[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 222006
SWODY1
SPC AC 222005

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CST WED FEB 22 2006

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH SERN U.S....

THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM SC WWD THROUGH CNTRL AL
AND FARTHER W INTO ERN TX. A WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO THE SERN STATES THAT APPEARS TO BE COUPLED WITH RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF MID LEVEL JET OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS WILL SHIFT
EWD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN INFLUX
OF MOIST GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTO THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. RESULTING THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AND MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY N OF SURFACE FRONT. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR S OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDING AND ACARS DATA SHOW PRESENCE OF A MID
LEVEL INVERSION WHICH IS LIMITING INSTABILITY AND SUGGESTS THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW AND GENERALLY BELOW 25000 FT WITH
LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES THROUGH THIS SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE LAYER ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY AOA 45 KT...AND SOME WEAK
ROTATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH ACTIVITY OVER CNTRL AL. A OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A BRIEF TORNADO MAY EXIST WITH THE SHALLOW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. HOWEVER...THE WEAK
INSTABILITY AND WARM MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD SERVE
AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE
THREAT.

..DIAL.. 02/22/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM