[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 081250
SWODY1
SPC AC 081249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CST WED FEB 08 2006

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PLAINS INTO ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
A BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME PERSISTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...
WITH ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING.  MODELS SUGGEST THIS
IMPULSE WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD INTO/THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO/
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A REINFORCING
SURGE OF COLD/DRY AIR...WHICH WILL FURTHER STABILIZE ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES. 

STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK
ACCOMPANYING UPPER SYSTEM LIKELY WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
SUFFICIENTLY FOR WEAK/LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THROUGH PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON.  PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS TOO
SMALL TO DELINEATE A 10% COVERAGE LINE...BUT SOME MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
AT LEAST OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. POTENTIAL
SHOULD END BY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...PACIFIC COAST STATES/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN CUT-OFF FROM PRIMARY BELT OF POLAR
WESTERLIES...SOUTH OF UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN
STATES.  IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MAY
SUPPORT EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS BAJA INTO PARTS
OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU.  HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE U.S. BORDER THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

..KERR.. 02/08/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM