEA EUG 35 ENE 4BK 30 WSW CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG NW FLOW OVER CA THIS MORNING...AND W.V. SATELLITE DATA ...SUGGEST THAT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER KLAS IS A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED AND WILL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AS IT CONTINUES ESE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE SRN HI PLNS BY 12Z SATURDAY... WHERE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM WILL ENHANCE SLY COMPONENT TO MID/UPR LVL FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES. THIS SHOULD HELP MOISTEN THE MID/ UPR LEVELS AS SUBTROPICAL STREAM NOW OVER NW MEXICO BUCKLES NE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS. ..SRN/CNTRL PLNS... LEE CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR LATER TODAY/TONIGHT OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS WITH APPROACH OF NEVADA UPR TROUGH. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW OVER THE SRN PLNS. NEAR-SURFACE TRAJECTORIES WILL...HOWEVER...REMAIN OUT OF GULF CST/SERN STATES SURFACE RIDGE. STRATOCU FIELD OVER THE GULF...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS AIR MASS IS STILL PARTIALLY MODIFIED POLAR IN CHARACTER. THUS...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SRN PLNS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DEVELOPING LLJ WILL NEVERTHELESS ADVECT SEASONABLY MOIST AIR ACROSS W CNTRL TX INTO MUCH OF OK INTO KS. AMPLIFICATION OF WRN TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE AXIS TO DEVELOP A BIT FARTHER W COMPARED TO SIMILAR RECENT SYSTEMS. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH UPR TROUGH...AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY CLOUD LAYER FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM CNTRL TX NNE INTO MUCH OF OK/KS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DEGREE OF CLOUD LAYER INSTABILITY LIKELY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED /AOB 750 J PER KG/. THIS MAY...HOWEVER...PROVE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD A FEW UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. A SEPARATE AREA OF STORMS MAY FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER WRN KS...IN EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING TROUGH. FARTHER S...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO FORM IN SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT CLOSER TO THE SUBTROPICAL JET IN SRN/S CNTRL TX...ALTHOUGH WARMER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY LESSEN CHANCE FOR HAIL. ..CORFIDI.. 01/27/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 27 19:54:30 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 27 Jan 2006 14:54:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060127195522.B45518B366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271952 SWODY1 SPC AC 271951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2006 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 10 WSW MAF 20 E PVW 30 NNE BGD 40 WSW GCK 15 SE ITR 30 SSW IML 30 SSE LBF 30 E HSI 30 SW LWD 20 NNW COU 15 SSE TBN 30 S HRO 30 W TXK 35 N LFK 20 SSE LFK 45 ESE GLS ...CONT... 50 SE CRP LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BLI SEA EUG 35 ENE 4BK 30 WSW CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... AN UPPER-TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SLIDE EWD TONIGHT SPREADING A BAND OF FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INTO NORTH TX...OK AND KS LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...A STRONG 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE REGION. IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM THE WEST...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN WEST TX...WRN KS AND SPREAD EWD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ASCENT AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM SRN KS SWD ACROSS OK INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...A MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO NOSE INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES REACHING ABOUT 50 KT LATE TONIGHT...SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WHICH SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN THE 08Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. ..BROYLES.. 01/27/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 28 00:18:44 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 27 Jan 2006 19:18:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060128001943.B1F3B8B367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280017 SWODY1 SPC AC 280016 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2006 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF INK 45 SSW LBB 45 WNW PVW 15 S SPD LAA 10 NNW ITR 15 E MCK BIE SZL HRO LFK NIR 25 SW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N UIL 25 N AST 20 NNE ONP 45 N 4BK 40 W CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...MODELS INDICATE VIGOROUS DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE... EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES...WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. SYSTEM ALREADY APPEARS TO BE TURNING EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND IS PROGGED TO COME INCREASINGLY IN PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE RAPID RETURN OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS STILL IN THE RECOVERY PROCESS FROM A PRIOR FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO THIS RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS RATHER WEAK. THIS IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH LOWER/MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS ALREADY PRESENT IN A TONGUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN/WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES TONIGHT. ...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES... CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL...BUT FORCING/ DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP EASTWARD TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST STORMS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUSED NEAR SPEED MAXIMUM...WHICH IS PROGGED TO NOSE INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY SOMETIME AFTER 28/06Z. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND AS STORMS BEGIN TO INGEST BETTER RETURN FLOW /REFLECTED BY 60F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS/ CAPE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT. MUCH STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH POLAR TROUGH/JET STREAK IS EXPECTED TO COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER MOISTURE RETURN FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS COULD SUPPORT INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION BY 28/03-06Z. HOWEVER...MORE NOTABLE INCREASE IN DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE 28/06-09Z TIME FRAME...FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG FOR PARCELS BASED IN MOIST LAYER ABOVE SURFACE/ NEAR SURFACE INVERSION. THIS LIKELY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS...WHICH COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE CRITERIA. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH...ENVIRONMENT ALONG COASTAL AREAS WILL BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL SOMETIME AFTER 28/12Z. ..KERR.. 01/28/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 28 05:51:08 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 28 Jan 2006 00:51:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060128055205.B7BEB8B380@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280549 SWODY1 SPC AC 280547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2006 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE PSX SAT 50 ENE JCT CHK END CNU SGF 15 WNW ARG 10 ENE DYR 15 ESE HSV 30 NE CEW 60 SSE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW MRF MAF PVW GAG 30 E DDC EAR SLB 30 SW ALO CGX FWA LEX CSV ATL CSG 15 SSW PFN 50 SSW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE BLI 25 W DLS 10 S MFR 50 WNW ACV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SRN PLAINS AND LWR MS VALLEY.... IMPULSES EMANATING FROM STRONG NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST PACIFIC POLAR JET ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS THEY MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY ADVANCING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND WILL COME INCREASINGLY IN PHASE WITH AN IMPULSE IN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM...AS IT ACCELERATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY...INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY 12Z SUNDAY. UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS SUGGEST DEVELOPING UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL SUPPORT INITIATION OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY TODAY. MORE RAPID DEEPENING MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW CENTER DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OZARKS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS...HOWEVER...AND THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOMEWHAT WEAK RETURN FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS CONTRIBUTING TO SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT. GIVEN STRENGTH OF MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...THE VIRTUAL CERTAINTY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTS AT LEAST A LOW SEVERE RISK ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. ...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES... IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT A BROAD SWATH OF CONVECTION/ PRECIPITATION COULD BE ONGOING FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT 28/12Z. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM...AND RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT VIGOR OF ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IN A BROAD BELT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS. AND...BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TORNADO/WIND THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A BETTER SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE PROPAGATION OF A STRONG POLAR JET STREAK AROUND THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION MAY BE MINIMIZED BY CLOUD COVER/ PRECIPITATION...AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WRAPPING INTO DEVELOPING CYCLONE CENTER. MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. A SQUALL LINE COULD BRIEFLY EVOLVE...BEFORE DEVELOPING EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WEAKENING EARLY THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. HOWEVER...IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ACCOMPANYING MORE RAPID DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW... DESTABILIZATION COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FARTHER TO THE EAST...THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE RISK THROUGH THE EVENING AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..KERR.. 01/28/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 28 12:26:14 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 28 Jan 2006 07:26:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060128122701.E95938B3B7@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281224 SWODY1 SPC AC 281223 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0623 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2006 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE PSX SAT 50 ENE JCT 35 ENE SPS 30 WNW CQB 35 NE CNU 15 NNE SGF 15 WNW ARG 20 ENE MEM 15 NNE CBM 15 SW MOB 70 SE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE BLI 25 W DLS 10 S MFR 50 WNW ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW 6R6 MAF 60 SSE CDS 15 ESE GAG 30 E DDC EAR SLB 30 SW ALO CGX FWA LEX CSV ATL CSG 15 SSW PFN 50 SSW PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY.... TROUGH CENTRAL/SRN HI PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED BY TONIGHT AS IT ROTATES ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY. WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS WILL RAMP UP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AND THE SURFACE LOW NOW WRN KS MOVES EWD AND DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY. CURRENT LARGE AREA OF NON-SEVERE CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM MO SWWD TO CENTRAL TX SUPPORTED BY A WARM CONVEYER AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET MAX ROTATES EWD ACROSS SRN TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY BY TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ABILITY OF THE AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING CONVECTION AS WIND SHEAR PROFILES AND KINEMATICS WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS TX INTO OK THIS AM WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO NEAR 60F AS FAR N AS THE RED RIVER NERN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND MID/UPPER 50S ERN OK. AS AREA ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION CONTINUES EWD...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TIME FOR HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS ERN HALF OF TX NWD INTO OK TO ALLOW MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON WEST EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DRY LINE BY MID/LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS OK/NRN TX. WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH THE EXPECTED ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON VICINITY I35 CORRIDOR ACROSS OK INTO NRN TX. WHILE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL THE 30KT OF SFC-1KM SHEAR AND FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS WITH HELICITIES 250-350 M2/S2 SHOULD LEAD TO SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY THREAT OF ANY SUPERCELL TORNADOES WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE. OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND INTENSIFIES VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES DEVELOP WITH 850MB JET INCREASING TO 60-70KT OVER LWR MS AND WRN TN VALLEY. COUPLED WITH STRONG AND DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER JET A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY MEAGER AT THE SAME TIME THE GREATEST DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM IS OCCURRING. THUS SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MUCH OF NIGHT BUT GRADUALLY TRANSITION PRIMARILY INTO A DAMAGING WIND CONCERN. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO WRN MS DURING THE NIGHT WHERE SOME INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE VIGOROUS WIND FIELDS. ..HALES.. 01/28/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 28 16:35:35 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 28 Jan 2006 11:35:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060128163637.ACDBA8B395@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281634 SWODY1 SPC AC 281632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1032 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2006 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S PSX 10 W BAZ 20 SSE FTW 35 WSW ADM 20 SE PNC 25 SE EMP 60 NNE JLN 15 ENE FLP 20 ENE MEM CBM 45 WSW SEM 70 SE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE BLI 25 W DLS 10 S MFR 50 WNW ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW 6R6 MAF 60 SSE CDS 15 ESE GAG 30 E DDC EAR SLB 30 SW ALO CGX FWA LEX CSV ATL CSG 15 SSW PFN 50 SSW PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER E TX/LA INTO PARTS OF OK/AR/KS AND THE LWR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... VEE-SHAPED UPR TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE ENE TOWARD THE MS VLY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS POWERFUL UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE REACHES THE NRN GRT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT THAT LOW NOW OVER N CNTRL KS WILL LIKEWISE ACCELERATE ENEWD...REACHING THE KCHI AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. COLD FRONT TRAILING S FROM THE LOW SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND SURGE E ACROSS MUCH OF MO/AR AND OK BY LATE TONIGHT...WHILE PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT MOVES E THROUGH E TX/WRN LA. ...SE TX/LA... OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED INTO A NE/SW BAND THAT ATTM EXTENDS FROM NEAR KTXK TO KAUS. THIS BAND SHOULD CONTINUE E THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE WEAKENING OVER WRN LA THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL HEATING AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK AS MAJOR PORTION OF UPR TROUGH PASSES BY N OF REGION. BUT SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO SHOW A WEDGE OF MORE STRONGLY MODIFIED GULF AIR PRESENT W OF WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING SSE INTO THE GULF FROM NEAR BPT. THIS AIR SHOULD SPREAD N INTO SE TX THROUGH THE DAY. COMBINATION OF MODERATE MOISTURE INFLUX /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S/ AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING MAY FOSTER INTENSIFICATION OF CELLS IN THE SRN PART OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEEP WLY SHEAR INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS ON SRN FRINGE OF EJECTING TROUGH...SETUP COULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH A COUPLE LEWPS/SMALL BOWS. A LOW PROBABILITY WILL ALSO EXIST FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND OVER SE TX AND PERHAPS SW LA. WHILE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS. ACCELERATION OF UPR TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW SE TX/WRN LA STORMS TO MOVE/DEVELOP E INTO MS LATER TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE WEAK /SBCAPE LIKELY AOB 250 J PER KG/...BUT COULD SUPPORT CONTINUATION OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO REGION FROM THE W. ...N TX/OK/AR/ERN KS... A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND PERHAPS SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES WILL EXIST LATER TODAY AHEAD OF LEAD COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL/SE KS SWD INTO NE TX. ACCELERATION OF BOUNDARY ...WHICH WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO RECONFIGURATION OF UPPER FLOW FIELD...WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS LEFT BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. SURFACE HEATING WILL BE LIMITED. BUT AS UPR FLOW VEERS...EXISTING WARM CONVEYOR CLOUD BAND SHOULD BE SHUNTED MORE RAPIDLY EWD. THIS MAY ALLOW A NARROW AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH SHARPENING FRONT. ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS THAT DO FORM LIKELY WILL BECOME SUPERCELLS...AS DEEP SHEAR WILL VARY FROM SSWLY AT 35 KTS IN KS TO WSWLY AT NEARLY 50S KTS IN NE TX. LIMITED SURFACE AIR MASS RECOVERY AND TIME OF DAY SHOULD OFFSET INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT TO KEEP SEVERE THREAT FAIRLY ISOLATED AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES E/NE INTO WRN KY/TN LATE TONIGHT. ..CORFIDI.. 01/28/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 28 20:17:40 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 28 Jan 2006 15:17:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060128201828.EEE128B318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 282016 SWODY1 SPC AC 282015 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE PSX 40 W HOU 25 E CRS 30 SSW MLC 30 WNW TUL 40 WNW EMP 20 N MHK 30 WSW FNB FNB 20 SE STJ 30 SW SZL 25 SSW FLP 25 NNE LIT 30 SSE GLH 30 WNW PIB 50 E BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE BLI 25 W DLS 10 S MFR 50 WNW ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W BRO 40 SW ALI 15 SE HDO 45 SSW SPS 45 WNW CNK 20 WNW OLU 30 WNW SUX 10 NNW SLB 30 ESE ALO 10 SW CGX 20 N MIE 25 NNW LEX 25 NE CHA 15 S AUO 45 WSW AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU... ...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY... A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A ZONE OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM MO EXTENDING SWD INTO EAST TX IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO LA...ERN AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WITH EMBEDDED CELLS IN THE LINE. AS THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES EWD BEHIND THE AREA OF RAIN...NEW CELLS SHOULD INITIATE FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER SWD ACROSS NE TX. WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...THE STRONGER CELLS COULD BECOME SEVERE AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO SRN AR AND LA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE...THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS A TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE HOUSTON-VICTORIA AREA...A LINE OF STRENGTHENING CONVECTION IS ONGOING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A POCKET OF INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 500 J/KG. AS A RESULT THE LINE MAY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS SE TX. 88D VWPS CURRENTLY SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT IN THE HOUSTON AREA. THIS COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TORNADOES ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES MORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. DUE TO THE STRONG LIFT WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH...THE LINE SHOULD EXPAND AND MOVE EWD ACROSS LA INTO SRN MS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY BECOMING MARGINAL DUE TO THE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. ...CNTRL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A DRY SLOT ADVANCING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL OK AND SCNTRL KS WITH CUMULUS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NE KS. AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND SFC DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 50S F LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW STORMS MAY INITIATE AND TRACK NEWD ACROSS ERN KS INTO SW MO. PROFILERS CURRENTLY SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 50 KT WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE CONVECTION IF DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT INITIATE. ..BROYLES.. 01/28/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 29 01:03:38 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 28 Jan 2006 20:03:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060129010427.36FF68B36F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290101 SWODY1 SPC AC 290100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE GLS 50 WSW POE 20 SW SHV 45 SW TXK 30 SSE DUA 20 E ADM 35 S CQB 30 WSW FNB 10 NNW FNB 20 NNW CDJ 30 N SGF 30 N RUE 35 WSW BVX 20 SW ARG 35 NNE POF 20 SSE MDH 50 ENE PAH 45 NW MSL 45 NNE MEI 30 NW MOB 55 SE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE BLI 25 W DLS 10 S MFR 50 WNW ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S PSX 35 SW CLL 30 SSW ADM 20 N PNC 15 NE CNK 20 W TQE 25 NNE FOD DBQ 25 SSE RAC 35 W TOL 20 NE LUK 25 WSW TYS 10 SSW LGC 45 WSW AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS/TN RIVER VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WNWLY FLOW SPREADING INLAND ACROSS THE PAC NW TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL MAINTAIN PROGRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER 48 STATES. SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER ERN OK...IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE ERN NEB/KS SHORT WAVE TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED REACHING THE LOWER OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS BY 12Z SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW NOW LOCATED OVER NERN KS WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS TOWARD NERN IL/NWRN IND OVERNIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP EWD AND OVERTAKE THE DRY LINE WHICH EXTENDED SWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO CENTRAL TX...AND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER OH TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS TO TX COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. PRIND SUGGEST THE COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LOCATED ALONG/BENEATH SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM FROM SRN/ERN TX ACROSS LOWER MS TO MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS HAS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. MODELS INDICATED WEAK DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR EWD OVERNIGHT AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /150-180 METERS/ AND FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVE OVER THIS REGION. IN ADDITION... STRENGTHENING LLJ ADVECTING GREATER MOISTURE NWD ACROSS LOWER MS TO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY WILL ALSO AID IN DESTABILIZATION. ...ERN KS/MO/IL/ERN OK/AR/ERN TX... GREATEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/DRY LINE WHERE A NARROW...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING/COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR A BROKEN SQUALL LINE TO LAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD INTO WRN MO/PARTS OF WRN AR THROUGH ABOUT 03Z BEFORE INSTABILITY BECOMES TOO WEAK TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS. ...LOWER MS TO LOWER TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS... DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS THESE REGIONS OVERNIGHT... INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG THE LLJ AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE REGION OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED LINE SEGMENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ON REGIONAL RADARS FROM THE MEM AREA SWD TO LA. GIVEN STRENGTH OF LLJ AND FAST STORM MOTIONS...STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS. FARTHER S...EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN LA TO FAR SRN MS WHERE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. ..PETERS.. 01/29/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 29 05:52:47 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 29 Jan 2006 00:52:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060129055337.EAABA8B366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290552 SWODY1 SPC AC 290550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE PSX VCT 30 SSE UTS 50 W JAN 35 SE GWO UOX 20 E ARG 35 ENE FAM ALN 25 N SPI 20 NW BEH 80 NNW ERI 15 E BUF 15 N AOO 30 SSW EKN 15 NNW HSS AVL 35 SE CLT 10 N GSB 50 SSE WAL ...CONT... 45 ESE SGJ 45 W PIE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. TODAY. A STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS AT 12Z SUNDAY WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD ALONG THE OH VALLEY TO NERN STATES. AN UPSTREAM TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO MI DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME OCCLUDED AS A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE ERN STATES. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH...WITH THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OH TO LOWER MS VALLEYS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST STATES... STRONGER FORCING WITH THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST REGION. THUS...FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A BROAD ZONE OF PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ACROSS SRN AL INTO GA/NRN FL...GIVEN MODEST LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ADVECTING INTO THIS REGION. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS LOW PROBABILITIES FOR A FEW DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. AT THIS TIME...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER TX COAST NEWD ACROSS LA TO PARTS OF NRN MS/NRN AL AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS RESULT IN BACKING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS TROUGH AND THE RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THESE AREAS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL TOWARD 12Z MONDAY INTO NRN AL. ...OH VALLEY... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-20 TO -24C AT 500 MB/ ATOP ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW LOW-TOPPED STORMS. VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT... BUT SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE. ..PETERS.. 01/29/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 29 12:43:42 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 29 Jan 2006 07:43:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060129124426.89E388B394@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291242 SWODY1 SPC AC 291240 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2006 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E SGJ 50 S CTY ...CONT... 30 SSE GLS 25 SW BPT 35 NNW LFT 30 E MCB 15 SSE GZH 40 N ABY 10 S AGS 20 S FAY 40 W HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N EVV MTO 45 SE MMO 20 SE AZO 10 WNW MTC 45 NNW CLE 30 NW ZZV 15 E LUK 40 N EVV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... SERIES OF POTENT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO TRACK THRU THE BROAD LONG WAVE POSITION OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SURFACE LOW SRN WI AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO CONTINUE NE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO FILL TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH LOSSES AMPLITUDE AND MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. UPSTREAM SPEED MAX NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ATTM WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT...DEEPENING THE MAJOR TROUGH POSITION OVER SCENTRAL U.S. BY MON AM. WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY LINE HAS MOVED WELL E OF COLD FRONT WITH ITS REMNANTS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SWWD TO SRN AL. INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY REMAINS INLAND FROM THE GULF TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLING AWAY TO THE NE AND MLCAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG AT BEST IN ADVANCE OF INSTABILITY LINE ERN GULF STATES...ONLY EXPECT GENERALLY WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY SERN STATES. CURRENT LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY IL/IN BORDER LINKED TO STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH COLD UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING THRU THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEWD THRU OH VALLEY THIS AM AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH LOSES AMPLITUDE AND ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. HAVE CONTINUED A LOW THREAT OF THUNDER CENTRAL GULF COAST FOR LATER TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX APPROACHES...BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW. SINCE FRONTAL ZONE WILL NOT MOVE FAR OFFSHORE...SOME THREAT FOR ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING AS MOIST AIR MASS NOW OVER MUCH OF GULF IS LIFTED BACK ACROSS STALLED FRONT. ..HALES.. 01/29/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 29 16:33:14 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 29 Jan 2006 11:33:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060129163359.F1D5F8B391@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291631 SWODY1 SPC AC 291629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2006 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW HTS 40 ESE BMG 15 S MIE 45 SE AZO 10 WNW MTC 30 WSW BUF DUJ 20 S PKB 45 WNW HTS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E SGJ 50 S CTY ...CONT... 50 SSE BPT 30 SSE POE 35 SW IER 35 WSW MLU 35 SSE GLH 25 NE JAN 25 E MCB 30 ENE MOB 20 NW ABY 15 SE AGS 25 S FLO 40 E CRE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE OH VLY SHOULD FURTHER DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO UPSTATE NY THIS EVENING...WHILE UPSTREAM SPEED MAXIMA PHASING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS CARVE A NEW TROUGH OVER THE OZARKS/ARKLATEX REGION. COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH OH VLY SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY E/SE ACROSS THE SERN STATES TODAY. LEAD BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY FROM NRN FL WSW INTO THE NRN GULF EARLY MONDAY. FARTHER NW...A NEW FRONT SHOULD EVOLVE LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE LWR MS VLY...AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING DISTURBANCE IN THE PLAINS. ...UPR OH VLY... LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON DOWNSTREAM FROM COLD UPPER TROUGH. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO SURFACE HEATING MAY COMPENSATE FOR WEAKENING OF UPR SYSTEM TO SPREAD THUNDER INTO WRN PA LATER IN THE DAY. A FEW CELLS MAY YIELD SMALL HAIL BEFORE ENCOUNTERING MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. ...SERN STATES/N FL... PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND HAS MOVED WELL E OF COLD FRONT. IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS FARTHER SE TODAY. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAK UPR FORCING SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE OF ASSOCIATED THUNDER ISOLATED. THE CONVECTIVE BAND MAY REJUVENATE SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY FROM THE NRN GULF ENE ACROSS NRN FL/S GA AND PERHAPS SRN SC AS AMPLIFICATION OF UPSTREAM TROUGH ENHANCES WARM ADVECTION ACROSS REGION. FARTHER W...AN AREA OF NEW CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDER MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF LA/MS...IN ZONE OF INCREASING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CLOSER TO APPROACHING TROUGH. LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY SEVERE THREAT DESPITE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG CLOUD LAYER SHEAR. ..CORFIDI.. 01/29/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 29 19:38:00 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 29 Jan 2006 14:38:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060129193845.C2D3E8B39D@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291936 SWODY1 SPC AC 291934 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2006 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE GLS 25 SE ESF 15 W JAN 30 NNE MEI SEM 25 SSW CSG 30 ESE MCN 40 ENE OGB 55 SSW HSE ...CONT... 35 E SGJ 50 S CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW PKB 35 WNW UNI 20 WSW CMH 35 SSE FDY 35 NNW MFD 45 WNW ERI 35 SW ROC 20 ESE ELM 35 SW AVP 20 ESE CXY 40 WSW MRB 20 WNW EKN 25 SSW PKB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN STATES... SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON IN SPITE OF A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. A CONFLUENCE ZONE AT THE SFC EVIDENT ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH CONVECTION LIKELY REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL US WILL DIG SEWD SPREADING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS TX INTO LA TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SEWD INTO LA AND MS LATE IN THE PERIOD. A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING ASCENT. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF INITIATION STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFTER DAYBREAK. ...UPPER OH VALLEY... A QUICKLY MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SRN OH AND WRN PA. THIS WAS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS NEWD...THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO PA BEFORE DISSIPATING BY EARLY EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 01/29/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 30 01:00:17 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 29 Jan 2006 20:00:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060130010103.27EB68B39D@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300058 SWODY1 SPC AC 300057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2006 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE AAF 25 SSE TLH 25 N GNV 30 SE OCF 40 W PIE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL BIG BEND REGION... AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME MAY BE SUPPORTED BY AN EMBEDDED WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX WITHIN MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THIS REGION INTO NRN FL/SERN STATES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE FL BIG BEND REGION LATER TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE EMBEDDED TROUGH TRANSLATES ENEWD TOWARD NRN FL. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS...WILL AMPLIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PORTION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS NEW ENGLAND HAD DECREASED ITS EWD PROGRESSION AS IT HAS BECOME PARALLEL TO WSWLY FLOW ALOFT. THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY ALONG THE LA COAST HAD BEGUN TO RETURN NWD DURING THE LAST 1-2 HOURS...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO INCREASE THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS SRN MS. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...A PRIMARILY WLY COMPONENT TO THESE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL LA/MS OVERNIGHT. WEAK WAA ALONG THE LLJ AXIS MAY SUPPORT AN AREA OF SHOWERS TOWARD 12Z. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR THIS REGION. ..PETERS.. 01/30/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 30 05:51:27 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 30 Jan 2006 00:51:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060130055213.D01F18B397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300549 SWODY1 SPC AC 300548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2006 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE BPT 15 NNE LFT PIB 20 NNW TCL 35 NNW HSV 30 SE CSV 35 NE TRI 25 NE ROA 55 E SBY ...CONT... 35 E PBI 40 SW APF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW UIL 25 NW UIL 20 SW AST 20 N SLE 45 NNW MFR 20 NW MHS 40 SE RBL 35 SW TVL 40 E SCK 25 W SCK 50 SE UKI 65 W UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO ERN TX...WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ERN STATES. VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /150+ METERS/ ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SERN STATES AS A STRENGTHENING 500 MB JET /90+ KT/ TRANSLATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING BY 12Z TUESDAY OVER THE CAROLINAS. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER NRN MS AT 12Z TODAY AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD EWD WITH THE LOW REACHING WRN SC BY 31/00Z. FAIRLY RAPID DEEPENING OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NC COAST...IN RESPONSE TO EVEN STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS /AROUND 200 METERS BY 12Z TUESDAY/. NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PAC NW TODAY TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/ STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INLAND ACROSS WRN ORE INTO NRN CA. ...CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST REGION... DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING AND KINEMATICS WITH THIS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH...WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE RETURN OF RICH MOISTURE TO INLAND PARTS OF THE GULF COAST/SERN STATES. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF...BUT MAY EXTEND JUST INLAND ALONG THE CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST REGION FROM FAR SERN MS EWD TO THE FL PANHANDLE...AND POTENTIALLY INTO SWRN GA. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF NRN FL...WITH CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ACTIVITY GENERALLY LIMITING DESTABILIZATION OVER THIS AREA. MEANWHILE...NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES EWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST STATES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO WARRANT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE INTO GA. IF GREATER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND/OR IS EXPECTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS...THEN PARTS OF THIS REGION COULD REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK. ..PETERS.. 01/30/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 30 13:02:32 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 30 Jan 2006 08:02:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060130130313.322898B367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301300 SWODY1 SPC AC 301258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST MON JAN 30 2006 VALID 301300Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE SSI 55 SW CTY ...CONT... 75 SSE HUM MCB 30 SW MEI 20 NNE MGM 40 E RMG 10 NW GSP 30 NNW SOP 15 NNW EWN 30 SSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE BPT 15 NNE LFT 55 E MLU 45 W CBM 55 WSW BNA 50 E BWG 50 ESE JKL 25 NE ROA 55 E SBY ...CONT... 30 ENE VRB 45 W FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW UIL 25 NW UIL 20 SW AST 20 N SLE 45 NNW MFR 20 NW MHS 40 SE RBL 35 SW TVL 40 E SCK 25 W SCK 50 SE UKI 65 W UKI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF CST RGN TO THE CAROLINA CST... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE BUT BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SPEED MAXIMA CROSSING THE PLAINS STATES SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPEN EXISTING TROUGH NOW NEARING THE MID/LWR MS VLY. THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE RAPIDLY E/NE TO THE NC CST BY 12Z TUESDAY. SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE SERN U.S. ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BE COMPLICATED BY EXISTING CONVECTIVE BAND AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE N CNTRL/NERN GULF OF MEXICO. PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND CONFIGURATION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF DEEPENING TROUGH...SUGGEST THAT RICHER GULF MOISTURE LIKELY WILL NOT SPREAD ANY FARTHER N/NE THAN THE IMMEDIATE GULF CST OF SE LA/MS/AL AND NW FL. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT DEEPENING AND EWD REDEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE WAVE NOW OVER MIDDLE TN LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. ...CNTRL/ERN GULF CST TO CAROLINAS... SATELLITE/RADAR DATA SHOW TSTMS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE LA CST. OTHER WEAKER/ ELEVATED STORMS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO FORM INVOF DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OVER WRN MS. THESE TRENDS REFLECT ARRIVAL OF STRONG ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF LEAD SPEED MAX...AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS TROUGH/FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREAD EWD. INLAND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. BUT STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MAIN SPEED MAX WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH /IMPULSE NOW OVER OK/ SUGGEST POSSIBILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OR TWO OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS OVER MS/AL/GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. COUPLED WITH 50-60 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP COULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND...DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE. ONCE DEVELOPED...FORWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE LINE MAY CARRY SEVERE THREAT EWD INTO SC AND SRN NC TONIGHT...WHERE MORE STRONGLY FOCUSED FORCING FOR ASCENT /ASSOCIATED WITH ASSUMPTION OF NEGATIVE TILT/ AND INFLOW OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE COULD MAINTAIN A MODEST DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. IN THE NEAR TERM...STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD LAYER FLOW WITHIN OFFSHORE CONVECTIVE BAND MAY SUPPORT FORMATION OF ONE OR TWO LEFT-SPLIT STORMS THAT POSE A GLANCING THREAT FOR HAIL OVER EXTREME SE LA. FARTHER N...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLDER ENVIRONMENT STORMS IN MS. ..CORFIDI.. 01/30/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 30 16:13:46 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 30 Jan 2006 11:13:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060130161427.EDF558B392@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301611 SWODY1 SPC AC 301609 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1009 AM CST MON JAN 30 2006 VALID 301630Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE SGJ 60 S CTY ...CONT... 25 SSE GPT 20 NW MOB 55 N MOB 40 WNW AUO 40 E RMG 10 NW GSP 30 NNW SOP 15 NNW EWN 30 SSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE BPT 15 NNE LFT 55 E MLU 45 W CBM 55 WSW BNA 50 E BWG 50 ESE JKL 25 NE ROA 55 E SBY ...CONT... 30 ENE VRB 45 W FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW UIL 25 NW UIL 20 SW AST 20 N SLE 45 NNW MFR 20 NW MHS 40 SE RBL 35 SW TVL 40 E SCK 25 W SCK 50 SE UKI 65 W UKI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN GULF COAST NEWD TO CAROLINAS... ...SERN STATES... A VIGOROUS COLD S/WV TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING LOWER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ESEWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OFFSHORE BY 12Z TUE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF TROUGH AND COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS AL/GA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED TO COASTAL REGIONS AL EWD ACROSS FL AND SRN GA. ADDITIONALLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO RELATIVELY WEAK WHICH WILL INITIALLY LIMIT AVAILABLE CONVERGENCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER AS CURRENT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DISSIPATES AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACH 70F SRN AL EWD ACROSS SRN GA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CURRENT BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW MOVING ACROSS WRN AL. REF MCD 90. BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT PARTS SRN GA/NRN FL WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES FORECASTED TO BE AVAILABLE. THE EXIT REGION OF A 100KT 500 MB WIND MAX WILL BE TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS NRN FL THIS EVENING PROVIDING STRONG UPWARD MOTION/DIVERGENCE. HAVE INCREASED THE TORNADO PROBABILITIES THIS AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. OTHERWISE THE PREDOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW EXPECTED TO BE INITIALLY MULTICELLULAR EVOLVING INTO POSSIBLE BOW/LINE SEGMENTS BY THIS EVENING UNDER THE STRONG FLOW AND UPPER FORCING AS THE TROUGH DRIVES EWD ACROSS AL/GA. A LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A MORE WIND DAMAGE CONCERN DURING THE EVENING AS STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS SC AND POSSIBLY SRN NC. ..HALES.. 01/30/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 30 19:58:44 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 30 Jan 2006 14:58:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060130195926.14FA58B366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301957 SWODY1 SPC AC 301955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CST MON JAN 30 2006 VALID 302000Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE BVE 20 WSW MOB 25 W GZH 15 NNW TOI 40 NNE ATL 10 NNE GSP 25 NNW SOP 15 NE EWN 45 SSW HSE ...CONT... 35 ENE SGJ 55 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE VRB 45 W FMY ...CONT... 50 SSW 7R4 35 NW ASD 25 SSE JAN 30 NNW JAN 25 SW LLQ 35 NNE ELD 10 SW HOT 15 NNW RUE 30 S FLP 10 WNW JBR 35 WSW DYR 10 E MKL 45 ESE MKL 15 SSW BNA 25 ENE BWG 30 WNW LEX 25 SE LUK 50 SSW CMH 10 SW UNI 15 N HTS 35 SSW HTS 45 SE JKL 20 NNW HSS AVL 25 WSW HKY 50 NNE HKY 30 SSW SHD 40 NE CHO 60 E WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW UIL UIL AST 25 WNW SLE 50 E OTH 40 S MFR 40 NNW RBL 45 SE RBL 35 N SAC 45 WNW SAC 20 S UKI 60 WNW UKI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/NRN FL... ...SRN AL/GA AND NRN FL... STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN THE RANGE OF -25C TO -30C CONTINUES TO SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. PREFRONTAL MCS AND STRONG WIND SHIFT PRECEED THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NRN GA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. TRAILING SEGMENT OF THE MCS OUTFLOW EXTENDS FROM SWRN GA...ACROSS SRN AL...AND THE WRN FL PNHDL ATTM. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF FORCING HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S F WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 55-60F. EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO INCREASE FROM SRN AL ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. NOSE OF 90-100KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST COINCIDENT WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG THE WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT. RESULTANT STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...SOME HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. ...SC/SRN NC... PREFRONTAL MCS AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT WILL DEVELOP EAST FROM NRN GA INTO WARM BUT RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS SC AND PARTS OF SRN NC. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY STRONG UPPER FORCING LATER TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD FRONT SURGES EAST. THIS CONVECTION MAY FORM INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS AND COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH A CHANCE OF WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR SHOULD EVOLVE FROM CNTRL SC ACROSS SERN NC LATER TONIGHT WHERE MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR/FORCING ARE FORECAST TO CO-EXIST. ...AR... CU/TCU HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH MID LEVEL COLD POOL OVER AR. DESPITE VERY DRY AIR MASS...LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT DUE TO VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ISOLATED TSTMS COULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINAL/SMALL HAIL CONSIDERING COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ..CARBIN.. 01/30/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 31 00:53:04 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 30 Jan 2006 19:53:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060131005346.3C99C8B397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310050 SWODY1 SPC AC 310049 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CST MON JAN 30 2006 VALID 310100Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S PNS 20 ENE PNS 45 NE DHN 15 N MCN 20 E AGS 35 ENE OGB 50 S CRE ...CONT... 40 NNE SGJ 45 SW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE GPT 25 E MOB 20 S AUO 25 ENE RMG 45 ENE CHA 20 SSW TRI 25 S BLF ROA 30 SSW SHD 40 NE CHO 60 E WAL ...CONT... 30 ENE VRB 50 W FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW RBL 35 NW RBL MHS 30 WNW LKV 35 E LKV 15 WSW WMC 40 WSW U31 50 NNW BIH 25 NW FAT 20 WSW MER 30 WNW SCK 25 SSW RBL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/NRN FL... ...SERN STATES... UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER TN/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS IT TRANSLATES EWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE/SRN ATLANTIC COAST. 100 KT MID LEVEL JET NOSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /150-180 METERS/ OVER THE SERN STATES. EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SWRN VA/NWRN NC WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD THROUGH NRN GA TO SERN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE. 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY LIMITING CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT MOVES EWD. BY 12Z TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE NC COAST...WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SSWWD OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST TO CENTRAL FL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY AS STRONG FORCING/LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH SPREADS EWD ATOP A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE SERN STATES. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND A PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM ERN SC SWWD INTO SERN GA/ERN FL PANHANDLE. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND FLOW WILL SUPPORT LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST FROM FAR SERN AL EWD ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL INTO PARTS OF SRN SC BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST LATER TONIGHT. ..PETERS.. 01/31/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 31 05:22:29 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 31 Jan 2006 00:22:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060131052312.21BCB8B376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310521 SWODY1 SPC AC 310519 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 PM CST MON JAN 30 2006 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE CRE 35 NW ILM 25 NNW RIC 35 WSW DOV 45 E ACY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... STRONG/DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AND BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE ALONG OR JUST OFF THE NC COAST AT 12Z TODAY...WITH THIS LOW UNDERGOING VERY STRONG DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NEWD TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE WATERS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT STRONG ASCENT WITH THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT N TO NW OF THE SURFACE LOW MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING. ANY ONSHORE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE OFFSHORE BY 18Z AS STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM SHIFTS ENEWD. ...CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES... UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE GREAT BASIN PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY REACHING WRN TX LATE TONIGHT. DESPITE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THIS SYSTEM...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN TOO COLD TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ..PETERS.. 01/31/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 31 12:37:19 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 31 Jan 2006 07:37:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060131123756.B19218B3A7@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311235 SWODY1 SPC AC 311233 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2006 VALID 311300Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S ILM 35 SE FAY 45 E RWI 25 N RIC 35 WSW DOV 45 E ACY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... DEEP TROUGH NOW OVER NC SHOULD CONTINUE ENE THROUGH THE PERIOD... REACHING AREA S OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...EXPECT PROGRESSIVE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER CA/SRN NV TO REACH THE KELP AREA. ERN SYSTEM REMAINS VERY COMPLEX ATTM...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THIS MORNING. ANY LINGERING THUNDER JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM UPR VORT CENTER SHOULD ALSO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THAT TIME. NEITHER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES NOR MOISTURE AVAILABILITY APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR LIGHTNING WITH SYSTEM CROSSING THE SWRN STATES... ALTHOUGH A STRIKE OR TWO COULD OCCUR DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION/WRN CO. ..CORFIDI.. 01/31/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 31 16:16:14 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 31 Jan 2006 11:16:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060131161652.A6D438B382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311613 SWODY1 SPC AC 311611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1011 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2006 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER CONUS WITH VIGOROUS DISTURBANCES MOVING RAPIDLY EWD. STRONG TROUGH NOW EXITING E COAST TAKING THE EARLIER THUNDER THREAT WITH IT. UPSTREAM S/WV OVER SWRN U.S. WILL BE MOVING INTO SWRN TX BY 12Z WED. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP W TX TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW COMMENCING FROM WRN GULF. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT S TX WITH 60S F LIKELY MOVING ONSHORE BY WED AM. ANY INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF TROUGH TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN EXPECTED STRONG CAP. MOIST...ONSHORE FLOW OF MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SPREADS INLAND TONIGHT PAC NW COAST. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR THE COAST BUT COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO SUFFICIENT FOR A GENERAL THUNDER FORECAST. ..HALES.. 01/31/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 31 19:30:38 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 31 Jan 2006 14:30:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060131193116.0D8BB8B38A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311929 SWODY1 SPC AC 311927 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2006 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS POWERFUL PACIFIC JET STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST TONIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AS STRONG DYNAMICS AND WEAK INSTABILITY MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND CHANCES FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEAR QUITE LOW. ..CARBIN.. 01/31/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 1 00:48:27 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 31 Dec 2005 19:48:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601010050.k010o6ei004799@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010043 SWODY1 SPC AC 010042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CST SAT DEC 31 2005 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW BLI 25 SSW SEA 30 SE SLE 15 S MFR 30 ENE MHS 50 S REO 35 N EKO 50 NNE ELY 50 N P38 55 NNE DRA 45 ESE BIH 20 WNW FAT 30 S SFO 60 W SFO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PACIFIC COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN OUT AND MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING IN CNTRL CA AND ERN NV TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. FURTHER WEST IN THE ERN PACIFIC...ANOTHER UPPER-TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS A RESULT...A STRONG BAND OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF ORE AND WA LIKELY RESULTING IN A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COMBINATIONS SHOULD BE TOO MARGINAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS. ..BROYLES.. 01/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 1 05:58:56 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 00:58:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601010600.k0160ZLL015683@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010558 SWODY1 SPC AC 010556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CST SAT DEC 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW GZH 30 SSE MEI 40 SW CBM 15 SSW MKL 25 ENE PAH 25 NNE EVV 25 NNW SDF 25 W LEX 35 NNE CSV 35 NNE ATL 15 WNW MCN 20 NNW ABY 20 WSW DHN 30 WSW GZH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLM 25 N SLE 10 W MHS 35 E SJC 35 NE SBA 50 S LGB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ERI 20 NW LBE 45 NNW SSU 25 S BLF 40 N CAE 55 ESE SAV ...CONT... 30 ESE SGJ 35 SSE OCF 45 WSW PIE ...CONT... 50 S BVE 40 W JAN 25 SSW POF 15 SSE SPI 45 NE MKE 20 SSW HTL 40 NE MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY... ...GULF COAST/TN VALLEY/OH VALLEY... A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN US WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS STATES TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON. ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION/SFC HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE NEWD INTO SCNTRL AL AND SWRN GA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY HAVE ACCESS TO MID 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL THROUGH. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTING A FEW SUPERCELLS OR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP ALLOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TO INITIATE. A CLUSTER OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT FROM NE MS ACROSS WRN TN IN NRN AL. INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRONG SHEAR AS A MID-LEVEL JET BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. DISCRETE CELLS WILL HAVE AN ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL AS THE STORMS QUICKLY MOVE NEWD ACROSS CNTRL TN AND NRN AL. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WRN KY AND SRN IND AS THE 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THAT REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAKER...THE STRONG ASCENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 70 KT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES ENEWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. ...PACIFIC COAST... A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST TONIGHT WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF CA...ORE AND WA. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 01/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 1 12:40:02 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 07:40:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601011241.k01CffJJ011537@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011239 SWODY1 SPC AC 011237 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 AM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HUM 25 E BTR 35 W MEI 15 SSW MKL 25 ENE PAH 25 NNE EVV 25 NNW SDF 25 W LEX 35 NNE CSV 35 NNE ATL 15 WNW MCN 55 WSW VDI 15 NNE VLD 35 E AAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLM 25 ENE PDX 25 E MHS MER BFL 50 S LGB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SGJ 35 SSE OCF 45 WSW PIE ...CONT... 50 SSE 7R4 40 N HEZ 30 WNW CGI 10 NE UIN 25 WNW JVL 15 ENE DTW ...CONT... 30 NW ERI 20 NW LBE 45 NNW SSU 25 S BLF CLT 20 SSW CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND INTO THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS... ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... SRN STREAM IMPULSE...WELL DEFINED ON WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE TX COAST...WILL CONTINUE EJECTING ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S OFFSHORE ATTM...AND MODELS LIFT UPPER 60F/LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO SERN LA/SRN MS/SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CERTAIN HOW FAR NWD COASTAL BOUNDARY/TRUE MARINE LAYER WILL DEVELOP TODAY...THOUGH 09Z RUC DEPICTS THIS BOUNDARY OVER FAR SRN GA WNWWD INTO SRN/CENTRAL MS AT 21Z. THEREFORE...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD BECOME COLLOCATED AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM INTO AT LEAST SERN LA...FAR SRN MS/AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY 18Z...AND SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHO STRUCTURES UNDER 40-50 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM SYSTEM. THEREFORE...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AS AFTERNOON HEATING ALLOWS STORMS TO ROOT INTO VERY MOIST...MARINE AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF COASTAL FRONT. LATE IN THE PERIOD...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/SUPERCELL THREAT MAY INCREASE AGAIN OVER THIS AREA AHEAD OF DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND ANY NIGHTTIME STORMS WILL POSE AT LEAST A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND TORNADOES. ...OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS... DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. GULF MOISTURE RETURN IS ALREADY UNDERWAY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LEADING EDGE OF 60F ISODROSOTHERM OVER ERN TX/SRN AR/CENTRAL MS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION NWD INTO MUCH OF THE MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY UNDER SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS STRONG/DEEP ASCENT EJECTS ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER A LARGE AREA WITHIN MOISTENING WARM SECTOR AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MUCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION. IN ADDITION... EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 45-50 KT WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FROM STRONGER STORMS. AS SURFACE THETA-E AND DEEP ASCENT INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT...STORMS MAY ROOT NEARER THE SURFACE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO THREATS. ..EVANS.. 01/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 1 16:37:30 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 11:37:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601011639.k01Gd8NF019505@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011636 SWODY1 SPC AC 011634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 AM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S HUM 30 NNW MSY 30 E JAN 40 WSW UOX 60 NE PBF 15 N BVX 40 ESE TBN 30 WNW STL DEC 20 W IND 55 W LUK 35 SE SDF 35 NNE CSV 30 N ATL 15 WNW MCN 55 WSW VDI 15 NNE VLD 45 SE AAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SGJ 30 NW AGR 40 WSW APF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S 7R4 45 N HEZ 30 ESE RUE 15 NE HRO 20 NE SZL 40 ENE OTM 20 NNE DBQ 15 ENE MSN 40 W MKG 30 SW LAN 40 W CLE 20 NE PKB 25 SE CRW 45 ENE TRI 30 SW CLT 30 SSE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLM 20 NW PDX 40 SW MFR 45 E EKA 25 NE UKI 40 WSW MER 40 WSW BFL 30 S OXR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.... ...N CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST TODAY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ENEWD OVER SRN LA. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE OVER SE LA/MS/AL TODAY. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING NWD/INLAND OVER LA...SRN MS/AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY...BENEATH 7-7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT DESTABILIZATION INLAND TODAY WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS AND NWD MOISTURE ADVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR AND N OF THE WARM FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE BY ROUGHLY MIDDAY FROM SE LA TO SRN AL...AND THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EWD. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...PORTIONS OF MID MS/LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS TONIGHT... A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS EWD/ENEWD TO THE MS VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SW KS TO NE MO. A RELATIVELY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME AND A SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS UNLIKELY ALONG THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE ACROSS ERN TX/WRN AR THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE TONIGHT NEAR AND E OF THE MS RIVER AND WITHIN THE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME THAT WILL SPREAD NWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 50 KT LLJ. STRONG L0W-MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR AND MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DESPITE A SLIGHTLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RICH MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ...PAC COAST TODAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY... THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH AN INTENSE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD/INLAND OVER THE NW CA/ORE/WA COASTS TODAY. SUBSTANTIAL LIGHTNING AND ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED JUST OFF THE NW CA/SW ORE COASTS...IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH EXTREMELY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN WHILE ENCOUNTERING THE RELATIVELY DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR MASS THAT IS BEING MAINTAINED ALONG THE COAST BY SELY/OFFSHORE FLOW. ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA COAST WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE TSTM THREAT EARLY MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH NEAR 135 W APPROACHES THE COAST. ..THOMPSON.. 01/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 1 20:04:25 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 15:04:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601012006.k01K62Md028677@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 012002 SWODY1 SPC AC 012001 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0201 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E BVE HUM 30 NW MSY 15 W MEI 35 WSW CBM 25 NNE MEM 30 S FAM 25 E VIH 20 WSW JEF 35 NW COU 30 ESE IRK 25 NE UIN 35 ENE BMI LAF 20 E IND 35 N SDF 45 E BWG 25 NNW CHA 15 NE RMG 15 ESE ATL 15 E MCN 50 WSW VDI 25 W AYS 35 ESE VLD 20 N CTY 25 WSW CTY 65 SW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE MLB 10 ESE AGR 45 S SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLM 20 NW PDX 40 SW MFR 45 E EKA 25 NE UKI 20 ENE SFO 40 ESE MRY 20 SSW VBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S LCH 35 N LFT 50 NNE HEZ 55 WSW MEM 30 W UNO 40 NNW SGF 25 SSE OJC 35 NE STJ 25 SW OXV 20 WSW CID 30 WSW DBQ 40 E RAC 50 WNW CLE 25 W HLG 45 ENE CRW 25 ESE TRI 20 SW HKY 25 N FLO 15 NE CRE 35 ESE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...GULF COAST TO TN VALLEY... WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE NCNTRL GULF COAST WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY BEING ENHANCED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE NOW PASSING OVER SERN LA. ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION CURRENTLY APPEARS DISTINCT FROM THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE POWERFUL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS IMPULSE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATER TODAY. WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/ WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WITHIN WEST-TO-EAST BAND FROM SRN LA/MS ACROSS AL/SRN GA AND NRN FL. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40KT...AND RELATIVELY LIMITED INHIBITION COULD LEAD TO A FEW ROTATING STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH A CHANCE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND. SEE LATEST SWOMCD NUMBER 0003 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ...LOWER OH VALLEY/MIDWEST TO TN VALLEY LATE... POWERFUL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING EAST FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH 80-90KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS EAST TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. VERY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT AND PROMOTE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AFTER DARK. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL OVERSPREAD LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS FROM MIDDLE TN TO THE MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT. STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...AND EMBEDDED WITHIN EVOLVING COMMA-HEAD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. WIND/TORNADO THREAT OVERNIGHT IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS. GREATER CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR APPEARS TO BE IN VICINITY OF RETREATING WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ..CARBIN.. 01/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 01:02:08 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 20:02:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601020103.k0213jSw022380@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020101 SWODY1 SPC AC 020100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S BVE 30 ESE PIB 20 NW MEI 20 SE UOX 25 NNW MEM 20 ENE UNO 15 W VIH 40 SSW UIN 20 SSE BMI 30 WNW IND 50 SE IND 10 N LEX 30 NW TYS 30 SSE ATL 15 W MGR 55 SSE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLM 20 NW PDX 40 SW MFR 45 E EKA 25 NE UKI 20 ENE SFO 40 ESE MRY 20 SSW VBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE MLB 10 ESE AGR 45 S SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW HUM 20 SSE MCB 20 W JAN 30 NNE GLH 45 ENE LIT 30 NNE HRO 10 E MKC 35 WNW CDJ 15 NE OXV 30 SW DBQ 40 E RAC 50 WNW CLE 25 W HLG 45 ENE CRW 25 ESE TRI 20 SW HKY 25 N FLO 15 NE CRE 35 ESE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY... ...GULF COAST... A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS ONGOING ACROSS SRN AL...SW GA AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THE DEVELOPING MCS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING SWRN AL EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY. THE ACTIVITY IS JUST NORTH OF A 55 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE STRONG SHEAR IS CONFIRMED BY REGIONAL 88D VAD WIND PROFILES SHOWING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KTS. THIS COMBINED WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP A SUPERCELL THREAT GOING THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING WITH A ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT. AS THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES ACROSS SRN GA LATE THIS EVENING...A DECREASE IN INSTABILITY TO THE EAST SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. ...OH AND TN VALLEYS... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL CONTINUE A QUICK EWD PROGRESSION INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. THE RIGHT SIDE OF AN 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH THE REGION CAUSING A FOCUSED BAND OF INTENSE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING IN WRN MO AND THESE MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT IN THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS FROM SRN IL SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY. SEVERAL LARGE CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDING ACROSS THE REGION AT 09Z SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES INCREASING TO 60 KT WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER INSTABILITY. LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP CONTINUING THROUGH DAYBREAK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. ...WEST COAST... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE ERN PACIFIC...ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF WA AND ORE. THIS FIRST TROUGH WILL LIFT NWD AS ANOTHER LARGER TROUGH DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE PACIFIC COAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF CA...ORE AND WA. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 01/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 06:01:59 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 01:01:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601020603.k0263aJf029633@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020601 SWODY1 SPC AC 020559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW PNS 20 WNW SEM 20 N HSV 20 ENE BNA 30 E BWG 25 SW LEX 25 ESE LEX 15 WNW JKL 15 SSW JKL 45 SSE LOZ 25 NNE TYS 15 SW TYS 40 E CHA 30 N ATL 35 SSW AHN 40 SSE AHN 40 SE AHN 40 N AGS 35 SE CLT 35 SW SOP 35 NNE FLO 20 ENE FLO CHS 25 NNE SSI 20 NNE CTY 45 WSW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE BVE 40 NE BVE 35 E PIB 30 SSW CBM 20 ENE MKL 20 NW EVV 20 W IND 40 ENE MIE 15 NNE CMH PKB 35 E CRW 15 WNW BLF 15 NNW AVL 25 SW AVL 25 W GSP SPA 35 E HKY 15 ENE DAN 20 NE AVC 40 WSW ORF 30 NW HSE 50 SSW HSE ...CONT... 30 ESE SGJ 30 WSW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 35 SSW OLM 50 S EUG 35 ESE MHS 40 NW RNO 20 N NFL 40 NNW P68 30 WNW U24 50 SE U24 45 NW U17 40 ENE GCN 25 N PRC 35 N BLH 15 SE RAL 35 SSW OXR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S HUM 15 ESE JAN 10 NNE MEM 25 SSE POF 40 ENE VIH 25 N COU 20 NNW CDJ 10 SW SDA 35 E OLU 20 W SUX 15 S OTG MKT 30 NNE VOK 35 WNW MBS 30 NE MTC ...CONT... 25 NW ERI 20 N DUJ 10 ENE AOO 15 ESE HGR 20 ESE BWI 25 SSW DOV 50 ESE SBY ...CONT... 45 NNE MLB 50 W FMY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS GULF COAST STATES...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS... ...AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE/TN AND OH VALLEYS/CAROLINAS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM ERN KS ACROSS OK INTO EAST TX. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY THIS MORNING...A 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WITH LOW TO MID 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE OH RIVER. AN IMPRESSIVE SPLIT MID-LEVEL JET WILL NOSE NEWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING ENHANCING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. AS A RESULT...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH SEVERAL MCS CLUSTERS DEVELOPING AND DRIFTING EWD FROM THE OH RIVER SWD TO ERN MS AND AL. STORMS WILL ORGANIZE ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOIST AXIS AS A DRY SLOT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL FORECASTS RAPIDLY STEEPEN LAPSE RATES BY DAYBREAK JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND ERN AL. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE ONGOING EAST OF THE MOIST AXIS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES SHOULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT AS AN MCS DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LONG TRACK TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL AL...SWRN AND CNTRL GA AND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE ESPECIALLY FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS FORECAST TO BE THE STRONGEST. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD DURING THE DAY...NAM AND GFS FORECASTS DEVELOP A CONVECTIVE LINE FROM THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS INTO CNTRL GA AND SE AL. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EWD...WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DEEP LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ENHANCED WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES AS THE LINE ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE SC...GA AND NRN FL. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD EXPAND EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...GA AND FL DURING THE EVENING GRADUALLY ALLOWING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO DECREASE AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. ...PACIFIC COAST... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ORGANIZE AND APPROACH THE WEST COAST TODAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MID-DAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOCUSING EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE IN CA...NV AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 01/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 06:15:05 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 01:15:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601020616.k026GeS7032560@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020614 SWODY1 SPC AC 020613 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW PNS 20 WNW SEM 20 N HSV 20 ENE BNA 30 E BWG 25 SW LEX 25 ESE LEX 15 WNW JKL 15 SSW JKL 45 SSE LOZ 25 NNE TYS 15 SW TYS 40 E CHA 30 N ATL 35 SSW AHN 40 SSE AHN 40 SE AHN 40 N AGS 35 SE CLT 35 SW SOP 35 NNE FLO 20 ENE FLO CHS 25 NNE SSI 20 NNE CTY 45 WSW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE BVE 40 NE BVE 35 E PIB 30 SSW CBM 20 ENE MKL 20 NW EVV 20 W IND 40 ENE MIE 15 NNE CMH PKB 35 E CRW 15 WNW BLF 15 NNW AVL 25 SW AVL 25 W GSP SPA 35 E HKY 15 ENE DAN 20 NE AVC 40 WSW ORF 30 NW HSE 50 SSW HSE ...CONT... 30 ESE SGJ 30 WSW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 35 SSW OLM 50 S EUG 35 ESE MHS 40 NW RNO 20 N NFL 40 NNW P68 30 WNW U24 50 SE U24 45 NW U17 40 ENE GCN 25 N PRC 35 N BLH 15 SE RAL 35 SSW OXR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S HUM 15 ESE JAN 10 NNE MEM 25 SSE POF 40 ENE VIH 25 N COU 20 NNW CDJ 10 SW SDA 35 E OLU 20 W SUX 15 S OTG MKT 30 NNE VOK 35 WNW MBS 30 NE MTC ...CONT... 25 NW ERI 20 N DUJ 10 ENE AOO 15 ESE HGR 20 ESE BWI 25 SSW DOV 50 ESE SBY ...CONT... 45 NNE MLB 50 W FMY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS... CORRECTED FOR HAIL...WIND DAMAGE PROBABILITY GRAPHICS ...AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE/TN AND OH VALLEYS/CAROLINAS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM ERN KS ACROSS OK INTO EAST TX. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY THIS MORNING...A 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WITH LOW TO MID 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE OH RIVER. AN IMPRESSIVE SPLIT MID-LEVEL JET WILL NOSE NEWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING ENHANCING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. AS A RESULT...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH SEVERAL MCS CLUSTERS DEVELOPING AND DRIFTING EWD FROM THE OH RIVER SWD TO ERN MS AND AL. STORMS WILL ORGANIZE ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOIST AXIS AS A DRY SLOT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL FORECASTS RAPIDLY STEEPEN LAPSE RATES BY DAYBREAK JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND ERN AL. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE ONGOING EAST OF THE MOIST AXIS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES SHOULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT AS AN MCS DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LONG TRACK TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL AL...SWRN AND CNTRL GA AND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE ESPECIALLY FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS FORECAST TO BE THE STRONGEST. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD DURING THE DAY...NAM AND GFS FORECASTS DEVELOP A CONVECTIVE LINE FROM THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS INTO CNTRL GA AND SE AL. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EWD...WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DEEP LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ENHANCED WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES AS THE LINE ADVANCES EWD ACROSS SC...GA AND NRN FL. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD EXPAND EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...GA AND FL DURING THE EVENING GRADUALLY ALLOWING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO DECREASE AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. ...PACIFIC COAST... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ORGANIZE AND APPROACH THE WEST COAST TODAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MID-DAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOCUSING EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE IN CA...NV AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 01/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 12:38:29 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 07:38:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601021240.k02Ce37Y027301@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021238 SWODY1 SPC AC 021237 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW PNS 30 NW PNS 25 NNE GZH 20 WNW AUO 30 S ATL 45 ESE AHN 35 NNE CAE FLO 35 WSW CRE 30 SSE AYS 65 ESE AAF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BVE 50 ESE MEI 15 NW TCL 10 SSW MEM 30 W POF 25 E UIN 15 WNW PIA 25 W FWA 30 N CMH 10 N PKB 35 E CRW 15 WNW BLF 15 NNW AVL 25 SW AVL 25 W GSP SPA 35 E HKY 15 ENE DAN 20 NE AVC 40 WSW ORF 30 NW HSE 50 SSW HSE ...CONT... 30 ESE SGJ 30 WSW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 35 SSW OLM 50 S EUG 35 ESE MHS 40 NW RNO 35 SE NFL 40 SW ELY 40 NW MLF 40 ESE MLF 25 NW PGA 40 ENE GCN 25 N PRC 35 N BLH 15 SE RAL 35 SSW OXR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW ERI 20 N DUJ 10 ENE AOO 15 ESE HGR 20 ESE BWI 25 SSW DOV 50 ESE SBY ...CONT... 45 NNE MLB 50 W FMY ...CONT... 60 S HUM 20 ESE MEI 25 SW CBM 45 WSW MEM 15 ENE UNO 25 N COU 25 SW OTM 20 SSW ALO 35 S LSE 10 WSW MTW 35 WNW MBS 30 NE MTC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NERN GULF COAST TO ERN SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE MS/OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO ERN NC... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY AHEAD OF POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS MO/AR/LA. GULF MOISTURE RETURN IS EVIDENT EAST OF THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND WEST OF THE TN RIVER VALLEY WITH LOWER 60+ F SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW IN PLACE. SURFACE LOW NOW MOVING INTO NERN MO WILL TRACK EWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN IND BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND LIFTING NWD NORTH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY. FATHER SOUTH...WEDGE FRONT HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM CENTRAL SC INTO CENTRAL GA...AIDED BY EXTENSIVE AREA OF OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO SRN GA. SECONDARY WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEFINING LEADING EDGE OF RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS E-W ACROSS SRN GA INTO SERN/CENTRAL AL. ...MID SOUTH ACROSS THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS... ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF A BROKEN SQUALL LINE CONTINUES AT 12Z ALONG THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF STRONG AND DEEP LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND SHIFT STEADILY EWD INTO A DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. DESPITE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES UNDER SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS AOA 40 KT ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHOES...WITH ADDITIONAL TORNADO POTENTIAL GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITHIN BACKED SURFACE WIND FIELDS AHEAD OF NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SRN/CENTRAL IL/IND AND SWRN OH TODAY...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY BUILDING SWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL KY AND TN BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AND SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO THE CAROLINAS... COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...DUE TO EXTENSIVE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN BROAD LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME OVER MUCH OF GA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP ENOUGH FOR MODEST ELEVATED CAPE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES THIS MORNING. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S REMAIN IN PLACE SOUTH OF COASTAL FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING E-W ACROSS SRN GA AND THEN EXTENDING NWWD INTO CENTRAL AL. AS STRONG SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED DEEP ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE SRN APPALACHIANS...PRIMARY WARM FRONT MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED NEARER CURRENT WEDGE FRONT INTO CENTRAL GA/SC DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD ALLOW A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SERN AL AND CENTRAL GA/SC. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD THIS ENTIRE REGION AS 90 KT H5 JET DIGS ACROSS MS THIS AFTERNOON AND NOSES ACROSS NRN FL OVERNIGHT. 12Z TLH SOUNDING SUGGESTS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD GREATLY INCREASE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE/SRN GA DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING WITH WEAK INHIBITION...MODERATE MLCAPE...AND VERY STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE PRIMARY WARM FRONT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS. STORM-MOTION VECTORS ARE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN STRONG ELY COMPONENT AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AS STORMS MOVE ALONG EXPECTED E-W SURFACE FRONT. SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING TORNADOES...WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE RETURNS. ..EVANS.. 01/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 16:53:29 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 11:53:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601021655.k02Gt2AE026489@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021652 SWODY1 SPC AC 021650 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW PFN 20 ENE CEW TOI 10 W AUO 35 WNW MCN 25 WNW AGS 25 NE CAE FLO 40 SW CRE 20 N CTY 55 SSE TLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SGJ 30 WSW PIE ...CONT... 30 WSW BVE 50 ESE MEI 30 NNW TCL 35 ESE MEM 20 E PAH 10 S MTO 30 NE PIA 30 WSW FWA 30 N CMH 10 N PKB 35 E CRW 15 WNW BLF 15 NNW AVL 20 SW AVL 25 W GSP 15 SE SPA 35 E HKY 15 ENE DAN 20 NE AVC 40 WSW ORF 30 NW HSE 50 SSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE MLB 50 W FMY ...CONT... 60 S HUM 30 SE MEI 20 SSE CBM 10 NW UOX 25 WSW PAH 40 NE VIH 10 ENE UIN 20 ENE MLI 35 S LSE 10 WSW MTW 35 WNW MBS 30 NE MTC ...CONT... 25 NW ERI 20 N DUJ 10 ENE AOO 15 ESE HGR 20 ESE BWI 25 SSW DOV 50 ESE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 35 SSW OLM 50 S EUG 35 ESE MHS 40 NW RNO 35 SE NFL 40 SW ELY 40 NW MLF 40 ESE MLF 25 NW PGA 40 ENE GCN 25 N PRC 35 N BLH 15 SE RAL 35 SSW OXR. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE...SERN AL...GA...SRN/ERN SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM NRN FL NWWD TO SRN INDIANA/SRN OH/ERN IL...AND MUCH OF CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES PRIMARY TROUGHS INITIALLY OFFSHORE CA AND OVER MS VALLEY. PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH LATTER FEATURE -- EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA OVER NRN MO -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY...REACHING VICINITY TN/VA BORDER BY 3/12Z. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE -- INITIALLY OVER WRN IL -- WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN OH AND WEAKEN AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS GETS UNDERWAY OVER TIDEWATER REGION OF VA/NC. MEANWHILE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS REGION THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. TROUGH OFFSHORE CA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN CA. OTHERWISE SEE GEOGRAPHIC SECTIONS BELOW FOR PERTINENT SFC FEATURES. ...SERN CONUS... REF WW 5 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFORMATION REGARDING BAND OF STRONG-SVR TSTMS CURRENTLY FROM SWRN GA ACROSS FL PANHANDLE. SFC...925 AND 850 MB ANALYSES SHOW MARKED ZONE OF RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE SFC AIR OVER SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS NEWD...WRN BOUNDARY OF WHICH IS RETREATING SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS NERN AL/NWRN GA. SERN EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS SHOULD DRIFT NWD OVER ERN GA AND SRN SC AHEAD OF MAIN ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND. WAA AND DIABATIC HEATING WILL AID NEWD EROSION OF COLD AIR WEDGE OVER GA AND EVENTUALLY SC...POSSIBLY INTO SRN/WRN NC THIS EVENING. TORNADO AND WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE STRONGLY TIED TO EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF ASSOCIATED SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION...HENCE DECREASE IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES NEWD ACROSS REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL AND BOW POTENTIAL BOTH IN EXISTING CONVECTIVE BAND AND IN DESTABILIZING AIR MASS FARTHER W...ALTHOUGH VEERING WIND PROFILE RESULT IN STRAIGHTER HODOGRAPHS AND SMALLER PROJECTED SRH BETWEEN EXISTING CONVECTIVE BAND AND SFC COLD FRONT. DEEP-LAYER SHEARS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS GA/CAROLINAS WITH TIME THROUGH TONIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APCHS...AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT STRENGTHEN. SHEAR/VORTICITY ALSO WILL BE ENHANCED INVOF RETREATING WEDGE/FRONT...FURTHER AIDING TORNADO POTENTIAL ON MESOSCALE. GIVEN SHEAR PROFILES...ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO. ...OH VALLEY REGION... SFC WARM FRONT IS EVIDENT FROM NERN AL NNWWD ACROSS CENTRAL KY TO SWRN AL...INTERSECTING SQUALL LINE INVOF SRN PORTION IL/INDIANA BORDER. EXPECT WARM FRONT TO RETREAT ENEWD ACROSS TN/KY AND SRN INDIANA THROUGH AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE CONVECTIVE BAND NOW OVER THIS REGION THROUGH MUCH OF AFTERNOON. REF SPC WWS 4 AND 6...AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS -- FOR NEAR-TERM INFO. NEAR-FRONTAL TSTM BAND SHOULD GRADUALLY OVERTAKE EWD MOVING WARM FRONT OVER OH VALLEY THROUGH 00Z...RESULTING IN SFC-BASED INSTABILITY DECREASING WITH TIME AND FROM N-S IN INFLOW LAYER. MEANWHILE BAND WILL BACKBUILD SWD INTO TN VALLEY REGION...RESULTING IN SEWD NET SHIFT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM ONGOING WW AREAS TOWARD CENTRAL PORTIONS KY/TN. BOWS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SLGT POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ...CENTRAL/SRN CA... PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH APCHS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN WITH APCH OF TROUGH ALOFT...WHILE SFC FLOW BACKS ACROSS CENTRAL VALLEY BECAUSE OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING. MAIN CAVEAT WILL BE TIMING/EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION BEHIND ONGOING PRECIP PLUME...DURING ROUGHLY 20Z-00Z TIME FRAME. MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR 20Z OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 01/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 19:58:19 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 14:58:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601021959.k02JxqJf001044@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021956 SWODY1 SPC AC 021954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE PNS 35 E TOI 30 ESE ANB 30 WNW GAD 15 ENE MSL 55 WSW BNA 30 SE OWB 15 SW BMG 20 WSW LAF 40 NE LAF 30 N CMH 25 NW PKB 15 NNE CRW 35 WSW BKW 15 NNW HSS 40 W AVL 30 NNW AND 15 SE SPA 35 ENE CLT 30 E GSO 30 NW RWI 35 ENE RWI 50 NE EWN 65 SSW HSE ...CONT... 40 E SGJ 45 WSW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW ERI 20 N DUJ 10 ENE AOO 15 ESE HGR 20 ESE BWI 25 SSW DOV 50 ESE SBY ...CONT... 45 NNE MLB 50 W FMY ...CONT... 65 SSW PNS 20 S MGM 40 E 0A8 45 SSW MSL 50 NE MKL 40 ENE PAH MVN 15 E ALN 30 ENE UIN 40 ESE DBQ 30 SE OSH 35 WNW MBS 30 NE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 35 SSW OLM 50 S EUG 35 ESE MHS 40 NW RNO 35 SE NFL 40 SW ELY 40 NW MLF 40 ESE MLF 25 NW PGA 40 ENE GCN 25 N PRC 35 N BLH 15 SE RAL 35 SSW OXR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO NRN FL... ...OH/TN VALLEY... MATURING SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS IND/KY AHEAD OF WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS IL. THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING EAST AT ROUGHLY 30KT WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND A FEW PRE-SQUALL LINE SUPERCELLS MOSTLY ACROSS KY. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SEEMS TO REFLECT AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS IND...AND THE TENDENCY FOR LARGE SCALE PROCESSES TO SUPPORT A MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WITH THIS BAND OF CONVECTION HAS IT SPREADS TOWARD SWRN OH/CNTRL KY. SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO MIDDLE TN IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION GIVEN THE VEERING DEEP LAYER FLOW AND THE TENDENCY FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. ...SERN U.S... EARLY MORNING BANDS OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION HAVE PROGRESSED ACROSS ALL BUT SRN GA/NRN FL...TAKING ON AN E-W ORIENTATION AS FLOW DEEPENS FROM THE WEST. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MESO ANALYSIS FIELDS SEEM TO SUPPORT CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WEDGED IN ACROSS GA/SC. CONVECTIVE THERMALS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN THEIR IDENTITY WITHIN STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER...MOST LIKELY DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE/ASCENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ASCENT ATOP COOLER GA AIRMASS LATER THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER UPDRAFTS WILL UTILIZE HIGHER INSTABILITY AIRMASS IN A FASHION NECESSARY FOR SUSTAINED ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE SHORT TERM...STRONG WINDS OR HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ACROSS NRN FL...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LONGER LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ...CA... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AS CENTER OF UPPER CIRCULATION APPROACHES THE COAST. DEEP CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY REGION AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS THE GREATEST RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 01/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 3 01:00:29 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 20:00:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601030102.k03122Kx006717@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030059 SWODY1 SPC AC 030058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE SAV 35 ESE VDI 15 W VDI 40 ESE MCN 50 NE MCN 40 WNW AGS 15 W CAE 35 ESE ILM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE TYS 30 NE TYS 45 SSE JKL 40 S HTS 20 NE HTS 30 SSW PKB 35 NE CRW 30 NNE BKW BLF 35 ESE TRI 10 WNW AVL 35 ESE TYS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE DAB 30 SW SRQ ...CONT... 10 SW AAF 10 E MGR 45 ENE ABY 30 SSE MCN 30 NNW MCN 45 N ATL 40 NE CHA 45 SSW LOZ 30 NW JKL 30 NE LUK 35 ENE MIE 10 S AZO 10 NNW GRR 10 W MBS 50 SE BAX ...CONT... 25 NW ERI 20 N DUJ 10 ENE AOO 15 ESE HGR 20 ESE BWI 25 SSW DOV 50 ESE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE TRM 35 SW DAG 30 NW PMD 15 NW BFL 25 SSE FAT 40 NE FAT 25 N BIH 50 SSW P68 30 SW ENV 20 NNE DPG 25 W PUC 25 WNW U17 15 S GCN 40 SE IGM 35 SW EED 50 NNE TRM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN GA AND SC... ...ERN GA...SC AND SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY WITH A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE SRN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS ONGOING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT ACROSS ERN GA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 60 TO 70 KT RANGE WITH MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG EXTENDING NEARLY TO THE SC-GA STATE-LINE. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING IN SRN SC INCREASE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR AS THE NOSE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AFFECTS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 F SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES AS THE MCS TRACKS EWD ACROSS FAR ERN GA INTO SRN SC. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE RELATIVELY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE LINE SUGGEST LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS EVENING. THE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC BY LATE EVENING. FURTHER NORTH IN THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS ONGOING IN ERN KY AND ERN TN. THE STORMS ARE JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ARE IN A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS SUGGESTED BY OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKENING SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS THAT ARE ONGOING. THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND DECREASING SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ...INTERMOUTAIN WEST... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER CNTRL CA EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL CA AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY INITIATE ACROSS SRN NV...NW AZ AND SW UT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 01/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 3 05:38:51 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 03 Jan 2006 00:38:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601030540.k035eNAh013538@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030536 SWODY1 SPC AC 030535 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S ILM 10 WSW OAJ 45 NNE EWN 45 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW BLI 40 E AST 50 ESE OTH 70 WNW UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A FEW LINGERING STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS FAR ERN NC. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE MORNING...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF WA...ORE AND NRN CA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD DECREASE AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND DURING THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE STORMS TO DIMINISH. ..BROYLES.. 01/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 3 12:25:45 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 03 Jan 2006 07:25:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601031227.k03CRGTs027878@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031225 SWODY1 SPC AC 031223 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0623 AM CST TUE JAN 03 2006 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N CLM 40 E AST 40 WNW MHS 55 W SFO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PAC NW COAST... ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE WA/ORE/NRN CA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND LATER TODAY. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT IN OPEN CELL CU FIELD IN WAKE OF SURFACE FRONT...AND WITHIN BROAD MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM NOW JUST OFF THE WA/ORE COAST. WITH ENHANCED LIFT AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS PRE-FRONTAL RAIN BAND OVERSPREADS THE COAST TODAY. LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...COLD AIR ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED MOIST CONVECTION AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. ..EVANS.. 01/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 3 16:08:35 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 03 Jan 2006 11:08:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601031610.k03GA6T1023311@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031607 SWODY1 SPC AC 031606 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1006 AM CST TUE JAN 03 2006 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N CLM 40 E AST 40 WNW MHS 55 W SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE CRE 30 ENE FLO FAY 25 SE GSB 40 SSW HSE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE ERN PAC AND DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES OVER THE PAC COAST. PRIOR TO THIS CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC...FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS...AND INLAND FROM THE PAC NW COAST TO THE NRN ROCKIES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ACROSS SRN NC IN PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...THEN CONVECTION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM NW CA NWD ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF ORE/WA AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL LOSE AMPLITUDE WHILE MOVING INLAND LATER TODAY...AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS W OF THE COAST RANGES. ..THOMPSON.. 01/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 3 19:51:57 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 03 Jan 2006 14:51:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601031953.k03JrQFJ024854@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031951 SWODY1 SPC AC 031949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 PM CST TUE JAN 03 2006 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CLM 40 E AST 40 WNW MHS 70 SSW UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS NEWD-TRANSLATION OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS TOWARD THE WA/ORE COAST. IN ADDITION...DEEPER OCEANIC CU FIELD IS SPREADING TOWARD THE COAST WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE NEAR CEC. IT APPEARS GREATEST THREAT OF LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 02Z...THEN RIDGING AND WEAKENING CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. ..DARROW.. 01/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 4 00:50:59 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 03 Jan 2006 19:50:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601040052.k040qRd9020721@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040049 SWODY1 SPC AC 040047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST TUE JAN 03 2006 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CLM 40 E AST 15 S EUG 35 NE 4BK 25 SW CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING JUST OFF THE COAST OF ORE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING ALLOWING ANY STORM ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE CONUS. ..BROYLES.. 01/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 4 05:48:25 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 04 Jan 2006 00:48:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601040549.k045nreb025070@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040548 SWODY1 SPC AC 040546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CST TUE JAN 03 2006 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AT UPPER-LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WRN US AS A TROUGH DRIFTS EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TODAY. THE ERN US TROUGH AND NW FLOW ACROSS THE SRN STATES WILL RESULT IN A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL DRY AIR. THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE FROM RETURNING NWD MAKING CONVECTION WITH THE TROUGH UNLIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 01/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 4 12:17:55 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 04 Jan 2006 07:17:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601041219.k04CJNlE021547@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041217 SWODY1 SPC AC 041215 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0615 AM CST WED JAN 04 2006 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE U.S. TODAY WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND DIGGING SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ABSENT WITH BOTH SYSTEMS AND DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR WITHIN THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. ..EVANS.. 01/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 4 16:30:19 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 04 Jan 2006 11:30:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601041631.k04GVkNN002304@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041622 SWODY1 SPC AC 041621 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 AM CST WED JAN 04 2006 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE PAC COAST AND GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES DIGS SEWD. THE ONLY AREA OF THE CONUS WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION IS S TX. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT THIS FAR S...AND THE STRONG CAP/HIGH LFC IN 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS UNLIKELY. ..THOMPSON.. 01/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 4 19:59:48 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 04 Jan 2006 14:59:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601042001.k04K1Cj6010876@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041959 SWODY1 SPC AC 041958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 PM CST WED JAN 04 2006 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTH TX... WEAK MID-HIGH LEVEL CONVECTION PERSISTS WITHIN SWLY TRAJECTORY ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO CNTRL TX. THIS THICKER BAND OF CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH OLD CONVEYOR OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY. ASCENT WITHIN THIS PLUME IS QUITE WEAK...THUS ONLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED...AND MUCH OF THIS IS LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE LOWER TX COAST...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE TX COAST DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING. ..DARROW.. 01/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 5 00:50:06 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 04 Jan 2006 19:50:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601050051.k050pWxg012279@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050050 SWODY1 SPC AC 050048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CST WED JAN 04 2006 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AS ANTICYCLONE OFFSHORE BAJA CA...WITH MEAN RIDGE EXTENDING GENERALLY NNEWD ACROSS NV THROUGH CANADIAN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH MEAN TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO WRN GULF OF MEXICO. STRONGEST SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT ATTM IN PROFILER DATA AND MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...FCST TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS ARKLATEX REGION THROUGH END OF PERIOD. AIR MASS ACROSS CONUS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE TO SUPPORT TSTMS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD...WITH REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF AN EXCEPTION OVER LOWER TX COAST/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION. SFC DEW POINTS MID/UPPER 60S ARE ANALYZED FROM CRP SWD AND OFFSHORE...WITH WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD THROUGH AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOSS OF DIURNAL SFC HEATING AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING OF SBCIN...MODIFIED CRP RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ELEVATED MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING EACH SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK TO YIELD GEN TSTM POTENTIAL OVER LAND. ..EDWARDS.. 01/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 5 05:40:51 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 05 Jan 2006 00:40:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601050542.k055gEx8020485@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050540 SWODY1 SPC AC 050538 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 PM CST WED JAN 04 2006 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PFN 15 NNE AAF 35 SSW VLD 40 SE SAV ...CONT... 35 NNE DAB ORL 30 ESE FMY 30 S MTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE CONUS THROUGH PERIOD...FEATURING MEAN TROUGH OVER ERN STATES AND RIDGE FROM SRN CA NNEWD ACROSS CANADIAN ROCKIES. MOST PROMINENT SHORTWAVE FEATURE OVER LAND WILL MOVE FROM PRESENT POSITION OVER CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...BECOMING DECIDEDLY POSITIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES SEWD THROUGH MEAN TROUGH POSITION AND ACROSS GULF COAST STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS FCST TO SWEEP ESEWD FROM CURRENT POSITION OVER CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MS DELTA REGIONS...ACROSS NRN GULF... ATLANTIC COAST AND MOST OF FL BY 6/12Z. ...FL...SERN GA... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS ERN GULF ALONG OR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AS IT MOVES ACROSS OPTIMAL OCEAN SFC-LAYER HEAT FLUXES CHARACTERIZING LOOP CURRENT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND NEWD ACROSS NRN AND WRN FL...AND EVENTUALLY WRN KEYS LATE IN PERIOD. HOWEVER...MARGINAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH DETRIMENTAL EFFECT OF WLY PREFRONTAL WINDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER FRONTAL ASCENT...PRECLUDE SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITH ANY TSTMS THAT DO MOVE ACROSS REGION. ..EDWARDS.. 01/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 5 12:37:01 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 05 Jan 2006 07:37:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601051238.k05CcOJG015340@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051235 SWODY1 SPC AC 051233 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 AM CST THU JAN 05 2006 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EWD TOWARDS THE PAC NW COAST TODAY. THOUGH MOISTENING/LIFT AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONTS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED/SPORADIC THUNDERSTORMS. ..EVANS.. 01/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 5 16:13:59 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 05 Jan 2006 11:13:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601051615.k05GFLbQ011248@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051612 SWODY1 SPC AC 051610 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1010 AM CST THU JAN 05 2006 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS HAS EVOLVED TO AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION...AND THIS FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST WITH GRADUAL EWD PROGRESSION THROUGH TOMORROW. CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED NEAR OR JUST OFF THE NC COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING ESEWD OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY FRIDAY OVER THE GULF STREAM...BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED INLAND. ELSEWHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 38 N AND 137 W WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE WA/BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTS BY LATE TONIGHT. OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MID LEVEL COLD CORE AND IN THE BAROCLINIC BAND APPROACHING 130 W. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL TEND TO LOSE AMPLITUDE WHILE ENCOUNTERING THE RIDGE JUST INLAND FROM THE PAC COAST...AND THE THREAT FOR DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS PERIOD. ..THOMPSON.. 01/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 5 19:51:34 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 05 Jan 2006 14:51:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601051952.k05Jqtpx002234@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051950 SWODY1 SPC AC 051948 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CST THU JAN 05 2006 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THIS PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/THE SOUTHWEST. WITH COOL/STABLE AIR PREVAILING E OF THE ROCKIES AND LITTLE IF ANY DESTABILIZATION FORECAST OVER THE WRN CONUS AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 01/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 6 00:55:36 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 05 Jan 2006 19:55:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601060056.k060uvbn013682@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060054 SWODY1 SPC AC 060053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CST THU JAN 05 2006 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS CONUS...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGE FROM SRN CA THROUGH CANADIAN ROCKIES AND MEAN TROUGH FROM ERN HUDSON BAY/WRN QUE SSWWD ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED OVER SRN APPALACHIANS AND MS DELTA AREA...AND WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN ATLANTIC COAST AND NRN GULF THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT ESSENTIALLY BISECTING GULF SW-NE...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS NRN FL...ERN-MOST GA...NEWD INTO WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER NRN SC/SRN NC. ...CENTRAL CAROLINAS... MODIFIED 00Z GSO RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW LAYER OF SATURATION BENEATH VERY WEAKLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES IN 650-800 MB LAYER...LEADING TO ELEVATED MUCAPES AOB 100 J/KG. FRONTOGENETIC/CYCLOGENETIC REGIME IN THIS AREA IS AIDING LOW-MIDLEVEL ASCENT AS WELL AS WEAK DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH NERN PORTION OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THIS REGIME FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER...LACK OF MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY AND EXPECTED DECLINE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH TIME EACH INDICATE POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO MARGINAL AND ISOLATED FOR GEN TSTM OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 01/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 6 05:48:42 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 06 Jan 2006 00:48:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601060550.k065o12T025251@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060548 SWODY1 SPC AC 060546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CST THU JAN 05 2006 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N CLM 10 SSW OLM 15 SSE EUG 35 E 4BK 60 SW UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAY-1 WITH MEAN TROUGH IN ERN CONUS AND RIDGE FROM SRN CA THROUGH CANADIAN ROCKIES. COLD FRONT NOW OVER NRN FL IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP SEWD THROUGH REMAINDER PENINSULA BEFORE 6/18Z. AIRMASS OVER GREAT MAJORITY OF CONUS WILL BE TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE FOR TSTMS...WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NEAR-COASTAL PACIFIC NW. NRN PORTION OF POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY W OF CA AND ORE -- IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ASHORE AROUND 7/00Z...WITH SRN PORTION MOVING INLAND NRN CA AFTER DARK. ...WRN PORTIONS WA/ORE... MRGL PROBABILITIES FOR CATEGORICAL THUNDER OUTLOOK...WITH TSTM EVENTS BEING ISOLATED AND EPISODIC THROUGH MIDDLE-LATE PERIOD. UNLIKE SPECTRAL/NGM LI...ETA LI GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER THIS AREA...HOWEVER ANIMATIONS OF BOTH ETA AND ETA-KF SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS RESULT IS AN ARTIFACT OF THE MODELED BUOYANT LAYERS AND HOW THEY EVOLVE. MOST UNSTABLE LIFTED PARCELS BETWEEN ABOUT 18-22Z ARE ROOTED AROUND 650 MB AND GENERATE MRGL MUCAPES UNDER 100 J/KG WITH LI AROUND -1...BUT THIS IS NOT EVIDENT IN STANDARD PLANAR CAPE/LI GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF ITS MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL PARCEL SELECTION. THEN AS LOWER-MIDLEVEL ASCENT PASSES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AROUND 7/00Z. CONVECTIVE PARCEL BASES DROP QUICKLY TO AROUND 900 MB...WITH TOPS BELOW 500 MB SAMPLING LEVEL FOR LI FIELDS. THIS REGIME SHOULD SHIFT SWD THROUGH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AND NEARLY SATURATED LOW LEVEL WAA PROFILES GENERATING WEAK CAPE. ..EDWARDS.. 01/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 6 12:47:24 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 06 Jan 2006 07:47:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601061248.k06Cmgw5024986@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061246 SWODY1 SPC AC 061245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 AM CST FRI JAN 06 2006 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N CLM 10 SSW OLM 15 SSE EUG 35 E 4BK 60 SW UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE NATION...WITH STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. A RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS EVERYWHERE BUT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY. ...COASTAL WA/ORE/NORTHERN CA... STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH UPPER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT UNUSUALLY COLD...OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE COAST AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/LIFT FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. ..HART.. 01/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 6 16:00:25 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 06 Jan 2006 11:00:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601061601.k06G1ifd028273@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061556 SWODY1 SPC AC 061554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0954 AM CST FRI JAN 06 2006 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... PROGRESSION AND GRADUAL DE AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN OVER CONUS IS UNDERWAY. STRONG MOIST SWLY FLOW PAC NW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND VEER TODAY. WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY INITIALLY AND A FURTHER WEAKENING OF LAPSE RATES ANY THUNDER THREAT NOW APPEARS VERY LOW. THUS HAVE REMOVED THE EARLIER FORECASTED AREA. REMAINDER OF U.S. COVERED BY AN AIR MASS HOSTILE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ..HALES.. 01/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 6 19:47:55 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 06 Jan 2006 14:47:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601061949.k06JnBLA011114@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061946 SWODY1 SPC AC 061944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CST FRI JAN 06 2006 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE/DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THIS PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE W COAST WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PAC NW/NRN CA LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECIPITATION NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE PAC NW. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...AND LIMITED COOLING ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MORE THAN MEAGER DESTABILIZATION. THUS...OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ..GOSS.. 01/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 7 01:01:27 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 06 Jan 2006 20:01:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601070102.k0712iFk000997@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070101 SWODY1 SPC AC 070059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CST FRI JAN 06 2006 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER CONUS WITH MEAN TROUGH IN ERN STATES AND RIDGE FROM NWRN MEX NWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES. STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH NOW OVER NERN GULF AND SRN ATLANTIC COAST REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWEEPING FARTHER OFFSHORE. DRY/STABLE POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS WILL MITIGATE TSTM THREAT OVER MOST OF CONUS. ...W COAST... SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE CA...ROUGHLY ALONG 128W-129W AS OF 7/00Z. EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE ONSHORE DURING 7/09Z-7/12Z TIME FRAME...PRECEDED THIS EVENING BY BAROCLINIC LEAF SIGNATURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WAA/PRECIP PLUME. VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AMIDST POCKETS OF FEEBLE LOW-MIDLEVEL BUOYANCY...WITH MUCAPES UNDER 100 J/KG BOTH IN WAA REGIME AND BENEATH MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. ..EDWARDS.. 01/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 7 05:52:14 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 07 Jan 2006 00:52:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601070553.k075rU6I011911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070551 SWODY1 SPC AC 070549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST FRI JAN 06 2006 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI EAT ALW BKE BNO 70 S RDM EUG 35 SW ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO FALL ACROSS MOST OF WRN CONUS AS SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES...THOUGH MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER ERN STATES THROUGH PERIOD. NET RESULT SHOULD BE BROAD FETCH OF WNWLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF CONUS...STREAMLINES AND ISOHYPSES BENT SOMEWHAT BY SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING EWD ACROSS GREAT PLAINS AND BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE PACIFIC NW. LATTER PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF 135-142W...W OF BC/WA/ORE -- IS FCST TO REMAIN NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SRN PORTION MOVES ACROSS COASTAL WA/ORE FROM MIDAFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHORT-RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FROM 07/00Z AND MOST 06/21Z SPECTRAL/ETA/WRF MEMBERS OF SREF SUITE ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL TIMING/PATH OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH DAY-1...CONSIDERING ITS LOCATION IN RELATIVE OBSERVATIONAL DATA VOID. ...WA/ORE... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED -- MAINLY IN AN AFTERNOON/EVENING EPISODE CORRESPONDING TO PEAK IN LOW-MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY INDUCED BY SEVERAL DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS. COMBINATION OF DPVA ALOFT AND ASCENT UNDER LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET MAX WILL SHIFT INLAND JUST AHEAD OF TROUGH. ON IR IMAGERY...DEEP CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ATTM FROM 44W-46W WITHIN BAROCLINIC CLOUD BAND...AND SHALLOW BUT GLACIATED CELLULAR/MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY EXISTS FARTHER W BEHIND FRONT AND BENEATH LIKELY MIDLEVEL THERMAL MIN. RELATED COOLING WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL BUOYANCY OVER THUNDER OUTLOOK AREA...FROM WNW-ESE WITH TIME. INLAND...PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING ALSO WILL CONTRIBUTE SLIGHTLY TO DESTABILIZATION. MODIFIED ETA-KF SOUNDINGS INDICATE ESSENTIALLY UNINHIBITED MUCAPES 200-300 J/KG MUCAPES -- SFC-BASED OR NEARLY SO -- SPREADING INLAND THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CONCORDANCE WITH STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. ..EDWARDS.. 01/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 7 12:31:01 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 07 Jan 2006 07:31:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601071232.k07CWHug031809@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071230 SWODY1 SPC AC 071228 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 AM CST SAT JAN 07 2006 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 50 NE SEA 30 WSW DLS 65 SSE EUG 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WA/ORE COAST... PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...WITH ONE TROUGH MOVING ASHORE THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MUCH COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LAPSE RATES INTO PARTS OF WA/ORE ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ELSEWHERE...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY. ..HART.. 01/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 7 15:55:10 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 07 Jan 2006 10:55:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601071556.k07FuOcv008487@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071553 SWODY1 SPC AC 071551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0951 AM CST SAT JAN 07 2006 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 55 ENE SEA 15 WSW DLS 30 NE MFR 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... S/WV TROUGH HAS MOVED INLAND PAC NW THIS MORNING AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLDER TROUGH BY THIS EVENING. THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM HAS MOVED TO AROUND 128W AT 15Z AND FORECASTED TO REACH THE OR/SWRN WA COAST BY 21Z. WITH 850-500MB LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO NEAR 8C/KM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES INLAND...SCATTERED CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER AND W OF CASCADES. WITH FREEZING LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 3K FT MSL SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ..HALES.. 01/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 7 20:00:24 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 07 Jan 2006 15:00:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601072001.k07K1a8V028116@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071959 SWODY1 SPC AC 071957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CST SAT JAN 07 2006 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE BLI 35 N DLS 25 SW DLS 30 WSW RDM 60 N LMT 40 SW ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LESS AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH AREAS E OF THE ROCKIES REMAINING TOO DRY/STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUNDER THREAT OVER THE CONUS THIS PERIOD WILL BE CONFINED TO THE PAC NW...AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THIS REGION. ...PAC NW... SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW JUST OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING ONSHORE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-30 TO -32 C AT MID LEVELS/ NOW NEARING THE COAST. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OFFSHORE WITHIN COLD POOL ALOFT...AND EXPECT LIGHTING ACTIVITY TO INCREASE ALONG THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE OLYMPICS/CASCADES/COASTAL RANGES AS WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH COOLING ALOFT. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS WRN WA/WRN OREGON OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES INLAND...THOUGH THREAT FOR A FEW STRAY STRIKES WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS ID AND VICINITY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 01/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 8 00:57:45 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 07 Jan 2006 19:57:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601080058.k080wwnQ026901@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080057 SWODY1 SPC AC 080055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST SAT JAN 07 2006 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM OLM DLS RDM 60 N LMT 50 NW 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO FILL ACROSS MOST OF WRN CONUS AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS AREA IN GENERAL WNWLY FLOW REGIME. MOST PROMINENT OF THESE -- NOW MOVING INLAND WA/ORE BASED ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY -- IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AS IT ASSUMES INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT OVER INLAND PACIFIC NW. AT SFC...DEEP CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH BROAD AREA OF ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WAA FROM WRN GULF COAST REGION INTO CORN BELT AND UPPER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...AIR MASS E OF ROCKIES WILL REMAIN TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE FOR TSTMS. ...PACIFIC NW... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN REGION OF STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT...NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS WRN ORE AND ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED CB EXTENDING FARTHER N ACROSS WA COASTAL/OFFSHORE WATERS ALSO. ALTHOUGH LATER ACTIVITY HAS NOT PRODUCED CG LIGHTNING DETECTIONS AS OF THIS WRITING...FAVORABLE LOW-MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY IS EVIDENT FOR THUNDER WITH ABOUT 200 J/KG MUCAPE IN 00Z UIL SOUNDING. VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND ACROSS ERN PORTIONS WA/ORE AND INTERIOR NRN CA TONIGHT...BUT PROBABILITIES DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT SUCH THAT GEN TSTM FCST IS NOT NECESSARY. ..EDWARDS.. 01/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 8 05:29:47 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 08 Jan 2006 00:29:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601080530.k085UvrF024975@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080528 SWODY1 SPC AC 080527 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 PM CST SAT JAN 07 2006 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FCST THROUGH DAY-1. MAIN FEATURE WILL BE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ANOTHER MOVING ESEWD OVER INLAND PACIFIC NW. LATTER SHOULD DIG SEWD TOWARD CO BY 9/12Z. BY THEN...IT SHOULD BE PHASING WITH TRAILING PORTION OF FIRST PERTURBATION TO RESULT IN POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES WSWWD TO CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT SFC...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF LEADING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RESULT SHOULD BE DEEP LOW LOCATED INVOF MO/NEB BORDER BY 8/12Z...WHICH WILL OCCLUDE AND FILL AS IT EJECTS NEWD TOWARD SERN ONT/WRN NY THROUGH PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY...REACHING FROM CYCLONE SWWD ACROSS AR AND SW TX BY 9/12Z. LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ACROSS PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL PLAIN WILL MOISTEN AND DESTABILIZE SOMEWHAT -- FROM W-E -- AS EARLY STAGE RETURN FLOW PROCESS PROCEEDS THROUGH PERIOD. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WAA ALREADY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS WRN GULF COAST STATES NWD INTO CENTRAL PLAINS AND MS VALLEY...IN RESPONSE TO CENTRAL PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS. HOWEVER..LACK OF MORE MATURE MODIFICATION OF MARINE AIR MASS REACHING LAND...AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL FORCING IMPINGING ON MOISTENING SECTOR UNTIL AFTER 9/12Z...INDICATE GEN THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE TOO MINIMAL FOR OUTLOOK UNTIL DAY-2 PERIOD. ..EDWARDS.. 01/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 8 12:59:45 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 08 Jan 2006 07:59:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601081300.k08D0vJW018496@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081258 SWODY1 SPC AC 081257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 AM CST SUN JAN 08 2006 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... FAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NATION TODAY WILL EVOLVE INTO BROAD TROUGH BY MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UNITED STATES TODAY. ..HART.. 01/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 8 16:08:14 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 08 Jan 2006 11:08:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601081609.k08G9OvM022700@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081606 SWODY1 SPC AC 081604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1004 AM CST SUN JAN 08 2006 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LARGE SURFACE LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS MID MS THRU OH VALLEYS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS. WITH SUCH A LIMITED RETURN FLOW OFF GULF OF MEXICO...MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING TO SUPPORT CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. A STRONG VORT MAX CURRENTLY SRN ID WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM ACCOMPANIED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM WRN WY INTO NRN CO MTNS TODAY. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION AHEAD OF VORT MAX...THE GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY PRECLUDES FORECASTING A THUNDER AREA. ..HALES.. 01/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 8 19:44:31 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 08 Jan 2006 14:44:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601081945.k08JjdPL026660@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081944 SWODY1 SPC AC 081942 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CST SUN JAN 08 2006 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX/LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES -- WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT A LARGE AREA OF THE CONUS FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THOUGH AIRMASS REMAINS GENERALLY DRY/STABLE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT /H5 TEMPS -30 TO -32 C/ AND ASSOCIATED STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN TOWARD CO/WY ATTM. THOUGH A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THIS AREA WITHIN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING ATTM...OVERALL THUNDER THREAT REMAINS LOW. ..GOSS.. 01/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 9 00:39:06 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 08 Jan 2006 19:39:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601090040.k090eEjt005272@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090037 SWODY1 SPC AC 090036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CST SUN JAN 08 2006 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... LARGELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG CNTRL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH /MINUS 32C AT H5/ BEGINS TO DIG SEWD TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS BEGINNING TO INCREASE BENEATH A STOUT CAP ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES. THOUGH A WEAKER LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-MS VLY OVERNIGHT...LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD NOT MOISTEN/COOL THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY FOR A TSTM THREAT. OTHERWISE...LEADING EDGE OF STRONG UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CNTRL ROCKIES IMPULSE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. ISOLD TSTMS HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER SWRN NEB. AS THE DISTURBANCE DIGS SEWD...ISOLD TSTMS MAY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF ERN CO/NWRN KS...PRIMARILY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...AIR MASS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT TSTMS OVERNIGHT. ..RACY.. 01/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 9 05:43:45 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 09 Jan 2006 00:43:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601090544.k095irxb016440@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090542 SWODY1 SPC AC 090541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 PM CST SUN JAN 08 2006 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E BRO 20 SE NIR 25 ENE AUS 25 SSE DUA 20 SW RKR 40 W CHA 15 NE GAD 15 NE 0A8 40 ENE JAN 20 NNE HEZ 40 ESE POE 60 S LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY. AS THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING THE MIDWEST RAPIDLY TRANSLATES INTO THE NERN STATES EARLY TODAY...A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL GET LEFT BEHIND...CLOSING OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY TURN E TOWARD THE LWR MS VLY LATE MON NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM NRN STREAM IMPULSE DROPS TOWARD THE PAC NW. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDWEST UPPER DISTURBANCE...WILL SETTLE SWD ACROSS THE TN VLY AND SRN PLAINS MONDAY. ERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION BY MONDAY AFTN. AS THIS LOW TRACKS EWD TOWARD NRN LA BY 12Z TUE...WRN PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SEWD OFF THE TX COAST. ...ERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AREA... BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY MONDAY. BY AFTN...SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREE F INLAND TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE UPPER TX/LA COASTS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHERE HEATING IS THE STRONGEST. BUT... MODEST CAP NOTED IN 00Z/10 SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST...PRECLUDING SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTN WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR ACROSS THE LWR TN VLY...AND MON NIGHT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION WHERE MID-LEVEL PROFILES COOL AND UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SPREAD SEWD. TSTMS WILL THEN DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE DEEP S AND SEWD ACROSS ERN TX AND WRN/NRN LA BY EARLY TUE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT MUCAPES WILL REMAIN WEAK AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR MARGINAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS. ..RACY.. 01/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 9 12:27:23 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 09 Jan 2006 07:27:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601091228.k09CSSLL005604@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091226 SWODY1 SPC AC 091224 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 AM CST MON JAN 09 2006 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE 45 ESE COT 25 ESE ACT 25 SSE DUA 20 SW RKR 40 W CHA 15 NE GAD 15 NE 0A8 40 ENE JAN 20 NNE HEZ 40 ESE POE 60 S LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX AND LOWER MS VALLEY... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CO. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO TX/LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW WARM/RELATIVELY MOIST GULF AIR MASS NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WILL EXIST FROM SOUTHERN AR/NORTHERN MS SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER EAST TX AND WESTERN LA AS UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. IT APPEARS THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF NORTHERN LA/SOUTHERN AR AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW WHERE ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES MAY RESULT IN SUPERCELL STORMS AND A SMALL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY. ..HART.. 01/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 9 16:11:58 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 09 Jan 2006 11:11:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601091613.k09GD44K001724@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091607 SWODY1 SPC AC 091605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1005 AM CST MON JAN 09 2006 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE LFK 30 NW LFK TYR 30 SW DEQ 35 SW HOT 40 SW PBF 25 NW MLU 40 NE IER 50 ENE LFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE 45 ESE COT 25 ESE ACT 25 SSE DUA 20 SW RKR 40 W CHA 15 NE GAD 15 NE 0A8 40 ENE JAN 20 NNE HEZ 40 ESE POE 60 S LCH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF NERN TX...SWRN AR AND NRN LA... ...ARKLATEX... STRONG UPPER TROUGH SRN CO/NERN NM CONTINUES TO MOVE ESEWD AND MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION AS IT CROSSES OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES FROM TN VLY WSWWD ACROSS SRN AR AND THEN THRU THE DFW AREA TO SRN NM. PORTION OF FRONT E OF DFW WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY AS A SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS NERN TX IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. 20-25KT LOW LEVEL SSWLY FLOW ACROSS TX AHEAD OF FRONT IS RETURNING A MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO NEAR 60F INLAND ACROSS SERN TX/LA THIS AFTERNOON. AN ELEVATED MIX LAYER WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM HAS SPREAD EWD ACROSS TX AND ALONG WITH GOOD SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE. AS THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING...SURFACE LOW NERN TX WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO SRN AR. LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESPOND AND INCREASE TO 30-40KT WHICH COUPLED WITH THE 60-70KT MID LEVEL JET MAX MOVING EWD ALG N TX/SRN OK BORDER WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. IT NOW APPEARS LIKE MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ARKLATEX REGION. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND UPWARD MOTION WITH APPROACHING TROUGH THERE IS A SUFFICIENT THREAT OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL TO UPGRADE THIS AREA TO A SLIGHT RISK. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN BOTH NUMBER AND INTENSITY DURING THE EVENING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS STORMS BECOME PRIMARILY ELEVATED. ..HALES.. 01/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 9 19:24:55 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 09 Jan 2006 14:24:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601091926.k09JQ2JS024836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091924 SWODY1 SPC AC 091921 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 PM CST MON JAN 09 2006 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE UTS CLL CRS PRX HOT PBF LLQ MLU 30 SE UTS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE BRO SAT ACT DUA FLP ARG BNA CSV RMG 15 SSE ANB SEM PIB 10 SSW BTR 60 S 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.... MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH EAST TEXAS IS WARMING THROUGH THE 70S. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...BUT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EMANATING FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU IS PROVIDING SUBSTANTIAL CAP. INHIBITION STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO WEAKEN...AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A SLOWLY DEEPENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER OKLAHOMA...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS BY THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT/DRY LINE TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM LOW WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS FORCING SPREADS THROUGH MOIST AXIS. WEAK IMPULSE IN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM...NOW LIFTING INTO/THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...COULD ENHANCE FORCING IN WARM SECTOR OF LOW ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TOWARD 10/03-06Z. BASED NEAR SURFACE...POSSIBLY JUST ABOVE SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER...WITH CAPE FOR MOIST PARCELS UP TO 1000 J/KG... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS SHEAR PROFILES BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...AS A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATES AROUND SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. LARGE HAIL SEEMS LIKELY TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL IN STRONGEST STORMS...BUT A VERY ISOLATED DOWNBURST OR TWO COULD OCCUR IN INITIAL STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SPORADIC STRONG GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER NEAR LOW-LEVEL JET LATER THIS EVENING...AS ACTIVITY SPREADS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ..KERR.. 01/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 10 00:54:09 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 09 Jan 2006 19:54:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601100055.k0A0tCmf021671@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100052 SWODY1 SPC AC 100051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CST MON JAN 09 2006 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LFK 45 NW UTS 25 NNE CRS PRX 15 NNW DEQ 40 SSW HOT 15 W ELD 20 ESE SHV LFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E BRO 15 ENE SAT ACT 30 S MLC 20 ENE FSM 25 NE BVX 65 SSW CKV 40 SE BNA 10 NW RMG 25 SW ANB 15 NNE MEI 30 WSW JAN 25 S ESF 45 SSW LCH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX... ...ARKLATEX... UPPER LOW HAS BEGUN TO TURN MORE ELY THIS EVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OK/N TX OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WAS FORMING EAST OF DALLAS...ALONG A FRONT THAT WAS SITUATED FROM NRN MS-SRN AR-CNTRL TX. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO NRN LA OVERNIGHT AS THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS SERN TX BY 12Z. WINDS WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL ACCELERATE THIS EVENING AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD. RESULTANT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION/WEAKENING OF CINH ALONG/E OF THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS ERN TX AND BANDS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE THIS EVENING FROM ERN TX INTO SRN AR AND NWRN LA. TSTMS WILL HAVE THE PROPENSITY TO BE ROOTED ABOVE THE DEEPENING COLD DOME ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF TSTMS BECOMING SURFACE BASED OVER PARTS OF ECNTRL TX...NWRN LA AND SCNTRL AR. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES AND A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY.. 01/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 10 05:30:37 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 10 Jan 2006 00:30:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601100531.k0A5VdC2000315@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100529 SWODY1 SPC AC 100527 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 PM CST MON JAN 09 2006 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BLI 10 SW OLM 50 NNW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE CRP 20 SSE GGG 15 N TXK 15 E FSM GMJ 50 NNE JLN 20 E SZL 20 SW UIN 15 NNE SPI DNV 10 W MIE 35 ESE DAY 40 NW HTS 10 E LOZ 25 SW CHA 20 SSW SEM 30 SSE PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS HAS REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL BEGIN EJECTING ENEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO THE MIDWEST BY LATE TUE NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS AR TUE MORNING...THEN DEVELOP NEWD TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z WED. AS A RESULT...THE E-W ORIENTED FRONT ACROSS THE TN VLY WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE MIDWEST WHILE A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW SWEEPS EWD ACROSS THE TN VLY AND THE DEEP S THROUGH EARLY WED. ...MID-SOUTH/TN VLY... MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPPER LOW. QUALITY OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE TEMPERED BY ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER PARCELS WHOSE SOURCE REGION RESIDES BENEATH A SERN STATES SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. NONETHELESS...STRONG DCVA AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD NEWD FROM THE ARKLATEX EARLY TUE THEN ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/TN VLY TUE AFTN/EVE. THIS ENHANCED UVV WILL INTERCEPT NRN EXTENTS OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY SUPPORTING A TSTM THREAT. THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS TSTMS ONGOING EARLY ON TUE ACROSS THE OZARKS SWD INTO ERN TX...A COUPLE OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AS THE DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE UNSTABLE TUE AFTN/EVE...TSTMS MAY INTENSIFY NEAR THE MS RVR FROM THE BOOTHEEL OF MO SWD INTO THE MS DELTA AS SRN EXTENTS OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/COLD FRONT SHIFT ENEWD. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE TN/LWR OH VLYS LATER IN THE EVENING. GIVEN BACKING MEAN LAYER FLOW...TSTMS WILL MAINLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND ISOLD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS A DAMAGING WIND GUST. BUT...THE ANTICIPATED WEAK THERMAL BUOYANCY SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS. ..RACY.. 01/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 10 12:44:35 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 10 Jan 2006 07:44:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601101245.k0ACjcWk006997@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101243 SWODY1 SPC AC 101242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BLI 10 SW OLM 50 NNW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE GLS 10 NNE IER 15 E LIT 35 SSE HRO 10 WSW UMN 50 SSW SZL 35 NE SZL 20 SW UIN 15 NNE SPI DNV 10 W MIE 35 ESE DAY 40 NW HTS 10 E LOZ 25 SW CHA GZH 40 SSE PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID/LOWER MS VALLEY... UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OK WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY...WHILE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF AR/LA/MS HAS ONLY BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE DUE TO LIMITED RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 6OS WILL REMAIN OVER THIS REGION...SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF POCKETS OF MUCAPE AS HIGH AS 500 J/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CORES. OVERALL...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY. ...WA COAST... WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH AROUND 143W. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATER TONIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGE. ..HART.. 01/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 10 16:54:05 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 10 Jan 2006 11:54:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601101655.k0AGt9ke023475@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101609 SWODY1 SPC AC 101607 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1007 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BLI 10 SW OLM 50 NNW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S LCH 30 NNE ESF 55 WSW MEM 10 E POF 10 SSW TBN 35 ENE SZL 40 NNW COU 20 SW UIN 15 NNE SPI DNV 10 W MIE 35 ESE DAY 40 NW HTS 10 E LOZ 25 SW CHA GZH 40 SSE PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID/LOWER MS VALLEY... SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EXITING NERN OK WILL CONTINUE NEWD THRU LOWER OH VALLEY TONIGHT. COLD FRONT FROM LOW EXTENDS SWD THRU ERN AR AND LA WITH ONLY LIMITED RETURN OF GULF AIR MASS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT AMOUNT OF HEATING IN WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON SO THAT THE BEST MLCAPES SHOULD RISE TO NO HIGHER THAN 500 J/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WRN TN INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. SHEAR SUFFICIENTLY STRONG AND FREEZING LEVEL FAVORABLY LOW TO PROMOTE A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT IN STRONGER CORES. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECASTED. ...WA COAST... NEXT IN SERIES OF FAST MOVING TROUGHS CURRENTLY AROUND 140W WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS IT MOVES ONSHORE WRN WA. ..HALES.. 01/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 10 19:32:45 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 10 Jan 2006 14:32:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601101933.k0AJXkwv008333@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101931 SWODY1 SPC AC 101930 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BLI 10 SW OLM 50 NNW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S LCH 30 NNE ESF 55 WSW MEM POF 30 W FAM 25 ENE COU 40 SSE IRK 35 W MLI MKE MKG FNT CAK PKB 35 ESE JKL RMG 20 SSE AUO 40 SSW AAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS... AT THE MOMENT...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE OZARKS IS GENERALLY CUT-OFF FROM THE PRIMARY BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...AT LEAST TEMPORARY PHASING OF A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM IS ONGOING...AND THE TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS...AND THE EVENTUAL INCREASING INFLUENCE OF AN UPSTREAM NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK...IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT THE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD MIGRATION OF A DEEPENING...BUT STILL RELATIVELY WEAK...SURFACE LOW OUT OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SPORADIC WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG FORCING NORTHEAST OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST HAS INHIBITED MORE SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW...A NARROW TONGUE OF MOISTURE EXISTS AHEAD OF FRONT. THIS IS CHARACTERIZED BY 55F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS AND...IN CONJUNCTION WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION...IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH RISK OF SMALL HAIL/ GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE CRITERIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN MARGINAL AT BEST. ...EASTERN GULF COAST... OTHERWISE...MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN/SUBTROPICAL STREAM MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...THE BULK OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. HOWEVER... THE FAR NORTHERN FLANK OF ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ..KERR.. 01/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 11 00:31:43 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 10 Jan 2006 19:31:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601110032.k0B0Whe0015944@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110030 SWODY1 SPC AC 110028 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S JAN 25 ESE GWO 50 NNE TUP 40 SW CKV 30 SSE OWB 50 WNW SDF 10 WNW BMG 30 NE HUF 25 WNW LAF 10 WSW VPZ 15 E BEH 10 N JXN 20 SSE MTC 35 NNE CLE CAK 20 N ZZV 40 SW CMH 30 ESE LUK 35 NW LOZ 10 NW CSV 40 W CHA 15 SSW 0A8 25 S JAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MIDWEST SWD INTO TN VLY... UPPER LOW OVER THE OZARKS WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING EWD THROUGH THE OH/TN VLYS AND DEEP S. STRONGEST PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS IND/OH AND CNTRL KY OVERNIGHT. ORGANIZED SHORT LINE SEGMENT THAT BOWED AND PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS ACROSS WRN KY EARLIER HAS WEAKENED. BUOYANCY ACROSS THE MIDWEST IS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED TSTMS TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES LIKELY FAVORING AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TRACK OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW. OTHERWISE...A BAND OF CONVECTION PERSISTS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE DEEP S/TN VLY THIS EVENING. A LOW PROBABILITY OF TSTMS WILL EXIST IN A NARROW AXIS THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS MIDDLE TN SWD INTO NWRN AL/NERN MS. BUT...THETA-E AXIS HAS BEEN PINCHED-OFF TO THE S AS LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE EMANATING FROM BENEATH THE SERN STATES ANTICYCLONE. AS A RESULT... THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR VERY FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS LASTING BEYOND EARLY EVENING. ..RACY.. 01/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 11 05:41:19 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 11 Jan 2006 00:41:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601110542.k0B5gI3X002345@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110540 SWODY1 SPC AC 110538 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ART 15 N RUT 75 SSW BHB ...CONT... 60 SSE EWN FLO 35 NW CAE 35 SW HSS 10 SW LOZ 45 SE LUK 35 SE DAY 35 ESE TOL 55 E MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BLI 50 SSE OLM EUG OTH 45 WSW OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE POLAR WLYS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ON WED. AN AMPLIFYING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ASHORE THE PAC NW WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY WED NIGHT. DOWNSTREAM...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OH VLY WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY INTO NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY THU AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE PRIMARY WLYS AGAIN. ...NERN STATES... STRONGEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OH VLY UPPER LOW WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE MID/UPPER OH VLY AND INTO THE MIDDLE ATLC STATES THROUGH WED AFTN...THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. THOUGH MSTR RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO/WRN ATLC WILL BE MINIMAL...STRONG UVV AND INJECTION OF STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ATOP SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BANDS OF CONVECTION. SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE APT TO EVOLVE FROM ALONG/W OF THE APPALACHIAN CREST...THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NRN/MID-ATLC COASTAL AREAS LATE WED/WED NIGHT. MEAN FLOW REGIME WILL BE QUITE STRONG...BUT PRESENCE OF A NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PRECLUDE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ...PAC NW... MINUS 30 DEGREE C H5 TEMPERATURES SPREADING INLAND ATOP A MOIST CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SPORADIC TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PAC NW. MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WED AFTN...LESSENING THE RISK OF TSTMS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. ..RACY.. 01/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 11 12:48:19 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 11 Jan 2006 07:48:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601111249.k0BCnJHj007411@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111247 SWODY1 SPC AC 111245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 AM CST WED JAN 11 2006 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ART 15 N RUT 75 SSW BHB ...CONT... 20 NE JAX 50 NW AYS 20 S SPA 10 NNE TRI 20 NNE JKL 45 SE LUK 35 SE DAY 35 ESE TOL 55 E MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BLI 50 SSE OLM EUG OTH 45 WSW OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...EASTERN STATES... UPPER LOW OVER IL/IND WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...WITH MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND CAROLINAS. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ONLY MARGINALLY MOIST/UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING MAY HELP DESTABILIZE PARTS OF NC/VA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM EASTERN GA/SC ALL THE WAY INTO NY AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE RATHER STRONG WIND FIELDS...LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ...WA COAST... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND AND AWAY FROM REGION THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. ..HART.. 01/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 11 16:06:22 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 11 Jan 2006 11:06:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601111607.k0BG7LXY018488@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111604 SWODY1 SPC AC 111602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1002 AM CST WED JAN 11 2006 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE ROC 20 E GFL 75 SSW BHB ...CONT... 20 NE JAX VDI 35 SE SPA 20 ENE TRI 20 N CRW 35 NNE PKB 20 SE CAK 25 NW YNG 35 W ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BLI 55 NNE PDX 35 SE EUG OTH 45 WSW OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... UPPER LOW OVER OH VALLEY THIS AM WILL LIFT NEWD AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH...TRACKING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM ERN OH VALLEY SWD TO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO DELINEATES THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A MARGINAL THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SPOTTY HEATING CAROLINAS INTO VA E OF FRONT WILL DEVELOP POCKETS OF INSTABILITY CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING THE BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS. CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF CASCADES IN PAC NW WILL END DURING AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. ..HALES.. 01/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 11 19:29:46 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 11 Jan 2006 14:29:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601111930.k0BJUf6u016022@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111928 SWODY1 SPC AC 111927 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 PM CST WED JAN 11 2006 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW PNS MCN 30 SE AHN AND 20 WNW AVL 15 W BLF 10 NW CRW HLG 15 WNW ERI ...CONT... 30 NW ART ALB 50 E PSM ...CONT... 30 E SGJ 65 SSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BLI 55 NNE PDX 25 S PDX 25 NNW EUG 30 W ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...EASTERN STATES... CLOSED LOW IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE...AND TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY MERGE BACK INTO PRIMARY BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES...EXTENDING ACROSS QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LINGERING TROUGHING IN SUBTROPICAL STREAM MAY LAG A BIT...BUT STILL PROGRESS OFF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12/12Z. AHEAD OF TROUGH AXES...EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WARM LOWER/MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS ALL BUT THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. LIMITED MOISTURE INFLUX OFF THE GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC IS MINIMIZING SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ON TAIL END OF POLAR TROUGH. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...WHERE NEAR SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STRONG SHEAR COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH HAIL/WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE CRITERIA. ELSEWHERE...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AS STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF WEAKENING LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...AS THIS FORCING SPREADS ACROSS NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ABOVE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION... FROM COASTAL NEW JERSEY THROUGH LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... LINGERING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AS AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM PATTERN SUPPORTS BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST. ..KERR.. 01/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 12 00:44:34 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 11 Jan 2006 19:44:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601120045.k0C0jVa0027041@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120043 SWODY1 SPC AC 120042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CST WED JAN 11 2006 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE HSE 10 W EWN 10 NNE FAY 25 SSW DAN 25 SSE LYH 25 ENE CHO 10 N MRB 10 NNE AOO 45 ESE BFD 15 WSW ITH 35 NW ALB 10 SE LCI 35 ESE PWM 60 ESE PWM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID ATLANTIC... CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING ACROSS AREAS OF SERN VA AND NERN NC THIS EVENING AS STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WRN PA/NY UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER...A DEEP LAYER OF MARITIME MOISTURE REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AHEAD OF A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT/WEAKENING FRONT. LIFT ALONG THIS ADVANCING BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...COULD STILL PROVOKE A FEW TSTMS WITH MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE NRN OUTER BANKS AND VA CAPES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ...NORTHEAST... STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM PA/NY TO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. LIFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE HAVE ALREADY RESULTED IN A FEW TSTMS ACROSS PA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN EXTENSIVE MOIST PLUME AND EVOLVING BAROCLINIC CLOUD BAND INDICATIVE OF STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT EXIST AHEAD OF THE MAIN IMPULSE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WAS INDICATED IN EVENING SOUNDINGS FROM WAL AND OKX AND WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION OF STRONGEST ASCENT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE DC-NY-BOS CORRIDOR TONIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 01/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 12 05:14:51 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 00:14:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601120516.k0C5Gjs6019981@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120514 SWODY1 SPC AC 120513 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 PM CST WED JAN 11 2006 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MCB 40 N LFT 30 WNW LCH 25 SSW LFK 20 NE TYR 35 E DEQ 30 WSW BVX 25 SW POF 20 NNE DYR 20 SE MKL 20 NNE TUP 30 NNW MCB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE BPT 25 NW HOU 10 WNW CLL 15 SW CRS 25 WSW PRX 20 SSE FSM 35 W STL 30 WNW MIE 20 SSW DAY 35 WNW LOZ 10 N CHA 20 NE 0A8 60 W GZH 30 SE ASD 65 S HUM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH A SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE CURRENTLY CROSSING BAJA TO PRODUCE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH SYSTEM EVOLVES...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH TODAY...BEFORE SPREADING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. ...ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS VALLEY... GRADUAL AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR NNEWD FROM THE TX COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SSWLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND TRANSPORTS 55-60F DEWPOINTS TO NWRN LA AND SWRN AR BY THIS EVENING. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS WILL BE RESTRICTED THROUGH THE DAY BY LIMITED FORCING AND STRONG CAP. AFTER DARK...STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL EROSION OF THE CAPPING LAYER AND SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY FROM TXK NEWD TO BOOTHEEL OF MO. BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER AND BE FURTHER UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT WITH TIME. HOWEVER...WITH LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500MB LAYER APPROACHING 8 C/KM DUE TO STRONG COOLING ALOFT...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL. STRONG LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE THAT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. STORMS/UPDRAFTS ALONG THE SRN END OF THE LINE MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT BECOMING NEAR SURFACE-BASED GIVEN PROXIMITY TO WARMER AIR MASS AND GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES EVOLVING WITHIN THIS PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE...PERHAPS FROM SRN AR/NRN LA TO WRN MS...WOULD HAVE A GREATER CHANCE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 01/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 12 12:44:35 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 07:44:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601121246.k0CCkR3l014874@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121244 SWODY1 SPC AC 121242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW HEZ 25 SE IER 45 ENE LFK 35 NNW GGG 15 WNW DEQ 25 WSW RUE 20 NNW BVX 30 NE JBR 25 E MEM 25 SW GWO 35 NNW HEZ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE BPT 25 NW HOU 10 WNW CLL 15 SW CRS 25 WSW PRX 10 SW FSM 30 N FAM 20 NNW BMG 40 NNW LEX 60 SW LEX 25 NNE HSV 20 WNW SEM 25 N MOB 30 SE ASD 65 S HUM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER UT/CO WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM EASTERN TX/OK ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. GULF MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THIS REGION...WITH 50S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL AR SOUTHWARD BY 00Z. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING FROM WESTERN AR INTO NORTHEAST TX AS SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND A CAPPING INVERSION THAT MAY INITIALLY LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND RATHER COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY PROMOTE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS AFTER DARK OVER PARTS OF AR. LINEAR NATURE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LA INTO WESTERN MS. ..HART.. 01/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 12 16:41:28 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 11:41:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601121643.k0CGhg58023943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121629 SWODY1 SPC AC 121627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW MCB 30 SE POE 10 ESE UTS 35 SSE PRX 35 NNW DEQ 25 WSW RUE 20 NNW BVX 30 NE JBR 20 N UOX 25 SW PIB 15 SW MCB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S LBX 60 S CLL 10 WNW CLL 15 SW CRS GYI GMJ 30 N FAM 20 NNW BMG 40 NNW LEX 60 SW LEX 25 NNE HSV 20 WNW SEM 25 N MOB GPT 65 S HUM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ....LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING TROUGH CROSSING CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AM PROGGED TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD TO LOWER MS VALLEY BY FRI AM. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SWRN KS ATTM MOVES TO LOWER MO VALLEY BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES SEWD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION FROM THE KS LOW INTO NRN NM REACHING LOWER MS VALLEY 12Z FRI. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE SRN STATES AS FAR E AS GA AND RAPIDLY RETURNING GULF MOISTURE UNDERWAY SRN AND ERN TX...AIR MASS POTENTIALLY COULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL CINH AND THE MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET SLOWING THE SURFACE HEATING...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL AT LEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING UPWARD MOTION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY THIS EVENING. AS 60F DEWPOINTS SPREADS THRU ERN TX INTO LA...MLCAPES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COOL/STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD THAT WILL BE MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN OK INTO N TX DURING THE EVENING. INITIAL THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE OVERNIGHT AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO SHORT LINES/BOWS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE STRONG UPWARD MOTION AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THE CAP WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT ERN TX INTO LA. 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET BY LATE TONIGHT LOWER MS VALLEY COUPLED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE 80PLUS KT 500 WIND MAX WILL PROVIDE SHEAR PROFILES INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO FORM AHEAD OF THE FORCED ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FRONT WOULD HAVE TORNADO POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT. THIS ACCOUNTS FOR THE INCREASE AND SWD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TORNADO PROBABILITIES IN THIS FORECAST. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR EAST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT BOTH 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE POTENTIALLY MLCAPES AT LEAST TO 500 J/KG INTO SWRN MS BY 12Z FRI. ..HALES.. 01/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 12 19:50:38 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 14:50:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601121952.k0CJqUuO003640@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121950 SWODY1 SPC AC 121948 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ASD LCH UTS CRS DUA FYV VIH BLV 30 SE MVN MKL UOX GWO JAN PIB ASD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE CRP 35 N NIR AUS FTW ADM GMJ PIA SBN 35 NE FWA DAY CKV TUP MEI 30 NNW MOB 70 SSE MOB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VLY.... ...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES... SLOW MODIFICATION OF AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES...AND A RETURN FLOW IS NOW DEVELOPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP...EVEN OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT TONGUE OF 55-60F SURFACE DEW POINTS IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THIS WILL CONTINUING ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING...AND PERHAPS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTING ONGOING SHOWERY/LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. STRONG CAP ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLATEAU HAS INHIBITED DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN THE CASE UNTIL MID-LEVEL FORCING INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF DIGGING UPSTREAM TROUGH. INITIATION OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY AROUND 13/01-03Z...NEAR PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION...AND CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL THREAT IN MOST DEVELOPING STORMS...WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD/EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TORNADO/WIND THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...BUT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BASED INCREASINGLY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AS SURFACE DEW POINTS SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE NIGHT. BETTER INFLUX OF MOISTURE...AND POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. ..KERR.. 01/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 12 22:04:08 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 17:04:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601122206.k0CM613b032448@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122203 SWODY1 SPC AC 122201 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0401 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ASD LCH UTS CRS DUA FYV VIH BLV 30 SE MVN MKL UOX GWO JAN PIB ASD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE CRP 35 N NIR AUS FTW ADM GMJ PIA SBN 35 NE FWA DAY CKV TUP MEI 30 NNW MOB 70 SSE MOB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VLY.... ...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES... SLOW MODIFICATION OF AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES...AND A RETURN FLOW IS NOW DEVELOPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP...EVEN OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT TONGUE OF 55-60F SURFACE DEW POINTS IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THIS WILL CONTINUING ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING...AND PERHAPS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTING ONGOING SHOWERY/LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. STRONG CAP ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLATEAU HAS INHIBITED DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN THE CASE UNTIL MID-LEVEL FORCING INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF DIGGING UPSTREAM TROUGH. INITIATION OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY AROUND 13/01-03Z...NEAR PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION...AND CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL THREAT IN MOST DEVELOPING STORMS...WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD/EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TORNADO/WIND THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...BUT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BASED INCREASINGLY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AS SURFACE DEW POINTS SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE NIGHT. BETTER INFLUX OF MOISTURE...AND POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. ..KERR.. 01/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 01:11:23 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 20:11:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601130113.k0D1DFxW027375@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130110 SWODY1 SPC AC 130109 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0709 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BPT CLL 15 N ACT 20 NW DAL 20 W FYV 20 E SGF 30 E VIH 10 SW BLV MVN 45 NE PAH 45 NNE MKL 30 SSE MKL 40 SE GWO 25 ESE HEZ 40 NNW LFT 30 NNW BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE PSX 30 SSE TPL 40 SSE SEP 40 NNW FTW 40 N JLN 25 NE COU 35 W SPI 25 NNE LAF 20 S MIE 35 SSE SDF 15 S BNA 25 S MSL 45 ESE MEI 10 ENE MOB 70 SW PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...ARKLATEX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY... POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 90KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX WERE DEVELOPING ESEWD ACROSS OK AND NORTH TX THIS EVENING. SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN OVERTAKING THE DRYLINE FROM NERN OK SWWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER TO MWL AT 00Z. MEANWHILE...PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN FROM SOUTHEAST TX NWD TO THE OZARKS BENEATH RELATIVELY STOUT CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 850MB. WARM NOSE DEFINING THE CAPPING LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AS BOTH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MESOSCALE FRONTAL LIFT SPREAD EAST THIS EVENING. TSTM INITIATION NEAR WAS NOW OCCURRING OVER ERN OK/NWRN AR. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR SWWD TOWARD NERN TX...AND NEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS THROUGH LATE EVENING. EVENING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DEPICT 25-45KT LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW VEERING TO WSWLY AND INCREASING TO 40-50KT THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. SHEAR AND FORCING ACROSS THE SLGT RISK AREA ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 30-50KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING STORM ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENCE. COUPLED WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM AR ENEWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. GIVEN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF DEEPENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION...AND FOCUSED LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONT...INITIAL DISCRETE STORMS FROM AR SWWD SHOULD MERGE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND SPREAD EAST TO THE MS VALLEY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IF INITIAL CELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE AND OVERCOME WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER INHIBITION...A SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT COULD EVOLVE ACROSS ERN OK AND THE ARKLATEX REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY LINEAR AND MOVES EAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ..CARBIN.. 01/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 06:00:38 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 01:00:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601130602.k0D62SGS029204@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130600 SWODY1 SPC AC 130558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S BVE 30 SSE PIB 20 N MEI 40 ENE CBM 50 NNE HSV 35 SE CSV 30 ENE AVL 10 SSE HKY 25 WSW SOP 40 NNE CHS 40 E SAV 15 SSE SSI 30 W SGJ 60 SSW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE MLB 55 W FMY ...CONT... 60 S LCH 10 SE HEZ 25 S UOX CKV 40 NNE SDF 20 SSW CMH 30 NNW UNI 15 SSE PKB SSU 25 SW LYH 55 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 20 NE AST 25 NE 4BK 20 SSE UKI 15 SE SFO 20 W MRY 40 SW MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE GLS 25 NNW MLU 25 NNW MEM 30 SSW PAH SLO 10 ENE CMI 35 S SBN 10 SSW DTW 45 NE CLE 40 WNW IPT 15 NNE IPT 30 WNW MSV 35 WSW PSF 15 NNE BAF 10 ESE ORH 25 SE EWB 35 SW ACK. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MISSISSIPPI...SRN/ERN TENNESSEE...MUCH OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NRN FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SCNTRL CONUS AS A POWERFUL MID LEVEL TROUGH PRODUCES SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. VERY STRONG MID LEVEL JET CORE...500MB WINDS OF 100-110KT...WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE MS DELTA REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS INTENSIFYING SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGES EAST FROM THE MS RIVER TO THE TN VALLEY. GIVEN RAPID EWD TRANSLATION OF THE ENTIRE TROUGH SYSTEM...AND 12H 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 200M...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND INTO NRN FL LATER THIS EVENING. INTENSE FORCED ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. FROM TN NWD TO THE OH VALLEY...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN DIFFLUENT EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET CORE... COUPLED WITH LOWERING STATIC STABILITY...SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION THROUGH TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS DEVELOPING PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM UPPER OH VALLEY TO NRN VA. IN THE WEST...ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD INCREASE...AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. ...TN VALLEY/SOUTH... STRONGLY FORCED PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE HAS EVOLVED AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/OZARKS REGIONS AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK. GIVEN INTENSE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS SPREADING EAST INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE...SEVERE WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST ACROSS TN/AL/GA...AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE... THROUGH AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED RETURN FLOW/MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED INSTABILITY. DESPITE LOW CAPE...STRONGLY FORCED SLAB ASCENT WITHIN MOIST ADIABATIC ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE LINE SHOULD SUPPORT LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE LAYER /MAUL/. CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING WITHIN THIS LAYER WILL LEAD TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REACHING THE SURFACE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW-TOPPED DERECHO PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BREAKS IN THE LINE...OR ANY CELLULAR CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE...WILL BE LOCATIONS FAVORED FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH WRN SC BY EVENING AND MAY BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER SLIGHT DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WITH EWD EXTENT. HOWEVER...THIS MAY HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL GIVEN RAPID EWD PROGRESSION OF THE LINE AND STRONG FORCING. THUS...DAMAGING WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH LATE EVENING. ...OH VALLEY EAST TO MID ATLANTIC... STRONG DYNAMICS WILL MAINTAIN LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT. WHILE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOWER THAN FARTHER SOUTH...SHEAR AND FORCING APPEAR TO SUGGEST AT LEAST MARGINAL HAIL/WIND EVENTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE OH VALLEY...AND PERHAPS EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ..CARBIN.. 01/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 12:39:30 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 07:39:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601131241.k0DCfJXM005919@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131239 SWODY1 SPC AC 131237 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S HUM 25 SE BTR 35 WSW MEI 35 SW 0A8 25 WSW TOI 10 NNE MGR 30 SSW SAV 15 ESE FLO 30 NW RWI 25 SW ORF 40 ENE HSE ...CONT... 40 ENE SGJ 15 E GNV 40 SW PIE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW 7R4 25 NW MCB 15 ENE CBM 40 SE BWG 40 WNW SDF 20 ESE IND 20 S DAY 15 WSW HTS 35 ENE TRI 10 ESE ROA 25 NE HGR 15 ENE ABE 45 ESE NEL ...CONT... 45 NNE PBI 35 SW APF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S LCH 20 ENE HEZ MEM 45 SW EVV 40 ENE SLO 40 N DNV 25 NNE AZO 20 W MTC 20 NNW YNG 25 ESE BUF 20 NNE SYR 15 E GFL 25 NE ORH 35 SW ACK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 20 NE AST 30 E 4BK 45 S RBL 20 NE SCK 45 E MRY 65 WSW PRB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SE LA/SRN AL INTO NRN FL/SRN GA...AND FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS TO THE DELMARVA REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE FL PENINSULA... ...SYNOPSIS... SATELLITE...PROFILER AND VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE LWR MS VLY SHOULD CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TODAY AS ASSOCIATED JET STREAK NOW OVER NE TX/NW LA CONTINUES E/SE INTO THE NRN GULF AND UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE RCKYS. SURFACE LOW NOW CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LWR OH VLY SHOULD DEEPEN AND MOVE E ACROSS KY TODAY/TONIGHT...BEFORE REDEVELOPING E OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO MD/SRN PA EARLY SATURDAY. COLD FRONT TRAILING S FROM THE LOW SHOULD ACCELERATE E/SE ACROSS THE GULF CST STATES/GA AND FL TODAY/TONIGHT...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FRONT LIKELY WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY E ACROSS ERN NC/VA AND MD LATER IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ...ERN LA/MS INTO S GA/FL... PROPAGATION OF ORIGINAL SQUALL LINE THAT FORMED LAST EVENING IN ERN OK/AR HAS CARRIED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SOMEWHAT E OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN KY/MIDDLE TN...NW AL AND CNTRL MS. NRN PART OF LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DECELERATE OVER THE OH AND UPR TN VLYS LATER THIS MORNING. SRN PART OF SQUALL LINE...SHOULD...HOWEVER...REMAIN STRONG AND MAY SHOW SOME INTENSIFICATION SWD INTO THE GULF AS IT ACCELERATES E/SE ACROSS SE MS/SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. RESIDUAL WEDGE AIR MASS OVER NRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF AL/GA...AND UPLAND SC...SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IN THOSE AREAS AS CONVECTIVE BAND PASSES THROUGH. FARTHER S... HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE IN EXIT REGION OF AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK...50-60 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF WARM FRONT SEGMENT OVER THE NRN GULF /NEAR MOB/...SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS MAY YIELD HIGH WIND...A COUPLE TORNADOES AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL AS THEY MOVE/SPREAD E ACROSS SRN AL...THE FL PANHANDLE AND NRN/WRN FL LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FARTHER S...MORE ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ACTIVITY OVER CNTRL AND SRN FL...WHERE MODERATE AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE BENEATH STRENGTHENING /40-50 KT/ WLY FLOW ALOFT. ...ERN CAROLINAS INTO VA/MD/DE/SE PA/NJ... CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING OF SSWLY FLOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ERN SC/NC RAOBS AND SURFACE DATA OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SHOW PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION. THIS AIR SHOULD BE DRAWN NWD ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN INTO AT LEAST THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND 50 KT DEEP SSWLY SHEAR...SETUP MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SMALL SCALE BOWS/TORNADOES LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. ...OH VLY... PRESENCE OF STRONG DPVA DOWNSTREAM FROM MAIN UPPER VORT NOW OVER CNTRL AR...COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE INFLOW...MAY INITIATE A SECONDARY AREA OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INVOF SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT IN IND/KY. EXPECTED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL...HOWEVER...BE LIMITED...AND UPPER FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO BACK ALOFT. THESE FACTORS MAY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...AND REGION MAY BE DOWNGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..CORFIDI.. 01/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 16:36:36 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 11:36:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601131638.k0DGcNoH012059@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131622 SWODY1 SPC AC 131620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S MOB 35 ENE MOB 20 SSW MGM 15 SW LGC 15 NE MCN 15 SE VDI 35 SSE AYS 45 SW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW BVE 50 N MOB 30 NW ATL 10 NNE AND 30 SW GSO 30 ENE HGR 25 NNW TTN 35 SE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE VRB 40 W APF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 20 NE AST 30 E 4BK 45 S RBL 20 NE SCK 45 E MRY 65 WSW PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW BVE 55 SSE MEI 30 NE MSL 20 SSE CKV 20 S MVN 20 E BMI 40 ESE SBN 25 ENE FDY 20 SSE PKB EKN 15 SSW SYR 15 E GFL 20 WSW PSM 50 ENE HYA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN AL...SRN/CENTRAL GA...NRN FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MOST OF THE SERN U.S. INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SRN AL/SRN GA/FL... WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL AL NEAR INTERSECTION WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT AND ESE ORIENTED WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING INTO CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON. A PAIR OF WARM FRONTS IS EVIDENT AT 16Z...NRN MOST IS WEDGE FRONT OVER UPLANDS OF SC/NC/NRN GA...WITH MARINE FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN GA INTO SERN AL. CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER DISCRETE THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL SRM COUPLETS EVIDENT ON AREA RADARS OVER SRN AL AND FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE. 12Z SOUNDINGS WITHIN MODEST WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RECOVERY IS NEEDED INTO SRN GA AND MUCH OF NRN FL. HOWEVER...SIL/S SOUNDING INDICATED A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS WHICH IS FEEDING CURRENT ACTIVITY. AS STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS TODAY...EXPECT SIMILAR AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP ENEWD INTO GA AND NRN FL WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S F. VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING ALSO INDICATES STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF CURRENT BROKEN SQUALL LINE OVER MUCH OF FL PANHANDLE/NWRN FL INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS WILL LIKELY AID DEVELOPING PRIMARY WARM FRONT INTO NRN/CENTRAL GA AND CENTRAL SC THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS EXPECTED WARM SECTOR YIELD SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH 50+ KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2. THUS...TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN INCREASED INTO FAR SRN AL...SRN/CENTRAL GA AND NRN FL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS. LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE FROM SERN GA SWWD INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS MUCH OF FL OVERNIGHT WHERE RECOVERING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...CAROLINAS INTO THE DELMARVA AND SERN PA/NJ... LOW LEVEL WAA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL AHEAD OF PRIMARY UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...AND SIMILAR DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY ADVECT NWD RAPIDLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS 50+ KT SLY LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN NC AND ERN VA. AS SHEAR INCREASES LATER TODAY...SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO LIKELY INCREASE AS ACTIVITY STRENGTHENS NEAR THE NC/SC COAST. PRIMARY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT OF GA AND DEVELOP EWD OFF THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT AS STRONG/DEEP ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES AS IT SPREADS EWD OFF THE COAST AND DEVELOPS NWD ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE LATE TONIGHT. ...OH RIVER VALLEY... INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...NEAR 50 F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ATTM OVERALL THREAT WARRANTS LOWERING OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..EVANS.. 01/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 19:54:39 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 14:54:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601131956.k0DJuQ76002519@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131953 SWODY1 SPC AC 131952 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PFN 40 WNW ABY 35 ENE CSG 35 SSW AHN AGS 25 SE SAV 35 SSW SGJ 40 WSW PIE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE PNS 35 SSW CSG 35 E RMG PSK SHD HGR 25 NNW TTN 50 ESE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MSS ALB 60 ENE HYA ...CONT... 55 SSW PNS BHM BWG 30 WSW BMG VPZ GRR 65 NE BAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 20 NE AST 30 E 4BK 45 S RBL 20 NE SCK 45 E MRY 65 WSW PRB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF CNTRL/SRN GA AND NRN FL.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA ACROSS THE MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ....EASTERN STATES... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SEEMS TO SUGGEST ANOTHER STRONG JET STREAK IS DEVELOPING/DIGGING UPSTREAM OF BASE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MUCH AS FORECAST BY MODELS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOUTHEASTWARD AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER STILL IN THE PROCESS OF MODIFYING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING STILL LAGGING TO THE WEST OF SURFACE WARM SECTOR...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. HOWEVER... DEEPENING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ADVECT INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR BENEATH INCREASINGLY STRONG AND DIFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW FIELD...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN AND JUST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE. GIVEN PRESENCE OF AT LEAST WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES. FATHER NORTH...STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT THROUGH THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY EVENING... INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS CONTINUING LIKLIHOOD OF INLAND ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND DESTABILIZATION SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE. A LARGE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE...BEFORE SPREADING OFF ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT. EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG 40 TO 50 KT MEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW...MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT SEEMS TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 01/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 00:47:30 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 19:47:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601140049.k0E0nHDI013211@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140047 SWODY1 SPC AC 140045 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE AAF 50 WSW VDI 45 N AGS 30 SSW HKY 45 NW GSO 30 NNE LYH 35 SSW DCA 30 SSW DOV 45 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW AAF 15 S ABY 15 ENE MCN 15 SE AND 15 ESE HSS 45 SSE JKL 30 NW JKL 35 NNW SDF 25 ENE HUF LAF 40 WNW FWA 35 SSW JXN 10 ENE CLE FKL 30 SSE BFD 20 NE AVP 10 NNE BAF 15 SW AUG 15 N EPM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FL...THE SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC... POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH 100KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK NOW DEVELOPING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER MS/AL. ASSOCIATED SHARP SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO A CLT-CAE-TLH LINE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A NEARLY SOLID LINE OF TSTMS EXISTS NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS SC...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE. RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FROM SERN GA AND CNTRL SC ENEWD TO THE NC OUTER BANKS GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. MARGINAL /MOIST ADIABATIC/ LAPSE RATES WERE CONTRIBUTING TO ONLY MEAGER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER MUCH OF SC AND NC FRONT...WITH MUCAPE VALUES AOB 250 J/KG. GREATER INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 500-1500 J/KG/ WAS BEING INDICATED IN OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND LATEST SOUNDING DATA FROM CHS SWWD TO NRN FL. GIVEN STRONGLY FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT...AND INTENSE SHEAR EVIDENT IN WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TORNADO AND/OR WIND DAMAGE EVENTS REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS SRN SC AND SERN GA WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY IS SITUATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ...FL... DESPITE VEERED/WLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE COINCIDENT WITH FRONTAL INTRUSION ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TONIGHT. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS INDICATING COOLING CLOUD TOPS WITHIN BROKEN SQUALL LINE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF NORTH FL. FURTHERMORE...RADAR SUGGESTS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WERE ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN THIS BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FROM EVENING RAOBS...IN ADDITION TO SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE... SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...OR SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE...WILL POSE A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE/HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES. ..CARBIN.. 01/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 05:23:34 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 14 Jan 2006 00:23:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601140525.k0E5PK1D011226@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140523 SWODY1 SPC AC 140521 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S HSE 20 ENE BWI 25 NNE ABE 20 S PSF 50 NNE BGR 25 SE HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI 40 NNW OLM 40 SSE OTH 30 S MHS 60 S TVL 15 W NID 25 NE RAL 20 WSW CZZ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN SITUATED FROM COAST TO COAST ACROSS THE CONUS. IN THE EAST...AN EXTENSIVE AND INTENSE MERIDIONAL TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS TO NEW ENGLAND AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND CANADIAN MARITIMES. DEEP LAYER SLY FLOW ON THE ERN FLANK OF THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE NWD IN ADVANCE OF INTENSIFYING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE NRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AXIS. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY DRIVE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER NJ BY AFTERNOON AND THIS LOW SHOULD TRACK RAPIDLY NEWD TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY EVENING. WHILE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED...TSTMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AND INLAND ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND GIVEN INTENSE DYNAMICS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICT ANOTHER EXTENSIVE MERIDIONAL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...NEARING 127W. STRONG IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WEST OF THE CNTRL CA COAST AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS LATER TODAY. WHILE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND INTENSIFYING OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK INSTABILITY AND MEAGER LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZED TSTM POTENTIAL. ..CARBIN.. 01/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 12:36:04 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 14 Jan 2006 07:36:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601141237.k0ECbnFo018172@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141235 SWODY1 SPC AC 141233 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE HSE NEL 20 ENE MSV 25 SSE RUT 50 NNE BGR 25 SE HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI 40 NNW OLM 40 SE OTH 40 WNW RBL 55 NNE SAC 45 NNE NID 45 SE DAG 50 WNW SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SATELLITE AND UPSTREAM VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT POWERFUL SRN APPALACHIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND ASSUME A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CONTINUES E INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW REDEVELOPING OVER SE NY VERY SLOW MOVING AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY E ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. IN THE WEST...SRN PART OF E PACIFIC TROUGH COMPLEX EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT MEMBER AS IT CONTINUES ESE INTO SRN CA BY 12Z SUNDAY. ...NEW ENG... PRE-COLD FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING S FROM THE LWR HUDSON VLY MAY DECELERATE A BIT AS IT CONTINUES E ACROSS SRN NEW ENG AND LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD STILL CLEAR THE MA CST BY 18Z. DEEP/STRONG SSWLY WIND FIELD ORIENTED PARALLEL TO BAND WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW AMPLITUDE LEWPS. WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL...HOWEVER...LIMIT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW/50+ KT LLJ. A FEW SPOTS OF HIGH WIND MAY OCCUR BEFORE CONVECTIVE BAND CLEARS THE CST. BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. FARTHER N...MODEST LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER ME LATER TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO REGION. BUT AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND ASSUMPTION OF NEGATIVE TILT WILL KEEP AREA BENEATH LARGELY STRAIGHT UPPER FLOW AND/OR LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING. THUS...DEEP LAYER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED. ...W CST... STRONG IMPULSE NOW NEAR 36N/126W SHOULD MOVE INTO CNTRL CA THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS/MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION. WHILE STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SPOTS OF HAIL...RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..CORFIDI.. 01/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 16:42:26 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 14 Jan 2006 11:42:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601141644.k0EGiASB017679@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141626 SWODY1 SPC AC 141625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI 35 NE AST 40 SE OTH 40 WNW RBL 55 NNE SAC 65 N NID 25 NNE EDW 30 WSW OXR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WEST COAST... LONG WAVE TROUGH NOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WILL SPREAD EWD AS TWO DISTINCT MID/UPPER LOWS MOVE OFF THE ERN PACIFIC. NRN MOST SYSTEM NOW JUST OFF THE BC COAST WILL DIG ESEWD INTO NWRN WA TODAY...AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY -32C H5 COLD POCKET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES AND WILL THUS MAINTAIN FORECAST OF A FEW LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS REGION. SRN SYSTEM IS OVER THE CENTRAL CA COAST ATTM...AND WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF CA TODAY. SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION IS QUITE WIDESPREAD WITH THE CA SYSTEM EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL INHIBIT HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOME BREAKS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER TODAY IN WAKE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN SAC/NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND -28C MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AFTERNOON HEATING MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL. ..EVANS.. 01/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 19:38:57 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 14 Jan 2006 14:38:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601141940.k0EJeeF5027796@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141938 SWODY1 SPC AC 141937 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI 35 NE AST 40 SE OTH 40 WNW RBL 55 NNE SAC 65 N NID 25 NNE EDW 30 WSW OXR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WEST COAST... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WITH TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED NEAR SFO AND JUST NW OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. AN AXIS OF RELATIVELY COLD /-28 TO -34 C AT 500 MB/ TEMPERATURES IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM PUGET SOUND INTO THE CNTRL VALLEY OF CA. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...EXCEPT S AND SE OF SFO WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH THE 50S. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM THE CA CNTRL VALLEY NWD AS INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVERSPREADS DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. FARTHER TO THE N FROM NRN CA INTO WRN WA...CONFIDENCE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT AS HIGH...THOUGH THE PERSISTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. ..MEAD.. 01/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 15 00:34:14 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 14 Jan 2006 19:34:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601150035.k0F0ZwUf016146@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150033 SWODY1 SPC AC 150031 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0631 PM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW BIH 20 WNW NID 30 NW PMD 10 WNW BFL 45 SE FAT 10 NW FAT 70 SSE TVL 10 SSW BIH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...A RIDGE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY...AND TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE WRN ATLANTIC. ...CENTRAL CA... LOCAL HEATING OVER THE SRN CENTRAL VALLEY OF CA BENEATH UPPER COLD POOL HAS YIELDED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- MAINLY CONFINED TO ERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY DIRECTLY ADJACENT TO THE SIERRA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MAIN LIGHTNING THREAT SHIFTING SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME. HOWEVER...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY INTO THIS EVENING. ..GOSS.. 01/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 15 06:00:05 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 15 Jan 2006 01:00:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601150601.k0F61lGD025066@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150558 SWODY1 SPC AC 150557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW P38 10 SW DPG 45 WSW COD 30 NNW GCC 30 ENE PUB 20 SE LVS 45 SE GNT 50 NE DUG 40 E YUM 55 NNE DAG 60 NW P38. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THIS PERIOD...AS WRN U.S. TROUGH TRAVERSES THE ROCKIES WHILE ERN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF WRN U.S. TROUGH. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NWD ACROSS E TX/WRN LA/AR THIS PERIOD...LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD MAINTAIN A LOW-LEVEL CAP PRECLUDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA. THUNDER THREAT THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE ROCKIES BENEATH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ...SWRN U.S. NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. DIURNAL HEATING BENEATH COLD POOL /-28 TO -32 C AT 500 MB/ SHOULD YIELD MARGINAL INSTABILITY -- SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION. THUNDER SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WITH GREATEST THREAT SHIFTING INTO AZ/NM/CO THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 01/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 15 12:52:17 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 15 Jan 2006 07:52:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601151254.k0FCs0sA024449@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151252 SWODY1 SPC AC 151251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2006 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW P38 20 W DPG 35 NNW WEY 15 E SHR 25 WNW LAR 20 NW PUB 20 SE LVS 45 SE GNT 40 NNE SAD 20 NE BLH 55 NNE DAG 60 NW P38. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NOAM. WRN U.S. TROUGH SHOULD FURTHER DEEPEN AS ORE IMPULSE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GRT BASIN AND LEAD DISTURBANCE DAMPENS OVER THE CNTRL RCKYS. AT LWR LEVELS...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING OVER THE CNTRL U.S. SHOULD SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AND SHIFT SE INTO THE LWR MO VLY/CNTRL PLNS. ...GRT BASIN/4 CORNERS/CNTRL RCKYS... SCATTERED DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GRT BASIN AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING ORE TROUGH...WHERE HEATING BENEATH COLD POOL /-28 TO -32 C AT 500 MB/ SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SPOTS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY NOT REACH NRN AZ UNTIL TONIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE SHOULD DOMINATE IN WAKE OF LEAD IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE 4 CORNERS REGION. THE LATER DISTURBANCE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DIURNAL STORMS IN WRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF CO/WY LATER TODAY. ...E TX/LWR MS AND TN VLYS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD N ACROSS E TX AND THE LWR MS VLY THIS PERIOD AS LOW SETTLES SE INTO NEB/MO. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL CAP THE MOISTURE PLUME...PRECLUDING TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SOME ELEVATED /MID LEVEL/ CONVECTION MAY FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE TN VLY AS PACIFIC MOISTURE IS LIFTED ALONG DEVELOPING ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE THUNDER. ..CORFIDI.. 01/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 15 16:18:12 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 15 Jan 2006 11:18:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601151619.k0FGJsaJ028536@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151616 SWODY1 SPC AC 151615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1015 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2006 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW LVS 35 W ONM 55 WSW SOW 30 ENE BLH 60 SW LAS 40 NW P38 30 SSW DPG 55 ESE SLC 30 N VEL 10 NW EGE 35 WNW TAD 20 SSW LVS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WESTERN U.S INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... MID/UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STRONG VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX DIG SEWD TOWARDS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY AND COOL OVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ADJACENT CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN MODEST JANUARY HEATING UNDER VERY COLD MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MOIST CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLIVER OF SBCAPE OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...DESPITE AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S F. THUS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHIFTING SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TROUGH GAINS AMPLITUDE. LATER TONIGHT...SHALLOW...ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION MAY ALSO BEGIN DEVELOPING INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS LLJ STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MUCH IF ANY THUNDER. ..EVANS.. 01/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 15 19:46:32 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 15 Jan 2006 14:46:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601151948.k0FJmDfj021293@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151946 SWODY1 SPC AC 151945 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2006 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE LVS 30 SE TCS 30 ESE SAD 30 ENE BLH 45 SSW LAS 65 WNW P38 35 WNW U24 50 NW PUC VEL 10 NW EGE 35 WNW TAD 55 SSE LVS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INTO 4-CORNERS REGION... AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIGGING SEWD OVER CNTRL/SRN NV WITH ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /I.E. -28 TO -32 C AT 500 MB/ SPREADING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. THIS MID-LEVEL COOLING COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS REGION WHICH IS SUPPORTING A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD OVER SWRN UT INTO NWRN AZ. CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ALONG WITH INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SAME GENERAL AREA. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER SWRN CO INTO NM IN ADVANCE OF MAIN UPPER SYSTEM PROGRESSING SEWD ACROSS REGION. ..MEAD.. 01/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 16 00:58:03 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 15 Jan 2006 19:58:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601160059.k0G0xiUJ024505@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160057 SWODY1 SPC AC 160056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2006 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E 4CR 45 SSE ALM 45 WSW SVC 30 ENE BLH 45 SSW LAS 55 SW SGU 15 WSW CDC 20 SW U28 20 N VEL 10 SE FCL 55 E 4CR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...WITH SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD TOWARD NWRN MEXICO AND THE NRN PORTION MOVING EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES. MEANWHILE...NERN U.S. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/ERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SRN ROCKIES... A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS ERN UTAH...WITH A STRIKE ALSO INDICATED OVER NWRN AZ. LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING INVOF AN UPPER CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SERN UT -- WITHIN LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. AS TROUGH DIGS SEWD WITH TIME...A THREAT FOR SCATTERED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL LIKEWISE SPREAD EWD/SEWD...TOWARD NM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 01/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 16 06:05:41 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 16 Jan 2006 01:05:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601160607.k0G67Kn4016892@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160604 SWODY1 SPC AC 160602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 AM CST MON JAN 16 2006 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE BRO 25 S CRP 25 S BAZ 35 ESE SEP 35 SSE BVX 20 SSE DYR 40 ESE TUP 10 NNW MEI 60 SE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S DMN 30 E TCS 45 ESE 4CR 40 WSW LBB 60 NNW ABI 55 NNW FTW 15 WNW RKR 15 NNW POF 40 NW EVV 30 NNW LUK 50 E LUK 30 SW HTS 25 E LOZ 10 W CHA 15 SSW BHM 50 SW SEM 45 SE PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX EWD INTO THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS.... ...SYNOPSIS... FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AND THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...AIRMASS OVER THE GULF REMAINS ONLY PARTIALLY-MODIFIED. THEREFORE...QUALITY OF MOISTURE ADVECTING NWD INTO THE S CENTRAL CONUS -- AND THUS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY -- SHOULD BE MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS LIMITING OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ...S CENTRAL CONUS... THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS E TX BY MID-AFTERNOON...AS COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY...WITH AOB 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ANTICIPATED -- GREATEST OVER SERN TX. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL BE VERY STRONG...WHICH COMBINED WITH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC VEERING WILL RESULT IN SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THOUGH STORM MODE REMAINS QUESTIONABLE... IT APPEARS ATTM THAT PRIMARY MODE SHOULD BE LINEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER SERN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND INTO SRN LA LATER IN THE PERIOD...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION MAY YIELD PRE-FRONTAL/CELLULAR CONVECTION. ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE 5% TORNADO PROBABILITY ACROSS SERN TX AND SRN LA WHERE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR CELLULAR CONVECTION AND MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN CONVECTIVE LINE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FURTHER AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST...INCREASINGLY MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WITH NWD EXTENT SUGGESTS NWD DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT. MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE -- LIKELY CONTAINING TRANSIENT/SMALL-SCALE LEWPS AND BOWS. THIS THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR N AS THE TN VALLEY...AND SHOULD SWEEP EWD ACROSS MS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 01/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 16 12:59:15 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 16 Jan 2006 07:59:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601161301.k0GD11h3023475@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161258 SWODY1 SPC AC 161257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 AM CST MON JAN 16 2006 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE CRP ALI 20 ESE SAT 25 ESE ACT 40 NW SHV 15 S LLQ 40 SW MEM 45 SSE MKL 50 ENE CBM 20 SE MEI 60 SE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S DMN 30 E TCS 45 ESE 4CR 45 WSW LBB 35 S MAF 60 N DRT 55 WNW AUS 15 SSW FTW 40 W HOT 15 NNW POF 40 NW EVV 30 NNW LUK 50 E LUK 30 SW HTS 25 E LOZ 10 W CHA 15 SSW BHM 50 SW SEM 45 SE PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX INTO THE LWR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW CROSSING AZ/NM SHOULD FURTHER AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS IT CONTINUES E TO THE ERN PLNS AND PHASES WITH NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW DROPPING SE FROM ALBERTA. AT LOWER LEVELS... COLD FRONT NOW STRENGTHENING OVER NW OK/KS AND THE LWR MO VLY SHOULD ACCELERATE SEWD TODAY...REACHING A STL/FSM/DAL LINE BY EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A PREFRONTAL TROUGH/DRY LINE IN TX...AND SHOULD CONTINUE E/SE INTO CNTRL KY/NW AL AND SE LA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ...E TX INTO LWR MS VLY... SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER E/SE TX AND THE WRN GULF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ENHANCING MOISTURE RETURN/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH. BUT LATEST SURFACE DATA AND LOW CLOUD PATTERNS IN SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT QUALITY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER MODEST...WITH AT BEST LOW 60S DEWPOINTS SPREADING NWD INTO E TX/LA AND SRN MS/AL. PRESENCE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LIKELY WILL PROHIBIT SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER TX AND LA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...EXPECT THAT BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND DEPTH...AND EVENTUALLY YIELD THUNDER AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE WRN AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE BAND SHOULD BECOME NEARLY SURFACE-BASED AS HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING/MOISTURE INFLOW FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION. WITH 500 MB SWLY FLOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO AOA 80 KTS...AMPLE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. GIVEN LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD LAYER FLOW...EXPECTED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FORCING /FRONT AND TROUGH/...MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE QUASI-LINEAR WITH EMBEDDED LOW AMPLITUDE LEWPS/BOWS. WHILE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MODEST AND SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS MAY BE SLOW TO EVOLVE OUT OF MORE BENIGN ACTIVITY...STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND LIKELIHOOD FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED UPDRAFTS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. FARTHER E...LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE MAY PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO POTENTIALLY TORNADIC STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND. EWD PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD ALLOW SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES...TO REACH SE LA...SRN/ CNTRL MS AND PERHAPS WRN AL BY 12Z TUESDAY. A MORE LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL EXTEND N INTO TN. ..CORFIDI.. 01/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 16 16:26:40 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 16 Jan 2006 11:26:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601161628.k0GGSKfZ014130@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161623 SWODY1 SPC AC 161621 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 AM CST MON JAN 16 2006 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE PSX 30 N VCT 40 ESE AUS 20 NW CLL 40 S TYR 25 SSE SHV 35 S JAN 20 E ASD 50 SW BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S DMN 25 E TCS 50 NNW ROW 45 WSW LBB 45 S MAF 15 SSE 6R6. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MFE 10 WSW HDO 40 W ACT 40 NNE PRX 15 S UNO 15 SW MVN 30 SW BMG 35 NNE SDF 20 E LEX 10 ENE LOZ 40 NNW HSV 25 NW TCL 35 W GZH 65 S MOB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... ...TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... VERY STRONG TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SWD ACROSS TX TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SUBSTANTIAL ENERGY REMAINS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP TROUGH AXIS POSITIVELY-TILTED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT MORE NEWD TOWARDS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS...SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH H5 WINDS INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 90 KT BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. GULF MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST WITH HIGHEST SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S JUST OFF THE CENTRAL TX COAST. ALSO...12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING WITH 16-20C H85 TEMPERATURES ACROSS SRN/ERN TX. WITH EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION NOW OVERSPREADING ERN TX/NRN LA...HEATING WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST SUGGESTING STRONGER STORMS WILL AWAIT ENHANCED FORCING/COOLING H85-H7 TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TX LATER TODAY WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING TROUGH...A LOW CENTER WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY OVER ERN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND DEVELOP ENEWD INTO CENTRAL/NRN MS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW SURGING SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. MUCAPE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO EXCEED 500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN ALONG WRN AND SWRN FRINGE OF CURRENT LOW LEVEL WAA PRECIPITATION SHIELD EVOLVING OVER THE REGION. GIVEN EXTREME SHEAR AND CO-LOCATION OF LOWER TO MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SOUTHEAST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...ANY STORM WHICH CAN ROOT NEAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BECOME SEVERE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR WIND DAMAGE EVENT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN DEEP ASCENT PLUME...WITH THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT AS BROKEN SQUALL LINE EVOLVES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/LEWP STRUCTURES. ..EVANS.. 01/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 16 20:06:17 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 16 Jan 2006 15:06:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601162007.k0GK7qmB016093@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 162005 SWODY1 SPC AC 162003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 PM CST MON JAN 16 2006 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 ESE CRP 25 ENE PSX 15 NNE HOU 45 NNW BPT 20 SW POE 35 S ESF 15 NNW BTR 30 ESE BTR 35 SE MSY 75 SSW BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW MFE 25 NE COT 20 NW TPL 20 WSW PRX 30 SE FSM 10 S FLP 35 ESE UNO 35 SSW CGI 45 SSE PAH 60 SSW CKV 20 ENE MSL 40 SW TCL 25 NNE MOB 80 ESE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S DMN 25 E TCS 50 NNW ROW 55 NE HOB 45 S MAF 45 SSE 6R6. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX THROUGH SRN LA... ...SERN TX THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN LA... VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE WRN GULF WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...SUGGESTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL IN THE PROCESS OF MODIFICATION. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY FROM SERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE NWD ADVECTION OF THE PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FALLING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN SOME DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE COAST OF EXTREME SERN TX AND LA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE RETURN...MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS ONGOING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LIMIT CAPE TO BELOW 500 J/KG. THE MEAGER INSTABILITY IMPLIES IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN UPRIGHT CONVECTION GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF VERTICAL SHEAR. CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. THIS MAY HELP CONVECTION TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS A LINE FROM EXTREME SE TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM OR TWO FROM SERN TX THROUGH LA FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHERE PROXIMITY TO BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED. ..DIAL.. 01/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 17 00:54:14 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 16 Jan 2006 19:54:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601170055.k0H0tmPp006708@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170053 SWODY1 SPC AC 170052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CST MON JAN 16 2006 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE CRP ALI 25 SSE UTS 45 SE LFK 15 NNW LFT 25 NW MSY 45 ENE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE BRO 45 ENE LRD 10 WNW UTS 20 NW PRX 15 NNW RKR 15 NW RUE 40 W MEM 25 N TUP 45 ENE CBM 15 NNW 0A8 40 NE MOB 45 SSE PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST NEWD/EWD ACROSS COASTAL LA... ...SYNOPSIS... POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS/SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OH/MID AND LOWER MS VALLEYS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARM ADVECTION OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND FRONTAL FORCING FROM E TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...WITH INSTABILITY CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE AND NWD EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SERN TX INTO LA/SRN MS... MAIN SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST -- FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST TO SERN LA...WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND COOLING ALOFT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH ARE RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY /LESS THAN 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/. BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS INVOF COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN/SERN TX FROM ROUGHLY CRP NEWD TOWARD SHV. HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS REMAINED GENERALLY WEAK THUS FAR DUE TO THERMODYNAMIC DEFICIENCY. NONETHELESS...STRONG/VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE -- SUPPORTIVE OR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS -- SUGGESTS THAT A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL REMAIN AS STORMS SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 01/17/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 17 06:12:27 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 17 Jan 2006 01:12:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601170614.k0H6E1kp031980@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170611 SWODY1 SPC AC 170610 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2006 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW HUM 15 SW MSY 30 SW TCL 20 NE BHM 25 ESE ANB 10 ENE LGC 10 W ABY 40 SSW VLD 45 SW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW 7R4 15 SE GWO 10 S BWG 35 NW HTS 15 W BLF 40 SE PSK 40 WSW DCA 10 NNE CXY 25 NNE MSV 20 SSW BDL 45 ESE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 40 SSE CLM 30 E AST 10 ESE EUG 30 NNE MFR 40 WSW EKA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... VERY STRONG/FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME WHILE TAKING ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD TOWARD -- AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS -- THE APPALACHIANS...AS DEEPENING LOW MOVES NWD FROM THE MIDWEST INTO SRN ONTARIO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THIS REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BOTH INVOF FRONT AND WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE TN VALLEY NWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN GENERALLY MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED LOW-LEVEL HEATING...UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD BE GENERALLY INSUFFICIENT FOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. THUS...EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY -- EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST WHERE MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE NEAR 250 J/KG MAY EXIST. THEREFORE...DESPITE STRONG UPPER TROUGH...SHARP COLD FRONT...AND VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...WHERE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITHIN LINE OF STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE GULF COAST...EITHER WITHIN CONVECTIVE LINE OR WITH ANY ISOLATED CELL WITHIN STRONG WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF FRONT. THREAT WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME -- ACROSS AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...BUT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS FRONT APPROACHES THE FL PENINSULA. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS/SERN VA... EXTREME LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE ERN U.S. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND TAKES ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT. ATTM...MODELS SUGGEST THAT MINIMAL INSTABILITY -- POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED -- MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION AS GULF STREAM MOISTURE ADVECTS NNWWD. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH THIS REGION BEARS WATCHING. SHOULD SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND THUS SLIGHTLY GREATER DESTABILIZATION OCCUR...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND/TORNADO THREAT COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 01/17/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 17 12:58:23 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 17 Jan 2006 07:58:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601171259.k0HCxupJ003884@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171257 SWODY1 SPC AC 171256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2006 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE HUM 10 SSE GPT 10 WSW 0A8 20 NE BHM 30 SSW RMG 10 ENE LGC 10 W ABY 45 SSW VLD 50 SW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE BPT 50 NE JAN 10 S BWG 35 NW HTS 15 W BLF 40 SE PSK 40 WSW DCA 10 NNE CXY 25 NNE MSV 20 SSW BDL 45 ESE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BLI 15 ENE SEA 35 ENE AST 10 NNE SLE 20 SSW RDM 50 NNW LKV 40 SSE LMT 40 WSW EKA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE ERN GULF CST REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH EXPECTED TO REACH MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE TODAY AS IT CONTINUES E INTO THE MS VLY. IT SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NE AND ASSUME A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS UPSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E TO THE ROCKIES. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MAY ACCELERATE SOMEWHAT AS IT CROSSES GA AND THE CAROLINAS...BUT THE FEATURE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ANA IN NATURE AS UPPER FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPPER SYSTEM. IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...HEIGHTS SHOULD FALL AND THE DEEP FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE CYCLONIC TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER VORTS NOW NEAR 41N/135W AND 44N/143W REACH THE COAST. ...ERN GULF COAST... EXPECT THAT WIDELY SCATTERED DISCRETE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY IN ZONE OF CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COAST REGION. GULF OF MEXICO BUOY DATA AND STRATOCU CLOUD FIELD IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BOTH SUGGEST...HOWEVER...THAT MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN MODEST...WITH MAXIMUM SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S EXPECTED OVER SRN MS/SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. RECOVERY MAY EVEN BE MORE LIMITED IN GA/N FL...WHERE OVERLAND INFLOW WILL PREVAIL. MODEST DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE ERN GULF REGION. BUT AS AREA VWP DATA SHOW /0-1 KM SRH CURRENTLY GREATER THAN 400 MS/S2 AT KMOB/...KINEMATIC FIELD LIKELY WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION SHOULD DEEP/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS DEVELOP. THUS...LOW CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES FOR A TORNADO OR TWO ARE DEPICTED FOR THE REGION. FARTHER W...WEAK INSTABILITY AND ANA NATURE OF FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP SEVERE THREAT LIMITED WITH NARROW LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT...DESPITE PRESENCE OF 80+ KT DEEP SSWLY SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS...ENHANCEMENT OF STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD INVOF OF CONVECTIVE BAND MAY YIELD DAMAGING...LIKELY NON-THUNDER...WIND GUSTS AS THE ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS. ...ERN CAROLINAS/SE VA... SOME INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION MAY OCCUR DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO OF THE PERIOD OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS AND TIDEWATER VA...WHERE MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL SIMILARLY OCCUR...THIS TIME OFF THE WRN ATLANTIC. AS OVER THE ERN GULF COAST...KINEMATIC FIELD LIKELY WILL BE VERY CONDUCIVE TO BOTH LOW AND MID LEVEL STORM ROTATION AS MID LEVEL SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS TO AOA 90 KTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT STRONG POLAR INTRUSION...AND MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED BY OFFSHORE OBSERVATIONS...LIKELIHOOD FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED SEVERE ACTIVITY APPEARS REMOTE. ..CORFIDI.. 01/17/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 17 16:31:13 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 17 Jan 2006 11:31:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601171632.k0HGWkx5019813@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171630 SWODY1 SPC AC 171628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2006 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW PNS GZH 10 SSE TOI 20 WNW ABY 15 SW MGR 55 ESE AAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CHS 40 ENE CAE 30 SSW GSO LYH 25 SW MRB 35 W CXY 20 S AVP 20 WSW POU 10 NNW BDR 50 SE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW PNS 15 NNW GZH 25 NNW AUO 20 SE LGC 45 ESE VLD 25 SE OCF 45 SSW SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW CLM 35 ENE AST 40 E CEC 75 WNW UKI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN AL...SWRN GA...FL PANHANDLE... ...AL COAST ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE... AIR MASS HAS NOT ADEQUATELY DESTABILIZED ATTM AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT NOW SHIFTING EWD INTO WRN AL. LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK HAS YET TO SAMPLE A CG-STRIKE IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG WEDGE OF ASCENT IS MAINTAINING A NARROW...FORCED-SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER REFLECTIVITY CORES INTO SRN AL. VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE COINCIDENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT RACES EWD AT NEAR 40 KT. THUS...DOWNDRAFTS WITHIN THIS ORGANIZED LINE OF MOIST CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE/MIX-DOWN ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AT LEAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO SERN AL...SWRN GA AND MUCH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MIGHT ALSO OCCUR...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUSTAIN SHALLOW STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL NORTH OF THIS REGION GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND EWD INTO MORE OF FL LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM LIFT NWD. ...COASTAL NC INTO THE DELMARVA... VERY STRONG ASCENT AND EXTREME WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER OVER AND JUST OFF THE NC COAST IS NOT AS MOIST AS WITH THE SYSTEM LATE LAST WEEK. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION FAIL TO PRODUCE MUCH INSTABILITY. ANY MUCAPE PRODUCED IS ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN DEGREE OF FORCING AND STRENGTH OF WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE /80+ KT SLY LLJ/...A NARROW LINE OF MOIST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT MOVING EWD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE. ..EVANS.. 01/17/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 17 19:47:26 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 17 Jan 2006 14:47:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601171949.k0HJmxT1015261@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171946 SWODY1 SPC AC 171944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2006 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE SSI OGB 10 SSE LYH 35 W CXY 30 SSW AVP 20 WSW POU 10 NNW BDR 50 SE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 SSE PNS 30 SW DHN 15 NNE CSG 25 WNW MCN 35 SE MCN 25 SE OCF 70 WSW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 WNW BLI 35 ENE AST 40 E CEC 70 W UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN STATES THROUGH CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC... A LINE OF CONVECTION WITH NO DETECTABLE LIGHTNING FROM CNTRL GA SWWD THROUGH THE WRN FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF GA AND NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR WILL CONTINUE TO BE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S HAS ADVECTED INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA WITH 50S FARTHER NE. MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING MUCAPE TO AOB 300 J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TO IN EXCESS OF 70 KT TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TAKES ON A MORE NEUTRAL TILT AND BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD. SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR COULD BE TRANSFERRED DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN STRONGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM SRN GA INTO PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED. ...CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AREA... NRN PORTION OF THE LINE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WRN CAROLINAS HAS DIMINISHED OWING TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTING LACK OF INSTABILITY. SOME INCREASE MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN CAROLINAS AS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STREAM IS ADVECTED INLAND ALONG INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WITH MUCAPES EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 300 J/KG. POCKETS OF HIGHER MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING 80+ KT LOW LEVEL JET COULD BE TRANSFERRED DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE BANDS. HOWEVER...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERNIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..DIAL.. 01/17/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 18 01:13:12 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 17 Jan 2006 20:13:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601180114.k0I1Ek69007562@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180112 SWODY1 SPC AC 180110 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0710 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2006 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S CHS 35 WSW SOP 20 ESE LYH 15 NNE BWI 35 SSE JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CTY 10 WSW VLD 35 WNW AYS 25 SE OCF 40 SSW SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 WNW BLI 35 ENE AST 40 E CEC 70 W UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN CAROLINAS/SERN VA... EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS INDICATED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES...WITHIN VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. AS TROUGH CONTINUES EWD WITH TIME...AND TAKES ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT...WIND FIELD -- PARTICULARLY ALOFT -- SHOULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER. DESPITE THIS...INSTABILITY IS FOR THE MOST PART NONEXISTENT ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ATTM -- BASED ON EVENING RAOBS AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND CONFIRMED BY LACK OF LIGHTNING WITHIN ONGOING PRECIPITATION. WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS INDICATED OFF THE SC COAST...NWWD ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MAY ALLOW A VERY MINIMAL AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION -- PERHAPS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. GIVEN STRENGTH OF WINDS/SHEAR...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE -- EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF CG LIGHTNING -- THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 01/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 18 06:13:06 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 18 Jan 2006 01:13:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601180614.k0I6Eah1022247@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180610 SWODY1 SPC AC 180608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 AM CST WED JAN 18 2006 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE EWN 10 NE ECG 20 ENE NHK 10 SW ABE 30 NE MSV 25 SE RUT 10 W PWM 50 SE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW UIL 25 E AST 55 SW PDT 45 SSE SMN COD 30 S 81V 25 SSE CYS 25 SSW GUC 35 E MLF 45 WSW U31 35 W ACV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE/NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY NEWD...MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A BROADER/LESS-AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT -- ASSOCIATED WITH ERN U.S. TROUGH -- IS FORECAST FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION AND THEN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY MID MORNING...AND THEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ...MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND... LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST/SRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...THOUGH A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY OCCUR...SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY. ...PAC NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES... COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES THIS PERIOD...AND RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES/MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION -- PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ..GOSS.. 01/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 18 12:51:56 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 18 Jan 2006 07:51:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601181253.k0ICrQHG023081@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181251 SWODY1 SPC AC 181250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 AM CST WED JAN 18 2006 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE ACY 30 ENE ABE 35 SW ALB 25 SE RUT 10 W PWM 50 SE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW UIL 25 E AST 25 SW RDM 30 SE BNO 10 S IDA 50 SSW BPI 55 N PUC 25 ENE U24 40 SSE P68 45 WNW TVL 70 WSW UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE LWR 48 AS DEEP ERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT ENE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM FROM TROUGH COMPLEX NOW APPROACHING THE ORE/NRN CA CST. ...ERN U.S... LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT CHARGE SEPARATION/THUNDER ALONG LONG-LIVED PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND NOW CROSSING NJ. FRONTAL- TYPE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF/ INTERMITTENT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF INTENSE /80+ KT/ LLJ OVER THE LWR HUDSON VLY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. BUT POTENTIAL FOR TRUE SEVERE CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED. FARTHER W...SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ALOFT AND TIGHTENING OF MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE AS UPPER TROUGH ASSUMES MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT MAY PROMOTE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT UNTIL THAT FEATURE CLEARS THE SRN NEW ENG CST LATE IN THE DAY. ...ORE/NRN CA TO NRN GRT BASIN... VERY COOL /BELOW MINUS 30 C AT 500 MB/ AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY UPR VORT NOW JUST OFF THE SW ORE CST AS THAT FEATURE CONTINUES ESE INTO SRN ORE/NRN CA LATER TODAY. SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SUGGEST PRESENCE OF A SECONDARY IMPULSE MERGING WITH THE LEAD ONE INVOF 40N/128W. RESULTING FAST/DEEP ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION/STORMS ALONG THE ORE CASCADES/CSTL RANGES SWD INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN CA. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ALSO OCCUR E OF THE SIERRA IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SPOTS OVER SE ORE...SRN ID... NRN NV AND NRN UT LATER TODAY. ..CORFIDI.. 01/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 18 16:21:46 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 18 Jan 2006 11:21:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601181623.k0IGNEYX005002@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181620 SWODY1 SPC AC 181619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 AM CST WED JAN 18 2006 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW HQM 40 ESE EUG 20 NE AAT 25 WSW NFL 15 NNW FAT 30 WSW MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PAC NW INTO NRN CA... INTENSE MID/UPPER LOW NOW DIGGING ESEWD INTO WRN ORE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET NOW NOSING INTO NRN CA WILL LIKEWISE SETTLE SSEWD THROUGH THE DAY WITH AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS OVERSPREADING CENTRAL CA. MID LEVEL COOLING WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS AXIS AND SHOULD SUPPORT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND A FEW LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST. BREAKS IN CLOUDS IN WAKE OF PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT LOWER 50F SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE SAC VALLEY BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...UNDER -30C TO -32C H5 TEMPERATURES. RESULTANT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SBCAPE FROM 500-750 J/KG OVER THIS REGION...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MID LEVEL ROTATION WITH STRONGER CORES. THEREFORE...HAIL NEAR OR JUST EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY PERSISTENT UPDRAFT TODAY IN THE SAC VALLEY...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED. ..EVANS.. 01/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 18 19:37:53 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 18 Jan 2006 14:37:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601181939.k0IJdQQb026823@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181937 SWODY1 SPC AC 181935 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 PM CST WED JAN 18 2006 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W ONP 25 NNE MFR 40 S AAT 20 SSW NFL 15 NNW FAT 30 WSW MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SACRAMENTO VALLEY... CLOUD BREAKS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE HEATING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S. MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -30C EXISTS ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE LIGHTNING SO FAR HAS BEEN NEAR THE COAST WHERE INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER HAS RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE PROBABLE OVER THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL.. 01/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 19 00:23:50 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 18 Jan 2006 19:23:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601190025.k0J0PI5i025615@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190021 SWODY1 SPC AC 190019 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0619 PM CST WED JAN 18 2006 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW NFL 30 E TPH 30 SSW DRA 35 WSW NID 50 SSW MER 25 E UKI 40 SW MHS 40 E MHS 20 WNW NFL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA... DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO AND NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN THE SHORT TERM...STEEP LAPSE RATES NORTH OF STRONG JET WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT TRENDS HOWEVER SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO WANE. ...ME... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED ALONG LEADING EDGE OF WIND SHIFT OVER WRN ME. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCELS ARE BEING LIFTED NEAR 850MB WITHIN STRONG WARM ADVECTION LAYER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROVE EXTREMELY SPARSE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO SERN CANADA SHORTLY. ..DARROW.. 01/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 19 05:34:34 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 19 Jan 2006 00:34:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601190536.k0J5a1oV018034@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190527 SWODY1 SPC AC 190525 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CST WED JAN 18 2006 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ALS 30 NNE 4SL 70 WNW GUP 35 ENE GCN 10 SSW BCE 55 NW 4HV 45 ENE PUC 35 WSW CAG 35 NW 4FC 35 NW COS 20 ESE ALS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...4-CORNERS/CO... LATE EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING STEADILY SEWD ACROSS NRN CA INTO THE GREAT BASIN AS STRONGER HIGH LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD NRN AZ. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NORTH OF THIS JET WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION LATER TODAY ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION WILL FALL AS HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING. THIS SHOULD BE STRONGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO SPREAD EAST OF THE ROCKIES. ...PAC NW... ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL APPROACH THE WA COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT ONSHORE AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH COOLING PROFILES AND INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR LOW TOPPED CONVECTION. EVEN SO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR LIGHTING WILL HOLD OFFSHORE DURING THE PERIOD DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY. ..DARROW.. 01/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 19 13:05:36 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 19 Jan 2006 08:05:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601191307.k0JD71KN019619@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191303 SWODY1 SPC AC 191302 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 AM CST THU JAN 19 2006 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ALS 30 NNE 4SL 70 WNW GUP 35 ENE GCN 10 SSW BCE 55 NW 4HV 45 ENE PUC 35 WSW CAG 35 NW 4FC 35 NW COS 20 ESE ALS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN BRANCH OF THE POLAR WLYS ACROSS THE WRN GRT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD TO THE SRN ROCKIES BY EVENING. THIS IMPULSE WILL WEAKLY PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM AS IT BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z FRI. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD THE WA COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...FOUR CORNERS REGION... ELKO NV SOUNDING SAMPLED AROUND MINUS 32 DEGREE C H5 TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE HEART OF THE GREAT BASIN IMPULSE THIS MORNING. THESE STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD TO THE N OF THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC JET AXIS THIS AFTN. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING PEAK HEATING. HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE WLY UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES WILL ENHANCE LIFT. ...WA COAST... FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE ONSHORE AFT 06Z ACROSS WRN WA WITH GRADUAL COOLING PROFILES EXPECTED VERY LATE TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL LAG OFFSHORE OR NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD...LESSENING THE RISK FOR TSTMS FOR THE COASTAL AREA. ..RACY.. 01/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 19 15:40:27 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 19 Jan 2006 10:40:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601191541.k0JFfpCj018270@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191539 SWODY1 SPC AC 191537 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0937 AM CST THU JAN 19 2006 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER LOW NOW DIGGING SEWD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL AMPLIFY MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT OVERSPREADS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. MID LEVEL AIR REMAINS QUITE COLD WITH THIS FEATURE AND WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY...INCREASING COVERAGE OF MOIST CONVECTION INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. HOWEVER... BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS COOL AND DRY AND 12Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY CAPE ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES TO BE SPORADIC AT BEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALONG THE PAC NW COAST... ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH NWRN WA LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST. ..EVANS.. 01/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 19 19:45:40 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 19 Jan 2006 14:45:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601191947.k0JJl3oo026180@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191944 SWODY1 SPC AC 191942 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CST THU JAN 19 2006 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN US EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING WAVE...A SFC LOW IS PRESENT IN THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE FROM EAST TX EXTENDING NNEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 01/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 20 00:34:01 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 19 Jan 2006 19:34:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601200035.k0K0ZSsh031746@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200032 SWODY1 SPC AC 200030 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CST THU JAN 19 2006 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE 4-CORNERS REGION INDICATE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...ON THE ORDER OF 8-9C/KM...HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS APPEARS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITHIN MOIST CONVEYOR FROM NRN NM INTO CNTRL CO. DESPITE WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED EARLIER ALONG THE NM/CO LINE. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO THESE STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND CONCENTRATION OF LIGHTNING WILL PROVE TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT A PROBABILITY OF THUNDER. ..DARROW.. 01/20/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 20 05:40:37 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2006 00:40:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601200541.k0K5fwLw022125@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200540 SWODY1 SPC AC 200538 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 PM CST THU JAN 19 2006 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE PBF 40 NNW ELD 30 NW DEQ 25 S TUL 40 NNW BVO TOP 30 WNW CDJ MMO 10 NNE TOL 10 WNW CLE 35 W HLG 30 SSE UNI LEX 30 WNW BWG 15 ESE DYR 10 NE PBF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S 7R4 25 ESE MCB 15 SSE MEI 20 WSW SEM 30 N CEW 50 S PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID MS VALLEY... LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CNTRL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EWD ACROSS KS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL SPEED MAX INTENSIFIES DOWNSTREAM. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...MAINLY ACROSS MO/NRN AR INTO OH/LOWER MI WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM.../ENHANCED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE JET AXIS. 20/00Z NAM MODEL IS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM SERN TX INTO AR. ALTHOUGH FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THIS REGION WILL ALLOW LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN AHEAD OF FRONT INTO SRN MO WHERE SFC DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE 50S BY PEAK HEATING. LATEST THINKING IS A NARROW AXIS OF SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY NORTH OF JET AXIS WHERE STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE NOTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SRN MO IN PARTICULAR INDICATE NEAR SFC-BASED UPDRAFTS WILL EVOLVE WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH MUCAPES WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN 500J/KG. A FEW TSTMS OR DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD GENERATE STRONG WINDS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW/COLD FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH INTO ERN TX/LA...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION WILL SUPPRESS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LATE IN THE PERIOD PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW/MOISTENING MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST REGION. ..DARROW.. 01/20/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 20 12:54:07 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2006 07:54:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601201255.k0KCtaX9018102@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201252 SWODY1 SPC AC 201251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PBF 35 W HOT 10 SSW RKR 30 S GMJ 20 S CNU 25 SSW TOP 15 NNW FNB 20 SE DBQ 40 SSW JXN 25 E FDY 10 SSW CMH 55 ESE LUK LEX 30 WNW BWG 15 ESE DYR 20 N PBF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S 7R4 25 ESE MCB 15 SSE MEI 20 WSW SEM 30 N CEW 50 S PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SW KS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE ENEWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ESEWD FROM THE PAC NW TO THE CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES. A SURFACE CYCLONE IN NW OK THIS MORNING WILL DEVELOP ENEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING MID LEVEL WAVE...AND ALONG A L0W-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL MO/IL BY THIS EVENING...REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING NWD IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS E TX/OK/AR/LA...WHERE A PREVIOUS CONTINENTAL AIR MASS HAS MODIFIED TO DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE TX COAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS TO BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER-MID 50S ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU WHERE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW/MID LEVEL WAVE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR /MUCAPE VALUES LESS THAN 250 J/KG/...WITH SOME L0W-TOPPED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FROM THE WRN MO AREA ENEWD ALONG THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW. 40-50 KT L0W-LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION BASED NEAR THE GROUND...THOUGH THE SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AT BEST. FARTHER N...STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT SNOW BANDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NE KS ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA BY THIS AFTERNOON. ..THOMPSON.. 01/20/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 20 16:25:17 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2006 11:25:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601201626.k0KGQbw2003229@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201624 SWODY1 SPC AC 201622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1022 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE PBF 35 W HOT 10 SSW RKR 30 S GMJ 20 S CNU 10 NE TOP 35 SE SDA 20 SE DBQ 40 NNE FWA 25 S FDY 45 SW CMH 50 ENE LEX 50 SSW LEX 30 N BNA 20 SSW MKL 15 NNE PBF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S 7R4 25 ESE MCB 15 SSE MEI 20 WSW SEM 30 N CEW 50 S PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... COLD UPPER TROUGH NOW EXITING CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ACCELERATE AND DE AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES TO OH VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NERN OK ALSO MOVES RAPIDLY ENEWD AND PROGGED TO BE INTO WRN NY BY 12Z SAT. ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL OK TO SWRN TEXAS SWEEPS SEWD TO EXTEND FROM OH RIVER VALLEY TO TX COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. MODEST MOISTURE RETURN UNDERWAY FROM SRN PLAINS NEWD TO OZARK PLATEAU WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. WARM SECTOR INITIALLY STRONGLY CAPPED THUS ONLY ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING NRN MO WHERE STRONG WARM ADVECTION UNDERWAY TO N OF FRONTAL ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE OK LOW ENEWD TO SRN IL. BY THIS AFTERNOON SUFFICIENT HEATING ALONG WITH THE LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ENEWD TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR NEAR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OZARK PLATEAU. HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER WITH MLCAPES NO HIGHER THAN 100-200 J/KG. STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS AREA SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS STORM MOTION EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 40KT. HOWEVER UPDRAFT INTENSITY WILL BE WEAK LIMITING ANY SEVERE THREAT TO JUST WIND GUSTS. WHAT THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER OZARK PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE A LIMITED WIND THREAT EWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY THIS EVENING PRIOR TO BECOMING ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE INTO AREA OF EVEN WEAKER INSTABILITY. ..HALES.. 01/20/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 21 00:56:48 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2006 19:56:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601210058.k0L0wB8S013852@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210055 SWODY1 SPC AC 210054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE PBF 35 W HOT 25 E FSM 15 SSW SGF 25 SE SZL 20 SE IRK 15 SE MLI 20 SE RFD 40 S AZO 25 S FDY 45 SW CMH 50 ENE LEX 50 SSW LEX 30 N BNA 20 SSW MKL 15 NNE PBF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S 7R4 15 SE JAN 20 NNE MEI 15 WNW SEM 30 N CEW 50 S PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE AUS 40 NNE CLL 25 ESE GGG 35 WSW IER 25 NNE HOU 40 N PSX 45 NW VCT 25 SSE AUS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID MS VALLEY... LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY FROM CNTRL MO INTO NWRN AR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG THIS LINE DESPITE THE MEAGER INSTABILITY NOTED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS AND DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS...ON THE ORDER OF 100-200J/KG. IT APPEARS UPDRAFTS MAY ACTUALLY BE ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE SFC THUS ANY TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COULD BE HAMPERED DUE TO MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT ANY RATE...SQUALL LINE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SERN MO AND NRN AR BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING EAST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE INSTABILITY IS HARDLY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. ...GULF COAST... SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED BENEATH RESTRICTIVE LAYER OF INHIBITION AT MID LEVELS OVER SERN TX THIS EVENING. OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR A FEW UPDRAFTS HAVE INTENSIFIED AND PRODUCED LIGHTNING NEAR CLL...NW OF HOUSTON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT AND MAY AT TIMES GENERATE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BEFORE DISSIPATING CLOSER TO THE LA BORDER. FARTHER EAST...SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITHIN MOIST FEED OFF THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY. ..DARROW.. 01/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 21 05:35:47 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 21 Jan 2006 00:35:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601210537.k0L5b5j0017251@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210535 SWODY1 SPC AC 210533 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S PSX 10 W SAT 20 WNW JCT 35 NNE SJT 60 SW SPS 15 WSW ADM 30 NE PRX 30 ESE ELD 20 NNW JAN 30 E MEI 35 NNW MGM 15 E LGC 25 SSW MCN 10 SSW ABY 55 SE PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF COAST STATES... SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF EJECTING UPPER SPEED MAX. THIS WILL FORCE SFC FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WHILE SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED FARTHER WEST ALONG TRAILING BOUNDARY ALONG THE TX COAST LATE. IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST REGION BEFORE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO FOCUS MUCH FARTHER WEST IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT APPEARS DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED EARLY IN THE PERIOD JUST OFF THE LA COAST INTO SRN MS. WITH TIME WARM ADVECTION IN RESPONSE TO NM/NRN MEXICO SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN TX. AFTER DARK LLJ WILL INCREASE OVER CNTRL TX AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE THAN ADEQUATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. PARCELS LIFTED NEAR...OR EVEN ABOVE 700 MB...WILL YIELD AT LEAST SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE. GIVEN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME...AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION MAINLY AFTER 00Z...THEN SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 01/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 21 12:47:06 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 21 Jan 2006 07:47:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601211248.k0LCmLGY002838@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211246 SWODY1 SPC AC 211244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2006 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE BRO 25 WSW HDO 35 SW JCT 30 ESE SJT 45 W MWL 30 WSW GYI 20 SE PRX 30 E ELD 40 ESE GWO 25 WSW GAD 40 E AHN 40 SW AGS 40 SW VDI MGR 40 WSW PFN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WAVE OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EWD TO W TX BY EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND EXTREME NW GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE OH VALLEY SYSTEM...AND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD GRADUALLY STALL BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES TX. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST WAA REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH TIME ACROSS E TX AND THE GULF STATES...WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE STORM THREAT. ..THOMPSON.. 01/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 21 16:25:13 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 21 Jan 2006 11:25:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601211626.k0LGQTkX016530@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211624 SWODY1 SPC AC 211623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2006 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE BRO 25 WSW HDO 35 SW JCT 30 ESE SJT 45 W MWL 30 WSW GYI 15 SSW DEQ 15 S PBF 45 WSW CBM 35 N MGM 25 SSE AUO 10 NNE MAI 40 WSW PFN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...EAST TX AND LOWER MS VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NATION TODAY...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NV/UT. THIS FEATURE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT... ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM EAST TX INTO PARTS OF LA/AR/MS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN AL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. ..HART.. 01/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 21 19:48:04 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 21 Jan 2006 14:48:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601211949.k0LJnItt013780@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211947 SWODY1 SPC AC 211945 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2006 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE BRO 25 WSW HDO 35 SW JCT 30 ESE SJT 45 W MWL 30 WSW GYI 15 SSW DEQ 15 S PBF 45 WSW CBM 35 N MGM 25 SSE AUO 10 NNE MAI 40 WSW PFN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL/EAST TX AND LOWER MS VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE SWRN STATES/NRN BAJA REGION...WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS AL/GA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...NOW OVER THE WRN GULF...WILL RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND SRN LA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NERN GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER FARTHER WEST FROM EAST TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY. SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM CENTRAL/E TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...ENHANCING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION. THUS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE TX COAST THIS PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/E TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 01/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 22 00:36:40 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 21 Jan 2006 19:36:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601220037.k0M0bs4R005548@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220035 SWODY1 SPC AC 220034 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2006 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E BRO 35 SW HDO 60 WSW JCT 25 SW SJT 25 NE ABI 35 WSW GYI 35 SW DEQ 30 NE ELD 45 WSW CBM 35 N MGM 25 SSE AUO 10 NNE MAI 40 WSW PFN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES... AMPLIFYING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER AZ/WRN NM INTO NRN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE S TX COAST NEWD THROUGH SERN LA INTO CNTRL GA WILL RETREAT NWD OVERNIGHT TO VICINITY OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COAST...NEWD ACROSS CNTRL MS/AL BY 22/12Z. 00Z BRO/CRP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A RATHER MOIST AIR MASS ABOVE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION. STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ OVERNIGHT WILL ENHANCE NWD TRANSPORT OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WELL INLAND. A CONCURRENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INITIALLY ACROSS SRN/CNTRL TX AND EVENTUALLY EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A STORM EARLIER OVER THE MIDDLE TX COAST PRODUCED SEVERE HAIL AND SOME THREAT FOR SIMILAR OCCURRENCES WILL EXIST WITH AXIS OF STRONGEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND NO HAIL PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED. ..MEAD.. 01/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 22 05:41:39 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 22 Jan 2006 00:41:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601220542.k0M5gpL9003729@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220540 SWODY1 SPC AC 220539 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2006 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE BRO 20 N ALI 45 NW BAZ 25 WNW SEP 50 NNW FTW 20 ESE ADM 45 WNW DEQ 30 WSW HOT 55 E LIT 15 WNW MKL 30 SSE CKV 45 NW CSV 20 SW TYS 50 NW AND 10 E AHN 40 ENE MCN 35 ENE ABY 25 NW TLH 55 WSW AAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER THE CONUS DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD. IN THE W...A REX-TYPE BLOCK WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE...WHILE FARTHER E OVER THE PLAINS INTO MS VALLEY... DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL MOVE EWD INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE NATION. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE TX COAST WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG INTENSIFYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO CNTRL OR NRN MS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY MORNING. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE INITIALLY OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...LOWER BRANCH OF COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK CIRCULATION WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD ZONE OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD OVER THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS. THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM N OF THE SURFACE FRONT SWD INTO THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR. DESPITE THE INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND RESULTANT MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPES OF 500-800 J/KG FORECAST BY AFTERNOON FROM ERN LA INTO MS AND AL. IT APPEARS THAT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF MIGRATORY...WEAK SURFACE LOW WHERE LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED. THE STRONGEST/MOST ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO OR TWO AND/OR MARGINAL WIND/HAIL...PRIOR TO AIR MASS SLOWLY STABILIZING OVERNIGHT. SHOULD IT BECOME APPARENT ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THAN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...PORTIONS OF REGION MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. ..MEAD.. 01/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 22 12:51:00 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 22 Jan 2006 07:51:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601221252.k0MCqCNo031837@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221250 SWODY1 SPC AC 221249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE BRO 30 WSW ALI 20 S JCT 30 WSW ABI 45 WSW SPS 25 NNE SPS 20 SW MLC 35 ESE FSM 25 ESE BVX 30 NE DYR 10 SE CKV 45 NW CSV 20 SW TYS 50 NW AND 10 E AHN 15 ENE MCN 30 NNE ABY 15 WNW MAI 40 WSW PFN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER W TX THIS MORNING WILL EJECT ENEWD AROUND THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST...AND IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SWD OVER CENTRAL CA. THE W TX WAVE WILL REACH THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PERSIST ACROSS AL/MS/LA AND THE NW GULF INTO TONIGHT. WAA NW OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS BASED AOB THE 850 MB LEVEL. THOUGH INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM AND MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG COULD SUPPORT A ELEVATED FEW STORMS WITH HAIL. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE BASED NEAR THE GROUND...ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR...THOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MARGINAL. ..THOMPSON.. 01/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 22 16:11:00 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 22 Jan 2006 11:11:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601221612.k0MGCCUI030250@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221609 SWODY1 SPC AC 221608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S PSX 30 S SAT 30 NE JCT ABI 25 NNE SPS 35 ESE FSM 20 N BWG 10 NNE HTS 20 W SSU 40 SSE PSK 30 W CLT 10 WSW CSG 45 SSW PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER IS FORECAST TO ROTATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY. SEVERAL WEAKER MID LEVEL IMPULSES ARE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM TX INTO THE TN VALLEY. THESE FEATURES WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM EAST TX INTO TN. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...MAINTAINING LIFT AND AIDING RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY SHOW ONLY WEAK LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGEST STORMS. GREATEST THREAT OF SURFACE-BASED SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL THIS EVENING. EVEN HERE...WEAK INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A CATEGORICAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. ..HART.. 01/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 22 19:59:52 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 22 Jan 2006 14:59:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200601222001.k0MK17Oq004674@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221958 SWODY1 SPC AC 221957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S LCH 15 E LCH 40 S ESF 20 WSW HEZ 20 NNE MCB 20 NE ASD 55 SE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S PSX 30 S SAT 35 E JCT 40 NW SEP 30 W ADM 30 E RKR 25 ESE FLP 20 NNW BWG 35 NNE CRW 25 ENE SSU 35 SW GSO 20 SW GSP 10 WSW AUO 45 SSW PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN/SERN LA INTO PARTS OF FAR SRN MS... ...SYNOPSIS... EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WAVY BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM FAR ERN KY WSWWD TO NRN MS AND THEN SSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL MS TO SWRN LA AND THE UPPER TX COASTAL AREA TO A SURFACE LOW LOCATED EAST OF PSX. IN ADDITION...A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE EXTENDED FROM THE NWRN GULF /S OF LA/ NWD TO SOUTH CENTRAL LA/SWRN MS WHERE IT INTERSECTED THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TROUGH HAD STARTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVED ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...OVERALL LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED TROUGHS WITHIN SWLY FLOW FROM THE WRN GULF TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEWD FROM ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY. ...SRN LA/PARTS OF SRN MS... SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S/ WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN FURTHER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG EXPECTED ACROSS SERN LA TO FAR SRN MS. MODIFIED RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THESE CONDITIONS SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE CONFLUENT ZONE AND/OR AHEAD OF THE PSX SURFACE LOW/ATTENDANT BAROCLINIC ZONE WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURE. THUS... HAVE INCREASED THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES/ADDED A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SRN/SERN LA INTO FAR SRN MS. MODIFIED AREA VAD DATA WITH CURRENT SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INDICATED 0-3 KM SRH VALUES TO AROUND 300 M2/S2 TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO A THREAT FOR WINDS AND/OR HAIL. WEAKER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FARTHER N INTO NERN MS/NWRN AL AND ALSO WWD ACROSS ERN TX SUGGESTS THESE REGIONS WILL HAVE A SMALLER PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 01/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 23 05:18:36 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2006 00:18:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060123051945.431098B366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230517 SWODY1 SPC AC 230515 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SW HUM 40 WNW JAN 15 SSW TUP 35 SSW CSV 20 NE HSS 25 NNW DAN 60 SSE WAL ...CONT... 45 ENE SGJ 60 SSW CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY A REX-TYPE BLOCK INTO THE W AND THE INTENSIFICATION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SERN STATES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST WILL SHIFT EWD TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA BY TUESDAY MORNING. ...CNTRL GULF COAST STATES INTO CAROLINAS... PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING INITIALLY FROM THE ERN TN VALLEY INTO MS/AL WITHIN REGION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY. INFLUX OF MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER PRECIPITATION SHIELD. FARTHER TO THE E IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...INCREASINGLY SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EFFECTIVE ERODE PIEDMONT FRONT WITH AIR MASS DESTABILIZING FROM ERN GA NWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SEPARATE AREA OF TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WELL IN ADVANCE OF PRIMARY FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THIS COASTAL AREA WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPES OF 500-800 J/KG. FORECAST WIND PROFILES INDICATE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED. THEREFORE...NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED. ..MEAD.. 01/23/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 23 12:58:07 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2006 07:58:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060123125918.414268B366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231257 SWODY1 SPC AC 231255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE SGJ 60 SSW CTY ...CONT... 80 SW HUM 30 WSW JAN 20 NNW CBM 30 WNW RMG 20 S AVL 20 SSW DAN 60 SSE WAL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A HIGH OVER LOW BLOCK IS EVOLVING OVER THE PAC COAST AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE PAC NW AND A CLOSED LOW FORMS OVER SRN CA. FARTHER E...A LOW AMPLITUDE SPEED MAX IS EJECTING EWD/ENEWD FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM SE MS TO SRN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SWRN FRINGE OF THE LARGER RAIN BAND ACROSS THE MS/AL AREA...WHERE REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL MUCAPE IN THE RANGE OF 250-1000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES...THOUGH STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO TEND TO WEAKEN BY LATER TODAY...THE COMBINATION OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS TODAY FROM SRN AL INTO S GA. ..THOMPSON.. 01/23/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 23 16:13:33 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2006 11:13:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060123161442.D1EBB8B381@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231610 SWODY1 SPC AC 231608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S HUM 40 S JAN 20 NNW CBM 30 WNW RMG 20 S AVL 20 SSW DAN 60 SSE WAL ...CONT... 45 ENE SGJ 60 SSW CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KY/TN. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...LEAVING A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF FRONT SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG...ALONG WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS SUGGESTS A RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...DESPITE WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FEW INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA/NORTH FL THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED...PRECLUDING A CATEGORICAL RISK AT THIS TIME. ..HART.. 01/23/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 23 19:58:57 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2006 14:58:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060123200006.32E958B39B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231957 SWODY1 SPC AC 231956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CST MON JAN 23 2006 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE SGJ 60 SSW CTY ...CONT... 40 SW BVE GPT SEM RMG HKY GSO 45 E ORF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO OK AND NM...AND REX FORMATION OVER PACIFIC COAST. AT SFC...WAVY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM COASTAL CAROLINAS WSWWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL GA AS WARM FRONT...WITH RELATIVELY COLD/STABLE AIR MASS OF OROGRAPHIC DAMMING EVIDENT TO ITS N. FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER CENTRAL AL IS DIFFUSE AND WILL REMAIN SO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY ENEWD ALONG NWD-DRIFTING PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SRN AL AND FL PANHANDLE. SECOND/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...AL AND SRN MS...MERGING WITH WRN PORTIONS OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. ...SERN CONUS... MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN SMALL BANDS AND CLUSTERS ANTICIPATED. AS BOTH THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC SUPPORT WEAKENS...CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL DECLINE GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH SO FAR N AND W OF AREA...LACK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC ASCENT INDICATES ANY SIGNIFICANT STEEPENING OF THESE LAPSE RATES MUST ARISE FROM BOUNDARY LAYER DIABATIC PROCESSES...WHICH ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THIS REGION. WITH HEATING INTO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG AND S OF SFC WARM FRONT - AND DEW POINTS HOLDING IN MID/UPPER 60S AS MOIST ADVECTION MIXING LARGELY COUNTERBALANCE ONE ANOTHER...MLCAPES UP TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH 0-6 KM LAYER SHEARS RANGING FROM AROUND 40-55 KT...HIGHEST ALONG WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE OBSERVED WEAKNESS IN LOW LEVEL WINDS...AND ASSOCIATED LIMITING OF HODOGRAPH SIZE IN BOUNDARY LAYER. SFC ISALLOBARIC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS FROM SRN GA AND NRN FL NEWD...WEIGHTED TOWARD AREA N OF WARM FRONT AND FCST TO SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE VEERING OF WARM SECTOR WINDS AND CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN BOTH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND IN CONVERGENCE. THESE OFFSETTING FACTORS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON...WITH MARGINAL PROBABILITIES CONCENTRATED MAINLY NEAR WARM FRONT WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED. A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LIMITS ...HOWEVER ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO MARGINAL/ISOLATED FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK UPGRADE ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 01/23/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 24 00:42:30 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2006 19:42:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060124004340.50A528B395@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240041 SWODY1 SPC AC 240039 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 PM CST MON JAN 23 2006 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE SGJ 60 SSW CTY ...CONT... 40 SW PFN 30 NW PFN 40 SSW CSG 35 E ATL 10 WSW CLT 30 NW SOP 60 E ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN STATES... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING ALONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SERN AL INTO FAR SRN SC...AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY ATOP STABLE SURFACE AIR MASS /REF 00Z ATL SOUNDING/ OVER CNTRL GA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS GRADUALLY DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS OWING TO WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING /WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NE/ AND COOLING AND RESULTANT STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER. A CONTINUED DECREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING AS AIR MASS STABILIZES FURTHER OVER SERN AL AND GA...AND LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FROM SRN SC INTO ERN NC MOVES EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC. ..MEAD.. 01/24/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 24 05:05:29 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 24 Jan 2006 00:05:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060124050640.7412D8B385@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240504 SWODY1 SPC AC 240502 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 PM CST MON JAN 23 2006 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 S GBN 20 SSW GBN 45 NW GBN 45 NE BLH 10 SSE EED 35 NNW IGM 65 W GCN 10 NE GCN 25 NNE INW 50 S DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER THE CONUS DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD. BREAKDOWN OF ERN PACIFIC/WRN U.S. AND CANADA BLOCK WILL OCCUR AS HIGH LATITUDE RIDGE SHIFTS EWD AND CUTOFF LOW / CURRENTLY OFF THE SRN CA COAST / BEGINS LIFTING NEWD IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SYSTEM NOW NEAR 150W/40N. IN THE E...LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD. ...AZ/NM... 24/00Z NKX/TUS SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING NECESSARY FOR ANY THREAT OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PRIMARY MOISTENING WILL OCCUR VIA ADVECTION OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE /I.E. ABOVE 700 MB/ FROM S AND SW OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE ERN PACIFIC. WITH TIME...EXPECT THIS FEED OF MOISTURE TO BECOME COINCIDENT WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE TONIGHT / AFTER 25/06Z / AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACTS ON THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ..MEAD.. 01/24/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 24 12:56:18 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 24 Jan 2006 07:56:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060124125721.D22AC8B38E@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241255 SWODY1 SPC AC 241253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2006 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 S GBN 20 SSW GBN 45 NW GBN 45 NE BLH 10 SSE EED 35 NNW IGM 65 W GCN 15 SSW GCN 30 S INW 55 ESE DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A REX BLOCK OVER THE PAC COAST...AND A DEEPENING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE MID LEVEL LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE ERN PAC. MEANWHILE...THE INTENSE MID LEVEL WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE EWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...AND SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE NERN OH/WRN PA AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO SRN NEW ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR...BUT THE THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM AT ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SMALL. FARTHER S...LINGERING MOISTURE/WEAK INSTABILITY NEAR THE SE ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING...THUS AN OUTLOOK AREA DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE NECESSARY. ...AZ AREA TONIGHT... AN INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER AZ BY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BE IN THE MID LEVELS...WHERE DESTABILIZATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY TONIGHT FROM SE INTO CENTRAL AZ. ..THOMPSON.. 01/24/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 24 19:44:35 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 24 Jan 2006 14:44:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060124194540.EBD7F8B379@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241943 SWODY1 SPC AC 241942 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2006 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW TUS PHX PRC 25 SE GCN 60 N INW 45 WSW GUP 65 WNW TCS 80 ESE DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...AZ/NM... UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT AND BEGIN EJECTING A CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF NRN BAJA... NEWD INTO EXTREME SRN CA. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS ACROSS AZ/NM WERE VERY DRY THIS MORNING...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON WAS STREAMING NWD FROM WRN MEXICO INTO THE SWRN U.S. AHEAD OF THE LOW. ALSO...LARGE SCALE LIFTING WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AS A 70 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX APPROACHES. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AFTER 05Z. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND... INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH LEVEL SPEED MAX IS PROGGED TO MOVE FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY COLD...LAPSE RATES FROM THE SFC TO 450 MB ARE EXPECTED TO STEEPEN TO 7-7.5C/KM OVERNIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING OF THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. THESE LAPSE RATES ...COMBINED WITH A MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG FORCING...MAY SUPPORT BANDS OF CONVECTIVE SNOW. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ..IMY.. 01/24/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 25 00:49:51 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 24 Jan 2006 19:49:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060125005056.E6A9E8B380@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250048 SWODY1 SPC AC 250047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2006 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW TUS 30 WNW GBN 35 NNE BLH 25 WSW IGM 50 WSW GCN 35 E INW 65 WNW TCS 35 S DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...AZ/NM... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL LOW 150 SSW SAN BEGINNING TO SLOWLY LIFT NEWD. PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS BEEN CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WHERE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL /I.E. -24 TO -26 C AT 500 MB/ IS CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ALSO...TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM THE ERN GULF OF CA COAST INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NRN MEXICO WHERE A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIR MASS IS BEING OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED ALONG THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. 00Z TUS SOUNDING INDICATES THAT LITTLE MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED FARTHER TO THE N ACROSS SRN AZ OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH AIR MASS REMAINING QUITE DRY BELOW 500 MB. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD...FURTHER MOISTENING/SATURATION WILL OCCUR...AND GIVEN THE MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALREADY IN PLACE... ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR A FEW TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 25/06Z. WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN VICINITY OF LOW CENTER...THE MAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH MOIST PLUME WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY NWWD AHEAD OF SYSTEM. ...PA/WV/NRN VA AND MD... A CLUSTER OF LOW TOPPED TSTMS INITIATING OVER CNTRL OH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC...100-110 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IN CONJUNCTION WITH RATHER STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...PRIOR TO DISSIPATION AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND LAPSE RATES WEAKEN. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION QUICK CESSATION OF THIS ACTIVITY...NO GENERAL THUNDER AREA WILL BE INCLUDED. ..MEAD.. 01/25/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 25 05:14:18 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 25 Jan 2006 00:14:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060125051524.526228B376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250512 SWODY1 SPC AC 250510 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2006 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 40 SSE GBN 55 E BLH 20 E EED 10 NNW IGM 50 NNE IGM 50 ESE SGU 30 NNW PGA 30 NE U17 20 S MTJ 45 ESE GUC 30 E ALS 40 N LVS 35 SSW ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD AS LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. SHIFTS EWD INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC AND NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW. MEANWHILE...CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SW OF SAN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD INTO WRN CO BY THURSDAY MORNING. ...FOUR-CORNERS REGION... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST / 25/12Z / OVER PORTIONS OF AZ INTO WRN NM AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING UPPER LOW ACTS ON MOIST CONVEYOR BELT WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY AROUND PARENT CIRCULATION. AS THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY OPENS AND ACCELERATES NEWD...ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS NRN AZ AND WRN NM...PERHAPS REACHING SERN UT AND SWRN CO BY TONIGHT. THIS THUNDER THREAT SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT OWING TO THE WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND LAPSE RATES OVER WRN CO. ..MEAD.. 01/25/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 25 12:57:46 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 25 Jan 2006 07:57:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060125125846.13FFE8B392@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251256 SWODY1 SPC AC 251255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 AM CST WED JAN 25 2006 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 10 S GBN 55 ESE BLH 30 W BLH 45 NE TRM 55 W EED 10 SSE LAS 25 S CDC 30 ENE BCE 30 ESE 4HV 20 SE GUC 40 NE ALS 45 WSW RTN 40 NNW ALM 15 SW ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... FLOW IS BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE ERN PAC AND A BREAKDOWN OF THE TEMPORARY REX BLOCK FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS EWD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SRN CA COAST IS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. ...AZ AREA... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER S OF SAN DIEGO...AND INVOF SE AZ WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. THE 12Z TUS SOUNDING REVEALED WEAK INSTABILITY BASED NEAR 700 MB...AND THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SPREAD NWD/NWWD THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT ALONG THE PATH OF THE EJECTING MID LEVEL WAVE...WITH THE RELATIVELY GREATER TSTM PROBABILITIES EXPECTED ACROSS SE AZ TODAY AND INVOF THE RIM THIS AFTERNOON. ..THOMPSON.. 01/25/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 25 16:27:51 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 25 Jan 2006 11:27:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060125162852.0C9B88B397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251621 SWODY1 SPC AC 251620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CST WED JAN 25 2006 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 10 S GBN 55 ESE BLH 30 W BLH 45 NE TRM 55 W EED 10 SSE LAS 25 S CDC 30 ENE BCE 30 ESE 4HV 20 SE GUC 40 NE ALS 45 WSW RTN 40 NNW ALM 15 SW ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHWEST STATES... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA IS BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...AND SHOULD BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 26/12Z. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BAND OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF AZ/WESTERN NM...AS WELL AS PARTS OF SOUTHERN UT/CO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THIS AREA. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY. ELSEWHERE...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ..HART.. 01/25/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 25 20:04:23 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 25 Jan 2006 15:04:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060125200526.BE2888B392@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 252002 SWODY1 SPC AC 252001 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0201 PM CST WED JAN 25 2006 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S FHU PHX PRC IGM 30 NNW EED 35 S LAS LAS SGU BCE 30 ESE 4HV MTJ 40 NE ALS 45 WSW RTN 40 NNW ALM ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER CONUS FEATURES TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE ATLANTIC COAST...RIDGE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS GREAT PLAINS...AND TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE PACIFIC COAST THAT WILL MOVE INLAND NRN CA...ORE AND WA THROUGH END OF PERIOD. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SRN STREAM -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY -- IS FCST TO CONTINUE EJECTING NEWD TO 4-CORNERS REGION BY 26/12Z. AT SFC...STRONG RIDGING IN AIR MASS OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN WILL REMAIN OVER WRN GULF...PRECLUDING SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING E OF ROCKIES. ...SWRN CONUS... WRN EDGE OF TSTM THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD IN CONCURRENCE WITH POSITION OF ERN EDGE OF DRY SLOT. GEN THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN CONCENTRATED IN BROAD WAA CONVEYOR WHICH WILL ARC FROM DISTANT SERN QUADRANT OF CYCLONE NWD AND NWWD TOWARD NERN PORTION OF COLD CORE REGION. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE IN THIS CORRIDOR...AS SAMPLED BY LATEST PW PROFILES DERIVED VIA GPS...WHICH INDICATE AROUND .75 INCH OVER SERN AZ/SWRN NM AND MORE THAN DOUBLING OF PW TO NEARLY .5 INCH OVER NWRN NM DURING PAST 6 HOURS. THIS MOISTENING -- ALONG WITH WEAK STEEPENING OF LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM DIURNAL/DIABATIC AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT CONTRIBUTORS -- WILL SUPPORT MUCAPES UP TO ABOUT 300 J/KG. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN EPISODIC/CLUSTERED THUNDER ALREADY OBSERVED TODAY IN THIS CORRIDOR. TSTMS COVERAGE GENERALLY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER DARK AS PARENT TROUGH WEAKENS AND SFC HEATING IS LOST. FARTHER SE INVOF RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SW TX...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MIGHT OCCUR BY END OF PERIOD. SUBTROPICAL STREAM PERTURBATION NOW AIDING TSTM FORMATION OVER W-CENTRAL MEX HIGHLANDS -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH INFLUX OF LOW-MIDLEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE -- WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL MEX OVERNIGHT. ZONE OF STRONGEST ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED MUCAPES UP TO AROUND 100 J/KG AS FAR NE AS TX/MEX BORDERLANDS. HOWEVER...LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL GULF MOISTURE AND STABILITY IN LOW LEVELS PRECLUDES GEN TSTM OUTLOOK ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 01/25/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 26 00:14:12 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 25 Jan 2006 19:14:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060126001516.7670F8B381@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260012 SWODY1 SPC AC 260010 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0610 PM CST WED JAN 25 2006 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW DUG 60 NW SAD 45 SE PRC 50 ENE IGM 55 S SGU 15 NNE SGU 50 SSE U24 U28 MTJ 45 NNE DRO 4SL 50 NW TCS 55 SSE DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FOUR CORNERS... MUCH OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA IS ELEVATED ABOVE SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER... SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ON SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER... LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW IS PROVIDING FORCING AND FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER COLORADO THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO INITIAL NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...AND UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UTAH/WESTERN COLORADO. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING HOW LONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST. AS STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING PROGRESSES DEEPER INTO COOLER LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN GREAT BASIN...MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. NOCTURNAL COOLING SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL ALSO INCREASE IN INFLUENCE ...AND IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 26/06Z...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 02-03Z. ...LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES... IN WAKE OF AMPLIFIED EASTERN U.S. TROUGH...BROAD SURFACE RIDGE HAS STABILIZED MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THUS...DESPITE FORECAST DEEPENING OF SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT...LACK OF RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ..KERR.. 01/26/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 26 05:12:20 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 26 Jan 2006 00:12:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060126051322.42D428B39C@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260510 SWODY1 SPC AC 260508 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 PM CST WED JAN 25 2006 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW BLI 30 N SEA 10 WNW PDX 45 SE OTH 30 W CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...MODELS SUGGEST SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...EMBEDDED WITHIN SPLIT BELTS OF POLAR WESTERLIES AND SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ...WILL SUPPORT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES BY EARLY FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW IS ALREADY LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN RESPONSE TO INLAND PROGRESSION OF INITIAL NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES. FORMER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN...AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY...AS LATTER FEATURE PROGRESSES INTO AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF ANOTHER NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES BY THIS EVENING. IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...CENTER OF BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS. THUS...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY/MOISTEN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...A SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE APPEARS UNLIKELY. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... COOL LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...EVEN IN PRESENCE OF SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK DIGGING UPSTREAM OF APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...INCREASING ONSHORE COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTENING AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. THIS MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS IT BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. IF 26/00Z GFS COMES CLOSER TO VERIFYING THAN THE NAM...LAPSE RATES/FORCING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO/WESTERN NEBRASKA COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN IF THIS OCCURS...THOUGH...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK/HIGH-BASED AND LIMITED ROUGHLY TO THE 19-23Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES...PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE/AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS TOO SMALL TO OUTLOOK AT THE PRESENT TIME. ..KERR.. 01/26/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 26 12:56:20 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 26 Jan 2006 07:56:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060126125716.CD1828B381@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261253 SWODY1 SPC AC 261251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST THU JAN 26 2006 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 40 NNE HQM 30 ENE AST 40 WNW SLE 35 W ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TIME AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES E OF NEW ENGLAND...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY...AND A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN CO THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 48 N AND 135 W WILL MOVE INLAND OVER WA/ORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL BUOYANCY EXISTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WRN CO TROUGH...AS WELL AS OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A SRN STREAM TROUGH THAT IS MOVING NEWD. STILL...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH TIME AS BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE AWAY FROM THEIR ORIGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCES. LATE TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT INVOF THE BIG BEND...WITHIN A DEEPENING MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING NEWD FROM MEXICO. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF AN OUTLOOK AREA IN LATER UPDATES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA REVEAL SOME CONVECTION/VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS NEAR PEAK AMPLITUDE AND CONVECTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO FAR...THUS THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WA/NW ORE COASTS APPEARS TO BE QUITE MARGINAL THIS EVENING. ..THOMPSON.. 01/26/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 26 16:20:56 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 26 Jan 2006 11:20:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060126162154.66A1F8B396@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261619 SWODY1 SPC AC 261619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1019 AM CST THU JAN 26 2006 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CLM 35 SSW OLM 40 NW SLE 30 WNW ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TIME AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES E OF NEW ENGLAND...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY...AND A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN CO THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 48 N AND 135 W WILL MOVE INLAND OVER WA/ORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL BUOYANCY EXISTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WRN CO TROUGH...AS WELL AS OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A SRN STREAM TROUGH THAT IS MOVING NEWD. STILL...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH TIME AS BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE AWAY FROM THEIR ORIGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCES. LATE TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT INVOF THE BIG BEND...WITHIN A DEEPENING MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING NEWD FROM MEXICO. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF AN OUTLOOK AREA IN LATER UPDATES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA REVEAL SOME CONVECTION/VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS NEAR PEAK AMPLITUDE AND CONVECTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO FAR...THUS THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WA/NW OREGON COASTS APPEARS TO BE QUITE MARGINAL THIS EVENING. ..AFWA.. 01/26/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 26 16:59:06 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 26 Jan 2006 11:59:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060126170004.2628E8B397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261657 SWODY1 SPC AC 261619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1019 AM CST THU JAN 26 2006 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CLM 35 SSW OLM 40 NW SLE 30 WNW ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TIME AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES E OF NEW ENGLAND...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY...AND A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN CO THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 48 N AND 135 W WILL MOVE INLAND OVER WA/ORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL BUOYANCY EXISTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WRN CO TROUGH...AS WELL AS OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A SRN STREAM TROUGH THAT IS MOVING NEWD. STILL...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH TIME AS BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE AWAY FROM THEIR ORIGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCES. LATE TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT INVOF THE BIG BEND...WITHIN A DEEPENING MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING NEWD FROM MEXICO. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF AN OUTLOOK AREA IN LATER UPDATES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA REVEAL SOME CONVECTION/VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS NEAR PEAK AMPLITUDE AND CONVECTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO FAR...THUS THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WA/NW OREGON COASTS APPEARS TO BE QUITE MARGINAL THIS EVENING. ..AFWA.. 01/26/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 26 19:42:57 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 26 Jan 2006 14:42:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060126194354.D49598B395@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261941 SWODY1 SPC AC 261941 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 0141 PM CST THU JAN 26 2006 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CLM 25 N OLM 25 SSW PDX 35 NNE OTH 30 W OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES E OF NEW ENGLAND. AN UPSTREAM RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY...AND A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN CO THIS AFTERNOON WILL EJECT NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF WA/OREGON WILL MOVE INLAND OVER WA/ORE LATER THIS EVENING. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL BUOYANCY EXISTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NRN CO TROUGH...AS WELL AS OVER OK/TX WITH A SRN STREAM TROUGH THAT IS MOVING NEWD. STILL...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH TIME AS BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE AWAY FROM THEIR ORIGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL LIGHTNING DATA REVEAL SOME CONVECTION/VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE, BUT AS COLDER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS MOVE ONSHORE THE LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..AFWA.. 01/26/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 26 19:53:35 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 26 Jan 2006 14:53:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060126195431.6F6728B395@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261952 SWODY1 SPC AC 261941 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 0141 PM CST THU JAN 26 2006 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CLM 25 N OLM 25 SSW PDX 35 NNE OTH 30 W OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES E OF NEW ENGLAND. AN UPSTREAM RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY...AND A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN CO THIS AFTERNOON WILL EJECT NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF WA/OREGON WILL MOVE INLAND OVER WA/ORE LATER THIS EVENING. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL BUOYANCY EXISTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NRN CO TROUGH...AS WELL AS OVER OK/TX WITH A SRN STREAM TROUGH THAT IS MOVING NEWD. STILL...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH TIME AS BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE AWAY FROM THEIR ORIGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL LIGHTNING DATA REVEAL SOME CONVECTION/VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE, BUT AS COLDER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS MOVE ONSHORE THE LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..AFWA.. 01/26/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 27 00:26:01 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 26 Jan 2006 19:26:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060127002658.D7B0F8B394@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270025 SWODY1 SPC AC 270024 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 PM CST THU JAN 26 2006 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BLI SEA EUG 35 ENE 4BK 30 WSW CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... CONVECTIVE BAND FOCUSED ON LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING INLAND. TO THIS POINT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS OFF THE OREGON COAST...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE WAS MAXIMIZED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING INLAND OF PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS EVENING...IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ONSHORE COMPONENT TO FLOW AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND...STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION. THIS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. ...EAST OF THE ROCKIES... THOUGH CENTER OF BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT INTO THE EASTERN STATES OVERNIGHT...RIDGING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL IMPEDE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM SLOWLY MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND SHOULD PRECLUDE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN PLAINS. ..KERR.. 01/27/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 27 05:36:56 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 27 Jan 2006 00:36:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060127053755.51D808B396@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270536 SWODY1 SPC AC 270534 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CST THU JAN 26 2006 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SE CRP 45 WNW LRD ...CONT... 65 W MRF 10 SW MRF FST MAF 20 WSW LBB AMA 40 W GAG DDC HLC CNK 10 SE STJ 40 N COU 30 N FAM POF HOT GGG 10 SE LFK 55 SSE BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BLI SEA EUG 35 ENE 4BK 30 WSW CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... STRONG POLAR JET EXTENDS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST PACIFIC THROUGH THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD PROPAGATION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SERIES OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE... INCLUDING ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MIGRATING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN INDICATING THIS FEATURE WILL SPLIT AS IT CONTINUES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY TODAY. STRONGER SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS PROGGED INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY EARLY THIS EVENING... AS AN IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. THESE FEATURES MAY COME IN PHASE AS THEY BEGIN TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN...MODELS SUGGEST INITIATION OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UNTIL THIS OCCURS...SURFACE RIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND GULF COASTAL AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION AND INHIBIT MOISTURE RETURN TO THE PLAINS. THIS APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTENING SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR BY LATE TONIGHT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST INCREASING RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS. ...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES... BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AT LEAST THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 50S BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. RELATIVELY WARM LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE WILL CAP MOIST LAYER...BUT ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS TO SUPPORT WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY EXCEED 500 J/KG IN NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG WEAK DRY LINE...ROUGHLY FROM THE SAN ANGELO THROUGH CHILDRESS AREA...WHERE SHEAR PROFILES ALONG 30+ KT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. FORCING TO WEAKEN INHIBITION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT AS SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK NOSES ACROSS THE DRY LINE BY THE 27/21-23Z TIME FRAME...THERE APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR AT LEAST VERY ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE DARK. NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...MOSTLY ABOVE COOL/ STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER. MID-LEVEL FORCING/COOLING WITH APPROACH OF POLAR TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY STEEPEN LAPSE RATES/WEAK INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS THE 28/03-06Z TIME...BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND SPREADING EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE IN FAVORABLE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR RISK OF AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... AFTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DIMINISHES TODAY IN WAKE OF INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...FORCING/DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SYSTEM COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN BY 12Z SATURDAY. ..KERR.. 01/27/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 27 12:37:37 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 27 Jan 2006 07:37:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060127123830.240188B39B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271236 SWODY1 SPC AC 271234 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2006 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE CRP 65 NW LRD ...CONT... 85 WSW MRF 35 NNW MRF 25 SSE INK 25 NNW MAF 20 WSW LBB 25 SE BGD 40 NW GAG DDC RSL CNK 10 SE STJ 40 N COU 30 N FAM POF HOT 30 SSW SHV 45 WNW POE 55 SSE BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BLI SEA EUG 35 ENE 4BK 30 WSW CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS... SERIES OF TROUGHS CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY IN THE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS CONUS. WHILE ONE IMPULSE MOVES EWD THRU WRN GREAT LAKES THE NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM IS NOW ONSHORE WRN U.S. THIS TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES EWD EMERGING INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS BY LATER TONIGHT. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH FROM THE WEST. BY 12Z SAT SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED WRN KS WITH MID LEVEL COOLING AND DPVA SPREADING EWD ACROSS KS/OK AND NWRN TX. SLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO 30-40KT SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TX AND OK WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING THRU THE 50S IN TX AND INTO LOW 50S WRN OK TONIGHT. ALSO THE SUBTROPICAL JET FROM THE ERN PAC ACROSS NRN MEXICO IS SPREADING CONSIDERABLE MID/UPR LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY INTO TX AS NOTED BY THE LIGHTNING STRIKES BOTH TX BIG BEND AND ACROSS SRN BAJA CA. INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT PORTIONS OF SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN BY THEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. LIMITED INSOLATION WITH THE EXPECTED EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVELS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WRN TX SHOULD BE ELEVATED. UPDRAFT STRENGTH WILL ALSO BE LIMITED BY MLCAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG. STRONGER PRIMARILY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FROM NWRN TX EXTENDING NEWD INTO SERN KS AS TROUGH AND MID LEVEL COOLING SHIFTS EWD INTO PLAINS. WITH MLCAPES REMAINING AOB 500 J/KG EXPECT ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED ELEVATED HAIL EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ..HALES.. 01/27/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 27 16:27:00 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 27 Jan 2006 11:27:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060127162752.530E08B3A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271625 SWODY1 SPC AC 271623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2006 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WSW MRF 35 NNW MRF 25 SSE INK 25 NNW MAF 20 WSW LBB 25 SE BGD 25 SSE LBL 50 E LAA 15 WNW MCK 25 SW HSI STJ 40 SE CDJ 10 N TBN 15 SW HRO 15 ESE DEQ 15 SW GGG 30 ESE UTS 30 E GLS ...CONT... 80 SE CRP 30 ENE CRP 20 WNW NIR 15 SSE COT 45 W LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BLI SEA EUG 35 ENE 4BK 30 WSW CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG NW FLOW OVER CA THIS MORNING...AND W.V. SATELLITE DATA ...SUGGEST THAT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER KLAS IS A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED AND WILL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AS IT CONTINUES ESE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE SRN HI PLNS BY 12Z SATURDAY... WHERE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM WILL ENHANCE SLY COMPONENT TO MID/UPR LVL FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES. THIS SHOULD HELP MOISTEN THE MID/ UPR LEVELS AS SUBTROPICAL STREAM NOW OVER NW MEXICO BUCKLES NE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS. ..SRN/CNTRL PLNS... LEE CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR LATER TODAY/TONIGHT OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS WITH APPROACH OF NEVADA UPR TROUGH. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW OVER THE SRN PLNS. NEAR-SURFACE TRAJECTORIES WILL...HOWEVER...REMAIN OUT OF GULF CST/SERN STATES SURFACE RIDGE. STRATOCU FIELD OVER THE GULF...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS AIR MASS IS STILL PARTIALLY MODIFIED POLAR IN CHARACTER. THUS...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SRN PLNS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DEVELOPING LLJ WILL NEVERTHELESS ADVECT SEASONABLY MOIST AIR ACROSS W CNTRL TX INTO MUCH OF OK INTO KS. AMPLIFICATION OF WRN TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE AXIS TO DEVELOP A BIT FARTHER W COMPARED TO SIMILAR RECENT SYSTEMS. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH UPR TROUGH...AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY CLOUD LAYER FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM CNTRL TX NNE INTO MUCH OF OK/KS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DEGREE OF CLOUD LAYER INSTABILITY LIKELY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED /AOB 750 J PER KG/. THIS MAY...HOWEVER...PROVE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD A FEW UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. A SEPARATE AREA OF STORMS MAY FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER WRN KS...IN EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING TROUGH. FARTHER S...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO FORM IN SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT CLOSER TO THE SUBTROPICAL JET IN SRN/S CNTRL TX...ALTHOUGH WARMER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY LESSEN CHANCE FOR HAIL. ..CORFIDI.. 01/27/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 27 19:54:30 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 27 Jan 2006 14:54:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060127195522.B45518B366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271952 SWODY1 SPC AC 271951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2006 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 10 WSW MAF 20 E PVW 30 NNE BGD 40 WSW GCK 15 SE ITR 30 SSW IML 30 SSE LBF 30 E HSI 30 SW LWD 20 NNW COU 15 SSE TBN 30 S HRO 30 W TXK 35 N LFK 20 SSE LFK 45 ESE GLS ...CONT... 50 SE CRP LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BLI SEA EUG 35 ENE 4BK 30 WSW CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... AN UPPER-TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SLIDE EWD TONIGHT SPREADING A BAND OF FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INTO NORTH TX...OK AND KS LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...A STRONG 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE REGION. IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM THE WEST...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN WEST TX...WRN KS AND SPREAD EWD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ASCENT AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM SRN KS SWD ACROSS OK INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...A MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO NOSE INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES REACHING ABOUT 50 KT LATE TONIGHT...SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WHICH SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN THE 08Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. ..BROYLES.. 01/27/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 28 00:18:44 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 27 Jan 2006 19:18:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060128001943.B1F3B8B367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280017 SWODY1 SPC AC 280016 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2006 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF INK 45 SSW LBB 45 WNW PVW 15 S SPD LAA 10 NNW ITR 15 E MCK BIE SZL HRO LFK NIR 25 SW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N UIL 25 N AST 20 NNE ONP 45 N 4BK 40 W CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...MODELS INDICATE VIGOROUS DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE... EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES...WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. SYSTEM ALREADY APPEARS TO BE TURNING EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND IS PROGGED TO COME INCREASINGLY IN PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE RAPID RETURN OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS STILL IN THE RECOVERY PROCESS FROM A PRIOR FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO THIS RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS RATHER WEAK. THIS IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH LOWER/MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS ALREADY PRESENT IN A TONGUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN/WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES TONIGHT. ...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES... CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL...BUT FORCING/ DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP EASTWARD TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST STORMS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUSED NEAR SPEED MAXIMUM...WHICH IS PROGGED TO NOSE INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY SOMETIME AFTER 28/06Z. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND AS STORMS BEGIN TO INGEST BETTER RETURN FLOW /REFLECTED BY 60F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS/ CAPE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT. MUCH STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH POLAR TROUGH/JET STREAK IS EXPECTED TO COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER MOISTURE RETURN FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS COULD SUPPORT INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION BY 28/03-06Z. HOWEVER...MORE NOTABLE INCREASE IN DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE 28/06-09Z TIME FRAME...FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG FOR PARCELS BASED IN MOIST LAYER ABOVE SURFACE/ NEAR SURFACE INVERSION. THIS LIKELY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS...WHICH COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE CRITERIA. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH...ENVIRONMENT ALONG COASTAL AREAS WILL BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL SOMETIME AFTER 28/12Z. ..KERR.. 01/28/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 28 05:51:08 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 28 Jan 2006 00:51:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060128055205.B7BEB8B380@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280549 SWODY1 SPC AC 280547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2006 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE PSX SAT 50 ENE JCT CHK END CNU SGF 15 WNW ARG 10 ENE DYR 15 ESE HSV 30 NE CEW 60 SSE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW MRF MAF PVW GAG 30 E DDC EAR SLB 30 SW ALO CGX FWA LEX CSV ATL CSG 15 SSW PFN 50 SSW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE BLI 25 W DLS 10 S MFR 50 WNW ACV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SRN PLAINS AND LWR MS VALLEY.... IMPULSES EMANATING FROM STRONG NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST PACIFIC POLAR JET ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS THEY MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY ADVANCING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND WILL COME INCREASINGLY IN PHASE WITH AN IMPULSE IN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM...AS IT ACCELERATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY...INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY 12Z SUNDAY. UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS SUGGEST DEVELOPING UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL SUPPORT INITIATION OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY TODAY. MORE RAPID DEEPENING MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW CENTER DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OZARKS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS...HOWEVER...AND THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOMEWHAT WEAK RETURN FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS CONTRIBUTING TO SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT. GIVEN STRENGTH OF MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...THE VIRTUAL CERTAINTY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTS AT LEAST A LOW SEVERE RISK ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. ...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES... IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT A BROAD SWATH OF CONVECTION/ PRECIPITATION COULD BE ONGOING FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT 28/12Z. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM...AND RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT VIGOR OF ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IN A BROAD BELT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS. AND...BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TORNADO/WIND THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A BETTER SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE PROPAGATION OF A STRONG POLAR JET STREAK AROUND THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION MAY BE MINIMIZED BY CLOUD COVER/ PRECIPITATION...AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WRAPPING INTO DEVELOPING CYCLONE CENTER. MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. A SQUALL LINE COULD BRIEFLY EVOLVE...BEFORE DEVELOPING EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WEAKENING EARLY THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. HOWEVER...IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ACCOMPANYING MORE RAPID DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW... DESTABILIZATION COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FARTHER TO THE EAST...THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE RISK THROUGH THE EVENING AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..KERR.. 01/28/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 28 12:26:14 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 28 Jan 2006 07:26:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060128122701.E95938B3B7@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281224 SWODY1 SPC AC 281223 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0623 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2006 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE PSX SAT 50 ENE JCT 35 ENE SPS 30 WNW CQB 35 NE CNU 15 NNE SGF 15 WNW ARG 20 ENE MEM 15 NNE CBM 15 SW MOB 70 SE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE BLI 25 W DLS 10 S MFR 50 WNW ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW 6R6 MAF 60 SSE CDS 15 ESE GAG 30 E DDC EAR SLB 30 SW ALO CGX FWA LEX CSV ATL CSG 15 SSW PFN 50 SSW PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY.... TROUGH CENTRAL/SRN HI PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED BY TONIGHT AS IT ROTATES ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY. WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS WILL RAMP UP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AND THE SURFACE LOW NOW WRN KS MOVES EWD AND DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY. CURRENT LARGE AREA OF NON-SEVERE CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM MO SWWD TO CENTRAL TX SUPPORTED BY A WARM CONVEYER AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET MAX ROTATES EWD ACROSS SRN TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY BY TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ABILITY OF THE AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING CONVECTION AS WIND SHEAR PROFILES AND KINEMATICS WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS TX INTO OK THIS AM WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO NEAR 60F AS FAR N AS THE RED RIVER NERN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND MID/UPPER 50S ERN OK. AS AREA ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION CONTINUES EWD...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TIME FOR HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS ERN HALF OF TX NWD INTO OK TO ALLOW MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON WEST EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DRY LINE BY MID/LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS OK/NRN TX. WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH THE EXPECTED ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON VICINITY I35 CORRIDOR ACROSS OK INTO NRN TX. WHILE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL THE 30KT OF SFC-1KM SHEAR AND FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS WITH HELICITIES 250-350 M2/S2 SHOULD LEAD TO SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY THREAT OF ANY SUPERCELL TORNADOES WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE. OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND INTENSIFIES VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES DEVELOP WITH 850MB JET INCREASING TO 60-70KT OVER LWR MS AND WRN TN VALLEY. COUPLED WITH STRONG AND DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER JET A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY MEAGER AT THE SAME TIME THE GREATEST DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM IS OCCURRING. THUS SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MUCH OF NIGHT BUT GRADUALLY TRANSITION PRIMARILY INTO A DAMAGING WIND CONCERN. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO WRN MS DURING THE NIGHT WHERE SOME INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE VIGOROUS WIND FIELDS. ..HALES.. 01/28/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 28 16:35:35 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 28 Jan 2006 11:35:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060128163637.ACDBA8B395@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281634 SWODY1 SPC AC 281632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1032 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2006 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S PSX 10 W BAZ 20 SSE FTW 35 WSW ADM 20 SE PNC 25 SE EMP 60 NNE JLN 15 ENE FLP 20 ENE MEM CBM 45 WSW SEM 70 SE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE BLI 25 W DLS 10 S MFR 50 WNW ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW 6R6 MAF 60 SSE CDS 15 ESE GAG 30 E DDC EAR SLB 30 SW ALO CGX FWA LEX CSV ATL CSG 15 SSW PFN 50 SSW PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER E TX/LA INTO PARTS OF OK/AR/KS AND THE LWR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... VEE-SHAPED UPR TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE ENE TOWARD THE MS VLY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS POWERFUL UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE REACHES THE NRN GRT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT THAT LOW NOW OVER N CNTRL KS WILL LIKEWISE ACCELERATE ENEWD...REACHING THE KCHI AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. COLD FRONT TRAILING S FROM THE LOW SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND SURGE E ACROSS MUCH OF MO/AR AND OK BY LATE TONIGHT...WHILE PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT MOVES E THROUGH E TX/WRN LA. ...SE TX/LA... OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED INTO A NE/SW BAND THAT ATTM EXTENDS FROM NEAR KTXK TO KAUS. THIS BAND SHOULD CONTINUE E THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE WEAKENING OVER WRN LA THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL HEATING AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK AS MAJOR PORTION OF UPR TROUGH PASSES BY N OF REGION. BUT SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO SHOW A WEDGE OF MORE STRONGLY MODIFIED GULF AIR PRESENT W OF WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING SSE INTO THE GULF FROM NEAR BPT. THIS AIR SHOULD SPREAD N INTO SE TX THROUGH THE DAY. COMBINATION OF MODERATE MOISTURE INFLUX /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S/ AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING MAY FOSTER INTENSIFICATION OF CELLS IN THE SRN PART OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEEP WLY SHEAR INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS ON SRN FRINGE OF EJECTING TROUGH...SETUP COULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH A COUPLE LEWPS/SMALL BOWS. A LOW PROBABILITY WILL ALSO EXIST FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND OVER SE TX AND PERHAPS SW LA. WHILE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS. ACCELERATION OF UPR TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW SE TX/WRN LA STORMS TO MOVE/DEVELOP E INTO MS LATER TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE WEAK /SBCAPE LIKELY AOB 250 J PER KG/...BUT COULD SUPPORT CONTINUATION OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO REGION FROM THE W. ...N TX/OK/AR/ERN KS... A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND PERHAPS SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES WILL EXIST LATER TODAY AHEAD OF LEAD COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL/SE KS SWD INTO NE TX. ACCELERATION OF BOUNDARY ...WHICH WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO RECONFIGURATION OF UPPER FLOW FIELD...WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS LEFT BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. SURFACE HEATING WILL BE LIMITED. BUT AS UPR FLOW VEERS...EXISTING WARM CONVEYOR CLOUD BAND SHOULD BE SHUNTED MORE RAPIDLY EWD. THIS MAY ALLOW A NARROW AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH SHARPENING FRONT. ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS THAT DO FORM LIKELY WILL BECOME SUPERCELLS...AS DEEP SHEAR WILL VARY FROM SSWLY AT 35 KTS IN KS TO WSWLY AT NEARLY 50S KTS IN NE TX. LIMITED SURFACE AIR MASS RECOVERY AND TIME OF DAY SHOULD OFFSET INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT TO KEEP SEVERE THREAT FAIRLY ISOLATED AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES E/NE INTO WRN KY/TN LATE TONIGHT. ..CORFIDI.. 01/28/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 28 20:17:40 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 28 Jan 2006 15:17:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060128201828.EEE128B318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 282016 SWODY1 SPC AC 282015 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE PSX 40 W HOU 25 E CRS 30 SSW MLC 30 WNW TUL 40 WNW EMP 20 N MHK 30 WSW FNB FNB 20 SE STJ 30 SW SZL 25 SSW FLP 25 NNE LIT 30 SSE GLH 30 WNW PIB 50 E BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE BLI 25 W DLS 10 S MFR 50 WNW ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W BRO 40 SW ALI 15 SE HDO 45 SSW SPS 45 WNW CNK 20 WNW OLU 30 WNW SUX 10 NNW SLB 30 ESE ALO 10 SW CGX 20 N MIE 25 NNW LEX 25 NE CHA 15 S AUO 45 WSW AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU... ...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY... A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A ZONE OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM MO EXTENDING SWD INTO EAST TX IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO LA...ERN AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WITH EMBEDDED CELLS IN THE LINE. AS THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES EWD BEHIND THE AREA OF RAIN...NEW CELLS SHOULD INITIATE FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER SWD ACROSS NE TX. WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...THE STRONGER CELLS COULD BECOME SEVERE AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO SRN AR AND LA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE...THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS A TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE HOUSTON-VICTORIA AREA...A LINE OF STRENGTHENING CONVECTION IS ONGOING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A POCKET OF INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 500 J/KG. AS A RESULT THE LINE MAY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS SE TX. 88D VWPS CURRENTLY SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT IN THE HOUSTON AREA. THIS COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TORNADOES ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES MORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. DUE TO THE STRONG LIFT WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH...THE LINE SHOULD EXPAND AND MOVE EWD ACROSS LA INTO SRN MS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY BECOMING MARGINAL DUE TO THE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. ...CNTRL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A DRY SLOT ADVANCING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL OK AND SCNTRL KS WITH CUMULUS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NE KS. AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND SFC DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 50S F LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW STORMS MAY INITIATE AND TRACK NEWD ACROSS ERN KS INTO SW MO. PROFILERS CURRENTLY SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 50 KT WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE CONVECTION IF DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT INITIATE. ..BROYLES.. 01/28/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 29 01:03:38 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 28 Jan 2006 20:03:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060129010427.36FF68B36F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290101 SWODY1 SPC AC 290100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE GLS 50 WSW POE 20 SW SHV 45 SW TXK 30 SSE DUA 20 E ADM 35 S CQB 30 WSW FNB 10 NNW FNB 20 NNW CDJ 30 N SGF 30 N RUE 35 WSW BVX 20 SW ARG 35 NNE POF 20 SSE MDH 50 ENE PAH 45 NW MSL 45 NNE MEI 30 NW MOB 55 SE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE BLI 25 W DLS 10 S MFR 50 WNW ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S PSX 35 SW CLL 30 SSW ADM 20 N PNC 15 NE CNK 20 W TQE 25 NNE FOD DBQ 25 SSE RAC 35 W TOL 20 NE LUK 25 WSW TYS 10 SSW LGC 45 WSW AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS/TN RIVER VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WNWLY FLOW SPREADING INLAND ACROSS THE PAC NW TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL MAINTAIN PROGRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER 48 STATES. SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER ERN OK...IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE ERN NEB/KS SHORT WAVE TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED REACHING THE LOWER OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS BY 12Z SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW NOW LOCATED OVER NERN KS WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS TOWARD NERN IL/NWRN IND OVERNIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP EWD AND OVERTAKE THE DRY LINE WHICH EXTENDED SWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO CENTRAL TX...AND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER OH TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS TO TX COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. PRIND SUGGEST THE COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LOCATED ALONG/BENEATH SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM FROM SRN/ERN TX ACROSS LOWER MS TO MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS HAS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. MODELS INDICATED WEAK DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR EWD OVERNIGHT AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /150-180 METERS/ AND FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVE OVER THIS REGION. IN ADDITION... STRENGTHENING LLJ ADVECTING GREATER MOISTURE NWD ACROSS LOWER MS TO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY WILL ALSO AID IN DESTABILIZATION. ...ERN KS/MO/IL/ERN OK/AR/ERN TX... GREATEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/DRY LINE WHERE A NARROW...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING/COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR A BROKEN SQUALL LINE TO LAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD INTO WRN MO/PARTS OF WRN AR THROUGH ABOUT 03Z BEFORE INSTABILITY BECOMES TOO WEAK TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS. ...LOWER MS TO LOWER TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS... DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS THESE REGIONS OVERNIGHT... INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG THE LLJ AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE REGION OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED LINE SEGMENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ON REGIONAL RADARS FROM THE MEM AREA SWD TO LA. GIVEN STRENGTH OF LLJ AND FAST STORM MOTIONS...STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS. FARTHER S...EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN LA TO FAR SRN MS WHERE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. ..PETERS.. 01/29/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 29 05:52:47 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 29 Jan 2006 00:52:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060129055337.EAABA8B366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290552 SWODY1 SPC AC 290550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE PSX VCT 30 SSE UTS 50 W JAN 35 SE GWO UOX 20 E ARG 35 ENE FAM ALN 25 N SPI 20 NW BEH 80 NNW ERI 15 E BUF 15 N AOO 30 SSW EKN 15 NNW HSS AVL 35 SE CLT 10 N GSB 50 SSE WAL ...CONT... 45 ESE SGJ 45 W PIE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. TODAY. A STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS AT 12Z SUNDAY WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD ALONG THE OH VALLEY TO NERN STATES. AN UPSTREAM TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO MI DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME OCCLUDED AS A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE ERN STATES. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH...WITH THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OH TO LOWER MS VALLEYS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST STATES... STRONGER FORCING WITH THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST REGION. THUS...FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A BROAD ZONE OF PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ACROSS SRN AL INTO GA/NRN FL...GIVEN MODEST LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ADVECTING INTO THIS REGION. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS LOW PROBABILITIES FOR A FEW DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. AT THIS TIME...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER TX COAST NEWD ACROSS LA TO PARTS OF NRN MS/NRN AL AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS RESULT IN BACKING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS TROUGH AND THE RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THESE AREAS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL TOWARD 12Z MONDAY INTO NRN AL. ...OH VALLEY... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-20 TO -24C AT 500 MB/ ATOP ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW LOW-TOPPED STORMS. VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT... BUT SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE. ..PETERS.. 01/29/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 29 12:43:42 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 29 Jan 2006 07:43:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060129124426.89E388B394@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291242 SWODY1 SPC AC 291240 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2006 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E SGJ 50 S CTY ...CONT... 30 SSE GLS 25 SW BPT 35 NNW LFT 30 E MCB 15 SSE GZH 40 N ABY 10 S AGS 20 S FAY 40 W HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N EVV MTO 45 SE MMO 20 SE AZO 10 WNW MTC 45 NNW CLE 30 NW ZZV 15 E LUK 40 N EVV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... SERIES OF POTENT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO TRACK THRU THE BROAD LONG WAVE POSITION OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SURFACE LOW SRN WI AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO CONTINUE NE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO FILL TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH LOSSES AMPLITUDE AND MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. UPSTREAM SPEED MAX NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ATTM WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT...DEEPENING THE MAJOR TROUGH POSITION OVER SCENTRAL U.S. BY MON AM. WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY LINE HAS MOVED WELL E OF COLD FRONT WITH ITS REMNANTS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SWWD TO SRN AL. INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY REMAINS INLAND FROM THE GULF TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLING AWAY TO THE NE AND MLCAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG AT BEST IN ADVANCE OF INSTABILITY LINE ERN GULF STATES...ONLY EXPECT GENERALLY WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY SERN STATES. CURRENT LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY IL/IN BORDER LINKED TO STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH COLD UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING THRU THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEWD THRU OH VALLEY THIS AM AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH LOSES AMPLITUDE AND ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. HAVE CONTINUED A LOW THREAT OF THUNDER CENTRAL GULF COAST FOR LATER TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX APPROACHES...BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW. SINCE FRONTAL ZONE WILL NOT MOVE FAR OFFSHORE...SOME THREAT FOR ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING AS MOIST AIR MASS NOW OVER MUCH OF GULF IS LIFTED BACK ACROSS STALLED FRONT. ..HALES.. 01/29/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 29 16:33:14 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 29 Jan 2006 11:33:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060129163359.F1D5F8B391@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291631 SWODY1 SPC AC 291629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2006 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW HTS 40 ESE BMG 15 S MIE 45 SE AZO 10 WNW MTC 30 WSW BUF DUJ 20 S PKB 45 WNW HTS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E SGJ 50 S CTY ...CONT... 50 SSE BPT 30 SSE POE 35 SW IER 35 WSW MLU 35 SSE GLH 25 NE JAN 25 E MCB 30 ENE MOB 20 NW ABY 15 SE AGS 25 S FLO 40 E CRE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE OH VLY SHOULD FURTHER DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO UPSTATE NY THIS EVENING...WHILE UPSTREAM SPEED MAXIMA PHASING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS CARVE A NEW TROUGH OVER THE OZARKS/ARKLATEX REGION. COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH OH VLY SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY E/SE ACROSS THE SERN STATES TODAY. LEAD BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY FROM NRN FL WSW INTO THE NRN GULF EARLY MONDAY. FARTHER NW...A NEW FRONT SHOULD EVOLVE LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE LWR MS VLY...AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING DISTURBANCE IN THE PLAINS. ...UPR OH VLY... LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON DOWNSTREAM FROM COLD UPPER TROUGH. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO SURFACE HEATING MAY COMPENSATE FOR WEAKENING OF UPR SYSTEM TO SPREAD THUNDER INTO WRN PA LATER IN THE DAY. A FEW CELLS MAY YIELD SMALL HAIL BEFORE ENCOUNTERING MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. ...SERN STATES/N FL... PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND HAS MOVED WELL E OF COLD FRONT. IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS FARTHER SE TODAY. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAK UPR FORCING SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE OF ASSOCIATED THUNDER ISOLATED. THE CONVECTIVE BAND MAY REJUVENATE SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY FROM THE NRN GULF ENE ACROSS NRN FL/S GA AND PERHAPS SRN SC AS AMPLIFICATION OF UPSTREAM TROUGH ENHANCES WARM ADVECTION ACROSS REGION. FARTHER W...AN AREA OF NEW CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDER MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF LA/MS...IN ZONE OF INCREASING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CLOSER TO APPROACHING TROUGH. LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY SEVERE THREAT DESPITE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG CLOUD LAYER SHEAR. ..CORFIDI.. 01/29/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 29 19:38:00 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 29 Jan 2006 14:38:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060129193845.C2D3E8B39D@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291936 SWODY1 SPC AC 291934 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2006 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE GLS 25 SE ESF 15 W JAN 30 NNE MEI SEM 25 SSW CSG 30 ESE MCN 40 ENE OGB 55 SSW HSE ...CONT... 35 E SGJ 50 S CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW PKB 35 WNW UNI 20 WSW CMH 35 SSE FDY 35 NNW MFD 45 WNW ERI 35 SW ROC 20 ESE ELM 35 SW AVP 20 ESE CXY 40 WSW MRB 20 WNW EKN 25 SSW PKB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN STATES... SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON IN SPITE OF A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. A CONFLUENCE ZONE AT THE SFC EVIDENT ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH CONVECTION LIKELY REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL US WILL DIG SEWD SPREADING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS TX INTO LA TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SEWD INTO LA AND MS LATE IN THE PERIOD. A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING ASCENT. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF INITIATION STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFTER DAYBREAK. ...UPPER OH VALLEY... A QUICKLY MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SRN OH AND WRN PA. THIS WAS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS NEWD...THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO PA BEFORE DISSIPATING BY EARLY EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 01/29/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 30 01:00:17 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 29 Jan 2006 20:00:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060130010103.27EB68B39D@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300058 SWODY1 SPC AC 300057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2006 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE AAF 25 SSE TLH 25 N GNV 30 SE OCF 40 W PIE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL BIG BEND REGION... AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME MAY BE SUPPORTED BY AN EMBEDDED WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX WITHIN MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THIS REGION INTO NRN FL/SERN STATES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE FL BIG BEND REGION LATER TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE EMBEDDED TROUGH TRANSLATES ENEWD TOWARD NRN FL. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS...WILL AMPLIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PORTION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS NEW ENGLAND HAD DECREASED ITS EWD PROGRESSION AS IT HAS BECOME PARALLEL TO WSWLY FLOW ALOFT. THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY ALONG THE LA COAST HAD BEGUN TO RETURN NWD DURING THE LAST 1-2 HOURS...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO INCREASE THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS SRN MS. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...A PRIMARILY WLY COMPONENT TO THESE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL LA/MS OVERNIGHT. WEAK WAA ALONG THE LLJ AXIS MAY SUPPORT AN AREA OF SHOWERS TOWARD 12Z. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR THIS REGION. ..PETERS.. 01/30/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 30 05:51:27 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 30 Jan 2006 00:51:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060130055213.D01F18B397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300549 SWODY1 SPC AC 300548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2006 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE BPT 15 NNE LFT PIB 20 NNW TCL 35 NNW HSV 30 SE CSV 35 NE TRI 25 NE ROA 55 E SBY ...CONT... 35 E PBI 40 SW APF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW UIL 25 NW UIL 20 SW AST 20 N SLE 45 NNW MFR 20 NW MHS 40 SE RBL 35 SW TVL 40 E SCK 25 W SCK 50 SE UKI 65 W UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO ERN TX...WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ERN STATES. VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /150+ METERS/ ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SERN STATES AS A STRENGTHENING 500 MB JET /90+ KT/ TRANSLATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING BY 12Z TUESDAY OVER THE CAROLINAS. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER NRN MS AT 12Z TODAY AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD EWD WITH THE LOW REACHING WRN SC BY 31/00Z. FAIRLY RAPID DEEPENING OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NC COAST...IN RESPONSE TO EVEN STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS /AROUND 200 METERS BY 12Z TUESDAY/. NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PAC NW TODAY TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/ STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INLAND ACROSS WRN ORE INTO NRN CA. ...CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST REGION... DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING AND KINEMATICS WITH THIS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH...WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE RETURN OF RICH MOISTURE TO INLAND PARTS OF THE GULF COAST/SERN STATES. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF...BUT MAY EXTEND JUST INLAND ALONG THE CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST REGION FROM FAR SERN MS EWD TO THE FL PANHANDLE...AND POTENTIALLY INTO SWRN GA. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF NRN FL...WITH CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ACTIVITY GENERALLY LIMITING DESTABILIZATION OVER THIS AREA. MEANWHILE...NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES EWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST STATES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO WARRANT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE INTO GA. IF GREATER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND/OR IS EXPECTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS...THEN PARTS OF THIS REGION COULD REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK. ..PETERS.. 01/30/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 30 13:02:32 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 30 Jan 2006 08:02:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060130130313.322898B367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301300 SWODY1 SPC AC 301258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST MON JAN 30 2006 VALID 301300Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE SSI 55 SW CTY ...CONT... 75 SSE HUM MCB 30 SW MEI 20 NNE MGM 40 E RMG 10 NW GSP 30 NNW SOP 15 NNW EWN 30 SSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE BPT 15 NNE LFT 55 E MLU 45 W CBM 55 WSW BNA 50 E BWG 50 ESE JKL 25 NE ROA 55 E SBY ...CONT... 30 ENE VRB 45 W FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW UIL 25 NW UIL 20 SW AST 20 N SLE 45 NNW MFR 20 NW MHS 40 SE RBL 35 SW TVL 40 E SCK 25 W SCK 50 SE UKI 65 W UKI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF CST RGN TO THE CAROLINA CST... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE BUT BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SPEED MAXIMA CROSSING THE PLAINS STATES SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPEN EXISTING TROUGH NOW NEARING THE MID/LWR MS VLY. THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE RAPIDLY E/NE TO THE NC CST BY 12Z TUESDAY. SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE SERN U.S. ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BE COMPLICATED BY EXISTING CONVECTIVE BAND AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE N CNTRL/NERN GULF OF MEXICO. PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND CONFIGURATION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF DEEPENING TROUGH...SUGGEST THAT RICHER GULF MOISTURE LIKELY WILL NOT SPREAD ANY FARTHER N/NE THAN THE IMMEDIATE GULF CST OF SE LA/MS/AL AND NW FL. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT DEEPENING AND EWD REDEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE WAVE NOW OVER MIDDLE TN LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. ...CNTRL/ERN GULF CST TO CAROLINAS... SATELLITE/RADAR DATA SHOW TSTMS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE LA CST. OTHER WEAKER/ ELEVATED STORMS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO FORM INVOF DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OVER WRN MS. THESE TRENDS REFLECT ARRIVAL OF STRONG ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF LEAD SPEED MAX...AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS TROUGH/FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREAD EWD. INLAND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. BUT STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MAIN SPEED MAX WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH /IMPULSE NOW OVER OK/ SUGGEST POSSIBILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OR TWO OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS OVER MS/AL/GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. COUPLED WITH 50-60 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP COULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND...DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE. ONCE DEVELOPED...FORWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE LINE MAY CARRY SEVERE THREAT EWD INTO SC AND SRN NC TONIGHT...WHERE MORE STRONGLY FOCUSED FORCING FOR ASCENT /ASSOCIATED WITH ASSUMPTION OF NEGATIVE TILT/ AND INFLOW OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE COULD MAINTAIN A MODEST DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. IN THE NEAR TERM...STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD LAYER FLOW WITHIN OFFSHORE CONVECTIVE BAND MAY SUPPORT FORMATION OF ONE OR TWO LEFT-SPLIT STORMS THAT POSE A GLANCING THREAT FOR HAIL OVER EXTREME SE LA. FARTHER N...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLDER ENVIRONMENT STORMS IN MS. ..CORFIDI.. 01/30/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 30 16:13:46 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 30 Jan 2006 11:13:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060130161427.EDF558B392@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301611 SWODY1 SPC AC 301609 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1009 AM CST MON JAN 30 2006 VALID 301630Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE SGJ 60 S CTY ...CONT... 25 SSE GPT 20 NW MOB 55 N MOB 40 WNW AUO 40 E RMG 10 NW GSP 30 NNW SOP 15 NNW EWN 30 SSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE BPT 15 NNE LFT 55 E MLU 45 W CBM 55 WSW BNA 50 E BWG 50 ESE JKL 25 NE ROA 55 E SBY ...CONT... 30 ENE VRB 45 W FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW UIL 25 NW UIL 20 SW AST 20 N SLE 45 NNW MFR 20 NW MHS 40 SE RBL 35 SW TVL 40 E SCK 25 W SCK 50 SE UKI 65 W UKI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN GULF COAST NEWD TO CAROLINAS... ...SERN STATES... A VIGOROUS COLD S/WV TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING LOWER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ESEWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OFFSHORE BY 12Z TUE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF TROUGH AND COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS AL/GA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED TO COASTAL REGIONS AL EWD ACROSS FL AND SRN GA. ADDITIONALLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO RELATIVELY WEAK WHICH WILL INITIALLY LIMIT AVAILABLE CONVERGENCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER AS CURRENT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DISSIPATES AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACH 70F SRN AL EWD ACROSS SRN GA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CURRENT BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW MOVING ACROSS WRN AL. REF MCD 90. BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT PARTS SRN GA/NRN FL WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES FORECASTED TO BE AVAILABLE. THE EXIT REGION OF A 100KT 500 MB WIND MAX WILL BE TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS NRN FL THIS EVENING PROVIDING STRONG UPWARD MOTION/DIVERGENCE. HAVE INCREASED THE TORNADO PROBABILITIES THIS AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. OTHERWISE THE PREDOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW EXPECTED TO BE INITIALLY MULTICELLULAR EVOLVING INTO POSSIBLE BOW/LINE SEGMENTS BY THIS EVENING UNDER THE STRONG FLOW AND UPPER FORCING AS THE TROUGH DRIVES EWD ACROSS AL/GA. A LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A MORE WIND DAMAGE CONCERN DURING THE EVENING AS STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS SC AND POSSIBLY SRN NC. ..HALES.. 01/30/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 30 19:58:44 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 30 Jan 2006 14:58:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060130195926.14FA58B366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301957 SWODY1 SPC AC 301955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CST MON JAN 30 2006 VALID 302000Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE BVE 20 WSW MOB 25 W GZH 15 NNW TOI 40 NNE ATL 10 NNE GSP 25 NNW SOP 15 NE EWN 45 SSW HSE ...CONT... 35 ENE SGJ 55 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE VRB 45 W FMY ...CONT... 50 SSW 7R4 35 NW ASD 25 SSE JAN 30 NNW JAN 25 SW LLQ 35 NNE ELD 10 SW HOT 15 NNW RUE 30 S FLP 10 WNW JBR 35 WSW DYR 10 E MKL 45 ESE MKL 15 SSW BNA 25 ENE BWG 30 WNW LEX 25 SE LUK 50 SSW CMH 10 SW UNI 15 N HTS 35 SSW HTS 45 SE JKL 20 NNW HSS AVL 25 WSW HKY 50 NNE HKY 30 SSW SHD 40 NE CHO 60 E WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW UIL UIL AST 25 WNW SLE 50 E OTH 40 S MFR 40 NNW RBL 45 SE RBL 35 N SAC 45 WNW SAC 20 S UKI 60 WNW UKI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/NRN FL... ...SRN AL/GA AND NRN FL... STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN THE RANGE OF -25C TO -30C CONTINUES TO SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. PREFRONTAL MCS AND STRONG WIND SHIFT PRECEED THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NRN GA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. TRAILING SEGMENT OF THE MCS OUTFLOW EXTENDS FROM SWRN GA...ACROSS SRN AL...AND THE WRN FL PNHDL ATTM. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF FORCING HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S F WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 55-60F. EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO INCREASE FROM SRN AL ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. NOSE OF 90-100KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST COINCIDENT WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG THE WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT. RESULTANT STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...SOME HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. ...SC/SRN NC... PREFRONTAL MCS AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT WILL DEVELOP EAST FROM NRN GA INTO WARM BUT RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS SC AND PARTS OF SRN NC. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY STRONG UPPER FORCING LATER TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD FRONT SURGES EAST. THIS CONVECTION MAY FORM INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS AND COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH A CHANCE OF WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR SHOULD EVOLVE FROM CNTRL SC ACROSS SERN NC LATER TONIGHT WHERE MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR/FORCING ARE FORECAST TO CO-EXIST. ...AR... CU/TCU HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH MID LEVEL COLD POOL OVER AR. DESPITE VERY DRY AIR MASS...LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT DUE TO VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ISOLATED TSTMS COULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINAL/SMALL HAIL CONSIDERING COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ..CARBIN.. 01/30/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 31 00:53:04 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 30 Jan 2006 19:53:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060131005346.3C99C8B397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310050 SWODY1 SPC AC 310049 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CST MON JAN 30 2006 VALID 310100Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S PNS 20 ENE PNS 45 NE DHN 15 N MCN 20 E AGS 35 ENE OGB 50 S CRE ...CONT... 40 NNE SGJ 45 SW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE GPT 25 E MOB 20 S AUO 25 ENE RMG 45 ENE CHA 20 SSW TRI 25 S BLF ROA 30 SSW SHD 40 NE CHO 60 E WAL ...CONT... 30 ENE VRB 50 W FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW RBL 35 NW RBL MHS 30 WNW LKV 35 E LKV 15 WSW WMC 40 WSW U31 50 NNW BIH 25 NW FAT 20 WSW MER 30 WNW SCK 25 SSW RBL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/NRN FL... ...SERN STATES... UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER TN/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS IT TRANSLATES EWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE/SRN ATLANTIC COAST. 100 KT MID LEVEL JET NOSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /150-180 METERS/ OVER THE SERN STATES. EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SWRN VA/NWRN NC WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD THROUGH NRN GA TO SERN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE. 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY LIMITING CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT MOVES EWD. BY 12Z TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE NC COAST...WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SSWWD OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST TO CENTRAL FL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY AS STRONG FORCING/LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH SPREADS EWD ATOP A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE SERN STATES. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND A PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM ERN SC SWWD INTO SERN GA/ERN FL PANHANDLE. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND FLOW WILL SUPPORT LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST FROM FAR SERN AL EWD ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL INTO PARTS OF SRN SC BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST LATER TONIGHT. ..PETERS.. 01/31/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 31 05:22:29 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 31 Jan 2006 00:22:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060131052312.21BCB8B376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310521 SWODY1 SPC AC 310519 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 PM CST MON JAN 30 2006 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE CRE 35 NW ILM 25 NNW RIC 35 WSW DOV 45 E ACY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... STRONG/DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AND BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE ALONG OR JUST OFF THE NC COAST AT 12Z TODAY...WITH THIS LOW UNDERGOING VERY STRONG DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NEWD TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE WATERS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT STRONG ASCENT WITH THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT N TO NW OF THE SURFACE LOW MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING. ANY ONSHORE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE OFFSHORE BY 18Z AS STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM SHIFTS ENEWD. ...CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES... UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE GREAT BASIN PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY REACHING WRN TX LATE TONIGHT. DESPITE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THIS SYSTEM...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN TOO COLD TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ..PETERS.. 01/31/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 31 12:37:19 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 31 Jan 2006 07:37:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060131123756.B19218B3A7@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311235 SWODY1 SPC AC 311233 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2006 VALID 311300Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S ILM 35 SE FAY 45 E RWI 25 N RIC 35 WSW DOV 45 E ACY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... DEEP TROUGH NOW OVER NC SHOULD CONTINUE ENE THROUGH THE PERIOD... REACHING AREA S OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...EXPECT PROGRESSIVE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER CA/SRN NV TO REACH THE KELP AREA. ERN SYSTEM REMAINS VERY COMPLEX ATTM...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THIS MORNING. ANY LINGERING THUNDER JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM UPR VORT CENTER SHOULD ALSO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THAT TIME. NEITHER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES NOR MOISTURE AVAILABILITY APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR LIGHTNING WITH SYSTEM CROSSING THE SWRN STATES... ALTHOUGH A STRIKE OR TWO COULD OCCUR DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION/WRN CO. ..CORFIDI.. 01/31/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 31 16:16:14 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 31 Jan 2006 11:16:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060131161652.A6D438B382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311613 SWODY1 SPC AC 311611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1011 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2006 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER CONUS WITH VIGOROUS DISTURBANCES MOVING RAPIDLY EWD. STRONG TROUGH NOW EXITING E COAST TAKING THE EARLIER THUNDER THREAT WITH IT. UPSTREAM S/WV OVER SWRN U.S. WILL BE MOVING INTO SWRN TX BY 12Z WED. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP W TX TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW COMMENCING FROM WRN GULF. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT S TX WITH 60S F LIKELY MOVING ONSHORE BY WED AM. ANY INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF TROUGH TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN EXPECTED STRONG CAP. MOIST...ONSHORE FLOW OF MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SPREADS INLAND TONIGHT PAC NW COAST. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR THE COAST BUT COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO SUFFICIENT FOR A GENERAL THUNDER FORECAST. ..HALES.. 01/31/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 31 19:30:38 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 31 Jan 2006 14:30:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060131193116.0D8BB8B38A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311929 SWODY1 SPC AC 311927 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2006 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS POWERFUL PACIFIC JET STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST TONIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AS STRONG DYNAMICS AND WEAK INSTABILITY MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND CHANCES FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEAR QUITE LOW. ..CARBIN.. 01/31/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM