[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 260558
SWODY1
SPC AC 260556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2006

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND A RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SWD ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SEWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. 

...S FL...
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA DURING
THE DAY...MOVING S OF THE PENINSULA/KEYS BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z.  PRIOR
TO FRONTAL PASSAGE...DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL YIELD MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION /LESS THAN 500 J/KG
MEAN-LAYER CAPE/.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- WILL PERSIST/SHIFT SWD AHEAD
OF FRONT.

THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT
SUGGEST THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK/SUB-SEVERE.  WILL
MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREATS IN CURRENT FORECAST...THOUGH
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED.

..GOSS.. 02/26/2006