[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 272001
SWODY1
SPC AC 272000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST MON FEB 27 2006

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES MEAN RIDGE FROM NWRN
MEX NWD ACROSS ERN GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES...AND WEAK HEIGHT
RISES OVER MUCH OF ERN CONUS S OF CYCLONE IN CANADIAN MARITIMES. 
PRONOUNCED TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AROUND 135W
-- W OF CA COAST.  BROAD FETCH OF SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH EMBEDDED
MINOR SHORTWAVES...WILL PERSIST THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD OVER W
COAST STATES.

...CA/NV...
BROAD ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EVIDENT AHEAD OF OFFSHORE
TROUGH...IN CONVECTIVE CLOUD CHARACTER AND IN SPORADIC DETECTION OF
CG LIGHTNING STRIKES OFFSHORE CENTRAL/SRN CA COAST.  AS THIS REGIME
MOVES EWD...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT/DEVELOP ONSHORE THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.  STEEPENING
LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED WITH SUBTLE SFC HEATING THAT
WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SUFFICE FOR GEN TSTM
POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER AREA.  PRIMARY BAROCLINIC BAND
OF LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL SHIFT THUNDER POTENTIAL WELL INLAND
TONIGHT WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES UP TO AROUND 200 J/KG POSSIBLE. 
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FEATURING 50-60 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS INDICATE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS...HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIMITED BY MUCH SMALLER EFFECTIVE SHEARS AND WEAK SFC THETAE.

..EDWARDS.. 02/27/2006