From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 1 00:08:19 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 31 Jan 2006 19:08:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060201000904.EA0F78B382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010005 SWODY1 SPC AC 010003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0603 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2006 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE NERN PACIFIC...CENTERED NEAR 48N 136W. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PAC NW AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH THIS REGION TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED STRONG DYNAMICS AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECTED COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR THIS AREA. ..PETERS.. 02/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 1 05:49:28 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 01 Feb 2006 00:49:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060201055009.42F318B367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010548 SWODY1 SPC AC 010546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2006 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE PSX 35 WNW VCT 25 SSW TPL 45 ESE ACT 40 WSW IER 20 SSE ESF 20 SSE PIB 40 NE MOB 50 SSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 35 E OLM 25 WSW PDX ONP 50 WSW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE CRP 35 WNW NIR 30 N HDO 40 S BWD 15 SW DAL 40 NE TXK 25 SW MEM 35 NE TUP 25 ENE 0A8 30 SSW DHN 45 SSW AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN TX TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... 00Z GFS/NAM ARE TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY REACHING SRN TX BY 00Z...BEFORE MOVING NEWD TOWARD LA TONIGHT. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL TX AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING/ OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD. A WARM FRONT/ COASTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE MID/UPPER TX COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY NOT MOVE INLAND ACROSS SRN LA UNTIL AFTER 00Z. FAST FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN STATES WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVING OVER THE PAC NW COAST TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. ...SERN TX TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WRN GULF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALLOW MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD. LOWER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED INLAND ACROSS ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT HAS ALREADY SPREAD EWD ACROSS TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. FURTHER STEEPENING OF THESE LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED ATOP THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CAP UNTIL EITHER SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION AND/OR THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG ASCENT CAN WEAKEN THE CAP FOR TSTM INITIATION. SOME SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN THE CAP BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 800-1200 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SURFACE BASED STORMS FROM THE MID/UPPER TX COAST INLAND WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND ALSO ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...POTENTIALLY AS FAR EAST AS WRN LA. STORM CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE THE INITIAL STORM MODES WITH THE EXPECTED TSTMS. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR SUGGEST HAIL WILL BE MORE LIKELY WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN TX. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AS MODELS SUGGEST A QUASI-LINEAR MCS DEVELOPING AND MOVING EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION FROM THE UPPER TX COAST TO POTENTIALLY THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY 12Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER TX COAST/SERN TX EWD ACROSS SRN LA AS THE COASTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ..PETERS.. 02/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 1 13:01:47 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 01 Feb 2006 08:01:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060201130221.4A28F8B376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011300 SWODY1 SPC AC 011258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST WED FEB 01 2006 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE PSX 40 SE BAZ 35 W AUS 15 NE TPL 30 S TYR 30 W IER HEZ PIB 30 NNE MOB 40 WSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 35 E OLM 25 WSW PDX ONP 50 WSW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE CRP 35 WNW NIR 25 S JCT 30 E ABI 10 ESE GYI 30 NNW DEQ 55 W MEM 35 NE TUP 25 ENE 0A8 30 SSW DHN 45 SSW AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E CNTRL/SE TX TO THE CNTRL GULF CST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH RELATIVELY FAST WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS MAIN JET REMAINS OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES. SRN STREAM VORT NOW OVER FAR W TX SHOULD CONTINUE ESE ACROSS S TX TODAY...BEFORE RECURVING ENE TONIGHT AND ASSUMING A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. SLY FLOW NOW UNDERWAY ACROSS CNTRL AND E TX WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. DEVELOPING WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM S OF KGLS TO NEAR KLRD SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY N ACROSS THE TX GULF CSTL PLN AS WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY. THE LOW SHOULD REDEVELOP E/NE ALONG THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LIFTS N TO THE LA CST. ...SE TX TO CNTRL GULF CST... SURFACE PRESSURE FALL CENTER OVER THE LWR RIO GRANDE SUGGESTS THAT CYCLOGENESIS DOWNSTREAM FROM W TX VORT IS ALREADY OCCURRING NEAR KLRD. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL S TO SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FAIRLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/ NOW PRESENT OVER THE WRN GULF TO SPREAD NWD INTO SE TX... PERHAPS AS FAR W/N AS KCLL/KLFK. SURFACE HEATING WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED BY BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS IN SUBTROPICAL CONVEYOR. BUT EVEN WITH MODEST HEATING...COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WITH INCREASING ASCENT PROVIDED BY APPROACHING UPR VORT SHOULD BOOST AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES TO AOA 1000 J/KG. STOUT EML DEPICTED ON MORNING RAOB AT KDRT...AND IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...LIKELY WILL KEEP TX CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN STRENGTH/ EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE...AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ASCENT ALONG WARM FRONT...EXPECT THAT SURFACE-BASED INITIATION WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY OVER THE CNTRL TX GULF CSTL PLN. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM A BIT FARTHER W /NEAR KAUS/ AS APPROACH OF VORT AND ASSOCIATED COOLING ALOFT LEAD TO MORE RAPID OVERTURNING. FARTHER N...ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO NE TX/WRN LA AND SW AR. AMPLE /40+ KT/ DEEP SW TO WSWLY SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND HODOGRAPHS WILL BE ENLARGED IN THE LOWER LEVELS NEAR WARM FRONT OVER SE TX AND THE UPR TX GULF CST. THUS... POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR BOTH HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT E/NE INTO SRN LA BY EARLY TONIGHT. FAR SRN TRACK OF UPR VORT AND EXISTING COOL AIR MASS OVER THE N CNTRL GULF SUGGEST...HOWEVER...THAT THE TX STORMS LIKELY WILL EVOLVE INTO AN MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THE STRONGEST PART OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY REMAIN OVER THE GULF AS THE MCS MOVES E TO NEAR KMOB BY 12Z THURSDAY. ..CORFIDI.. 02/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 1 16:25:31 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 01 Feb 2006 11:25:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060201162604.4F7528B318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011622 SWODY1 SPC AC 011621 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 AM CST WED FEB 01 2006 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE PSX 40 SE BAZ 35 W AUS 15 NE TPL 30 S TYR 30 W IER HEZ PIB 30 NNE MOB 40 WSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 35 E OLM 25 WSW PDX ONP 50 WSW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE CRP 35 WNW NIR 25 S JCT 30 E ABI 10 ESE GYI 30 NNW DEQ 55 W MEM 35 NE TUP 25 ENE 0A8 30 SSW DHN 45 SSW AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SERN TX EWD ALONG CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SERN TX AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... A COMPACT BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD THRU SWRN TX IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE RETURN FLOW INTO SRN TX. SUBSTANTIAL CAP NOTED ON REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AT 12Z ACROSS SRN TX WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS UNDER THE PROCESSES OF UPWARD MOTION WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND CONTINUED MOISTENING AND HEATING LOWER LEVELS AS WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND. CURRENTLY WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SCENTRAL TX IN AREA OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS AND UPWARD MOTION DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT STORMS TAPPING INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO ABOVE 1500 J/KG NEAR THE COAST. SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AS HELICITIES RISE TO ABOVE 200 M2/S2 NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE ALONG UPPER TX COAST. ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SCENTRAL TX DURING AFTERNOON WILL BE PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL THREATS. SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD TONIGHT AS A POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SERN TX INTO SRN LA. WOULD EXPECT STORMS OVERNIGHT TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED PARTICULARLY INLAND AREAS. LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH WIND DAMAGE AS STORMS TAKE ON A MORE LINEAR MODE IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ..HALES.. 02/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 1 20:08:36 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 01 Feb 2006 15:08:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060201200911.58D348B385@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 012006 SWODY1 SPC AC 012004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S PSX 40 SSE BAZ 35 W AUS 15 NE TPL 30 SW TYR 40 WNW IER HEZ 25 W PIB 35 N MOB 40 S PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 35 E OLM 25 WSW PDX ONP 50 WSW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E CRP 35 NE COT 20 SE JCT 20 NNE BWD 30 NNE FTW 25 ESE FSM 25 W BVX 10 NNE MEM 45 S CBM 25 ENE GZH 35 S AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER TX GULF COAST TO SRN LA/MS... ...SERN TX/SRN LA-MS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP DEPICTS COMPACT BUT POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING STEADILY ESEWD ACROSS LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NEWD OVER LA THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY. STRONG DPVA/LIFT WAS ALREADY ACTING ON MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE CAPPING INVERSION AND SUPPORTING ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...FROM EAST OF SAT TO NORTH OF HOU. EXPECT ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THIS CORRIDOR TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. A CLUSTER OR TWO OF HAIL-PRODUCING TSTMS NEAR/WITHIN MID LEVEL TROUGH COULD SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE TXK/SHV AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING. HOWEVER...MORE VIGOROUS/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...AND LARGER HAIL...WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO EXPAND INLAND ACROSS THE TX COAST FROM VCT NEWD TO WEST OF HOU AS SURFACE LOW WEST OF VCT DEEPENS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...STRONGER WARM SECTOR INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY WHEN CRP 18Z SOUNDING IS ADJUSTED FOR LATEST INFLOW AIR MASS /TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AS STORMS TAP GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...AND ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS STORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE TX GULF COAST FROM VCT THROUGH HOU/GLS AREA. EVOLUTION INTO AN MCS APPEARS LIKELY BY LATE EVENING AS DEEP LAYER LARGER-SCALE CIRCULATION MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND AIDS IN UPSCALE ORGANIZATION. HAIL AND WIND THREAT SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE MCS AS IT SPREADS EWD ALONG THE LA GULF COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 02/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 01:02:00 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 01 Feb 2006 20:02:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060202010235.BE9338B36F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020100 SWODY1 SPC AC 020058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SSE PSX 35 N PSX 10 S CLL 45 NW UTS 35 N LFK 25 WNW IER 35 WNW HEZ 20 W PIB 20 N MOB 45 SE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 35 E OLM 25 WSW PDX ONP 50 WSW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SE CRP 10 NNE VCT 15 NNW BAZ 50 WNW TPL 10 SSE DUA 30 ESE RKR 35 NNE LIT 15 SSW MEM 30 SE CBM 20 ENE GZH 25 SSE AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SERN TX THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY... EARLY THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR LAGRANGE TEXAS...SEWD TO JUST S OF HOUSTON THEN INTO THE WRN GULF. A N-S ORIENTED BOUNDARY WITH DRYLINE CHARACTERISTICS EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SWD TO JUST E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO JUST W OF BROWNSVILLE. INFLUX OF HIGHEST THETA-E AIR HAS SPREAD INLAND BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES INTO PARTS OF SERN TX WITH AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR HAS OCCURRED N OF THE WARM FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT EAST OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH S TX. N OF THE WARM FRONT...ESELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN STATES HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER WHICH HAS KEPT MOST OF THE CONVECTION ELEVATED AND HAS SERVED AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR. HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY ELEVATED CELLULAR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS THAT ATTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. LATER THIS EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TO IN EXCESS OF 50 KT FARTHER EAST FROM EXTREME SERN TX INTO SRN LA RESULTING IN THE WARM FRONT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER THE WRN GULF LIFTING NWD. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO NWD DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR NEAR SURFACE BASED STORMS LATER TONIGHT OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATER TONIGHT...A STRONG MID LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INTO COASTAL LA...COINCIDENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. THE STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN SOME STORMS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS LINES WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. ..DIAL.. 02/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 05:43:43 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 00:43:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060202054419.69E368B382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020542 SWODY1 SPC AC 020540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S HUM ASD 30 SE PIB 40 WNW GZH TOI 15 WNW ABY 25 N VLD 45 SE VLD 25 SSE CTY 75 WNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE VRB 70 WSW APF ...CONT... 65 S 7R4 30 NW LFT 25 NNE IER 25 N ELD 15 E LIT 10 S JBR 40 NNE MKL BNA 20 NE CSV 10 NE HSS 45 NNE HKY 25 N DAN 20 W RIC 15 W WAL 85 E WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE BLI 25 NNE SEA 20 E AST 55 W ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND NERN GULF COAST STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SERN TX IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES AND DEAMPLIFY AS AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE MOVES SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH AL INTO THE CNTRL GULF BY LATE AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT NOW OFFSHORE MAY MOVE INLAND INTO PARTS OF SRN AL...SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. ...CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA... AN MCS WITH MOSTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND N OF WARM FRONT. SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE STORMS MAY BE CLOSER TO SURFACE BASED. PRIMARY CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INLAND. STRONG 60+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT ENEWD ALONG THE GULF COASTAL STATES DURING THE DAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE NWD ADVECTION OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY RESIDING S OF WARM FRONT OVER THE W CNTRL GULF. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S MAY SPREAD INLAND TO PARTS OF SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE AND CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT IN WAKE OF MCS BY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST ASCENT IS FORECAST TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR WITH TIME. HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG N-S BOUNDARY WITHIN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE...ESPECIALLY IF HEATING MATERIALIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL MAY ALSO EXIST FOR INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS ALONG THE SRN END OF THE MCS AS RICHER MOISTURE ADVECTS INLAND. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND LINES. DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY THROUGH MID EVENING. SOME HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 02/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 12:57:17 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 07:57:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060202125747.3567E8B36F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021255 SWODY1 SPC AC 021253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE BVE 40 S MOB 35 NNE MOB 30 NW GZH TOI 15 WNW ABY 25 N VLD 35 N GNV 30 SSE CTY 75 WNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE VRB 70 WSW APF ...CONT... 30 SSE BVE 35 SSW MOB 40 SSW PIB 30 SE ESF 30 NE IER 25 WSW LLQ 20 ESE HOT 25 SW RKR MKO 20 ESE UMN 35 SW FAM 20 ESE POF 40 NNE MKL BNA 20 NE CSV 10 NE HSS 45 NNE HKY 30 NNE DAN 25 E CHO MRB 30 N CXY 20 W ABE 25 SW NEL 50 ESE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE BLI 25 NNE SEA 20 E AST 55 W ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE ERN GULF CST RGN... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN LA UPR VORT SHOULD ACCELERATE NE TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD WHILE A SERIES OF FAST-MOVING IMPULSES SERVE TO CARVE A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL U.S. SURFACE LOW NOW NEAR KBTR SHOULD LIFT RAPIDLY NE TO NEAR KERI BY 12Z FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT N INTO CNTRL GA LATER TODAY...AND REDEVELOP NE TO THE MID ATLANTIC CSTL PLN EARLY FRIDAY. ...ERN GULF CST TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT... SQLN WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS NOW OVER SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE APPEARS TO MARK DEEP LAYER WIND SHIFT IN SRN QUADRANT OF EJECTING UPR TROUGH. THIS WIND SHIFT...AND THE ASSOCIATED BAND OF ASCENT... SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE DISTURBANCE DEAMPLIFIES AND LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE GULF CST. IN ADDITION...RAPID MOTION OF TROUGH SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL OUTPACE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE FAR NERN GULF. THESE FACTORS SHOULD SERVE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SQLN AS THE CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES E INTO N FL AND GA LATER TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN 40 TO 50 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND THEIR ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...ERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WARM FRONT WILL REDEVELOP N OF THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS DEEP LAYER FLOW BACKS AND STRENGTHENS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. OFFSHORE SURFACE OBS IN THE WRN ATLANTIC AND SATELLITE CLOUD TRENDS SUGGEST THAT AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE CAROLINAS S OF FRONT WILL BE MODIFIED POLAR IN NATURE. THUS...DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SQLN SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AS NRN PART OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SC AND THE ERN HALF OF NC TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. WHILE 60-70 KT DEEP SW FLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONVECTIVE BAND WILL POSE A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SMALL SCALE BOWS WITH DAMAGING WIND...ANY SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ...NE LA INTO CNTRL/NRN MS/NW AL TODAY... A BAND OR TWO OF COMPARATIVELY LOW-TOPPED STORMS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO PRECEDE WEAKENING UPR VORT CENTER AS IT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE UPR SOUTH TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY YIELD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..CORFIDI.. 02/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 16:31:31 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 11:31:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060202163204.7F19C8B379@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021627 SWODY1 SPC AC 021625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PFN 25 SW MAI 35 SW ABY 45 NE MGR 30 WSW JAX 30 SSE CTY 75 WNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE PNS DHN 25 WSW AUO 40 SSE BHM 25 W MEI 40 S MLU 20 E SHV 45 NNW GGG 10 W MLC 25 NE FSM 30 S UNO 35 NW DYR 40 SSE PAH BNA 20 NE CSV 10 NE HSS 45 NNE HKY 30 NNE DAN 25 E CHO MRB 30 N CXY 20 W ABE 25 SW NEL 50 ESE ACY ...CONT... 50 ENE VRB 70 WSW APF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN GA AND EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... BROAD TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL U.S. WITH THE VIGOROUS S/WV TROF INITIALLY LOWER MS VALLEY LIFTING RAPIDLY NEWD REACHING MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS NRN MS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO SOME DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THE STRONG OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE DRIVEN BY THE LWR MS VALLEY S/WV TROUGH IS NOW WEAKENING OVER SWRN GA SWWD INTO NERN GULF AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. THE S/WV IS MOVING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE SOURCE OF STILL FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE OVER THE NERN GULF. HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED TO STILL BE IN PLACE TO MAINTAIN A LOW END THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE/ISOLATED TORNADOES THRU THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PART OF S GA AND ERN FL PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A LOW END THREAT OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE TONIGHT CAROLINA COAST AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. COLD AIR ALOFT WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON PORTIONS OF LOWER MS VALLEY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS MLCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE SRN AR INTO NRN MS PARTICULARLY WHERE SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR. ..HALES.. 02/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 20:26:08 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 15:26:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060202202639.097BA8B366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 022000 SWODY1 SPC AC 021959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CST THU FEB 02 2006 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PFN 30 NNW AAF 10 NNE TLH 40 WNW AYS 30 WSW JAX 30 SSE CTY 75 WNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE VRB 70 WSW APF ...CONT... 40 SE PNS 10 ESE DHN 30 SW AUO 25 SSW SEM 20 NNE PIB 40 NNE HEZ 25 W MLU 15 N ELD 25 SW LIT 25 SE BVX 30 WSW DYR 25 ENE DYR 25 SW CKV 25 E BNA 20 NE CSV 10 NE HSS 45 NNE HKY 30 NNE DAN 25 E CHO MRB 30 N CXY 20 W ABE 25 SW NEL 50 ESE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NERN GULF COASTAL AREA... ...SRN GA/NRN FL... THOUGH THE STRONGER MASS CONVERGENCE HAD TRANSLATED NEWD INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS IN TANDEM WITH THE DEAMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...A RESIDUAL BAND OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS PERSISTED OVER THE ERN GULF BASIN INTO THE FL PNHDL THIS AFTN. PERSISTENT INFLUX OF WARM/UNSTABLE PARCELS FEEDING INTO THE EXISTING BAND OF TSTMS /SRN PORTION OF MORNING SQUALL LINE/ HAS CONTRIBUTED TO BACKBUILDING/TRAINING OF CELLS FROM THE CNTRL FL PNHDL INTO THE NERN GULF BASIN. VWP FROM TLH SHOWS A LONG HODOGRAPH WITH SIGNIFICANT VEERING IN THE LOWEST 3 KM...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. BUT...MARINE FRONT MAY MOVE SLIGHTLY INLAND ACROSS NWRN FL/ERN FL PNHDL THIS EVENING SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS. SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP OFFSHORE WOULD LIKELY EVOLVE QUICKLY INTO BOW ECHO/LINE SEGMENTS...THEN TEND TO NOT HAVE A LONG LIFE CYCLE OVER LAND. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NWRN FL. ...COASTAL GA/CAROLINAS... GIVEN BACKING LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE OH VLY IMPULSE...AIR MASS WAS GRADUALLY MODIFYING ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF GA/CAROLINAS. BUT...THE CHARACTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD AND BUOY OBS SUGGEST THAT QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL. THUS...NRN PARTS OF THE RESIDUAL SQUALL LINE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND GA OVERNIGHT. NONETHELESS...PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL JUSTIFY LOW PROBABILITIES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TORNADOES. ...PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... A BAND OR TWO OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE/FRONT. WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS DIMINISHING WITH TIME AS SURFACE HEATING IS KEPT TO A MINIMUM AND MASS CONVERGENCE SHIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE AREA. ..RACY.. 02/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 00:45:15 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 19:45:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060203004546.EF2CB8B36F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030043 SWODY1 SPC AC 030041 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 PM CST THU FEB 02 2006 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW PFN 20 NE TLH AYS 15 WNW SSI 15 S SSI 15 NNW SGJ 30 E GNV 25 W OCF 75 WNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE PNS 30 ENE MAI 20 WNW VDI 30 NNE OGB 30 NNE FAY 25 ENE WAL ...CONT... 50 ENE MLB 85 W APF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN FL INTO EXTREME SERN GA... ...NRN FL INTO EXTREME SERN GA... A LARGE LINEAR MCS EXTENDS FROM SRN GA THROUGH NRN FL AND INTO THE NERN GULF. ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED WITHIN THIS MCS INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S HAS ADVECTED NEWD INTO NRN FL. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S...STORMS ALONG THE SRN FLANK OF THE MCS ARE CLOSE TO BEING SURFACE BASED AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE 00Z JACKSONVILLE RAOB. INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL HOWEVER OWING TO WEAK LAPSE RATES. LATEST VWP DATA SHOWS A STRONG SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS NRN FL CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FORWARD FLANK OF THE MCS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND TRAINING NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...LATER TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES NEWD. THIS MAY RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITHIN THE MCS FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. ..DIAL.. 02/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 05:56:44 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 00:56:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060203055717.2E8918B377@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030555 SWODY1 SPC AC 030553 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CST THU FEB 02 2006 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE MLB 55 SSW SRQ ...CONT... 50 SSW BVE 25 SE MSY 25 SE MCB 40 NW PIB 25 W MEI 45 WSW 0A8 20 NNW MGM AUO MCN 45 SW AGS 30 ESE AGS 25 ENE OGB 30 SSE FLO 30 SSW ILM 55 ESE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 10 S OLM 20 SSE SLE 40 S EUG 25 NE 4BK 55 WSW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW 7R4 10 SW BPT 30 NNE UTS 15 WSW TYR 30 S PRX 10 SE DEQ 15 SSE HOT 20 NNE UOX 30 N HSV 20 W TYS 25 S BLF 35 SSW CHO 25 SSW NHK 55 ESE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SERN STATES AND FL... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL JET MOVES SEWD INTO ITS BASE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER LA WITHIN THE DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF THE STRONG UPPER JET EARLY FRIDAY THEN LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY. THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE EWD IN THE PROCESS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA DURING THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF MAY LIFT NWD ONTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. A SECONDARY WARM FRONT MAY FORM FARTHER INLAND AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. ...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES... PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL LIKELY SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF SRN AL...SRN GA AND NRN FL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...RICHER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF MARINE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. ONGOING CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY LIMIT ITS ABILITY TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND THAN THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST AND NRN FL. DESPITE THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FARTHER W INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INITIALLY IN POST FRONTAL REGION AND EVENTUALLY ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF MS AND LA. INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME SURFACE BASED ALONG THE FRONT LATER IN THE DAY. THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER EAST WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IN ZONE OF DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND WHETHER THESE STORMS CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD GRADUALLY MOISTEN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST LOW 60S DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE INTO SRN AL AND SRN GA. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES AND SUPERCELLS. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT FROM THE CNTRL/NERN GULF COASTAL AREA INTO NRN AND CNTRL FL. STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ..DIAL.. 02/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 12:35:45 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 07:35:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060203123611.8E267D47DE@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031233 SWODY1 SPC AC 031232 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE MLB 55 WSW FMY ...CONT... 25 ESE BVE 25 SE MCB 40 NW PIB 15 NNE MEI MCN 30 SSE FLO 55 ESE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 10 S OLM 20 SSE SLE 40 S EUG 25 NE 4BK 55 WSW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW 7R4 30 NNE UTS 15 WSW TYR 30 S PRX 10 SE DEQ 25 ENE MSL 25 SSW NHK 55 ESE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S... 12Z OBSERVED DATA AND OVERNIGHT MODELS SUGGEST MAINTAINING CURRENT SLGT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW AMPLIFYING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THOUGH EXTENSIVE CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT HAS ESTABLISHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN FL INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO...STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW MODIFICATION TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION TODAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION BY LATER TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING OR RE-INTENSIFY LATER THIS MORNING OVER THE NERN GULF INTO NRN/CENTRAL FL ONCE HEATING OVERCOMES WEAK NOCTURNAL CAPPING INVERSION. 12Z SOUNDING FROM TBW INDICATES AIR MASS IS ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED THIS MORNING...WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE /I.E. 58 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 250+ M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH/. THUS...SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE BY THE MID MORNING INTO CENTRAL FL...THOUGH SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY CONTINUE UNDERCUTTING EWD MOVING STORMS. ONCE OUTFLOW STALLS...TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL INCREASE AS STORMS MOVE ENEWD OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND REMAIN ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. OTHER DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER WEST INTO SRN MS/FAR SRN AL WITHIN ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT/STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND DEVELOP QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS REMAINDER OF SERN U.S. OVERNIGHT. SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY WITH WSWLY H5 WINDS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY/OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH 90+ KT MID LEVEL JET ROUNDING BASE OF DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THEREFORE...STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS/SMALL BOW ECHOES WITH ENHANCED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/POSSIBLE TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ACROSS NRN FL/FAR SRN GA. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN/MID LEVELS COOL. ..EVANS.. 02/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 16:35:29 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 11:35:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060203163556.AACCFD47F8@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031632 SWODY1 SPC AC 031630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE BVE 15 NE MSY 15 N BTR POE 30 NW POE 35 SSE SHV 30 E SHV 45 SSW GLH 15 NNW MEI 10 W MCN 30 SSE FLO 55 ESE ILM ...CONT... 35 NE VRB 50 SSW SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 10 S OLM 20 SSE SLE 40 S EUG 25 NE 4BK 55 WSW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW 7R4 30 NNE UTS 15 WSW TYR 30 S PRX 20 SSE DEQ 30 NNE PBF 15 SW MKL 50 SW LOZ 40 NNW SSU 35 S DCA 55 ESE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FROM LA/MS EWD TO THE SE ATLANTIC COAST.... ...SE STATES TODAY INTO TONIGHT... A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX/OK WILL MOVE EWD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID LEVEL WAVE...CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN LA/MS ALONG AN E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE WAKE OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EJECTING NEWD OVER PA. THIS FRONT SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NWD ACROSS SRN MS/AL/GA TODAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE REMNANTS OF A WEAKER LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE EJECTING NEWD OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N FL. A LINEAR CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NE GULF WAVE...AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW GENERATED BY THESE STORMS IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS WNWWD TO NEAR THE LA DELTA...AND THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS IS CONFINED TO AREAS OF FL AND THE OPEN GULF S OF THE BOUNDARY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE CENTRAL FL STORMS SHOULD TEND TO REDUCE THE SEVERE STORM THREAT ACROSS N FL THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH SOME RECOVERY EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY ACROSS NRN LA AND SPREAD EWD/NEWD ACROSS MS IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THAT WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING...RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESIDUAL L0W-LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE L0W-MID 50S MAY SUPPORT A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. FARTHER E/SE...GRADUAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON FROM SE LA INTO SRN MS/AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 500-1500 J/KG/. LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALSO INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS SRN LA...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING INVOF THE NE GULF COAST. ..THOMPSON.. 02/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 20:05:48 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 15:05:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060203200612.4AD55D47EF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 032004 SWODY1 SPC AC 032002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0202 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE BVE 10 NNE MSY 30 W BTR 35 SE POE 25 ENE POE 45 ENE MLU 40 SSW GWO 40 NE MEI 15 NNE CSG 10 W MCN 30 SSE FLO 55 ESE ILM ...CONT... 45 NNE PBI 50 SSW SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 10 S OLM 20 SSE SLE 40 S EUG 25 NE 4BK 55 WSW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE 7R4 45 SE LFK 50 NE LFK 15 ESE SHV 35 WSW LLQ 25 SSW MEM 15 SW MKL 50 SW LOZ 40 NNW SSU 35 S DCA 55 ESE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY EWD INTO THE SERN STATES... ...LWR MS VLY EWD INTO THE DEEP S... MID-AFTN MESOANALYSIS PLACES AN INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT ARCING FROM THE MID-MS VLY SWWD ACROSS CNTRL LA THEN WWD INTO SCNTRL TX. A WEAK LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SWRN MS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO CNTRL FL. THE SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDED EWD ACROSS CNTRL PARTS OF MS...AL...GA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS. PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE PARENT TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE MS DELTA. THIS MAY BE AIDING ONGOING TSTMS IN THE LWR MS VLY. SO FAR...LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS OWING TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD TOWARD THE REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL AREA AS THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH AXIS/JET STREAK OVER CNTRL TX TRANSLATES EWD. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON THE MODIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE LAST NIGHT/S ACTIVITY ACTED TO STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT. BUT...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE SITUATED JUST OFF THE SURFACE AND THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW/MIXING...AIR MASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE AND SUPPORT TSTMS. THUS...APPROACHING/DEVELOPING TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS VLY MAY BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SRN MS/ERN LA EWD INTO AL AND WRN FL PNHDL. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SRN MS AND SRN AL WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN BACKED VCNTY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. ...SERN STATES... A SOMEWHAT SEPARATE AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM PARTS OF FL NEWD INTO SRN GA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. WARM CONVEYOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...WITH STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COMMENCING BY THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF TSTMS SHOULD RESULT...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED. CNTRL FL MCS HAS MAINTAINED A SUBSTANTIAL COLD DOME ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MAY GRADUALLY ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL SSWLY FLOW INCREASES TO 40-45 KTS. THOUGH TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY ELEVATED ACROSS EXTREME NRN FL...SRN GA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS...THE PROBABILITY FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS CNTRL FL WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MODIFY. INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH 50-60 KTS OF WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HIGHER THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF CNTRL FL WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY. ..RACY.. 02/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 00:53:12 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 19:53:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060204005336.CFE9FD47FC@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040051 SWODY1 SPC AC 040049 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE MIA 35 NW MTH ...CONT... 85 E BVE 20 S MOB 45 N MOB 45 SE MEI 45 WSW 0A8 TCL 25 NE TCL 10 WNW BHM 25 SW GAD 15 ENE ANB 10 S ATL 35 S AHN 40 W AGS 30 ENE AGS 15 N OGB 25 SSW FLO 20 NNW ILM 35 NE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 35 WNW SEA 40 S OLM 10 WNW PDX 10 S SLE EUG 25 ESE OTH 40 WNW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW HUM 15 E MSY 15 SSE PIB 15 NE MEI 25 NW TCL 30 SW HSV 40 NNE HSV 10 W CSV 40 ESE LOZ 20 E SSU 45 W NHK 50 E SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SERN STATES AND FL... ...SERN STATES... A BOUNDARY SEPARATING RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS FROM PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR EXTENDS FROM THE NERN GULF SEWD INTO SRN FL WHERE IT BECOMES LESS DEFINED WITHIN A MYRIAD OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. N OF THIS BOUNDARY...EVENING RAOB DATA SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MODERATE MUCAPE. THE INSTABILITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH NWD EXTENT INTO SRN GA. THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING OVER THE NERN GULF INTO CNTRL/NRN FL AND GA WITHIN REGION OF INCREASING ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND NWD ADVANCE OF THE MARINE BOUNDARY. NUMEROUS ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY SO FAR. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND THE STORMS BECOME CLOSER TO BEING SURFACE BASED...THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF NRN FL AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN GA. FARTHER WEST...A LINE OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES PERSISTS ACROSS WRN AL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE EWD TONIGHT WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT. THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SWD WITH TIME AS RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INLAND AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...STORMS ON THE SRN END OF MCS THAT CAN DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ..DIAL.. 02/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 06:10:42 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 01:10:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060204061105.5BE5BD5436@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040604 SWODY1 SPC AC 040603 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE AAF 20 SSW VLD 20 S VDI 25 E AGS 20 E CLT 15 W DAN 45 S CHO 30 SW NHK 45 ESE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NNW OMK 40 NW EAT 40 N DLS 35 WNW RDM 15 NW MFR 70 SW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW AAF 30 WSW MGR 35 S MCN 30 SSE AHN 15 ESE AVL 15 WSW BKW 35 NW EKN 25 SSE DUJ 30 NNW IPT 30 NW MSV 30 ENE POU 30 WSW ACK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FL THROUGH THE PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SYNOPSIS... SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TOWARD THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AS A STRONG IMPULSE ROTATES THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND LIFTS NEWD INTO THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC. ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE SERN STATES AND FL WHILE A WARM FRONT TRIES TO DEVELOPS INLAND ACROSS ERN NC INTO VA. ...GA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC... THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR INLAND WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA INTO SC EARLY SATURDAY CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA AS IT INTERCEPTS BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AS IMPULSE ROTATES THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED STORMS AND AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR RICHER MOISTURE OVER THE GULF STREAM TO ADVECT INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS AND ERN VA. HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF STREAM MAY LIMIT OVERALL QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN. COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD EJECTING IMPULSE WILL SPREAD EWD AND INTERCEPT THE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND EARLY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND THIS MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR. STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AS WELL AS ALONG THE FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED LINES AND A FEW SUPERCELLS IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING. ...FL... STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS FL AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON A LARGE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION IN THIS AREA. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SEWD DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ALSO FORECAST TO VEER EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE N. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE WIND PROFILES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS WITHIN THIS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION TO BECOME ORGANIZED AS SUPERCELLS OR BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..DIAL.. 02/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 12:44:19 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 07:44:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060204124442.14F19D565D@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041242 SWODY1 SPC AC 041241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE AAF 20 NE MGR 50 S AHN 20 N AHN 15 ENE AVL 30 WNW DAN BWI ILG 55 SE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NNW OMK 40 NW EAT 40 N DLS 35 WNW RDM 15 NW MFR 70 SW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW AAF 30 WSW MGR MCN 30 ESE ATL 10 E TYS 35 ENE JKL 25 ENE PKB 15 S DUJ 25 SSE ELM 45 N MSV 20 WNW ORH 50 E BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SOUTHEASTERN U.S. INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... SURFACE LOW NOW DEEPENING OVER FAR ERN KY WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NWD ALONG THE RIM OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NWD AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS... ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH ASSOCIATED 80-100 KT MID LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD AND MOVE OFF THE SC/GA COAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXTEND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWD TO JUST OFF THE SRN FL COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE FORECAST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS COMPLICATED BY EFFECTS OF EXTENSIVE CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MODEST WARM SECTOR...WITH ADDITION OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT CHS. PRIMARY QUESTION WILL BE HEATING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS REGION WILL LIKELY NEED TO HEAT INTO/THROUGH THE LOWER 70S TO BECOME TRULY SURFACE BASED. GIVEN TIMING OF FRONT AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...SHALLOW STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE MAY BE HARD TO OVERCOME. HOWEVER... SIGNIFICANT ASCENT AND FRONTAL LIFT MAY ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME NEARLY SURFACE BASED ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS/FL LATER THIS MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WITH STRONGER STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINES. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. NORTHWARD EXTENT OF SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT ALSO REMAINS QUESTIONABLE WITH WARM FRONT REMAINING IN PLACE AT 12Z NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. PRESSURE FALLS NORTH OF THIS FEATURE AND VERY STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD ALLOW WARM FRONT TO MIX/LIFT QUICKLY NWD TODAY. THUS...THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY SHIFT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS NEAR 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECT NWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. ..EVANS.. 02/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 16:27:07 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 11:27:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060204162729.58266D5676@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041625 SWODY1 SPC AC 041623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE CHS 30 SSW OGB 30 ESE SPA 25 ENE HKY 25 SE ROA 45 ENE CHO 15 ESE NHK 40 SSE WAL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S APF 30 ENE PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW 63S 40 E P69 55 S SMN 15 NNE OWY 20 SSE MFR 40 WSW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S CTY 20 NNE JAX 10 SSW SAV 20 E AND 20 E TRI 40 WNW EKN FKL 25 NNE JHW 30 E ROC 30 ENE UCA 20 WNW ORH 55 NE HYA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SE VA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS SE FL AND THE KEYS.... ...SYNOPSIS... AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 90-100 KT 500 MB JET WILL LIFT NNEWD OVER THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED 995 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE OH/WV BORDER DEEPENS AND OCCLUDES ACROSS SW ONTARIO BY TONIGHT. S OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE...A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD AND OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES/WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE PAC NW WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ...CAROLINAS/VA AREA... THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NWD INTO SE VA...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL NWD PROGRESS OF THE WARM SECTOR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD/THICK CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS/VA...AND ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE TODAY. THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING WILL BE A NARROW SWATH BENEATH THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THE ERN CAROLINAS/VA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS TODAY. ...GA/FL AREA... THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GA COAST AROUND MIDDAY...AND ACROSS ALL OF THE FL PENINSULA BY ABOUT 00Z. A NARROW BAND OF FORCED/SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS SE GA AND NRN/CENTRAL FL TODAY...BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND IMPACT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE STORM THREAT. AN UNCONTAMINATED MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS OVER SE FL WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F. EXPECT THE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE TO MOVE ACROSS SE FL AND THE KEYS BY 18-20Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..THOMPSON.. 02/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 20:03:08 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 15:03:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060204200330.141C4D5694@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 042001 SWODY1 SPC AC 041959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE CHS 25 SE FLO 20 SSW SOP 20 NNE GSO 25 NE ROA 35 ENE CHO 15 E NHK 45 SSE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S 3TH 25 SSE SMN 15 SW IDA 30 NNW OGD 20 SE ENV 25 NNE U31 30 SSW WMC 45 SW REO BNO 35 N RDM 25 NNW DLS EAT 30 SSW 63S 55 WNW 3TH 40 S 3TH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE SAV 10 W FLO 35 SSW GSO 15 N BLF 45 ENE CRW 25 WNW PIT ERI 15 NW ROC 40 E ART MPV 40 ESE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W EYW 40 SSE PBI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF VA/NC... ...ERN NC/VA... 100+ KT SLY H5 WIND MAX ALONG BASE OF THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO CNTRL NC/VA AT MID-AFTN AND WAS SUPPORTING SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER NWRN NC. THIS LOW SHOULD DEVELOP NWD ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS HAVE EVOLVED. STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM HAS BEEN TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE NWD WITH 58-63F SURFACE DEW POINTS COMMON ALONG/S OF THE WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM CNTRL VA TO SRN DE. HEATING HAS BEEN MINIMAL TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OWING TO CLOUDS...BUT STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT HAVE BEEN ADVANCING EWD...CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG FROM THE NC PIEDMONT NEWD INTO ERN VA. A THIN BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ALONG A FRONT FROM CNTRL WV SWD INTO CNTRL NC. COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH HAS BEEN LAGGING BEHIND THIS CONVECTION SOMEWHAT...BUT SHOULD CATCH UP WITH THE LINE LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE. THUS... CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY INTO A STRONGER LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL/ERN VA AND ERN NC LATE THIS AFTN. VERTICAL WIND PROFILE WAS QUITE STRONG...AND UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE AS BUOYANCY REMAINS SOMEWHAT WEAK. BUT...GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER SUSTAINED STORMS LATE AFTN-EVE...CONVECTIVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO WILL BE THREATS. THE HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST ALONG/S OF THE WARM FRONT FROM NCNTRL/NERN NC INTO SCNTRL/SERN VA. THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROBABLY SPREAD FARTHER NWD INTO SERN PA AND SRN NEW ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT...WITH AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT AS FAR N AS CNTRL NJ/EXTREME SERN PA. ...SRN FL... PRE-FRONTAL LINEAR MCS HAS LARGELY CLEARED SRN FL...LESSENING SEVERE RISKS. SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WAS SETTLING SWD THROUGH CNTRL FL AT MID-AFTN...BUT STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT IN WAKE OF MORNING MCS AND DECREASED MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PARENT FRONT WILL PRECLUDE TSTMS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ..RACY.. 02/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 5 00:36:22 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 19:36:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060205003643.CD071D464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050034 SWODY1 SPC AC 050033 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E ILM 35 N AVC 25 WSW AOO 20 E BFD 30 NNW ITH 55 WNW GFL 20 NNE RUT 50 ESE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W EYW 40 SSE PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID-ATLANTIC... A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN US IS SPREADING VERY STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ATTM. THIS COMBINED WITH DIVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CNTRL VA. A DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST BEHIND THE LINE. AS THE BAND OF STRONG ASCENT DRIFTS EWD...THE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS MD INTO NJ THIS EVENING. THE LINE OF STORMS IS BEING FUELED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 55 TO 60 F RANGE WITH A 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS ERN VA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK...THE LOW-LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT IS CREATING A WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AS A RESULT...HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THE STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...THE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ..BROYLES.. 02/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 5 05:33:41 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 05 Feb 2006 00:33:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060205053402.2DE42D47DD@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050532 SWODY1 SPC AC 050530 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LFT 15 S POE 35 SSW SHV 20 S TXK 10 SE HOT 60 E LIT 10 ENE UOX 35 S CBM 40 SSE MEI 25 WNW GPT 20 NNW MSY LFT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS VALLEY... THE LARGE ERN US TROUGH WILL SWING QUICKLY EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SEWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES TODAY. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FORM IN THE PLAINS AND SHIFT EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DUE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN SRN AR AND NRN LA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA AT 06Z SHOW A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INVERSION MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. NAM AND GFS FORECASTS AGREE WITH DEVELOPING A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING SEWD INTO MS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE MARGINAL. ..BROYLES.. 02/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 5 12:28:23 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 05 Feb 2006 07:28:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060205122841.75EA9D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051226 SWODY1 SPC AC 051225 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0625 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2006 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE GGG 10 NNE DEQ 20 SW RUE 50 ENE LIT TUP 20 NW TCL 40 ESE MEI 30 NE MCB 15 NNW IER 40 NNE GGG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN AR/NRN LA INTO NRN MS... DEEP UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...120+ KT H25 JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ASCENT WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS UPPER JET WILL BE GREATLY AUGMENTED BY WAA ALONG NOSE OF 50+ KT SSWLY H85 JET DEVELOPING ACROSS LA/MS OVERNIGHT. NAM DEVELOPS SIGNIFICANT H85-H7 VERTICAL MOTION OVER THIS REGION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/NAMKF/WRF-NMM4 INDICATE MUCAPE WILL REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG RESULTING IN SHALLOW...ELEVATED STORMS WITH MINIMAL SEVERE RISK AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS/MOVES QUICKLY EWD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ..EVANS.. 02/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 5 16:24:37 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 05 Feb 2006 11:24:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060205162455.CA131D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051622 SWODY1 SPC AC 051620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2006 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE GGG 10 NNE DEQ 15 SSE RUE 45 SSE BVX 25 NNW TUP 20 NW TCL 40 ESE MEI 30 W MCB 25 N POE 40 NNE GGG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE MS VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF A LEE CYCLONE OVER THE OK PANHANDLE WILL DEVELOP SEWD TO NRN LA. THIS LEE CYCLONE HAS INDUCED SLY L0W-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS TX AND THE WRN GULF...WHERE A MODIFYING CONTINENTAL AIR MASS IS RETURNING NWD. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 58-62 F IN A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS THE EXTREME W/NW GULF BY TONIGHT...WHILE SOMEWHAT LESSER DEWPOINTS /LOW-MID 50S/ ARE EXPECTED FARTHER INLAND ACROSS E TX/LA. THIS MOISTURE IN A WAA REGIME SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PARCELS TO REACH SATURATION AND REALIZE WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY BY LATE TONIGHT OVER NRN LA/AR/NW MS. ..THOMPSON.. 02/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 5 20:01:41 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 05 Feb 2006 15:01:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060205200200.1A6FBD45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051959 SWODY1 SPC AC 051958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 PM CST SUN FEB 05 2006 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE GGG 40 WNW DEQ 15 WSW FSM 10 E RUE 45 SSE BVX 30 NNE TUP 20 NW TCL 40 ESE MEI 30 W MCB 25 N POE 40 NNE GGG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ARKLATEX TO LWR MS VLY... SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE SEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WAS ADVECTING MODIFIED CP AIR MASS NWD THROUGH THE WRN GULF BASIN WITH 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS AS FAR N AS HOUSTON AS OF MID-AFTN. LLJ WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...ENHANCING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE SPREADS SEWD...GRADUAL MOISTENING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION ALOFT. SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 03-12Z FROM WRN AR/NRN LA SEWD INTO THE LWR MS VLY TO SUPPORT ARCS OF ELEVATED TSTMS. THOUGH CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...POOR QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN WILL MITIGATE UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND PROSPECTS FOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. ..RACY.. 02/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 6 00:51:57 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 05 Feb 2006 19:51:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060206005216.A2E1FD45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060050 SWODY1 SPC AC 060049 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CST SUN FEB 05 2006 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ESF 20 S IER 35 SSW SHV 30 NNW GGG 40 W DEQ 10 NNE RKR 30 N RUE 30 SSW JBR 30 NNE TUP 30 E CBM 45 SSW TCL 35 S MEI 15 WSW PIB 30 W MCB 20 ESE ESF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS VALLEY... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE PLAINS STATES WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT SPREADING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING WAVE...A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 60 KT WHICH WILL CREATE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME. INITIATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY AROUND 06Z IN SRN AR AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND GFS MODELS. STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE QUICKLY DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW A STRONG INVERSION NEAR THE SFC TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP STORMS ELEVATED. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INVERSION AND VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND DRIFT SEWD INTO MS LATE TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 02/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 6 05:36:57 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 06 Feb 2006 00:36:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060206053713.43AD9D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060534 SWODY1 SPC AC 060533 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 PM CST SUN FEB 05 2006 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E BVE 15 NNW BTR 35 W MLU 30 NE ELD 35 ENE PBF 10 SW UOX 30 WNW BHM 40 NNW MCN 40 NNW SAV 20 S SAV 20 WSW SSI 40 NNW GNV 55 WSW CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN STATES... A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ONGOING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SE AR AND NRN MS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SEWD DURING THE DAY AND SFC HEATING TAKES PLACE...THE STORMS SHOULD EXPAND FROM ENE TO WSW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE STORMS MAY TRANSITION FROM AN ELEVATED NATURE TO MORE CLOSELY SFC-BASED IF THE CONVECTION CAN MOVE AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY INTO THE WARM SECTOR WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR 60 F. HOWEVER...THE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FORECAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THE STORMS WILL HAVE TROUBLE DOING SO AND MAY REDEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SEWD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON SHOW VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. HAIL WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY OR OVER THE EDGE OF THE COOL DOME. IF THE STORMS CAN MOVE OUT INTO THE WARM SECTOR AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING AS THE LINE MOVES SEWD INTO SRN GA AND FL PANHANDLE ..BROYLES.. 02/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 6 12:47:53 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 06 Feb 2006 07:47:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060206124809.0AD1FD46A6@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061245 SWODY1 SPC AC 061244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 AM CST MON FEB 06 2006 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE BPT 20 ESE POE MLU 20 W GLH 30 WSW UOX 25 W MSL 20 SSE CHA 35 SW OGB 20 NNE SSI 55 E AAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW NEAR SHV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW EXTENDING ROUGHLY E-W FROM NRN LA INTO SRN GA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH EXTENSIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION REINFORCING COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO ITS NORTH. AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS EWD...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD AND MOVE ACROSS SRN MS/SERN LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NARROW TONGUE OF LOWER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS IS EVIDENT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH GFS AND RUC BRING NEWD AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO SRN LA/FAR SRN MS TODAY. NAM APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS SURFACE DEW POINTS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY...AS IT FALSELY INITIALIZED 65+F SURFACE DEW POINTS JUST OFF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK TODAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG WITH H5 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 KT OVERSPREADING MODEST WARM SECTOR TODAY. PRIMARY CONCERN FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS TIED TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIL TO GENERATE EVEN 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE TODAY...WHICH TEMPERS CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPING VIGOROUS MOIST CONVECTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR ACROSS MODEST WARM SECTOR WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF EWD MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ..EVANS.. 02/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 6 16:34:42 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 06 Feb 2006 11:34:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060206163459.E776BD46A5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061632 SWODY1 SPC AC 061630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST MON FEB 06 2006 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE BPT 40 SE POE 30 SSE MLU 30 SSW GLH 10 S MKL 55 NNE HSV 20 SSE CHA 30 SE AGS 20 NNE SSI 55 E AAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER N TX/ERN OK/AR THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE NRN GULF STATES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID LEVEL WAVE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER NE LA WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS MS/AL TO S GA. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE NRN MS AREA IN THE REGION OF STRONGER WAA/ASCENT. S OF THIS CONVECTION...A MODIFYING CP AIR MASS /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 F/ IS RETURNING NWD TO SRN LA/MS/AL IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY BASED NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS SRN LA/MS/AL BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE MUCAPE MAY APPROACH 500 J/KG. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ..THOMPSON.. 02/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 6 19:56:46 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 06 Feb 2006 14:56:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060206195701.1CEB6D469C@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061954 SWODY1 SPC AC 061953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST MON FEB 06 2006 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE BPT 35 SSW ESF 45 NE JAN 20 NNW CBM 10 S HSV 25 E RMG 30 SE AGS 20 NNE SSI 45 WSW CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PARTS OF SERN LA/SERN MS/SWRN AL... BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR/AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER E CENTRAL MS/W CENTRAL AL...AND SWWD ALONG SURFACE FRONT INTO PARTS OF SERN LA. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION /MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AOB 500 J/KG/...STRONG/GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW -- PARTICULARLY N OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST -- IS SUPPORTING SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/WEAK ROTATION. THOUGH LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL OR A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST/BRIEF TORNADO. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD EXIST THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DECREASING THREAT INTO THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION. ..GOSS.. 02/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 7 01:03:05 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 06 Feb 2006 20:03:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060207010325.EFF7AD469C@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070101 SWODY1 SPC AC 070059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CST MON FEB 06 2006 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE HUM 15 S ASD 25 NNW GZH 15 NNE AUO 35 NW MCN 35 NNW VDI 35 WSW SAV 20 W JAX 60 ESE AAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN MS...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE THROUGH SWRN GA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN S CNTRL AL SWWD THROUGH SERN MS AND SERN LA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH SRN AL...SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT. STORMS THAT INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT FROM SERN MS THROUGH SRN AL. A 40+ KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST WITHIN ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF MODEST PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY MARGINAL WITH MUCAPE AOB 300 J/KG AND SHOULD BECOME MORE LIMITED AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES EWD AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL. NEVERTHELESS...LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND HELP TO SUSTAIN A LINE OF FORCED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THIS EVENING. SOME ORGANIZED STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED IN THE LINE AND A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER PERSISTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE SURFACE BASED. THE INCREASINGLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND TENDENCY FOR THE LOW LEVEL JET TO VEER WITH TIME SUGGEST ANY REMAINING SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 02/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 7 05:30:09 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 07 Feb 2006 00:30:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060207053025.ADA87D47DD@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070528 SWODY1 SPC AC 070526 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 PM CST MON FEB 06 2006 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN GA THROUGH FL... COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH SRN GA AND INTO NRN FL ALONG COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FROM FL INTO SRN GA. WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE ADVECTION OF SLIGHTLY RICHER MOISTURE RESIDING OVER THE NERN GULF INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR TONIGHT INTO VERY EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...OWING TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY MARGINAL AND CONFINED TO THE LAYERS UNFAVORABLE FOR ICE PRODUCTION. A BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY STILL BE IN PROGRESS WITHIN ZONE OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE FROM SERN GA INTO NRN FL EARLY TUESDAY...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR UNFAVORABLE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. CONVECTION OVER FL SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE STRONGER FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT GRADUALLY LIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND AS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE. ..DIAL.. 02/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 7 12:33:32 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 07 Feb 2006 07:33:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060207123344.D45C4D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071231 SWODY1 SPC AC 071230 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 AM CST TUE FEB 07 2006 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PLAINS TO ATLANTIC COAST... TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW...A BROAD CYCLONIC BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY...AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. A SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD IMPULSE HAS PROGRESSED THROUGH ALL BUT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ACCELERATES ACROSS THE MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND AT LEAST A WEAK RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THIS REGION WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLDER NORTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES...AND WITH LITTLE OR NO FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL INHIBITION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ...PACIFIC COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES... A CLOSED LOW HAS BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...OVER THE LOWER LATITUDE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC/MEXICAN PLATEAU. AS THIS OCCURS...BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. DRY...GENERALLY STABLE...SUBSIDENT REGIME WILL MINIMIZE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ..KERR.. 02/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 7 15:46:04 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 07 Feb 2006 10:46:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060207154616.18561D46A9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071544 SWODY1 SPC AC 071542 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0942 AM CST TUE FEB 07 2006 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A REX BLOCK OVER THE PAC COAST...AND A BROAD DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. A NARROW BELT OF MOISTURE AND VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY COINCIDES WITH THE FRONT...BUT REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. ..THOMPSON.. 02/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 7 20:27:09 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 07 Feb 2006 15:27:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060207202729.A6944D46A9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071948 SWODY1 SPC AC 071946 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0146 PM CST TUE FEB 07 2006 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL... BROAD BAND OF CLOUDINESS AND SHALLOW CONVECTION CONTINUES ITS SWD ADVANCE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT. ..DARROW.. 02/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 8 00:56:40 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 07 Feb 2006 19:56:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060208005651.597E1D4948@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080054 SWODY1 SPC AC 080052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CST TUE FEB 07 2006 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..DIAL.. 02/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 8 04:53:59 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 07 Feb 2006 23:53:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060208045409.6206FD5227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080452 SWODY1 SPC AC 080450 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 PM CST TUE FEB 07 2006 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TN VALLEY AREA... A STRONG VORT MAX AND ATTENDANT MID LEVEL JET WILL MOVE SSEWD AND INTO THE TN VALLEY AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A POCKET OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET WILL SPREAD INTO THE TN VALLEY AROUND THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...A LARGE CP AIRMASS HAS SPREAD OVER THIS REGION WITH OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE GULF RESULTING IN A COOL...DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY WITHIN THE ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEWD MOVING UPPER JET. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHALLOW CONVECTION. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. ..DIAL.. 02/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 8 12:52:58 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 08 Feb 2006 07:52:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060208125308.E3088D43D1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081250 SWODY1 SPC AC 081249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CST WED FEB 08 2006 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PLAINS INTO ATLANTIC COAST STATES... A BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME PERSISTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES... WITH ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THIS IMPULSE WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD INTO/THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO/ TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD/DRY AIR...WHICH WILL FURTHER STABILIZE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES. STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK ACCOMPANYING UPPER SYSTEM LIKELY WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR WEAK/LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THROUGH PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS TOO SMALL TO DELINEATE A 10% COVERAGE LINE...BUT SOME MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. POTENTIAL SHOULD END BY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...PACIFIC COAST STATES/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN CUT-OFF FROM PRIMARY BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES...SOUTH OF UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES. IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MAY SUPPORT EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS BAJA INTO PARTS OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE U.S. BORDER THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ..KERR.. 02/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 8 16:05:18 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 08 Feb 2006 11:05:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060208160527.467C6D464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081600 SWODY1 SPC AC 081558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0958 AM CST WED FEB 08 2006 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE PAC COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY AND ERN STATES. ONE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY TONIGHT...WHILE ANOTHER WAVE DIGS SEWD FROM SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG ASCENT MAY ALLOW SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO WRN TN/KY IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AREA. OTHERWISE...THE SRN STREAM LOW W OF BAJA SHOULD REMAIN TOO FAR SW TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN SRN AZ/NM. ..THOMPSON.. 02/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 8 19:52:46 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 08 Feb 2006 14:52:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060208195255.4820ED46C8@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081951 SWODY1 SPC AC 081949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 PM CST WED FEB 08 2006 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF RAIN/SNOW -- POSSIBLY INCLUDING SHALLOW CONVECTION -- WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF VORT MAX NOW CROSSING SERN MO. ANY INSTABILITY HOWEVER WILL REMAIN WITHIN A SHALLOW/LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC LAYER -- THUS UNSUPPORTIVE OF DEEPER/LIGHTNING-PRODUCING CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS STABLE AIRMASS PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. ..GOSS.. 02/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 9 00:48:18 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 08 Feb 2006 19:48:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060209004825.B2161D43D1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090046 SWODY1 SPC AC 090044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CST WED FEB 08 2006 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES MEAN TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS AND REX PATTERN OVER W COAST...INCLUDING CUT-OFF LOW FCST TO MOVE EWD OVER N-CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA TONIGHT. CONTINENTAL SFC HIGH THAT COVERS MUCH OF CONUS E OF ROCKIES BRIDGES SFC COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS AND SEWD OVER TN VALLEY. UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES MOST OF WRN STATES. THESE FEATURES WILL PROMOTE DRY AND/OR STABLE AIR MASS UNSUITABLE FOR TSTMS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. ..EDWARDS.. 02/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 9 05:15:06 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 09 Feb 2006 00:15:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060209051513.BE9B7D46C8@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090513 SWODY1 SPC AC 090511 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 PM CST WED FEB 08 2006 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 70 SSW SJT SJT SEP CRS 50 SSE CRS CLL 45 WNW VCT LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BASIC MID/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN RIDGE OVER W COAST AND ERN STATES TROUGH. HOWEVER...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DETAILS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN THUNDER PROBABILITIES LATE...COMPARED TO PROHIBITIVELY DRY/STABLE AIR MASS NOW OVER CONUS. STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SASK -- WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD UPPER MS VALLEY...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS FROM WRN GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...MID/UPPER CYCLONE -- NOW CUT OFF OVER BAJA SPUR AMIDST PREVAILING REX PATTERN -- IS FCST TO ACCELERATE EWD FROM MEAN RIDGE POSITION. THIS FEATURE WILL LOSE SOME AMPLITUDE...BECOMING POSITIVELY TILED AND OPEN-WAVE TROUGH...AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS NRN MEX AND FAR W TX. INTENSE SFC COLD FRONT -- ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM PERTURBATION -- WILL PLUNGE SWD ALONG FAVORED HIGH PLAINS CORRIDOR TO NEAR PERMIAN BASIN OF W TX BY 10/12Z...EXTENDING ENEWD THROUGH ARKLATEX REGION THEN NNEWD INTO SFC LOW LOCATED NEAR LS SHORELINE OF WI. LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL INTENSIFY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND ATOP STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL PRECEDE FROPA THROUGH 10/12Z. ...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL TX... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT -- MAINLY DURING LAST FEW HOURS OF PERIOD...ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED MOIST/UNSTABLE LAYER. MRGL MIDLEVEL BUOYANCY MAY DEVELOP AS PARTIALLY MODIFIED AIR MASS ADVECTS NWWD OFF WRN GULF...FOLLOWING ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVING TRAJECTORIES INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL TX ALONG ASCENDING ISENTROPIC SURFACES. ASSOCIATED LIFT MAY RAISE PARCELS TO LFC...RESULTING IN TSTMS. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE ROOTED INVOF 850 MB -- ALONG AND W OF 35-45 KT LLJ. LACK OF MORE ROBUST MOISTURE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK MUCAPES OF LESS THAN 200 J/KG...PRECLUDE PROBABILITIES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE UNTIL AFTER END OF PERIOD. ..EDWARDS.. 02/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 9 13:03:45 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 09 Feb 2006 08:03:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060209130350.C2D52D4939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091301 SWODY1 SPC AC 091300 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 AM CST THU FEB 09 2006 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ELP CNM BGS ABI 35 SSE FTW 45 NNE CLL 50 S CLL 15 SSE SAT 55 ESE DRT 10 SSE DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BLOCK PERSISTS IN UPPER FLOW NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST...WITH SPLIT BELTS OF POLAR WESTERLIES MERGING INTO BROAD DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SERIES OF COLD INTRUSIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WITHIN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME HAVE STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT REINFORCING INTRUSION OF COLD AIR THROUGH THE PLAINS IS LIKELY LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALREADY DIGGING IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES TODAY...AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO PROGRESS TOWARD NORTHERN PACIFIC COASTAL UPPER RIDGE AXIS...SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE EAST OF BAJA. MODELS SUGGEST LATTER FEATURE WILL PROGRESS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS BIG BEND BY 12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED AND MERGING INTO STRONGER FLOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. ...TEXAS... DRY/STABLE SOUNDINGS ARE CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN MORNING RAOB DATA ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING WILL OCCUR BY LATE TONIGHT. AT LOWER LEVELS...THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO INLAND ADVECTION OF MOISTENING WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER. AT THE SAME TIME...INFLUX OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE PROFILES FROM TOP DOWN. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST INCREASING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL TEXAS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT NEAR CORE OF WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM CIRCULATION COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND THE BIG BEND REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THIS FORCING SPREADS EASTWARD INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...AND AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE THREAT. ..KERR.. 02/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 9 16:24:10 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 09 Feb 2006 11:24:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060209162414.EE626D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091621 SWODY1 SPC AC 091619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 AM CST THU FEB 09 2006 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 55 NE DUG 20 NE INK 50 WSW MWL 30 SE DAL 45 SE CRS 40 SSW UTS 20 NNE VCT 20 NNW NIR 65 NW LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SERN STATES WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY WHILE AN UPSTREAM WAVE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AMPLIFIES SSEWD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A RIDGE IS MAINTAINED ALONG THE PAC COAST. IN THE SRN STREAM...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY N OF E TODAY TOWARD SE AZ/SW NM...AND THEN MORE EWD TOWARD SW TX TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED INVOF THE US/MEXICO BORDER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASCENT E/NE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW COULD ALLOW MID LEVEL CONVECTION IN NW MEXICO TO SPREAD INTO EXTREME SE AZ/SW NM THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...A WAA REGIME WILL STRENGTHEN OVER TX AS THE NW MEXICO TROUGH EJECTS EWD...WHILE A MODIFYING CP AIR MASS RETURNS NWD FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY 10/06-12Z ACROSS CENTRAL TX. ..THOMPSON.. 02/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 9 19:48:47 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 09 Feb 2006 14:48:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060209194853.C5A11D46A7@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091946 SWODY1 SPC AC 091944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CST THU FEB 09 2006 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 55 NE DUG 55 ENE HOB 70 S CDS 30 SE DAL 45 SE CRS 40 SSW UTS 20 NNE VCT 20 NNW NIR 65 NW LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN ROCKIES TO SWRN/CNTRL TX... CLOSED LOW OVER NWRN SONORA IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH... PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM...AND THEN TRANSLATE EWD TOWARD THE TX HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. THOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IS LIMITED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/DESERT SW...ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING OF THE MID- TROPOSPHERE... SUPPORTING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED TSTMS. THE SAME PLUME OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL ADVECT DOWNSTREAM INTO SWRN/CNTRL TX LATER TONIGHT. CONCURRENTLY...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO GRADUAL LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS...ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN OF A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR BANDS OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN/CNTRL TX AFTER 06Z WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER CNTRL TX. ..RACY.. 02/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 10 00:55:27 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 09 Feb 2006 19:55:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060210005531.42DD4D465B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100052 SWODY1 SPC AC 100051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CST THU FEB 09 2006 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW TUS 45 SW SVC 45 NNE HOB 40 WSW GYI 40 S PRX 20 ESE LFK 20 E HOU 20 SW LBX 35 NE CRP 15 WNW LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX/SRN NM/SRN AZ... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ENTERING NRN MEXICO ATTM. A DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL JET MAX IS EVIDENT ON THE SRN SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH WILL PUNCH EWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL TX TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE GRADUALLY ERODING A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF TX. AS A RESULT...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF TX TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW...WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL AID THE DEVELOPING STORMS AND AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE BUT VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY STORM ACTIVITY RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH DAYBREAK. ..BROYLES.. 02/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 10 05:59:12 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2006 00:59:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060210055915.5B5BBD469C@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100556 SWODY1 SPC AC 100555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CST THU FEB 09 2006 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SE ELP BGS MWL FTW DAL 40 SE PRX HOT LIT MEM MSL HSV RMG ATL MCN VLD 50 WSW CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN IS FCST TO REINFORCE PERSISTENT MEAN TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS. STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SMALL EMBEDDED CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF ND/MN BORDER -- IS FCST TO DIG GENERALLY SSEWD WITH CYCLONE CENTER BETWEEN NERN MO AND CENTRAL IL BY END OF PERIOD. AS ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR OVER SRN PLAINS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...UPPER LOW NOW OVER NWRN MEX WILL OPEN...DEAMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS NERN MEX AND SRN TX EARLY IN PERIOD. ASSOCIATED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THEN WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NWRN GULF OVERNIGHT...LOSING MOST OF ITS DEFINITION AMIDST TIGHTENING HEIGHT/FLOW GRADIENTS THAT WILL RESULT FROM MID/UPPER MS VALLEY CYCLONE. STRONG SFC COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS AND WRN MO -- IS FCST TO SWEEP SEWD TOWARD TX COAST EARLY IN PERIOD. CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THIS FRONT OVER NE TX IN RESPONSE TO APCHG SRN STREAM TROUGH...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING EWD TO VICINITY ERN AL/SWRN GA BY 11/12Z. MEANWHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS NWRN AND N-CENTRAL GULF. ...TX COASTAL PLAIN... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED BY 10/18Z OVER MID/UPPER TX COASTAL AREA...AN EWD SHIFT/EXTENSION OF ELEVATED THUNDER REGIME NOW EVIDENT OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA. WAA AND WEAK MIDLEVEL DPVA...AMIDST CONTINUING MOIST ADVECTION AND WEAK CINH...SHOULD LEAD TO MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG OVER PORTIONS TX COASTAL PLAIN BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE...WITH 0-6 KM SHEARS 60-70 KT INDICATED IN FCST SOUNDINGS. MAIN CONCERN ATTM -- WHICH IS PRECLUDING A CATEGORICAL SEVERE RISK -- IS LACK OF MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION...A CONDITION ASSOCIATED BOTH WITH PARTLY MODIFIED RETURN AIR MASS AND LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS/PRECIP REINFORCING NEAR-SFC STABILITY FOR MUCH OF DAY. INCOMPLETE STAGE OF MARINE AIR MASS MODIFICATION REMAINS EVIDENT IN CURRENT W GULF SFC OBS OF 50S F DEW POINTS...AND IN CHARACTER OF MARINE STRATOCU FIELD APPARENT IN LAST VIS IMAGERY AND CURRENT IR. CLOUD BREAKS AND POCKETS OF SUSTAINED INSOLATION MAY LEAD TO SFC-BASED BUOYANCY AND AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE...HOWEVER...AND AN UPGRADE MAY BE NECESSARY ONCE INFLUENCING MESOSCALE CLOUD/PRECIP PATTERNS BECOME MORE CERTAIN. ...LA TO FL PANHANDLE... EXPECT BLEND OF PREFRONTAL/CLUSTERED CONVECTIVE REGIME AND FRONTALLY FORCED LINE TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS LA WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. WEAK DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY...AND LINEAR MODE SHOULD DOMINATE GIVEN PROGGED GEOMETRY OF DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES COMPARED TO ALIGNMENT OF MAIN FORCING BOUNDARY. STILL...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS IN FCST WIND PROFILES CAUSE SOME CONCERN FOR TORNADOES FROM EITHER BOW ECHO CIRCULATIONS OR PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLS. PROBABILITY WOULD JUMP INTO CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK CRITERIA GIVEN JUST SLGTLY MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED BUOYANCY NEAR COAST THAN PRESENTLY INDICATED. UPGRADE MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME PORTION OF CENTRAL/SRN GULF COAST AS WELL...PARTICULARLY AL COAST AND WRN FL PANHANDLE...IF NARROW SLIVER OF MOST STRONGLY MODIFIED MARINE AIR REACHES COAST DURING 11/06Z-11/12Z TIME FRAME. ..EDWARDS.. 02/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 10 12:29:06 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2006 07:29:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060210122910.A58BED4725@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101227 SWODY1 SPC AC 101225 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0625 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2006 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SE ELP BGS 35 ENE ABI 35 E DAL 25 WNW ELD 35 W UOX HSV RMG 30 ESE LGC 35 WSW ABY 15 WSW AAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND A SECOND UPPER TROUGH ROTATING SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF CO/KS/NEB. THESE SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO PHASE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...RESULTING IN RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. GULF MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED DUE TO RECENT SURGES OF COLD/DRY AIR DEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF TX INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. ...TX/LA GULF COAST TO FL PANHANDLE... NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF EAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE IS HELPING TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION...LEADING TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX. ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY/NIGHT... SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF AR/LA/MS/AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW ZONE OF 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST FROM THE CRP AREA INTO SOUTHERN LA THROUGH THE DAY. MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAY LIMIT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL THREAT. THUS WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. ..HART.. 02/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 10 16:23:08 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2006 11:23:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060210162310.C0042D465B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101620 SWODY1 SPC AC 101618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2006 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE CRP 35 SSW JCT 35 NNW BWD 35 E DAL 15 SSE LIT 35 NNE UOX 20 NW GAD 20 NE ANB 15 ESE LGC 10 SSE ABY 50 WSW CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PHASING OF SRN BRANCH S/WV NOW MOVING INTO W TX AND THE COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING SEWD THRU THE CENTRAL U.S. IS UNDERWAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW VICINITY UPPER TX COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW THEN GRADUALLY DEEPENING AS IT MOVES ENEWD ACROSS GULF STATES TONIGHT. ONGOING MOISTURE RETURN FROM WESTERN GULF HAS SPREAD LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ONSHORE TX COAST THIS AM. AS PRESSURE FALLS SPREAD EWD ACROSS GULF STATES SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND GIVEN LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THAT WILL LIMIT AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. MLCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP IN GULF COASTAL AREAS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON SERN TX...PARTICULARLY COASTAL AREAS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE GIVEN THE MINIMAL INSTABILITY. OVERNIGHT THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS CENTRAL GULF COAST AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SRN LA/SRN MS AND AL. STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE COASTAL AREAS MAINTAINING A POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER RISK OF SEVERE SHOULD REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. ..HALES.. 02/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 10 19:56:47 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2006 14:56:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060210195649.A600DD464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101955 SWODY1 SPC AC 101953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2006 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E CRP 10 N NIR 30 ESE BAZ 45 SSE CRS 15 W SHV 35 SSW GLH 35 NNE MEI 30 E TOI 15 S ABY 50 WSW CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF COAST... BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN WITH LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ON THE UPPER TX COAST AND 100+ NM S OF LA AT MID-AFTN. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCELERATE LATER TODAY AS THE UPSTREAM PLAINS TROUGH DIGS SWD...ADVECTING THE MODIFIED CP AIR MASS FURTHER NWD TO ALONG A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. DEVELOPING WARM CONVEYOR BELT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING ELEVATED STORMS ALL DAY ACROSS ERN TX. STRONGER UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN ATTEMPTING TO ROOT INTO THE INCREASING UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST WHERE MLCAPES WERE 250-500 J/KG. THE CAP HAS BEEN HOLDING STRONG...THOUGH...AND ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING/MOISTENING TO ERASE CINH SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED TSTMS. VERTICAL/LOW-LEVEL SHEARS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. BUT... PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK BUOYANCY. LATER TONIGHT...A WEAK LOW...NOW ANALYZED OVER THE MIDDLE TX COAST...WILL TRANSLATE/DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TRACK OF THE LOW SHOULD BE RIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST...OR SLIGHTLY INLAND. SO...DESPITE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS/TORNADOES...WEAKER LAPSE RATES /COMPARED TO UPSTREAM OVER TX/ AND MINIMAL BUOYANCY WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. A STRONGER STORM MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST AND/OR TORNADO LATER TONIGHT AS FAR EAST AS COASTAL LA/MS/AL/FL...BUT THREATS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO MAINTAIN ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..RACY.. 02/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 11 00:59:16 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2006 19:59:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060211005917.EB4CCD43D9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110057 SWODY1 SPC AC 110055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2006 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE 45 NNE MFE 50 ENE CRP 20 SW LCH ESF 40 NW JAN 30 SW 0A8 30 S AUO 25 SW ABY 50 SSE TLH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FEATURES W COAST RIDGE AND MEAN TROUGH DOMINATING CENTRAL/ERN CONUS FLOW FIELDS. PRIMARY FEATURE WILL REMAIN LARGE CYCLONE ALOFT -- CENTER OF WHICH NOW IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF SUX. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SSEWD ALONG AND JUST E OF MO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...TOWARD SRN IA AND NRN MO. AS THIS OCCURS...VORTICITY PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH POSITIVELY TILTED SRN STREAM TROUGH OVER NERN MEX AND S-CENTRAL TX WILL ELONGATE ENE-WSW. NRN PORTION OF LATTER PERTURBATION WILL MOVE EWD ALONG UPPER TX/LA COAST AND WEAKEN. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER SE TX IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS SRN AL OVERNIGHT. INTENSE COLD FRONT...EXTENDING SWWD FROM LOW...WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS LA AND MUCH OF NWRN GULF. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MARINE/WARM FRONT FROM NEAR S-CENTRAL LA COAST SEWD TO VICINITY BUOY 42003...OR ABOUT 225 NM SSW AAF. THIS BOUNDARY DIFFUSELY DEMARCATES SOME IMMATURELY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR CHARACTERIZING FL AND ERN GULF FROM SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST MARINE TRANSFORMATION THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER S-CENTRAL/WRN GULF. ...GULF COASTAL PLAIN... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EVIDENT IN FRONTALLY FORCED LINE FROM SRN MS SWWD TO JUST OFFSHORE MID/UPPER TX COAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD/SEWD OVER GULF AND REMAINDER LA/MS COASTAL REGION WITH INTERMITTENT/MRGL SEVERE POTENTIAL. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 123 FOR NOWCAST DETAILS. OVERNIGHT POTENTIAL FOR NEARLY SFC-BASED CONVECTION...AND RELATED PROBABILITIES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE...STRONGLY DEPENDS ON POSITION OF MARINE FRONT RELATIVE TO COAST. EVEN THEN...AIR MASS TO ITS SW WILL NOT BE FULLY ADJUSTED TO STATE OF OPEN-GULF/AIR-SEA EQUILIBRIUM...LEAVING SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S F OVER COASTAL WATERS PASSED BY THIS FRONT. WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES -- EVIDENT IN LIX/LCH RAOBS AT 00Z -- WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO LIMITED BUOYANCY. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE PARCELS MAY REACH SFC IN AIR MASS SW OF MARINE FRONT...HOWEVER...AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT ROTATION IN ANY DISCRETE CELLS OR LEWP/BOW CONFIGURATIONS THAT CAN DEVELOP. THEREFORE...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUST OR ROGUE TORNADO NEAR COAST CANNOT BE CATEGORICALLY ELIMINATED. WILL MAINTAIN MRGL SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM WITHOUT CATEGORICAL AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 02/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 11 05:11:17 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 00:11:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060211051118.7AD70D464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110509 SWODY1 SPC AC 110508 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2006 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW PNS 25 SSE TOI VDI 40 SE CHS ...CONT... 50 NNE MLB 55 WSW PBI 40 ESE MTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY MEAN TROUGH INVOF MS VALLEY AND HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER W COAST STATES. PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW -- EVIDENT ATTM IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY NEAR OMA. THIS LOW SHOULD REDEVELOP EWD TOWARD OH BY 12/00Z...WHILE CURRENT CENTER BECOMES PART OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD TOWARD WRN TN. ASSOCIATED STRONG SFC COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED SRN AL SWWD ACROSS NWRN GULF ATTM -- IS FCST TO SWEEP SEWD ACROSS MOST OF GULF...FL...GA AND CAROLINAS THROUGH PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR IN TUNE WITH VIGOROUS E COAST CYCLOGENESIS...WITH DEEP SFC LOW PROGGED E OF DELMARVA AND S OF LONG ISLAND BY END OF PERIOD. MARINE WARM FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM NEAR MS RIVER MOUTH SEWD PAST BUOY 42003 -- SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY OFFSHORE BUT MAY BRUSH COASTAL AREAS OF FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN PERIOD. ...COASTAL WRN/CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE... BAND OF TSTMS NOW EVIDENT INVOF COLD FRONT -- FROM SRN AL ACROSS SERN LA -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING E ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH MORNING. WITH MEAN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES BARELY GREATER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC...BUOYANCY WILL BE MARGINAL AND ELEVATED OVER MOST OF REGION...PRECLUDING SEVERE PROBABILITIES EXCEPT ALONG SMALL PART OF FL PANHANDLE COAST BEFORE ABOUT 11/18Z. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...EXPECT STRONG WAA ATOP RELATIVELY STABLE NEAR SFC LAYER N OF MARINE FRONT...AND DECREASING SLOPE/DEPTH OF FRONTAL SFC. THIS MAY RESULT IN EFFECTIVE PARCELS ROOTING CLOSE TO GROUND LEVEL...CAUSING MARGINAL PROBABILITY FOR TORNADO OR DAMAGING GUST AMIDST ENVIRONMENT OF IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 02/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 11 12:48:48 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 07:48:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060211124851.20E30D468B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111246 SWODY1 SPC AC 111245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW PFN 15 WSW MGR 35 NNE SAV 60 E CHS ...CONT... 65 ESE DAB 20 NW AGR 50 SW SRQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN STATES TODAY...WHILE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ROTATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM GA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED IN WARM SECTOR OF LOW ACROSS PARTS OF GA/FL/SC...WITH MUCAPE VALUES AOB 250 J/KG. HOWEVER...STRONG LIFT NEAR LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE VERY STRONG AS 100KT+ MID LEVEL JET ROTATES ACROSS REGION...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY. ..HART.. 02/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 11 16:16:21 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 11:16:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060211161622.57B6AD46AA@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111610 SWODY1 SPC AC 111609 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1009 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE DAB 20 NW AGR 50 SW SRQ ...CONT... 35 NNW PIE 20 ESE OCF 25 NNE DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... THE BROAD ZONE OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THRU SRN GA AND FL PANHANDLE HAS EVOLVED INTO MOSTLY STRATIFORM TYPE OVER LAND WITH ANY AVAILABLE INSTABILITY NOW WELL OFFSHORE OVER GULF OF MEXICO. GOOD HEATING AND MOISTENING AHEAD OF PRECIPITATION BAND OVER FL PENINSULA WILL DEVELOP SOME WEAK INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT MLCAPES MUCH ABOVE ZERO THUS ANY THUNDER THAN CAN DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL PENINSULA SHOULD BE LIMITED IN AREA AND INTENSITY. EVEN WITH THE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES PROVIDED BY THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING THRU THE ERN U.S. SEVERE STORMS NOT EXPECTED. ..HALES.. 02/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 11 19:44:04 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 14:44:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060211194405.9006ED4925@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111942 SWODY1 SPC AC 111940 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL FL... A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS CNTRL FL AT MID-AFTN. THE STRONGEST REFLECTIVITY WAS CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE FL WCOAST WWD INTO THE ERN GULF BASIN WHERE BUOYANCY WAS THE STRONGEST. 16Z XMR SOUNDING AND 17-18Z AIRCRAFT ASCENTS FROM KMCO...KRSW AND KMIA SUGGEST THE MID-TROPOSPHERE WAS RATHER WARM /H5 TEMPERATURES MINUS 10-12 DEGREES C/ RESULTING IN WEAK LAPSE RATES. MOREOVER...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED AND OVERALL MASS CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL. THUS...IT APPEARS THE TSTM THREAT IS MINIMAL AND DOES NOT JUSTIFY A 10 PERCENT GENERAL TSTM OUTLOOK. NONETHELESS...THE FORCED LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. ..RACY.. 02/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 12 00:59:36 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 19:59:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060212005938.61BFBD468B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120057 SWODY1 SPC AC 120055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A LARGE ERN US TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH A WIDE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING ENEWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SEWD PROGRESSION ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN FL THIS EVENING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE WEST COAST SUGGESTING MOST OF THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 02/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 12 05:36:49 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 12 Feb 2006 00:36:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060212053650.C38F0D45FF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120534 SWODY1 SPC AC 120533 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A LARGE CNTRL AND ERN US TROUGH WILL REINFORCE SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS TODAY. AS A RESULT...NORTH TO NELY FLOW IN THE SRN STATES WILL PREVENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RETURNING NWD. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY COOL SFC TEMPS AND VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL MAKE CONVECTION UNLIKELY THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 02/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 12 12:48:26 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 12 Feb 2006 07:48:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060212124827.1EF5BD45A3@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121246 SWODY1 SPC AC 121244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2006 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES TODAY...WITH SERIES OF VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGHS PASSING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT IN BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MD INTO CT. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...NO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY. ..HART.. 02/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 12 16:19:22 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 12 Feb 2006 11:19:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060212161925.31B7FD4936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121617 SWODY1 SPC AC 121615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1015 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2006 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... INTENSE NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST. EARLIER EMBEDDED CONVECTION/ISOLATED LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE SNOW BANDS FROM NJ-CT HAS ENDED. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE SOME WEAK CAPE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER SHIFTING NEWD UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED LIGHTNING WITH ANY THREAT ENDING BY MID AFTERNOON. ..HALES.. 02/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 12 19:47:15 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 12 Feb 2006 14:47:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060212194716.C1685D4946@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121945 SWODY1 SPC AC 121943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2006 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..RACY.. 02/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 13 00:45:42 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 12 Feb 2006 19:45:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060213004543.6DCE0D46C5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130043 SWODY1 SPC AC 130042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2006 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN US WILL KEEP NWLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...COOL AND DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. EAST OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...NLY SFC WINDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL SUPPRESS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN MAKING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY. ..BROYLES.. 02/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 13 05:54:19 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 13 Feb 2006 00:54:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060213055420.F3D2FD46C5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130552 SWODY1 SPC AC 130550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2006 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS AS AN EAST COAST TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE SRN US AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NCNTRL US. IN RESPONSE TO THE SFC HIGH...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS...CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 02/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 13 12:40:24 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 13 Feb 2006 07:40:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060213124025.4ECE9D45BD@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131238 SWODY1 SPC AC 131236 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 AM CST MON FEB 13 2006 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NATION TODAY. ..HART.. 02/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 13 15:39:09 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 13 Feb 2006 10:39:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060213153910.C3A75D45A3@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131536 SWODY1 SPC AC 131535 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0935 AM CST MON FEB 13 2006 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER ALL OF CONUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ..HALES.. 02/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 13 19:08:40 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 13 Feb 2006 14:08:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060213190851.3E06CD45BD@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131906 SWODY1 SPC AC 131905 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 PM CST MON FEB 13 2006 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...EAST OF ROCKIES... AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY FROM SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND FLOW DEAMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EAST...SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER IN ITS WAKE WILL BE TOO SLOW TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGGING TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. ...WEST OF ROCKIES... A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. HOWEVER...COLD/DRY LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE CASCADES... AND LACK OF ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WEST...WILL MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ..KERR.. 02/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 14 00:51:30 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 13 Feb 2006 19:51:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060214005133.8D0B4D468B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140049 SWODY1 SPC AC 140047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST MON FEB 13 2006 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WILL BECOME ZONAL TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS SWD INTO THE WRN US. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN US WILL DRIFT EWD AS A TROUGH ORGANIZES IN THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NWD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES LATE TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE SCNTRL US IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. THIS COMBINED WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS WILL PROHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 02/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 14 05:52:41 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 14 Feb 2006 00:52:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060214055242.34032D45A3@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140550 SWODY1 SPC AC 140548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CST MON FEB 13 2006 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLM 30 ESE AST 35 SW EUG 70 SSW EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A BROAD BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER WRN CANADA WILL DRIFT SWD AND AMPLIFY ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST STATES. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAINFALL. NAM/NAMKF/GFS/SREF FORECASTS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...SPREADING PRECIPITATION SWD ACROSS WRN WA...WRN ORE AND NRN CA. A COLD POCKET AT MID-LEVELS WILL BRING STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS NRN CA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF WA...ORE AND NRN CA. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. ..BROYLES.. 02/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 14 12:57:56 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 14 Feb 2006 07:57:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060214125757.50F09D4653@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141256 SWODY1 SPC AC 141254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2006 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLM 30 ESE AST 35 SW EUG 70 SSW EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO FAST ZONAL FLOW TODAY...WITH MAIN UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS...PRECLUDING ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS EVERYWHERE BUT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ...WA/ORE... ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG AND OFF THE WA/ORE COAST. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THIS REGION. OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE THREAT. ..HART.. 02/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 14 16:08:24 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 14 Feb 2006 11:08:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060214160825.0D2FDD45BC@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141605 SWODY1 SPC AC 141604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1004 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2006 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... COLD TROUGH DROPPING SWD THRU PAC NW. ONSHORE COMPONENT HAS WEAKENED ALONG WA/OR COAST OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY BECOMING OFFSHORE. EVEN WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...EXPECT ONLY WEAK LOW TOPPED CONVECTION W OF CASCADES. ANY ASSOCIATED LIGHTNING NOW EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED...THUS EARLIER GENERAL THUNDER AREA HAS BEEN DROPPED. ..HALES.. 02/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 14 19:00:16 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 14 Feb 2006 14:00:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060214190017.7D66DD4653@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141858 SWODY1 SPC AC 141856 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2006 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE/BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DROPPING SWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S./ROCKIES THIS PERIOD. EMBEDDED SHORTER-WAVELENGTH TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED/STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE -- MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DRY/STABLE AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS PRECLUDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ..GOSS.. 02/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 15 00:51:39 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 14 Feb 2006 19:51:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060215005139.A69DFD45BD@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150049 SWODY1 SPC AC 150047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2006 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WRN STATES TONIGHT. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND COLD AIR ALOFT IN THE CORE OF THE TROUGH MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF WA...ORE AND NRN CA. HOWEVER...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A 10 % PROBABILITY ATTM. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 02/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 15 05:53:49 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 00:53:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060215055350.18490D46A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150551 SWODY1 SPC AC 150550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2006 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC COASTAL STATES WILL ROTATE AND SLIDE EWD INTO THE ROCKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A STRONG 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INCREASE MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE REGION...SFC DEWPOINTS MAY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S F IN THE OH VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPED WARM SECTOR...FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE SFC TROUGH CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS THE STRONGER WESTERLIES SHIFT SWD ACROSS THE REGION...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. ..BROYLES.. 02/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 15 07:11:23 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 02:11:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060215071123.82638D45BD@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150709 SWODY1 SPC AC 150708 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED LAST SENTENCE AND HEADLINE ABOVE A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC COASTAL STATES WILL ROTATE AND SLIDE EWD INTO THE ROCKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A STRONG 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INCREASE MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE REGION...SFC DEWPOINTS MAY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S F IN THE OH VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPED WARM SECTOR...FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE SFC TROUGH CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS THE STRONGER WESTERLIES SHIFT SWD ACROSS THE REGION...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ..BROYLES.. 02/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 15 13:03:09 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 08:03:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060215130309.ACBE1D464E@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151300 SWODY1 SPC AC 151259 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID MS VALLEY... FAST ZONAL FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS THE UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF CO/KS/OK IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN WARM SECTOR OF LOW WILL HELP TRANSPORT MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ACROSS PARTS OF IL/MO/IND...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. ...CO/UT/WY... ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ALSO OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES PARTS OF WY/UT/CO. RAPIDLY COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG ASCENT WILL AID THREAT. ..HART.. 02/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 15 16:06:28 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 11:06:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060215160632.3FF7BD464E@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151603 SWODY1 SPC AC 151601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1001 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... STRONG POLAR JET EXTENDS FROM CA ENEWD THRU GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. AN EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS IS MOVING QUICKLY IN THE STRONG FLOW AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN REGION CROSSES CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ALONG CENTRAL KS/OK BORDER WILL FILL AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY TO THE E. STRONGER SURFACE LOW SRN UT TRACKS TO LEE OF CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER TONIGHT. FRONTAL ZONE FROM OHIO VALLEY THRU THE PLAINS SURFACE LOW WILL SHOW LITTLE OVERALL SWD MOVEMENT AS PRESSURES FALL CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH. MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE IS RAPIDLY RETURNING NWD FROM ERN TX/LA INTO LOWER MO VALLEY AND THIS PROCESS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU FORECAST PERIOD. COMBINATION OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE AND MOISTURE INCREASE WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT TONIGHT PORTIONS OF LOWER MO AND MID MS VALLEYS. WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 7C/KM AND POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CAPES AOA 500 J/KG A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SMALL HAIL THREAT. ..HALES.. 02/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 15 19:52:22 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 14:52:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060215195222.BDB43D4609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151950 SWODY1 SPC AC 151949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... RETURN FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ONGOING IN WAKE OF RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE /CENTER OF WHICH IS NOW SHIFTING EAST OF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS/. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE STILL ONLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S...BUT SLOW MODIFICATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TONGUE OF MID 50S+ SURFACE DEW POINTS HAS ADVECTED INLAND THROUGH MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS. THOUGH SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...THIS SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. ...LOWER OHIO VALLEY... WARMING LOW/MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAP MOISTURE RETURN EAST OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WILL REMAIN WEAKER THROUGH PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS WEAKENING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELEVATED LEADING EDGE OF BETTER MOISTURE RETURN ALREADY APPEARS TO HAVE SPREAD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... WHERE WEAK/SHALLOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT PERSISTS/DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS POSSIBLE...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THE 16/03-06Z TIME FRAME. ...LOWER MISSOURI/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO AWAIT APPROACH OF VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS STILL PROGRESSING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT...IN EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK DEVELOPING EAST OF TROUGH AXIS...IS PROGGED INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH SEEM MOST LIKELY ABOVE SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION...NEAR STRONGER THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...VICINITY OF THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LARGER CAPE AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HAIL A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE WARM FRONT...BUT CAPPING SEEMS LIKELY TO HOLD ACROSS THIS REGION UNTIL AFTER 16/12Z. ..KERR.. 02/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 00:59:10 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 19:59:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060216005910.849FED45BC@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160057 SWODY1 SPC AC 160055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MIDWEST... DEEP LAYER FRONTAL ZONE WAS ALIGNED WITH EXTENSIVE BELT OF STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. FRONTAL WAVE CYCLONE HAS ATTEMPTED TO FORM ALONG THIS FRONT OVER SWRN MO IN RESPONSE TO A DEAMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD TOWARD THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY. A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STRONG LEE-SIDE SURFACE CYCLONE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT OVER SWRN KS BY THURSDAY MORNING. SLOPED/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT BENEATH LARGE SCALE JET COUPLING ONGOING FROM MO TO IND. WHILE AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY TOO DRY AND STABLE TO SUPPORT TSTMS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FRONTAL SURFACE...COUPLED WITH CONTINUING LARGE SCALE BACKGROUND ASCENT...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME INHIBITION AND RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. DESPITE STRONG SHEAR WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE...LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE THE THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 02/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 05:50:23 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 00:50:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060216055023.DD695D464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160548 SWODY1 SPC AC 160547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... A POSITIVE TILT LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN PACIFIC...NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN U.S...DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. BAND OF VERY FAST WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL STRETCH FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES/APPALACHIANS...BETWEEN THE POSITIVE TILT WRN TROUGH AND A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FAST FLOW REGIME...AND CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL ACCELERATE ENEWD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH A BAND OF 100-110KT MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADING FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES TO WRN PA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX WILL INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS. RAPID TRANSLATION OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO QUICKLY REFORM EWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...AND THEN TRACK TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH LATE TODAY WHILE DEEPENING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE AREA...A STRONG SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD SEWD FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ...AR/SERN MO TO OH VALLEY... EXPANDING LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS WAS DEPICTED IN SURFACE OBS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM ERN TX/OK TO SRN MO LATE TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE TRANSPORTED NWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY BY 12Z...AND THEN EWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE MORNING...DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED STORMS DUE TO EML INVERSION EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY SUFFICIENT TO ELIMINATE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MO...WRN IL...AND NRN AR BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE ALSO APPEARS TO SUGGEST THAT STORM INITIATION OCCURS ON OR IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT DEVELOPS EWD/SEWD INTO THESE AREAS BY 21Z. INITIAL ACTIVITY OVER MO MAY BE UNDERCUT BY THE ADVANCING FRONT AND POSE ONLY A LIMITED WIND/HAIL THREAT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED STORM UPDRAFTS TAPPING WEAKLY TO MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS MAY EXIST INVOF SURFACE LOW AND FRONT ACROSS IL/IND INTO EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL IN NATURE...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND FAST STORM MOTION SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. DEEPENING COLD POOL...STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION...AND MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASING TO 90-100KT...ALL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO A SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST/LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH LATE EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...FROM AR TO NRN MS...LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL JET WILL BE WEAKER THAN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THESE DEFICIENCIES MAY BE OFFSET BY GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/CAPE AND FORCED ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT. A LINEAR MCS WITH WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE EVENING BEFORE LOOSING INTENSITY AS INSTABILITY AND FORCING GRADUALLY WANE WITH EWD/SEWD EXTENT. ..CARBIN.. 02/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 12:23:15 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 07:23:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060216122315.CC085D46A9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161215 SWODY1 SPC AC 161213 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0613 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CO. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND MID MS/OH VALLEYS TODAY. UPPER SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH 110+ KNOT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX NOSING ACROSS IL/IND. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN IL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS MI TONIGHT. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS /60-80 KNOTS AT 850MB/ WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH/TN/MID MS VALLEYS...TRANSPORTING MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NORTHWARD. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHEAST AR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF IND/OH/KY/TN DURING THE EVENING. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL FAVOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN KY/TN THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER CAPE VALUES. ORIENTATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ALSO SUGGEST A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...ALONG WITH A GREATER THREAT OF SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. SQUALL LINE MAY MOVE AS FAR EAST AS EASTERN OH OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ..HART.. 02/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 16:33:31 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 11:33:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060216163332.548F3D46A9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161630 SWODY1 SPC AC 161628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OHIO MID MS AND WRN TN VALLEYS... ...OH AND MID MS/WRN TN VALLEYS... VERY STRONG...FAST MOVING S/WV TROUGH MOVING FROM CURRENT LOCATION CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT. FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL IN/IL WSWWD CENTRAL MO INTO WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE. DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE SWRN MO WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS IL THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DEEPEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT INTO SWRN ONTARIO. IN THE WAKE OF SURFACE LOW STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE SEWD THRU SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY BY TONIGHT. 850MB 50-60 KT SWLY WINDS SPREADING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS MID MS INTO LOWER OH VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THRU THE 50S. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR THE CURRENT VIGOROUS ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NRN IL. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR INDICATED ON REGIONAL VWP'S SUPPORTS ELEVATED ROTATING STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND NEAR SEVERE WINDS GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. REF MCD 146. FURTHER S AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM HAS SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MO VALLEY. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY PRECLUDE SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE COMBINATION OF STRONG FRONTAL LIFT AND LARGE SCALE UVV'S WITH S/WV TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE INITIAL SUBSTANTIAL CIN. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS AOA 60F MLCAPES WILL RANGE DOWNWARD FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG IN WARM SECTOR SRN PLAINS TO AROUND 500 J/KG INTO LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS. CIN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. INITIAL THREAT EXPECTED TO BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER THE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING 100 KT 500 MB WIND MAX SUPPORTS ROTATING STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SHORT LINES/BOWS WITH INCREASING WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS MID MS INTO OH AND WRN TN VALLEYS. GIVEN THE INTENSE WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY THRU THE EVENING HOURS EITHER EMBEDDED WITHIN OR JUST AHEAD OF THE LINES/BOWS. THUS GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP. VERY IMPRESSIVE 110KT 500MB AND 150KT PLUS 300MB WIND MAXES TRAVERSING THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE SQUALL LINE CONTINUING OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WIND DAMAGE. AMOUNT OF SEVERE OVERNIGHT IS DEPENDENT ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. IF INSTABILITY GREATER THAN NOW EXPECTED AFTERNOON OUTLOOK MAY NEED TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT SLIGHT RISK . ..HALES.. 02/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 19:56:41 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 14:56:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060216195646.4BB19D46A9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161954 SWODY1 SPC AC 161952 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS.... ...OZARK PLATEAU INTO GREAT LAKES.... WAVE SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG SHARP FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW IN AMPLITUDE. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN INDIANA...BEFORE MORE RAPID DEEPENING OCCURS AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO EAST NORTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION OF A 100+ KT 500 MB JET OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IN WAKE OF THE LOW...COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU REGION...WITH ASSOCIATED FORCING PROVIDING FOCUS FOR EVOLUTION OF A SQUALL LINE BY EARLY EVENING. INITIATION OF THIS PROCESS ALREADY APPEARS UNDERWAY FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. NARROW PLUME OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU...EXTENDS AHEAD OF FRONT...ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO A CORRIDOR OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...AS FORCING WEAKENS MID-LEVEL INHIBITION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CAPE APPEARS LIKELY TO EXCEED 500 J/KG. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALREADY VERY STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALONG STRENGTHENING PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONGER SHEAR/BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS BEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY EXIST FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT WEAKER INSTABILITY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE LOW...AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY AND STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TORNADO POTENTIAL FARTHER NORTH...INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO LIKELY ACCOMPANY SQUALL LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS IT PROGRESSES INTO/THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. SURGING ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A GREATER TENDENCY TO UNDERCUT SQUALL LINE BY THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT...AND MAY OCCUR FAIRLY RAPIDLY DURING THE 17/03-06Z TIME FRAME. AS MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. AS THIS BECOMES INCREASING CUT-OFF FROM GULF MOISTURE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH. ...LIKELY BY 12Z FRIDAY. ..KERR.. 02/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 17 13:01:29 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 17 Feb 2006 08:01:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060217130129.4E989D4609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171259 SWODY1 SPC AC 171258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2006 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING WRN NY/PA WILL REACH WRN NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY BEFORE SLOWING SOMEWHAT AS IT CONTINUES E/NE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. FAST-MOVING ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM WILL SWEEP E OFF THE NEW ENGLAND/ MID ATLANTIC CST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WEST...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY AMPLIFYING OVER ORE/NRN CA. AN IMPULSE NOW W OF KSFO SHOULD DAMPEN AS IT CONTINUES E INTO CNTRL CA LATER TODAY. AN UPSTREAM JET STREAK THAT ATTM APPEARS TO BE MOVING SWWD OFF THE WA CST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH NRN CA LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...NRN PA/CNTRL AND ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND... A NARROW LINE OF STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSED WRN NY/PA EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS BAND IS PRECEDED BY ELEVATED CONVECTIVE REMNANTS FROM YESTERDAY'S STORMS IN THE OH VLY. GIVEN ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INFLOW AHEAD OF BOTH CONVECTIVE LINES...AND WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DO NOT FORESEE INTENSIFICATION OF THE BANDS AS THEY MOVE E ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF STRONG FRONTAL UPLIFT AND MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY /BASED NEAR 700 MB PER AREA SOUNDINGS/ MAY YIELD OCCASIONAL CG LIGHTNING STRIKES...BUT PROSPECTS FOR SUSTAINED THUNDER APPEAR LOW. SURFACE-BASED INVERSION IN PREFRONTAL AIR SHOULD ALSO MINIMIZE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF STRONG GRADIENT FLOW...ALTHOUGH HIGH SURFACE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR MAINLY INVOF TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS IN ERN NY/NEW ENGLAND GIVEN 60+ KT LLJ. ...CA... FAIRLY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /950 TO 700 MB LAPSE RATES AOA 7 DEG C PER KM AND TOTAL TOTALS INDICES IN THE MID 50S/ WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN CA TODAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES INLAND. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY...SURFACE HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL CA MOUNTAINS. SOME ACTIVITY MAY ALSO FORM ALONG THE CST...AND OVER THE SACRAMENTO AND NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS. ..CORFIDI.. 02/17/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 17 15:54:31 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 17 Feb 2006 10:54:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060217155431.32AFDD4964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171553 SWODY1 SPC AC 171551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0951 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2006 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND... ...ERN NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND... NARROW LINE OF ENHANCED...MOIST CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING COLD FRONT NOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION OF ERN NY. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES NARROW AXIS OF HEATING/CLEARING EXTENDING INTO SERN NY WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN ENHANCED SURFACE WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT LEAST INTO PORTIONS OF WRN NEW ENGLAND. LARGE SWATH OF NEAR SEVERE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY NOT ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING LINE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION. HOWEVER...APPEARS SOME AUGMENTATION OF THESE LARGER SCALE WINDS WILL REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FARTHER EWD...EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE WIND GUST POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. ...NRN/CENTRAL CA... VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND OPEN CELL CU FIELD NOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST OF THE CA COAST WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED CG LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ..EVANS.. 02/17/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 17 19:10:39 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 17 Feb 2006 14:10:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060217191039.3A9D2D4977@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171909 SWODY1 SPC AC 171907 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NORTHEAST... RAPID DEEPENING OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE IS ONGOING ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND MODELS SUGGEST 1 MB+ PER HOUR FALLS OF MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AS IT MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DESPITE BEING CUT OFF FROM GULF OF MEXICO RETURN FLOW...AND LIMITED INFLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...INTENSE LIFT NEAR SURFACE FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTH OF LOW HAS SUPPORTED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY... WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. FRONT/FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MAINE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST IN ITS WAKE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO TONIGHT. ...GULF STATES... STRONG COLD INTRUSION HAS NOSED INTO WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS... BUT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS ALREADY OCCURRING ABOVE SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION ACROSS EAST TEXAS. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES BY 12Z SATURDAY. CONVECTION/CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE IN CONFLUENT REGIME NEAR LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONT...FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF STATES/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPPED BY RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE... AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE. ...CALIFORNIA... A BROAD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST OF THE OREGON COAST...AND REMAIN OFFSHORE...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE IS SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS IT PROGRESSES INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES THIS AFTERNOON. DESTABILIZATION INLAND ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS MAY ALSO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ..KERR.. 02/17/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 18 00:58:48 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 17 Feb 2006 19:58:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060218005849.1F30AD4962@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180056 SWODY1 SPC AC 180055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AS INTENSE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF ARTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTENSIFYING THROUGH TONIGHT...OVERALL PROBABILITY CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LOW TO SPECIFY AN OUTLOOK AREA DOWNWIND FROM ANY OF THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE WEST...A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WAS ROTATING THROUGH LARGER SCALE POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH OVER NRN CA AND HAS CONTRIBUTED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE BAY AREA NEWD AND SEWD ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS TO THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA. A VERY FEW CG LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LOW STATIC STABILITY AND MODEST BACKGROUND ASCENT WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS...AS WELL AS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS OVER CA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AOB 100 J/KG...AND SPARSE TSTM COVERAGE OBSERVED SO FAR...DO NOT SUPPORT CONTINUING A TSTM OUTLOOK ON THE WEST COAST. ..CARBIN.. 02/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 18 05:51:32 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 18 Feb 2006 00:51:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060218055133.B43E2D46A9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180549 SWODY1 SPC AC 180547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL COVER THE SRN HALF OF THE NATION THIS FORECAST PERIOD BETWEEN WEST COAST/NRN GREAT BASIN TROUGH AND BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE POSITIVE TILT WRN TROUGH...FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...DEEP LAYER NLY FLOW EMANATING FROM THE POLAR REGIONS MERGES WITH ZONAL AIR STREAM TO MAINTAIN STRONG MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST. ...CA COAST... CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE WITHIN TROUGH AXIS...AND NEAR MID LEVEL COLD POOL...DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS CA AND NV LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MARINE LAYER MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY GREATER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY NEAR THE CNTRL CA COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SMALL SCALE PERTURBATION ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH FROM SFO SWD. ONLY A COUPLE OF ISOLATED CG LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRED DURING A SIMILAR SCENARIO ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND A GENERAL TSTM FORECAST AREA DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED FOR TODAY. ..CARBIN.. 02/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 18 12:58:56 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 18 Feb 2006 07:58:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060218125858.CFD12D4781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181257 SWODY1 SPC AC 181256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2006 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL COVER THE SRN HALF OF THE NATION DOWNSTREAM FROM CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CA. THE CA LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER THIS PERIOD AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE. CONFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM THE WRN TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE MS/OH VLY REGION...AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN ARCTIC AIR MASS SPREADING S INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. ...CA... SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW VORT MAX WHICH ROTATED SW FROM THE WA CST AREA IN THE LAST 24 HRS HAS NOW MOVED INTO BASE OF NRN CA LOW. THE VORT SHOULD MOVE INLAND ACROSS CNTRL CA LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND LARGELY OFFSHORE. BUT COMBINATION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT...MID LEVEL COOLING AND OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED LARGELY DIURNAL STORMS...MAINLY NEAR THE CST AND IN THE KSFO/KMRY AREA. ...SERN STATES... LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF JET ENTRANCE REGION-INDUCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT THUNDER OVER THE UPPER SOUTH AND GULF CST STATES. ..CORFIDI.. 02/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 18 16:37:23 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 18 Feb 2006 11:37:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060218163726.53675D4781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181635 SWODY1 SPC AC 181634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2006 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA... VERY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ALONG THE CA COAST THIS MORNING. EXTENSIVE OPEN CELL CU FIELD AND ISOLATED CG LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH 16Z JUST OFF THE CA COAST FROM NEAR OXR NWD TO WEST OF ACV. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR WEAK INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF CA TODAY. VORT MAX WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SSEWD ACROSS CENTRAL CA...WHILE STRONG MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS SRN CA...THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL FOCUS SCATTERED LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL JET WHERE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. MODIFIED 12Z OBSERVED AND FORECAST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SBCAPE AT OR BELOW 500 J/KG...WHICH MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CORES TODAY GIVEN VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SHEAR. ..EVANS.. 02/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 18 20:04:15 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 18 Feb 2006 15:04:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060218200417.C43C1D4781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 182002 SWODY1 SPC AC 182000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2006 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PERSIST E OF THE ROCKIES THIS PERIOD...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS BENEATH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ANY THUNDER THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF CA...WHERE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...PORTIONS OF WRN CA... WEAK UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE NRN CA COAST IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME...WITH ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING NEAR AND S OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. SHOWERS CONTINUE WITHIN THE ONSHORE FLOW REGIME...THOUGH ALL CG LIGHTNING HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORT A RELATIVELY DEEP NEUTRAL TO MINIMALLY UNSTABLE LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 02/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 19 00:44:31 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 18 Feb 2006 19:44:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060219004434.E4C30D4654@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190042 SWODY1 SPC AC 190040 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2006 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL CA... CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WERE FAVORABLE FOR SPORADIC TSTMS THIS AFTN...PRIMARILY IN THE BAY AREA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER VORT MAX WEST OF KSFO THAT WILL ROTATE EWD INTO CNTRL CA LATER THIS EVE. SATL LIGHTNING DATA STILL SHOWS TSTMS OCCURRING OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS IMPULSE. WEAK BUOYANCY AND ENHANCED ASCENT SPREADING INLAND LATER THIS EVE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CONTINUED ISOLD TSTM THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT...PRIMARILY FROM THE BAY AREA SWD TO JUST N OF KSBA. ..RACY.. 02/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 19 05:21:41 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 19 Feb 2006 00:21:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060219052144.622DDD4781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190519 SWODY1 SPC AC 190518 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2006 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...DOWNSTREAM FROM AN ELONGATED LOW SITUATED ACROSS THE GRT BASIN/CA. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION WITH A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS TO PRECLUDE TSTMS. ...CA... IMPULSE DROPPING SWD OFF THE WA COAST WILL ROTATE INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL CA AREA SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. STEEP LAPSE RATES...ENHANCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND OROGRAPHICS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING. A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE AND UPDRAFT LIFE-CYCLES PRECLUDES A GENERAL TSTM AREA ATTM. ..RACY.. 02/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 19 13:01:38 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 19 Feb 2006 08:01:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060219130142.736B4D4BF4@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191300 SWODY1 SPC AC 191258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2006 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODERATE WSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE NATION...DOWNSTREAM FROM ELONGATED TROUGH NOW OVER NRN CA AND THE NRN GRT BASIN. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S...WITH ARCTIC AIR REMAINING SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO PRECLUDE TSTMS. ...CNTRL/SRN CA... UPPER IMPULSE WHICH DROPPED SSE ALONG THE CA CST IN THE LAST 24 HRS WILL MOVE E ACROSS S CNTRL CA TODAY AND INTO THE SRN GRT BASIN BY THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE/COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE LOS ANGELES BASIN AND WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN CA THROUGH MIDDAY. RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER IMPULSE AS IT CROSSES SRN CA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST CLOSER TO MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE STATE. SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT IN THESE AREAS WILL YIELD MODEST LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION AND LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION. A FEW CELLS MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CNTRL CA CST AND PERHAPS IN THE SACRAMENTO VLY. EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE AND SHORT UPDRAFT LIFETIMES APPEAR TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A GENERAL TSTM AREA ATTM. ..CORFIDI.. 02/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 19 16:16:47 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 19 Feb 2006 11:16:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060219161651.89780D50ED@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191615 SWODY1 SPC AC 191613 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2006 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODERATE WSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE NATION...DOWNSTREAM FROM ELONGATED TROUGH NOW OVER NRN CA AND THE NRN GRT BASIN. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S...WITH ARCTIC AIR REMAINING SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO PRECLUDE TSTMS. ...CNTRL/SRN CA... UPPER IMPULSE WHICH DROPPED SSE ALONG THE CA CST IN THE LAST 24 HRS WILL MOVE E ACROSS S CNTRL CA TODAY AND INTO THE SRN GRT BASIN BY THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE/COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE LOS ANGELES BASIN AND WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN CA THROUGH MIDDAY. RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER IMPULSE AS IT CROSSES SRN CA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST CLOSER TO MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE STATE. SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT IN THESE AREAS WILL YIELD MODEST LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION AND LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION. A FEW CELLS MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CNTRL CA CST AND PERHAPS IN THE SACRAMENTO VLY. ..CORFIDI/EVANS.. 02/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 19 20:03:08 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 19 Feb 2006 15:03:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060219200313.9E552D4505@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 192000 SWODY1 SPC AC 191959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2006 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WSWWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO CA. COOL STABLE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS...WHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. TROUGH OVER CA/THE GREAT BASIN WILL SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...CA... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN CA S OF UPPER CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CA. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS NEGLIGIBLE...A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ..GOSS.. 02/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 20 00:42:59 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 19 Feb 2006 19:42:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060220004304.7C9FDD47C6@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200041 SWODY1 SPC AC 200039 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2006 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA... THE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE NRN GRT BASIN AND CA. AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING AND THE DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION BENEATH THE TROUGH WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 02/20/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 20 05:40:50 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 20 Feb 2006 00:40:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060220054056.6F958D4977@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200538 SWODY1 SPC AC 200536 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2006 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... UPPER FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE ON MON WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. POLAR JET ACROSS THE GRTLKS REGION WILL MAINTAIN CONFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM...KEEPING THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY... PRECLUDING TSTMS. TO THE WEST...PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SWD THROUGH THE GRT BASIN AND CA WHILE WEAKENING. LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP AS OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS CA. THOUGH CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY...THERE SEEMS TO BE LITTLE THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR LIGHTNING. ..RACY.. 02/20/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 20 12:54:17 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 20 Feb 2006 07:54:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060220125423.F03D9D4609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201252 SWODY1 SPC AC 201250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODERATE TO FAST WSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE SERN THIRD OF THE NATION...DOWNSTREAM FROM SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE POSITIVE TILT TROUGH OVER THE GRT BASIN. IMPULSE DROPPING SEWD IN NRN STREAM SKIRTING THE FAR NRN PLNS/UPR GRT LKS WILL MAINTAIN CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD KEEP SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS...WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC AIR HOLDING FIRM AT LOWER LEVELS OVER MOST OF THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. BACK WEST...SATELLITE SHOWS AN IMPULSE ATTM MOVING SWWD OFF THE CNTRL CA CST. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT TURNS SE TOWARD SRN CA LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SOMEWHAT AS IT APPROACHES THE SRN CA CST. BUT WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL...DEPTH/ COVERAGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED. ..CORFIDI.. 02/20/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 20 16:17:38 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 20 Feb 2006 11:17:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060220161802.72477D4699@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201616 SWODY1 SPC AC 201614 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..EVANS.. 02/20/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 20 19:56:55 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 20 Feb 2006 14:56:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060220195703.158B5D4699@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201955 SWODY1 SPC AC 201953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST MON FEB 20 2006 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..DIAL.. 02/20/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 21 00:41:14 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 20 Feb 2006 19:41:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060221004123.C30B8D4699@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210039 SWODY1 SPC AC 210037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CST MON FEB 20 2006 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..RACY.. 02/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 21 05:43:50 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 21 Feb 2006 00:43:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060221054400.714D9D4699@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210541 SWODY1 SPC AC 210540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 PM CST MON FEB 20 2006 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... FAST ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS SKIRTING THE NRN TIER. UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED ACROSS CA SINCE LATE LAST WEEK WILL BECOME CUT-OFF IN THE SRN BRANCH BY TUE AFTN. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE DESERT SW AS A TROUGH OVER NWRN BC BEGINS TO DIG SEWD. ...SERN PLAINS... SLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ON TUE...PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING ZONAL UPPER JET STRUCTURE ACROSS THE OH VLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX THROUGH THE DAY. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT A STOUT EML ATOP THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER...CAPPING SURFACE BASED PARCELS AND PRECLUDING DAYTIME TSTM PROBABILITIES. SUBTROPICAL WARM CONVEYOR AHEAD OF THE DESERT SW TROUGH WILL CARRY SUBTLE JETLETS NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT. MAINTENANCE OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME IN CONJUNCTION WITH BROAD WEAK ASCENT TIED TO THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SERN PLAINS LATE TUE NIGHT...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STRONG EML. ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY AOB MINUS 20 DEG C WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SPORADIC LIGHTNING IN THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. HAIL PRODUCTION SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY THE EXPECTED WEAK INSTABILITY. ..RACY.. 02/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 21 13:01:13 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 21 Feb 2006 08:01:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060221130126.62F40D4A6C@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211259 SWODY1 SPC AC 211257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2006 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... FAST WSW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE S CNTRL AND ERN U.S. INTO WEDNESDAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE POSITIVE TILT TROUGH IN THE WEST. UPR LOW IN BASE OF TROUGH...JUST NOW ENTERING SRN CA...SHOULD BECOME REABSORBED INTO THE WLYS AS A NRN STREAM SPEED MAX DROPS SE ACROSS BC. ...ARKLATEX... SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODIFY ACROSS THE SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY TODAY AS MODERATE SW TO WSW 850 FLOW PERSISTS IN RESPONSE TO PASSING LOW AMPLITUDE UPR DISTURBANCES...AND TO STRENGTHENING OF MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE MID MS/OH VLYS. THIS SETUP WILL MAINTAIN MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT EML ABOVE THE MOISTENING LOWER LAYERS...CAPPING REGION TO DEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. WEAK ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO FOCUS ALONG CORRIDOR FROM N TX EWD INTO THE ARKLATEX/NRN MS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB THERMAL GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN IN WAKE OF A NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE MID MS VLY. MAINTENANCE OF WARM/MOIST INFLOW INTO STRENGTHENING 850 FRONT...AND POSSIBLE ASSISTANCE FROM PASSING IMPULSES IN SUBTROPICAL JET...MAY SUPPORT A BAND OR TWO OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NRN/ERN TX AND THE ARKLATEX LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY NEAR MINUS 20 DEG C MAY SUPPORT SPORADIC LIGHTNING IN THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS...BUT OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED BY ABSENCE OF AN IDENTIFIABLE UPR LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND BY SEASONABLY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ..CORFIDI.. 02/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 21 16:21:14 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 21 Feb 2006 11:21:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060221162127.32D81D4A7B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211619 SWODY1 SPC AC 211617 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1017 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2006 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES TODAY AS A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIG SEWD OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. AS THIS OCCURS...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. DOWNSTREAM...SRN EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BEGIN MIXING/ERODING ALLOWING SLY WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. LATER TONIGHT...WSWLY LLJ WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF VERY STRONG UPPER JET MAX OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ATOP MODIFYING ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL THEREFORE SUPPORT INCREASED MOIST CONVECTION INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION...POSSIBLY BY LATER THIS EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH/TN RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY GENERATE A SMALL SLIVER OF ELEVATED CAPE LATER TONIGHT WITH MUCAPE AOB 100 J/KG. THEREFORE...EXPECT NEGLIGIBLE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH 12Z. ..EVANS.. 02/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 21 20:04:44 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 21 Feb 2006 15:04:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060221200456.B0953D487E@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 212002 SWODY1 SPC AC 212001 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0201 PM CST TUE FEB 21 2006 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS VALLEY... SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY IN ASSOCIATION WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET DEVELOPING OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE ABOVE MODIFYING ARCTIC AIR AND CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL RESULT IN ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO SHALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM SERN OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MORE THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHTING STRIKE OR TWO. ..DIAL.. 02/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 22 00:58:33 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 21 Feb 2006 19:58:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060222005847.E8AFFD4A79@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220056 SWODY1 SPC AC 220055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST TUE FEB 21 2006 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN PLAINS... BROAD SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INTENSIFY THIS EVENING AS UPPER JET ACCELERATES OVER THE OH VLY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SERN PLAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BENEATH A STRONG EML. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ AND WEAK ASCENT TIED TO A SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE MOVING NEWD THROUGH TX WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CONVECTION FROM N TX/SRN OK EWD INTO THE ARKLATEX. VERY ISOLD LIGHTNING COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS...PARTICULARLY AFTER 09Z. ..RACY.. 02/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 22 05:47:33 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 22 Feb 2006 00:47:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060222054749.3A317D469F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220546 SWODY1 SPC AC 220544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST TUE FEB 21 2006 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...E TX INTO THE DEEP S... THE NRN STREAM JET AXIS ACROSS THE OH VLY EARLY WED WILL TRANSLATE EWD BY WED EVE. CORE OF THE SWLY LLJ COUPLED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CORRESPONDINGLY MOVE EWD OVER THE SRN STATES THROUGH WED. A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD THROUGH THE SERN PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH. GULF MSTR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD TO THE FRONT AND LIKELY GENERATE CLOUDS AND FOG MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THOUGH CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM ERN TX INTO THE DEEP S VCNTY THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MINIMAL INSOLATION WILL MITIGATE WIDESPREAD TSTMS. RATHER...ISOLD AND SPORADIC LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGHEST TSTMS PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY WHERE MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LLJ AXIS WILL BE STRONGEST. ..RACY.. 02/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 22 13:00:38 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 22 Feb 2006 08:00:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060222130055.DD6EDD43AB@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221259 SWODY1 SPC AC 221258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST WED FEB 22 2006 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD NRN STREAM TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE N CNTRL STATES WILL BECOME DOMINANT JET FEATURE THIS PERIOD AS EXISTING BAND OF FAST WSW FLOW OVER THE S CNTRL/SERN U.S. MOVES E INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY/GULF CST AND SERN STATES. THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO PASSING LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN THE NRN STREAM...AND TO EWD PROGRESSION/DEAMPLIFICATION OF LAST MAJOR SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER THE SRN RCKYS. ...E TX INTO THE DEEP S... NRN STREAM JET AXIS ACROSS THE OH VLY EARLY WED WILL MOVE E TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST BY THIS EVE. CORE OF ASSOCIATED SWLY LLJ WILL CORRESPONDINGLY MOVE E OVER THE GULF CST REGION. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD N INTO VICINITY OF DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ON LEADING EDGE OF AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SURGE. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. A BAND OR TWO OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SE TX ENE INTO PARTS OF LA/MS/AL AND GA LATER TODAY AS TIGHTENING OF BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCES ASCENT. SEASONABLY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED SURFACE HEATING WILL MINIMIZE DESTABILIZATION. BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT SPORADIC LIGHTNING IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDER SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY WHERE MASS CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST. ...S CNTRL TX... AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THUNDER MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER S CNTRL TX AS REGION IS BRUSHED BY SRN END OF WRN TROUGH BECOMING REABSORBED INTO THE WLYS. COMPARATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE AOA 250 J/KG ON WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS. ..CORFIDI.. 02/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 22 16:25:05 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 22 Feb 2006 11:25:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060222162528.F33ADD450E@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221618 SWODY1 SPC AC 221617 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1017 AM CST WED FEB 22 2006 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CONFLUENT JETS OVER CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IN TURN FORCE THE FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY FROM THE CAROLINAS WSWWD INTO CENTRAL TX TO BEGIN MOVING SWD. MOIST SLY FLOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS GULF STATES PROVIDING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MUCH OF CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED TO N OF FRONTAL ZONE AS WARM SECTOR TO S OF FRONT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CAPPED. MOST ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS GULF STATES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN WARM SECTOR SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. ..HALES.. 02/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 22 20:08:28 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 22 Feb 2006 15:08:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060222200847.803F6D43AB@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 222006 SWODY1 SPC AC 222005 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 PM CST WED FEB 22 2006 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH SERN U.S.... THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM SC WWD THROUGH CNTRL AL AND FARTHER W INTO ERN TX. A WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SERN STATES THAT APPEARS TO BE COUPLED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID LEVEL JET OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS WILL SHIFT EWD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN INFLUX OF MOIST GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. RESULTING THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AND MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY N OF SURFACE FRONT. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR S OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDING AND ACARS DATA SHOW PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL INVERSION WHICH IS LIMITING INSTABILITY AND SUGGESTS THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW AND GENERALLY BELOW 25000 FT WITH LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES THROUGH THIS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LAYER ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY AOA 45 KT...AND SOME WEAK ROTATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH ACTIVITY OVER CNTRL AL. A OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A BRIEF TORNADO MAY EXIST WITH THE SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. HOWEVER...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND WARM MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL.. 02/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 23 00:50:26 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 22 Feb 2006 19:50:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060223005048.9C14FD43B1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230048 SWODY1 SPC AC 230046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CST WED FEB 22 2006 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PORTIONS OF AL/GA... STORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER CENTRAL AL/W CENTRAL GA EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG COLD FRONT...AS WEAK UPPER FEATURE MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL...FAVORABLY STRONG/VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT SUPPORT ROTATION -- WHICH HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN STRONGER CELLS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL SUPPORT A DECREASE IN ALREADY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED/SLOW WEAKENING TREND IN ONGOING CONVECTION. A LINGERING THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS -- MAINLY ACROSS E CENTRAL AL/W CENTRAL GA. ..GOSS.. 02/23/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 23 05:28:38 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 23 Feb 2006 00:28:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060223052900.BD932D43B3@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230527 SWODY1 SPC AC 230525 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CST WED FEB 22 2006 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH WLY/NWLY FLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH SPREADING EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES/INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THOUGH MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL PREVAIL S OF THIS FRONT...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR -- MAINLY ACROSS N FL AND W TX/S NM. ...NRN FL... WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE FRONT FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION...THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION REACHES A DIURNAL MAXIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...W TX/SRN NM... SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE SRN STREAM ARE FORECAST TO TRAVERSE SRN NM/TX THIS PERIOD. THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...A FEW STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING INVOF TRAILING PORTION OF SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES. ..GOSS.. 02/23/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 23 13:00:18 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 23 Feb 2006 08:00:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060223130042.8A997D43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231258 SWODY1 SPC AC 231256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 AM CST THU FEB 23 2006 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM WILL BECOME DOMINANT JET ACROSS THE NATION THIS PERIOD ...WITH STRONGEST PART OF SRN BRANCH CONTINUING TO EDGE E INTO THE ATLANTIC. A TROUGH IN THE NRN STREAM...NOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS... WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ESE AND AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT UPON REACHING WRN NEW ENG EARLY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP DRIVE COLD FRONT OVER GA AND THE CAROLINAS SWD/EWD INTO FL AND THE ATLANTIC. WRN PART OF FRONT AFFECTING THE SERN U.S. SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY OVER NE MEXICO TODAY. IT LIKELY WILL BEGIN TO REFORM NWD WITH TIME AS DEEP LAYER FLOW BACKS IN WAKE OF GRT LKS TROUGH...AND AHEAD OF SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE NOW OFF NRN BAJA. ...N FL... LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND CONVERGENCE...WILL REMAIN WEAK ALONG AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...THUS THUNDER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION ALONG BOUNDARY REACHES MAXIMUM DEPTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...W TX/SRN NM... SEVERAL WEAK SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCES ARE APPARENT IN SATELLITE DATA ATTM...UPSTREAM FROM FAR W TX/SRN NM. SHALLOW COOL DOME AND CLOUDS LIKELY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT LOW LEVELS OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...LIMITING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. BUT HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN MAY YIELD A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA IN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE MAY DRIFT NE INTO THE U.S. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT CLOUD TOPS MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO YIELD OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. ..CORFIDI.. 02/23/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 23 16:24:43 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 23 Feb 2006 11:24:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060223162508.68350D43EE@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231621 SWODY1 SPC AC 231619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 AM CST THU FEB 23 2006 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LARGE SCALE FLOW CONTINUES TO DE AMPLIFY ACROSS CONUS WITH DOMINATE WLY COMPONENT. CONFLUENCE OF SRN AND NRN BRANCHES OCCURRING OVER ERN U.S. UNDER WHICH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CAROLINAS WSWWD TO OFF UPPER TX COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SEWD. BY 12Z FRI FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WWD ACROSS NRN GULF TO S TX. SOME WEAK CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING VICINITY FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SERN U.S. OVERNIGHT. S OF FRONT...ACROSS NRN FL ...DAYTIME HEATING WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR ABOVE 80F WHICH ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S PROVIDES SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY(MLCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG) TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN 6C/KM...PRECLUDES A CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS. STORM POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH WEAKENING INSTABILITY. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FAR SWRN TX AND SRN NM FOR TONIGHT AS COMBINATION OF MOIST WSWLY SRN BRANCH COMBINES WITH LOW LEVEL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON SELY FLOW. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL...HOWEVER WITH AID OF LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH NOW MOVING INLAND SRN CA/NRN BAJA THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER DARK. ..HALES.. 02/23/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 24 00:56:11 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 23 Feb 2006 19:56:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060224005638.CD15ED43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240053 SWODY1 SPC AC 240052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CST THU FEB 23 2006 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN U.S... 00Z SOUNDING FROM EPZ EXHIBITS MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM...WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION FROM NRN MEXICO INTO WEST TX. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS ROUGHLY 100-200J/KG...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NM/MEXICO BORDER. LATEST THINKING IS SFC BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE EWD TOWARD EL PASO BEFORE UPDRAFTS BECOME ELEVATED OVER WEST TX. LIGHTNING SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING/WEAKENING LAPSE RATES...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT INTO WCNTRL TX. ..DARROW.. 02/24/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 24 05:46:00 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 00:46:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060224054631.285B0D432A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240545 SWODY1 SPC AC 240543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CST THU FEB 23 2006 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTH CENTRAL U.S... NRN BAJA UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT EWD INTO INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID VERTICAL ASCENT ATOP COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY OVER TX INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL BE ROOTED NEAR 850MB...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME THREAT FOR NEAR SFC-BASED ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...WWD INTO NM WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MUCH STEEPER...APPROACHING 8C/KM. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...IT APPEARS MEAGER CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY...ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG...WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT FOR LONGER LIVED UPDRAFTS. ELEVATED CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING WILL BE COMMON WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BENEATH COLD THERMAL TROUGH INTO SRN NM MOSTLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. ..DARROW.. 02/24/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 24 12:56:21 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 07:56:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060224125652.AF1D5D43B1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241255 SWODY1 SPC AC 241253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... TWO SEPARATE FLOW STREAMS CHARACTERIZE THE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A NRN STREAM FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A SRN STREAM FROM NRN MEXICO TO THE GULF COAST STATES. WITHIN THE SRN STREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN BAJA WILL MOVE GENERALLY EWD TO WRN/CENTRAL TX BY EARLY SATURDAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY FROM EXTREME SE AZ EWD ACROSS SRN NM/W TX IN THE REGION OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID LEVEL WAVE AXIS...AND ALONG THE NWRN FRINGE OF A PLUME OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THOUGH MUCAPE SHOULD REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 40S...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INVOF FAR W TX. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THREAT FOR A FEW ELEVATED STORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS W CENTRAL TX TODAY. FARTHER E AND LATER TONIGHT... INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN AND LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN STREAM WAVE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN EXPANDING RAIN SHIELD WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND N TX EWD TOWARD LA. ..THOMPSON.. 02/24/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 24 16:35:42 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 11:35:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060224163615.BC4A8D432A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241632 SWODY1 SPC AC 241630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN NM/SW TX... SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN BAJA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL TRACK EWD TODAY ACROSS NRN MEXICO NEAR THE U.S. BORDER REACHING SW/W TX LATE TONIGHT. VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ACROSS NRN CHIHUAHUA INTO NM AND SW TX ALLOWING FOR STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS MID LEVEL COLD POCKET /-20 C AT 500 MB/ WITH SRN STREAM WAVE SPREADS EWD. DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S/... STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NM AND FAR W TX IN THE REGION OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID LEVEL WAVE AXIS...AND WHERE STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING RESULTS IN GREATEST AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INVOF FAR W TX...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE COVERAGE. THUS...THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITH AN EWD EXTENSION OF LOW SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITIES INTO PARTS OF SW/W TX AS EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR/ INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WITH ISOLATED HAIL INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...BROAD ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA REGIME ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN TX TODAY AND DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD LA TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. ..PETERS.. 02/24/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 24 19:47:17 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 14:47:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060224194750.E8387D43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241945 SWODY1 SPC AC 241944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN NM INTO SWRN TX... AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOBILE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO SONORA MEXICO...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT INTO WRN TX. INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER SWRN NM WITHIN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT SBCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK SURFACE WINDS...CURRENT ELP VWP SHOWS 60-65 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH IS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT INTO PARTS OF FAR WRN/SWRN TX TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MD 0165. ...CNTRL/ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON OVER W-CNTRL TX AHEAD OF A WEAKER MID LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/EXPAND EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...THOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ..MEAD.. 02/24/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 25 00:46:19 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 19:46:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060225004654.847B4D4666@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250044 SWODY1 SPC AC 250042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WEST TX/SRN NM... STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED AND MOVED ACROSS THE MEXICAN/TX BORDER...JUST SE OF ELP. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN A FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATE REGIME WHERE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG SFC-BASED CAPE. EPZ SOUNDING WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS FLOW VEERS NICELY WITH HEIGHT AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS NORTH OF EJECTING JET MAX. AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WEST TX IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY/EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION. EWD EXTENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE MODULATED BY STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE FORCING THAT WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS BEFORE SFC-BASED ACTIVITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY ELEVATED...FUELED BY WEAKER INSTABILITY AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM. ..DARROW.. 02/25/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 25 05:43:05 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 25 Feb 2006 00:43:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060225054341.95685D43B1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250541 SWODY1 SPC AC 250539 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF COAST... SRN ROCKIES UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EWD ACROSS THE GULF STATES SATURDAY...NEARING THE GA/FL COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE WITHIN 100 MI OF THE GULF COAST WHILE ONLY A WEAK SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THEN OFF THE GA/SC COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST THIS PERIOD IS THE EXPECTED RETURN OF QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INLAND. IT APPEARS UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT INTO SRN PORTIONS OF LA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...SPREADING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF SURGING FRONTAL ZONE LATE. WITH WLY FLOW DEEPENING AND WEAK WARM SECTOR CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFT IDENTITY WHERE HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS DOES MANAGE TO SPREAD INLAND. MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THAT REGION ALONG/NORTH OF E-W WIND SHIFT. AS A RESULT...THE PROSPECT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...MAINLY DUE TO WEAK FORCING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SRN LA EARLY IN THE PERIOD COULD PRODUCE A LOCAL WIND GUST OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO...BUT THE PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE GULF COAST. ..DARROW.. 02/25/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 25 12:55:08 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 25 Feb 2006 07:55:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060225125547.51D07D41B8@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251253 SWODY1 SPC AC 251252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2006 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER W TX WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GULF STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AN E-W ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE NRN GULF COAST AND MOVE EWD ACROSS N FL AND OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A SEPARATE NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY LATE TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SRN STREAM WAVE. ...NRN GULF COAST TODAY... A BROAD AREA OF RAIN AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE TX...WITH OTHER THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS FORMING ACROSS LA/MS. THIS CONVECTION WILL PERSIST TODAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLY/SWLY FEED OF MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WILL SPREAD NWD INTO SE LA AND THE FL PANHANDLE...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE AREA OF ASCENT OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE. STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT MAY POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT LATER TODAY. ...E CENTRAL FL COAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS N FL AND L0W-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE SLY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND N FL. A N-S CONFLUENCE BAND IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INVOF THE CENTRAL AND NE FL COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EARLY STAGES OF CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE NE FL COAST. AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO THE MID-UPPER 60S FROM S TO N BY AFTERNOON...AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED /SBCAPE AOA 500 J/KG/. DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...FORECAST WIND PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...AND PERHAPS THE RISK OF ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG E CENTRAL FL COAST. ..THOMPSON.. 02/25/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 25 16:38:09 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 25 Feb 2006 11:38:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060225163849.00584D41B8@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251631 SWODY1 SPC AC 251629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2006 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LA/MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST REGION. THE LEAD TROUGH IS NOW OVER LA/MS...AND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN NEW-MOB. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING NEAR COAST MAY AID THREAT OF ISOLATED GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LATER TODAY IN THIS REGION. ISOLATED CELLS MAY POSE A RISK OF HAIL...BUT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ...NORTHEAST FL... MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN THIS EVENING AS LEAD SYSTEM APPROACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST. STRENGTHENING LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS...COUPLED WITH INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC...INDICATE A THREAT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATER TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST FL AND SOUTHEAST GA. RAPID MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND LIMITED THREAT AREA SUGGEST CATEGORICAL THREAT NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. ..HART.. 02/25/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 25 19:49:59 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 25 Feb 2006 14:49:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060225195040.CD7E7D41DC@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251948 SWODY1 SPC AC 251947 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2006 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST... 19Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW E OF JAX WWD TO SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE NEAR PNS AND THEN WSWWD TO AN ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SERN LA /W OF NEW/. DESPITE A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ S OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LIMITED SBCAPES TO AOB 200-500 J/KG. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN FL PENINSULA WHERE STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STRONGER INSTABILITY. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ESEWD INTO THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BELT OF MODESTLY STRONG /50-70 KT/ WSWLY FLOW CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. SOME THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ALONG/S OF THE SURFACE FRONT MAINLY FROM THE FL PNHDL EWD ACROSS NRN FL. ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SWD INTO THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WHERE STRONGER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE THE WEAK INSTABILITY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..MEAD.. 02/25/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 26 01:05:16 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 25 Feb 2006 20:05:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060226010600.8748BD43A0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260104 SWODY1 SPC AC 260102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2006 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...THE SOUTHEAST... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN FL PANHANDLE AND SWWD INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM SRN GA WSWWD TO THE SRN-MOST TIP OF LA. INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE LIMITED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH GREATEST CAPE EVIDENT ALONG THE E COAST OF FL FROM ROUGHLY JAX TO VRB /EVENING JACKSONVILLE FL RAOB INDICATED AROUND 300 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/. WITH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD FORECAST TO INCREASE AS UPPER TROUGH NOW NEARING THE LOWER MS VALLEY MOVES EWD...A LIMITED THREAT FOR A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST OR BRIEF TORNADO MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THIS EVENING. OVERALL HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW. ..GOSS.. 02/26/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 26 05:59:18 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 26 Feb 2006 00:59:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060226060005.27FA3D469F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260558 SWODY1 SPC AC 260556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2006 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND A RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SEWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ...S FL... COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY...MOVING S OF THE PENINSULA/KEYS BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE...DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION /LESS THAN 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- WILL PERSIST/SHIFT SWD AHEAD OF FRONT. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT SUGGEST THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK/SUB-SEVERE. WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREATS IN CURRENT FORECAST...THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED. ..GOSS.. 02/26/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 26 12:50:48 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 26 Feb 2006 07:50:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060226125136.7DBD5D43D1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261249 SWODY1 SPC AC 261248 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2006 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A SRN STREAM TROUGH IS MOVING EWD OVER THE SE ATLANTIC COAST AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING GRADUALLY ALONG THE FRONT...AND ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS S FL TODAY AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHIFTS E OF FL. OTHERWISE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 33 N AND 130 W WILL APPROACH NW CA BY EARLY TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OCEANIC LIGHTNING DETECTION DATA HAVE INDICATED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...THE STEEPER LAPSE RATE/WEAK INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ..THOMPSON.. 02/26/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 26 16:29:49 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 26 Feb 2006 11:29:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060226163039.5E98DD43B1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261624 SWODY1 SPC AC 261623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2006 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE PERSISTING ACROSS THE WEST. SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WILL POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND WEAKENING WIND FIELDS WILL MITIGATE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NATION TODAY. ..HART.. 02/26/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 26 19:36:33 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 26 Feb 2006 14:36:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060226193724.6E3EAD432A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261934 SWODY1 SPC AC 261933 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0133 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2006 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...S FL... SURFACE AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BAND OF STRONGEST CONVECTION NOW WELL TO THE NE OF THE REGION. WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THREAT OF ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER S FL THROUGH TONIGHT. ...CA... WEAKENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE CA COAST TONIGHT...CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ANY POSITIVE BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW AND BELOW THAT PORTION OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE TO SUPPORT CHARGE SEPARATION. ..MEAD.. 02/26/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 27 00:33:59 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 26 Feb 2006 19:33:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060227003452.91D2CD4314@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270033 SWODY1 SPC AC 270031 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0631 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2006 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL S OF THE FL PENINSULA...AND WITH IT THE THREAT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE...CYCLONIC SWLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF LARGE ERN PAC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN CA. AIRMASS ACROSS THIS REMAIN SHOULD...HOWEVER...REMAIN TOO STABLE FOR ANY MORE THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE. CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. ..GOSS.. 02/27/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 27 05:57:35 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 27 Feb 2006 00:57:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060227055831.0C15DD432A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270556 SWODY1 SPC AC 270554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2006 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND/THE WRN ATLANTIC AND A SECOND TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE W COAST. ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER THIS PERIOD WILL BE OVER THE WRN U.S. AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COAST. ...WRN CONUS... WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE WRN U.S. AS COOLING ALOFT SPREADS ONSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER TROUGH. THEREFORE...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..GOSS.. 02/27/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 27 12:45:51 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 27 Feb 2006 07:45:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060227124650.35FFED41DC@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271244 SWODY1 SPC AC 271242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 AM CST MON FEB 27 2006 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE ONLY THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREA ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OF CA/NV IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INLAND BY TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NW CA COAST WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN A BROAD SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING NEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ROOTED NEAR THE GROUND ALONG AND W OF THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT. ..THOMPSON.. 02/27/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 27 16:30:53 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 27 Feb 2006 11:30:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060227163210.5AF2CD43EE@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271629 SWODY1 SPC AC 271627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CST MON FEB 27 2006 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... 12Z SOUNDINGS ALONG THE CA COAST INDICATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING INLAND IN ADVANCE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH...WITH THE SRN EXTENT CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 31N 137W PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE IMMEDIATE CA COAST...SINCE A DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS INLAND SHOULD PRECLUDE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR STORMS. THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT...WITH INSTABILITY GRADUALLY BECOMING ROOTED NEAR THE GROUND LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WEST OF THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES SPREAD INLAND. GIVEN 35-45 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS...A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY REACH THE SURFACE WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..PETERS.. 02/27/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 27 20:03:17 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 27 Feb 2006 15:03:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060227200420.3B29BD43D1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 272001 SWODY1 SPC AC 272000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CST MON FEB 27 2006 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES MEAN RIDGE FROM NWRN MEX NWD ACROSS ERN GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES...AND WEAK HEIGHT RISES OVER MUCH OF ERN CONUS S OF CYCLONE IN CANADIAN MARITIMES. PRONOUNCED TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AROUND 135W -- W OF CA COAST. BROAD FETCH OF SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH EMBEDDED MINOR SHORTWAVES...WILL PERSIST THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD OVER W COAST STATES. ...CA/NV... BROAD ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EVIDENT AHEAD OF OFFSHORE TROUGH...IN CONVECTIVE CLOUD CHARACTER AND IN SPORADIC DETECTION OF CG LIGHTNING STRIKES OFFSHORE CENTRAL/SRN CA COAST. AS THIS REGIME MOVES EWD...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT/DEVELOP ONSHORE THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. STEEPENING LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED WITH SUBTLE SFC HEATING THAT WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SUFFICE FOR GEN TSTM POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER AREA. PRIMARY BAROCLINIC BAND OF LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL SHIFT THUNDER POTENTIAL WELL INLAND TONIGHT WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES UP TO AROUND 200 J/KG POSSIBLE. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FEATURING 50-60 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS...HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BY MUCH SMALLER EFFECTIVE SHEARS AND WEAK SFC THETAE. ..EDWARDS.. 02/27/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 28 00:59:45 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 27 Feb 2006 19:59:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060228010051.C73DFD43EE@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280058 SWODY1 SPC AC 280057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CST MON FEB 27 2006 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA/NV AND PARTS OF SRN ORE/SWRN ID... WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS CA -- IN MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC /AXIS INVOF 130 DEGREES W/. MOST LIGHTNING HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE...WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY ONSHORE. HOWEVER...A FEW STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ON THE W SLOPES OF THE SIERRA...WITHIN DEEP LAYER OF UPSLOPE FLOW. AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...ADDITIONAL COOLING ALOFT MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO ALLOW A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES TO SPREAD NEWD INTO PARTS OF NV AND VICINITY LATER IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...OVERALL ONSHORE LIGHTNING COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LOW. ..GOSS.. 02/28/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 28 05:51:50 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 28 Feb 2006 00:51:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060228055258.DA339D43B1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280550 SWODY1 SPC AC 280549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST MON FEB 27 2006 VALID 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE VORTEX WILL PERSIST OVER ERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD...WHILE UPSTREAM A RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. FURTHER W...A TROUGH JUST OFF THE W COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S./ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY WITH TIME...AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE LARGE/PERSISTENT RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN/MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE PLAINS AS WRN UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES. ...CA ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES... THOUGH UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME...COMBINATION OF MOIST SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-28 C AT H5/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEUTRAL/MINIMALLY-UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS TROUGH MOVES ENEWD WITH TIME...LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION -- WITH ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LIGHTNING -- WILL SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. ..GOSS.. 02/28/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 28 12:45:39 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 28 Feb 2006 07:45:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060228124652.32AB6D43B1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281245 SWODY1 SPC AC 281243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2006 VALID 281300Z - 011200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES...AND GRADUALLY LOSE AMPLITUDE WHILE ENCOUNTERING THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND NRN CA NEWD ACROSS NV/ERN ORE/ID/NW UT TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC BAND AND THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...A MODIFYING CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS IS RETURNING NWD FROM THE WRN GULF BASIN IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL THIS PERIOD AND A RELATIVELY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ..THOMPSON.. 02/28/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 28 16:32:23 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 28 Feb 2006 11:32:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060228163338.6024FD4596@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281630 SWODY1 SPC AC 281629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2006 VALID 281630Z - 011200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPR TROUGH OFF THE NRN CA CST APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED MAXIMUM INTENSITY. ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED VORT CENTER NOW ABOUT 145 WSW OF KEKA IS MOVING APPROX 270/15 AND WILL CROSS NRN CA LATER TODAY/ TONIGHT AS SYSTEM DEAMPLIFIES. THE DISTURBANCE IS PRECEDED BY A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE BAND/SHALLOW COLD FRONT WITH CONVECTION/STORMS THAT ATTM EXTEND ALONG THE CA CST N OF KSFO. ...NRN CA... CONVECTIVE BAND WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO THE NRN SACRAMENTO VLY BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF VORT...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /MINUS 28-30 C AT 500 MB/... OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT AND DIURNAL HEATING ALL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL. ADDITIONAL THUNDER MAY ALSO AFFECT THE NRN CA CST AND CSTL RANGE AS VORT MOVES ASHORE LATER IN THE DAY. ...ERN NV/UT/SRN ID... FARTHER E...MAIN DEEP LAYER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO WRN/NRN NV/SE ORE. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO UT AND THE SNAKE RIVER VLY OF ID LATER TODAY. SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT/UPR DIFLUENCE...AND PRESENCE OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STRONG GRADIENT AND ISALLOBARIC WIND FIELDS MAY YIELD A SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO MAY COINCIDENTAL WITH CONVECTION GIVEN STRENGTH OF UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD. ..CORFIDI.. 02/28/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 28 16:45:45 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 28 Feb 2006 11:45:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060228164700.314DED43D9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281639 SWODY1 SPC AC 281637 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1037 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2006 VALID 281630Z - 011200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPR TROUGH OFF THE NRN CA CST APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED MAXIMUM INTENSITY. ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED VORT CENTER NOW ABOUT 145 WSW OF KEKA IS MOVING APPROX 270/15 AND WILL CROSS NRN CA LATER TODAY/ TONIGHT AS SYSTEM DEAMPLIFIES. THE DISTURBANCE IS PRECEDED BY A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE BAND/SHALLOW COLD FRONT WITH CONVECTION/STORMS THAT ATTM EXTEND ALONG THE CA CST N OF KSFO. ...NRN CA... CONVECTIVE BAND WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO THE NRN SACRAMENTO VLY BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF VORT...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /MINUS 28-30 C AT 500 MB/... OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT AND DIURNAL HEATING ALL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL. ADDITIONAL THUNDER MAY ALSO AFFECT THE NRN CA CST AND CSTL RANGE AS VORT MOVES ASHORE LATER IN THE DAY. ...ERN NV/UT/SRN ID... FARTHER E...MAIN DEEP LAYER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO WRN/NRN NV/SE ORE. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO UT AND THE SNAKE RIVER VLY OF ID LATER TODAY. SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT/UPR DIFFLUENCE...AND PRESENCE OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STRONG GRADIENT AND ISALLOBARIC WIND FIELDS MAY YIELD A SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO COINCIDENTAL WITH CONVECTION GIVEN STRENGTH OF UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD. ..CORFIDI.. 02/28/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 28 20:02:38 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 28 Feb 2006 15:02:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060228200354.A92D7D487E@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 282001 SWODY1 SPC AC 281959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2006 VALID 282000Z - 011200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING...AND PRONOUNCED TROUGH FROM ERN GULF OF AK SWD OFFSHORE CA. PRIMARY MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL AND VIS IMAGERY AS SWIRL INVOF CAPE MENDOCINO. THIS FEATURE...AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NRN CA TOWARD SWRN ORE AND NWRN NV THROUGH TONIGHT. ...NRN CA... PRIMARY BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS -- WHICH HAS INCLUDED A FEW SMALL SUPERCELLS -- IS EVIDENT ATTM IN VIS AND REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY FROM SIERRAN FOOTHILLS ESE SAC...SWWD TO NRN FRINGES OF MRY BAY. AS NRN END OF THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHES UPON PENETRATION OF MORE ELEVATED/COOLER TERRAIN...MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VALLEY FROM MOD AREA ALMOST TO FAT. EXPECT MIDLEVEL COOLING -- PRODUCED BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF LAND FALLING SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION -- TO JUXTAPOSE VERTICALLY WITH OPTIMAL DIABATIC SFC HEATING. RESULTING BOOST IN LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD COMBINE WITH MID/UPPER 40S F SFC DEW POINTS TO YIELD MLCAPES 200-300 J/KG AND MUCAPES TOPPING 500 J/KG...PER MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. PRE-STORM VWP FROM SAC AREA INDICATED FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...AUGMENTED BY OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED BACKING OF SFC WINDS. VEERING/WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH ATTENDANT REDUCTION IN BOTH SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE...IS EXPECTED AFTER PASSAGE OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...THOUGH SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER N. ...GREAT BASIN... WIDELY SCATTERED/HIGH-BASED TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS BAROCLINICALLY ENHANCED CONVECTIVE BAND NOW OVER CENTRAL/NERN NV SHIFTS EWD THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL...MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ALSO MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED BAND. CONTINUED SFC HEATING OF RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINT BOUNDARY LAYERS MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LIMITS...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR SUBSEVERE CONVECTIVE GUSTS SUPERIMPOSED ON STRONG GRADIENT FLOW TO YIELD DAMAGING WIND. ..EDWARDS.. 02/28/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 1 00:08:19 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 31 Jan 2006 19:08:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060201000904.EA0F78B382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010005 SWODY1 SPC AC 010003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0603 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2006 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE NERN PACIFIC...CENTERED NEAR 48N 136W. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PAC NW AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH THIS REGION TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED STRONG DYNAMICS AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECTED COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR THIS AREA. ..PETERS.. 02/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 1 05:49:28 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 01 Feb 2006 00:49:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060201055009.42F318B367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010548 SWODY1 SPC AC 010546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2006 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE PSX 35 WNW VCT 25 SSW TPL 45 ESE ACT 40 WSW IER 20 SSE ESF 20 SSE PIB 40 NE MOB 50 SSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 35 E OLM 25 WSW PDX ONP 50 WSW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE CRP 35 WNW NIR 30 N HDO 40 S BWD 15 SW DAL 40 NE TXK 25 SW MEM 35 NE TUP 25 ENE 0A8 30 SSW DHN 45 SSW AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN TX TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... 00Z GFS/NAM ARE TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY REACHING SRN TX BY 00Z...BEFORE MOVING NEWD TOWARD LA TONIGHT. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL TX AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING/ OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD. A WARM FRONT/ COASTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE MID/UPPER TX COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY NOT MOVE INLAND ACROSS SRN LA UNTIL AFTER 00Z. FAST FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN STATES WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVING OVER THE PAC NW COAST TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. ...SERN TX TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WRN GULF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALLOW MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD. LOWER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED INLAND ACROSS ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT HAS ALREADY SPREAD EWD ACROSS TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. FURTHER STEEPENING OF THESE LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED ATOP THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CAP UNTIL EITHER SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION AND/OR THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG ASCENT CAN WEAKEN THE CAP FOR TSTM INITIATION. SOME SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN THE CAP BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 800-1200 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SURFACE BASED STORMS FROM THE MID/UPPER TX COAST INLAND WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND ALSO ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...POTENTIALLY AS FAR EAST AS WRN LA. STORM CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE THE INITIAL STORM MODES WITH THE EXPECTED TSTMS. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR SUGGEST HAIL WILL BE MORE LIKELY WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN TX. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AS MODELS SUGGEST A QUASI-LINEAR MCS DEVELOPING AND MOVING EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION FROM THE UPPER TX COAST TO POTENTIALLY THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY 12Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER TX COAST/SERN TX EWD ACROSS SRN LA AS THE COASTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ..PETERS.. 02/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 1 13:01:47 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 01 Feb 2006 08:01:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060201130221.4A28F8B376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011300 SWODY1 SPC AC 011258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST WED FEB 01 2006 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE PSX 40 SE BAZ 35 W AUS 15 NE TPL 30 S TYR 30 W IER HEZ PIB 30 NNE MOB 40 WSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 35 E OLM 25 WSW PDX ONP 50 WSW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE CRP 35 WNW NIR 25 S JCT 30 E ABI 10 ESE GYI 30 NNW DEQ 55 W MEM 35 NE TUP 25 ENE 0A8 30 SSW DHN 45 SSW AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E CNTRL/SE TX TO THE CNTRL GULF CST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH RELATIVELY FAST WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS MAIN JET REMAINS OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES. SRN STREAM VORT NOW OVER FAR W TX SHOULD CONTINUE ESE ACROSS S TX TODAY...BEFORE RECURVING ENE TONIGHT AND ASSUMING A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. SLY FLOW NOW UNDERWAY ACROSS CNTRL AND E TX WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. DEVELOPING WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM S OF KGLS TO NEAR KLRD SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY N ACROSS THE TX GULF CSTL PLN AS WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY. THE LOW SHOULD REDEVELOP E/NE ALONG THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LIFTS N TO THE LA CST. ...SE TX TO CNTRL GULF CST... SURFACE PRESSURE FALL CENTER OVER THE LWR RIO GRANDE SUGGESTS THAT CYCLOGENESIS DOWNSTREAM FROM W TX VORT IS ALREADY OCCURRING NEAR KLRD. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL S TO SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FAIRLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/ NOW PRESENT OVER THE WRN GULF TO SPREAD NWD INTO SE TX... PERHAPS AS FAR W/N AS KCLL/KLFK. SURFACE HEATING WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED BY BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS IN SUBTROPICAL CONVEYOR. BUT EVEN WITH MODEST HEATING...COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WITH INCREASING ASCENT PROVIDED BY APPROACHING UPR VORT SHOULD BOOST AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES TO AOA 1000 J/KG. STOUT EML DEPICTED ON MORNING RAOB AT KDRT...AND IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...LIKELY WILL KEEP TX CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN STRENGTH/ EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE...AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ASCENT ALONG WARM FRONT...EXPECT THAT SURFACE-BASED INITIATION WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY OVER THE CNTRL TX GULF CSTL PLN. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM A BIT FARTHER W /NEAR KAUS/ AS APPROACH OF VORT AND ASSOCIATED COOLING ALOFT LEAD TO MORE RAPID OVERTURNING. FARTHER N...ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO NE TX/WRN LA AND SW AR. AMPLE /40+ KT/ DEEP SW TO WSWLY SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND HODOGRAPHS WILL BE ENLARGED IN THE LOWER LEVELS NEAR WARM FRONT OVER SE TX AND THE UPR TX GULF CST. THUS... POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR BOTH HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT E/NE INTO SRN LA BY EARLY TONIGHT. FAR SRN TRACK OF UPR VORT AND EXISTING COOL AIR MASS OVER THE N CNTRL GULF SUGGEST...HOWEVER...THAT THE TX STORMS LIKELY WILL EVOLVE INTO AN MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THE STRONGEST PART OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY REMAIN OVER THE GULF AS THE MCS MOVES E TO NEAR KMOB BY 12Z THURSDAY. ..CORFIDI.. 02/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 1 16:25:31 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 01 Feb 2006 11:25:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060201162604.4F7528B318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011622 SWODY1 SPC AC 011621 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 AM CST WED FEB 01 2006 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE PSX 40 SE BAZ 35 W AUS 15 NE TPL 30 S TYR 30 W IER HEZ PIB 30 NNE MOB 40 WSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 35 E OLM 25 WSW PDX ONP 50 WSW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE CRP 35 WNW NIR 25 S JCT 30 E ABI 10 ESE GYI 30 NNW DEQ 55 W MEM 35 NE TUP 25 ENE 0A8 30 SSW DHN 45 SSW AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SERN TX EWD ALONG CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SERN TX AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... A COMPACT BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD THRU SWRN TX IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE RETURN FLOW INTO SRN TX. SUBSTANTIAL CAP NOTED ON REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AT 12Z ACROSS SRN TX WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS UNDER THE PROCESSES OF UPWARD MOTION WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND CONTINUED MOISTENING AND HEATING LOWER LEVELS AS WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND. CURRENTLY WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SCENTRAL TX IN AREA OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS AND UPWARD MOTION DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT STORMS TAPPING INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO ABOVE 1500 J/KG NEAR THE COAST. SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AS HELICITIES RISE TO ABOVE 200 M2/S2 NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE ALONG UPPER TX COAST. ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SCENTRAL TX DURING AFTERNOON WILL BE PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL THREATS. SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD TONIGHT AS A POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SERN TX INTO SRN LA. WOULD EXPECT STORMS OVERNIGHT TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED PARTICULARLY INLAND AREAS. LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH WIND DAMAGE AS STORMS TAKE ON A MORE LINEAR MODE IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ..HALES.. 02/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 1 20:08:36 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 01 Feb 2006 15:08:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060201200911.58D348B385@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 012006 SWODY1 SPC AC 012004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S PSX 40 SSE BAZ 35 W AUS 15 NE TPL 30 SW TYR 40 WNW IER HEZ 25 W PIB 35 N MOB 40 S PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 35 E OLM 25 WSW PDX ONP 50 WSW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E CRP 35 NE COT 20 SE JCT 20 NNE BWD 30 NNE FTW 25 ESE FSM 25 W BVX 10 NNE MEM 45 S CBM 25 ENE GZH 35 S AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER TX GULF COAST TO SRN LA/MS... ...SERN TX/SRN LA-MS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP DEPICTS COMPACT BUT POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING STEADILY ESEWD ACROSS LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NEWD OVER LA THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY. STRONG DPVA/LIFT WAS ALREADY ACTING ON MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE CAPPING INVERSION AND SUPPORTING ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...FROM EAST OF SAT TO NORTH OF HOU. EXPECT ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THIS CORRIDOR TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. A CLUSTER OR TWO OF HAIL-PRODUCING TSTMS NEAR/WITHIN MID LEVEL TROUGH COULD SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE TXK/SHV AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING. HOWEVER...MORE VIGOROUS/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...AND LARGER HAIL...WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO EXPAND INLAND ACROSS THE TX COAST FROM VCT NEWD TO WEST OF HOU AS SURFACE LOW WEST OF VCT DEEPENS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...STRONGER WARM SECTOR INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY WHEN CRP 18Z SOUNDING IS ADJUSTED FOR LATEST INFLOW AIR MASS /TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AS STORMS TAP GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...AND ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS STORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE TX GULF COAST FROM VCT THROUGH HOU/GLS AREA. EVOLUTION INTO AN MCS APPEARS LIKELY BY LATE EVENING AS DEEP LAYER LARGER-SCALE CIRCULATION MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND AIDS IN UPSCALE ORGANIZATION. HAIL AND WIND THREAT SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE MCS AS IT SPREADS EWD ALONG THE LA GULF COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 02/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 01:02:00 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 01 Feb 2006 20:02:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060202010235.BE9338B36F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020100 SWODY1 SPC AC 020058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SSE PSX 35 N PSX 10 S CLL 45 NW UTS 35 N LFK 25 WNW IER 35 WNW HEZ 20 W PIB 20 N MOB 45 SE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 35 E OLM 25 WSW PDX ONP 50 WSW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SE CRP 10 NNE VCT 15 NNW BAZ 50 WNW TPL 10 SSE DUA 30 ESE RKR 35 NNE LIT 15 SSW MEM 30 SE CBM 20 ENE GZH 25 SSE AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SERN TX THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY... EARLY THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR LAGRANGE TEXAS...SEWD TO JUST S OF HOUSTON THEN INTO THE WRN GULF. A N-S ORIENTED BOUNDARY WITH DRYLINE CHARACTERISTICS EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SWD TO JUST E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO JUST W OF BROWNSVILLE. INFLUX OF HIGHEST THETA-E AIR HAS SPREAD INLAND BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES INTO PARTS OF SERN TX WITH AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR HAS OCCURRED N OF THE WARM FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT EAST OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH S TX. N OF THE WARM FRONT...ESELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN STATES HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER WHICH HAS KEPT MOST OF THE CONVECTION ELEVATED AND HAS SERVED AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR. HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY ELEVATED CELLULAR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS THAT ATTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. LATER THIS EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TO IN EXCESS OF 50 KT FARTHER EAST FROM EXTREME SERN TX INTO SRN LA RESULTING IN THE WARM FRONT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER THE WRN GULF LIFTING NWD. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO NWD DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR NEAR SURFACE BASED STORMS LATER TONIGHT OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATER TONIGHT...A STRONG MID LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INTO COASTAL LA...COINCIDENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. THE STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN SOME STORMS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS LINES WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. ..DIAL.. 02/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 05:43:43 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 00:43:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060202054419.69E368B382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020542 SWODY1 SPC AC 020540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S HUM ASD 30 SE PIB 40 WNW GZH TOI 15 WNW ABY 25 N VLD 45 SE VLD 25 SSE CTY 75 WNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE VRB 70 WSW APF ...CONT... 65 S 7R4 30 NW LFT 25 NNE IER 25 N ELD 15 E LIT 10 S JBR 40 NNE MKL BNA 20 NE CSV 10 NE HSS 45 NNE HKY 25 N DAN 20 W RIC 15 W WAL 85 E WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE BLI 25 NNE SEA 20 E AST 55 W ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND NERN GULF COAST STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SERN TX IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES AND DEAMPLIFY AS AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE MOVES SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH AL INTO THE CNTRL GULF BY LATE AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT NOW OFFSHORE MAY MOVE INLAND INTO PARTS OF SRN AL...SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. ...CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA... AN MCS WITH MOSTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND N OF WARM FRONT. SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE STORMS MAY BE CLOSER TO SURFACE BASED. PRIMARY CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INLAND. STRONG 60+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT ENEWD ALONG THE GULF COASTAL STATES DURING THE DAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE NWD ADVECTION OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY RESIDING S OF WARM FRONT OVER THE W CNTRL GULF. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S MAY SPREAD INLAND TO PARTS OF SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE AND CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT IN WAKE OF MCS BY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST ASCENT IS FORECAST TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR WITH TIME. HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG N-S BOUNDARY WITHIN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE...ESPECIALLY IF HEATING MATERIALIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL MAY ALSO EXIST FOR INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS ALONG THE SRN END OF THE MCS AS RICHER MOISTURE ADVECTS INLAND. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND LINES. DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY THROUGH MID EVENING. SOME HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 02/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 12:57:17 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 07:57:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060202125747.3567E8B36F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021255 SWODY1 SPC AC 021253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE BVE 40 S MOB 35 NNE MOB 30 NW GZH TOI 15 WNW ABY 25 N VLD 35 N GNV 30 SSE CTY 75 WNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE VRB 70 WSW APF ...CONT... 30 SSE BVE 35 SSW MOB 40 SSW PIB 30 SE ESF 30 NE IER 25 WSW LLQ 20 ESE HOT 25 SW RKR MKO 20 ESE UMN 35 SW FAM 20 ESE POF 40 NNE MKL BNA 20 NE CSV 10 NE HSS 45 NNE HKY 30 NNE DAN 25 E CHO MRB 30 N CXY 20 W ABE 25 SW NEL 50 ESE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE BLI 25 NNE SEA 20 E AST 55 W ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE ERN GULF CST RGN... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN LA UPR VORT SHOULD ACCELERATE NE TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD WHILE A SERIES OF FAST-MOVING IMPULSES SERVE TO CARVE A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL U.S. SURFACE LOW NOW NEAR KBTR SHOULD LIFT RAPIDLY NE TO NEAR KERI BY 12Z FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT N INTO CNTRL GA LATER TODAY...AND REDEVELOP NE TO THE MID ATLANTIC CSTL PLN EARLY FRIDAY. ...ERN GULF CST TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT... SQLN WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS NOW OVER SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE APPEARS TO MARK DEEP LAYER WIND SHIFT IN SRN QUADRANT OF EJECTING UPR TROUGH. THIS WIND SHIFT...AND THE ASSOCIATED BAND OF ASCENT... SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE DISTURBANCE DEAMPLIFIES AND LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE GULF CST. IN ADDITION...RAPID MOTION OF TROUGH SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL OUTPACE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE FAR NERN GULF. THESE FACTORS SHOULD SERVE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SQLN AS THE CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES E INTO N FL AND GA LATER TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN 40 TO 50 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND THEIR ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...ERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WARM FRONT WILL REDEVELOP N OF THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS DEEP LAYER FLOW BACKS AND STRENGTHENS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. OFFSHORE SURFACE OBS IN THE WRN ATLANTIC AND SATELLITE CLOUD TRENDS SUGGEST THAT AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE CAROLINAS S OF FRONT WILL BE MODIFIED POLAR IN NATURE. THUS...DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SQLN SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AS NRN PART OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SC AND THE ERN HALF OF NC TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. WHILE 60-70 KT DEEP SW FLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONVECTIVE BAND WILL POSE A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SMALL SCALE BOWS WITH DAMAGING WIND...ANY SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ...NE LA INTO CNTRL/NRN MS/NW AL TODAY... A BAND OR TWO OF COMPARATIVELY LOW-TOPPED STORMS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO PRECEDE WEAKENING UPR VORT CENTER AS IT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE UPR SOUTH TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY YIELD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..CORFIDI.. 02/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 16:31:31 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 11:31:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060202163204.7F19C8B379@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021627 SWODY1 SPC AC 021625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PFN 25 SW MAI 35 SW ABY 45 NE MGR 30 WSW JAX 30 SSE CTY 75 WNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE PNS DHN 25 WSW AUO 40 SSE BHM 25 W MEI 40 S MLU 20 E SHV 45 NNW GGG 10 W MLC 25 NE FSM 30 S UNO 35 NW DYR 40 SSE PAH BNA 20 NE CSV 10 NE HSS 45 NNE HKY 30 NNE DAN 25 E CHO MRB 30 N CXY 20 W ABE 25 SW NEL 50 ESE ACY ...CONT... 50 ENE VRB 70 WSW APF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN GA AND EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... BROAD TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL U.S. WITH THE VIGOROUS S/WV TROF INITIALLY LOWER MS VALLEY LIFTING RAPIDLY NEWD REACHING MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS NRN MS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO SOME DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THE STRONG OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE DRIVEN BY THE LWR MS VALLEY S/WV TROUGH IS NOW WEAKENING OVER SWRN GA SWWD INTO NERN GULF AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. THE S/WV IS MOVING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE SOURCE OF STILL FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE OVER THE NERN GULF. HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED TO STILL BE IN PLACE TO MAINTAIN A LOW END THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE/ISOLATED TORNADOES THRU THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PART OF S GA AND ERN FL PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A LOW END THREAT OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE TONIGHT CAROLINA COAST AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. COLD AIR ALOFT WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON PORTIONS OF LOWER MS VALLEY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS MLCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE SRN AR INTO NRN MS PARTICULARLY WHERE SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR. ..HALES.. 02/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 20:26:08 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 15:26:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060202202639.097BA8B366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 022000 SWODY1 SPC AC 021959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CST THU FEB 02 2006 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PFN 30 NNW AAF 10 NNE TLH 40 WNW AYS 30 WSW JAX 30 SSE CTY 75 WNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE VRB 70 WSW APF ...CONT... 40 SE PNS 10 ESE DHN 30 SW AUO 25 SSW SEM 20 NNE PIB 40 NNE HEZ 25 W MLU 15 N ELD 25 SW LIT 25 SE BVX 30 WSW DYR 25 ENE DYR 25 SW CKV 25 E BNA 20 NE CSV 10 NE HSS 45 NNE HKY 30 NNE DAN 25 E CHO MRB 30 N CXY 20 W ABE 25 SW NEL 50 ESE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NERN GULF COASTAL AREA... ...SRN GA/NRN FL... THOUGH THE STRONGER MASS CONVERGENCE HAD TRANSLATED NEWD INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS IN TANDEM WITH THE DEAMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...A RESIDUAL BAND OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS PERSISTED OVER THE ERN GULF BASIN INTO THE FL PNHDL THIS AFTN. PERSISTENT INFLUX OF WARM/UNSTABLE PARCELS FEEDING INTO THE EXISTING BAND OF TSTMS /SRN PORTION OF MORNING SQUALL LINE/ HAS CONTRIBUTED TO BACKBUILDING/TRAINING OF CELLS FROM THE CNTRL FL PNHDL INTO THE NERN GULF BASIN. VWP FROM TLH SHOWS A LONG HODOGRAPH WITH SIGNIFICANT VEERING IN THE LOWEST 3 KM...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. BUT...MARINE FRONT MAY MOVE SLIGHTLY INLAND ACROSS NWRN FL/ERN FL PNHDL THIS EVENING SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS. SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP OFFSHORE WOULD LIKELY EVOLVE QUICKLY INTO BOW ECHO/LINE SEGMENTS...THEN TEND TO NOT HAVE A LONG LIFE CYCLE OVER LAND. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NWRN FL. ...COASTAL GA/CAROLINAS... GIVEN BACKING LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE OH VLY IMPULSE...AIR MASS WAS GRADUALLY MODIFYING ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF GA/CAROLINAS. BUT...THE CHARACTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD AND BUOY OBS SUGGEST THAT QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL. THUS...NRN PARTS OF THE RESIDUAL SQUALL LINE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND GA OVERNIGHT. NONETHELESS...PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL JUSTIFY LOW PROBABILITIES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TORNADOES. ...PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... A BAND OR TWO OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE/FRONT. WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS DIMINISHING WITH TIME AS SURFACE HEATING IS KEPT TO A MINIMUM AND MASS CONVERGENCE SHIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE AREA. ..RACY.. 02/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 00:45:15 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 19:45:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060203004546.EF2CB8B36F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030043 SWODY1 SPC AC 030041 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 PM CST THU FEB 02 2006 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW PFN 20 NE TLH AYS 15 WNW SSI 15 S SSI 15 NNW SGJ 30 E GNV 25 W OCF 75 WNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE PNS 30 ENE MAI 20 WNW VDI 30 NNE OGB 30 NNE FAY 25 ENE WAL ...CONT... 50 ENE MLB 85 W APF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN FL INTO EXTREME SERN GA... ...NRN FL INTO EXTREME SERN GA... A LARGE LINEAR MCS EXTENDS FROM SRN GA THROUGH NRN FL AND INTO THE NERN GULF. ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED WITHIN THIS MCS INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S HAS ADVECTED NEWD INTO NRN FL. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S...STORMS ALONG THE SRN FLANK OF THE MCS ARE CLOSE TO BEING SURFACE BASED AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE 00Z JACKSONVILLE RAOB. INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL HOWEVER OWING TO WEAK LAPSE RATES. LATEST VWP DATA SHOWS A STRONG SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS NRN FL CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FORWARD FLANK OF THE MCS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND TRAINING NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...LATER TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES NEWD. THIS MAY RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITHIN THE MCS FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. ..DIAL.. 02/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 05:56:44 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 00:56:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060203055717.2E8918B377@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030555 SWODY1 SPC AC 030553 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CST THU FEB 02 2006 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE MLB 55 SSW SRQ ...CONT... 50 SSW BVE 25 SE MSY 25 SE MCB 40 NW PIB 25 W MEI 45 WSW 0A8 20 NNW MGM AUO MCN 45 SW AGS 30 ESE AGS 25 ENE OGB 30 SSE FLO 30 SSW ILM 55 ESE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 10 S OLM 20 SSE SLE 40 S EUG 25 NE 4BK 55 WSW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW 7R4 10 SW BPT 30 NNE UTS 15 WSW TYR 30 S PRX 10 SE DEQ 15 SSE HOT 20 NNE UOX 30 N HSV 20 W TYS 25 S BLF 35 SSW CHO 25 SSW NHK 55 ESE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SERN STATES AND FL... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL JET MOVES SEWD INTO ITS BASE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER LA WITHIN THE DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF THE STRONG UPPER JET EARLY FRIDAY THEN LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY. THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE EWD IN THE PROCESS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA DURING THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF MAY LIFT NWD ONTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. A SECONDARY WARM FRONT MAY FORM FARTHER INLAND AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. ...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES... PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL LIKELY SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF SRN AL...SRN GA AND NRN FL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...RICHER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF MARINE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. ONGOING CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY LIMIT ITS ABILITY TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND THAN THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST AND NRN FL. DESPITE THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FARTHER W INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INITIALLY IN POST FRONTAL REGION AND EVENTUALLY ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF MS AND LA. INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME SURFACE BASED ALONG THE FRONT LATER IN THE DAY. THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER EAST WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IN ZONE OF DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND WHETHER THESE STORMS CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD GRADUALLY MOISTEN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST LOW 60S DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE INTO SRN AL AND SRN GA. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES AND SUPERCELLS. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT FROM THE CNTRL/NERN GULF COASTAL AREA INTO NRN AND CNTRL FL. STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ..DIAL.. 02/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 12:35:45 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 07:35:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060203123611.8E267D47DE@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031233 SWODY1 SPC AC 031232 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE MLB 55 WSW FMY ...CONT... 25 ESE BVE 25 SE MCB 40 NW PIB 15 NNE MEI MCN 30 SSE FLO 55 ESE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 10 S OLM 20 SSE SLE 40 S EUG 25 NE 4BK 55 WSW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW 7R4 30 NNE UTS 15 WSW TYR 30 S PRX 10 SE DEQ 25 ENE MSL 25 SSW NHK 55 ESE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S... 12Z OBSERVED DATA AND OVERNIGHT MODELS SUGGEST MAINTAINING CURRENT SLGT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW AMPLIFYING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THOUGH EXTENSIVE CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT HAS ESTABLISHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN FL INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO...STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW MODIFICATION TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION TODAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION BY LATER TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING OR RE-INTENSIFY LATER THIS MORNING OVER THE NERN GULF INTO NRN/CENTRAL FL ONCE HEATING OVERCOMES WEAK NOCTURNAL CAPPING INVERSION. 12Z SOUNDING FROM TBW INDICATES AIR MASS IS ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED THIS MORNING...WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE /I.E. 58 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 250+ M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH/. THUS...SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE BY THE MID MORNING INTO CENTRAL FL...THOUGH SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY CONTINUE UNDERCUTTING EWD MOVING STORMS. ONCE OUTFLOW STALLS...TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL INCREASE AS STORMS MOVE ENEWD OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND REMAIN ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. OTHER DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER WEST INTO SRN MS/FAR SRN AL WITHIN ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT/STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND DEVELOP QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS REMAINDER OF SERN U.S. OVERNIGHT. SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY WITH WSWLY H5 WINDS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY/OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH 90+ KT MID LEVEL JET ROUNDING BASE OF DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THEREFORE...STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS/SMALL BOW ECHOES WITH ENHANCED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/POSSIBLE TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ACROSS NRN FL/FAR SRN GA. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN/MID LEVELS COOL. ..EVANS.. 02/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 16:35:29 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 11:35:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060203163556.AACCFD47F8@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031632 SWODY1 SPC AC 031630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE BVE 15 NE MSY 15 N BTR POE 30 NW POE 35 SSE SHV 30 E SHV 45 SSW GLH 15 NNW MEI 10 W MCN 30 SSE FLO 55 ESE ILM ...CONT... 35 NE VRB 50 SSW SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 10 S OLM 20 SSE SLE 40 S EUG 25 NE 4BK 55 WSW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW 7R4 30 NNE UTS 15 WSW TYR 30 S PRX 20 SSE DEQ 30 NNE PBF 15 SW MKL 50 SW LOZ 40 NNW SSU 35 S DCA 55 ESE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FROM LA/MS EWD TO THE SE ATLANTIC COAST.... ...SE STATES TODAY INTO TONIGHT... A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX/OK WILL MOVE EWD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID LEVEL WAVE...CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN LA/MS ALONG AN E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE WAKE OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EJECTING NEWD OVER PA. THIS FRONT SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NWD ACROSS SRN MS/AL/GA TODAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE REMNANTS OF A WEAKER LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE EJECTING NEWD OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N FL. A LINEAR CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NE GULF WAVE...AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW GENERATED BY THESE STORMS IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS WNWWD TO NEAR THE LA DELTA...AND THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS IS CONFINED TO AREAS OF FL AND THE OPEN GULF S OF THE BOUNDARY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE CENTRAL FL STORMS SHOULD TEND TO REDUCE THE SEVERE STORM THREAT ACROSS N FL THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH SOME RECOVERY EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY ACROSS NRN LA AND SPREAD EWD/NEWD ACROSS MS IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THAT WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING...RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESIDUAL L0W-LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE L0W-MID 50S MAY SUPPORT A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. FARTHER E/SE...GRADUAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON FROM SE LA INTO SRN MS/AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 500-1500 J/KG/. LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALSO INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS SRN LA...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING INVOF THE NE GULF COAST. ..THOMPSON.. 02/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 20:05:48 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 15:05:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060203200612.4AD55D47EF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 032004 SWODY1 SPC AC 032002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0202 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE BVE 10 NNE MSY 30 W BTR 35 SE POE 25 ENE POE 45 ENE MLU 40 SSW GWO 40 NE MEI 15 NNE CSG 10 W MCN 30 SSE FLO 55 ESE ILM ...CONT... 45 NNE PBI 50 SSW SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 10 S OLM 20 SSE SLE 40 S EUG 25 NE 4BK 55 WSW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE 7R4 45 SE LFK 50 NE LFK 15 ESE SHV 35 WSW LLQ 25 SSW MEM 15 SW MKL 50 SW LOZ 40 NNW SSU 35 S DCA 55 ESE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY EWD INTO THE SERN STATES... ...LWR MS VLY EWD INTO THE DEEP S... MID-AFTN MESOANALYSIS PLACES AN INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT ARCING FROM THE MID-MS VLY SWWD ACROSS CNTRL LA THEN WWD INTO SCNTRL TX. A WEAK LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SWRN MS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO CNTRL FL. THE SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDED EWD ACROSS CNTRL PARTS OF MS...AL...GA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS. PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE PARENT TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE MS DELTA. THIS MAY BE AIDING ONGOING TSTMS IN THE LWR MS VLY. SO FAR...LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS OWING TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD TOWARD THE REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL AREA AS THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH AXIS/JET STREAK OVER CNTRL TX TRANSLATES EWD. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON THE MODIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE LAST NIGHT/S ACTIVITY ACTED TO STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT. BUT...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE SITUATED JUST OFF THE SURFACE AND THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW/MIXING...AIR MASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE AND SUPPORT TSTMS. THUS...APPROACHING/DEVELOPING TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS VLY MAY BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SRN MS/ERN LA EWD INTO AL AND WRN FL PNHDL. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SRN MS AND SRN AL WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN BACKED VCNTY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. ...SERN STATES... A SOMEWHAT SEPARATE AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM PARTS OF FL NEWD INTO SRN GA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. WARM CONVEYOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...WITH STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COMMENCING BY THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF TSTMS SHOULD RESULT...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED. CNTRL FL MCS HAS MAINTAINED A SUBSTANTIAL COLD DOME ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MAY GRADUALLY ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL SSWLY FLOW INCREASES TO 40-45 KTS. THOUGH TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY ELEVATED ACROSS EXTREME NRN FL...SRN GA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS...THE PROBABILITY FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS CNTRL FL WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MODIFY. INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH 50-60 KTS OF WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HIGHER THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF CNTRL FL WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY. ..RACY.. 02/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 00:53:12 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 19:53:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060204005336.CFE9FD47FC@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040051 SWODY1 SPC AC 040049 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE MIA 35 NW MTH ...CONT... 85 E BVE 20 S MOB 45 N MOB 45 SE MEI 45 WSW 0A8 TCL 25 NE TCL 10 WNW BHM 25 SW GAD 15 ENE ANB 10 S ATL 35 S AHN 40 W AGS 30 ENE AGS 15 N OGB 25 SSW FLO 20 NNW ILM 35 NE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 35 WNW SEA 40 S OLM 10 WNW PDX 10 S SLE EUG 25 ESE OTH 40 WNW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW HUM 15 E MSY 15 SSE PIB 15 NE MEI 25 NW TCL 30 SW HSV 40 NNE HSV 10 W CSV 40 ESE LOZ 20 E SSU 45 W NHK 50 E SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SERN STATES AND FL... ...SERN STATES... A BOUNDARY SEPARATING RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS FROM PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR EXTENDS FROM THE NERN GULF SEWD INTO SRN FL WHERE IT BECOMES LESS DEFINED WITHIN A MYRIAD OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. N OF THIS BOUNDARY...EVENING RAOB DATA SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MODERATE MUCAPE. THE INSTABILITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH NWD EXTENT INTO SRN GA. THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING OVER THE NERN GULF INTO CNTRL/NRN FL AND GA WITHIN REGION OF INCREASING ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND NWD ADVANCE OF THE MARINE BOUNDARY. NUMEROUS ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY SO FAR. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND THE STORMS BECOME CLOSER TO BEING SURFACE BASED...THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF NRN FL AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN GA. FARTHER WEST...A LINE OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES PERSISTS ACROSS WRN AL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE EWD TONIGHT WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT. THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SWD WITH TIME AS RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INLAND AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...STORMS ON THE SRN END OF MCS THAT CAN DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ..DIAL.. 02/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 06:10:42 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 01:10:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060204061105.5BE5BD5436@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040604 SWODY1 SPC AC 040603 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE AAF 20 SSW VLD 20 S VDI 25 E AGS 20 E CLT 15 W DAN 45 S CHO 30 SW NHK 45 ESE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NNW OMK 40 NW EAT 40 N DLS 35 WNW RDM 15 NW MFR 70 SW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW AAF 30 WSW MGR 35 S MCN 30 SSE AHN 15 ESE AVL 15 WSW BKW 35 NW EKN 25 SSE DUJ 30 NNW IPT 30 NW MSV 30 ENE POU 30 WSW ACK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FL THROUGH THE PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SYNOPSIS... SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TOWARD THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AS A STRONG IMPULSE ROTATES THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND LIFTS NEWD INTO THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC. ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE SERN STATES AND FL WHILE A WARM FRONT TRIES TO DEVELOPS INLAND ACROSS ERN NC INTO VA. ...GA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC... THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR INLAND WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA INTO SC EARLY SATURDAY CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA AS IT INTERCEPTS BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AS IMPULSE ROTATES THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED STORMS AND AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR RICHER MOISTURE OVER THE GULF STREAM TO ADVECT INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS AND ERN VA. HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF STREAM MAY LIMIT OVERALL QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN. COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD EJECTING IMPULSE WILL SPREAD EWD AND INTERCEPT THE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND EARLY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND THIS MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR. STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AS WELL AS ALONG THE FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED LINES AND A FEW SUPERCELLS IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING. ...FL... STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS FL AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON A LARGE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION IN THIS AREA. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SEWD DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ALSO FORECAST TO VEER EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE N. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE WIND PROFILES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS WITHIN THIS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION TO BECOME ORGANIZED AS SUPERCELLS OR BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..DIAL.. 02/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 12:44:19 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 07:44:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060204124442.14F19D565D@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041242 SWODY1 SPC AC 041241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE AAF 20 NE MGR 50 S AHN 20 N AHN 15 ENE AVL 30 WNW DAN BWI ILG 55 SE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NNW OMK 40 NW EAT 40 N DLS 35 WNW RDM 15 NW MFR 70 SW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW AAF 30 WSW MGR MCN 30 ESE ATL 10 E TYS 35 ENE JKL 25 ENE PKB 15 S DUJ 25 SSE ELM 45 N MSV 20 WNW ORH 50 E BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SOUTHEASTERN U.S. INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... SURFACE LOW NOW DEEPENING OVER FAR ERN KY WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NWD ALONG THE RIM OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NWD AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS... ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH ASSOCIATED 80-100 KT MID LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD AND MOVE OFF THE SC/GA COAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXTEND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWD TO JUST OFF THE SRN FL COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE FORECAST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS COMPLICATED BY EFFECTS OF EXTENSIVE CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MODEST WARM SECTOR...WITH ADDITION OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT CHS. PRIMARY QUESTION WILL BE HEATING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS REGION WILL LIKELY NEED TO HEAT INTO/THROUGH THE LOWER 70S TO BECOME TRULY SURFACE BASED. GIVEN TIMING OF FRONT AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...SHALLOW STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE MAY BE HARD TO OVERCOME. HOWEVER... SIGNIFICANT ASCENT AND FRONTAL LIFT MAY ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME NEARLY SURFACE BASED ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS/FL LATER THIS MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WITH STRONGER STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINES. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. NORTHWARD EXTENT OF SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT ALSO REMAINS QUESTIONABLE WITH WARM FRONT REMAINING IN PLACE AT 12Z NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. PRESSURE FALLS NORTH OF THIS FEATURE AND VERY STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD ALLOW WARM FRONT TO MIX/LIFT QUICKLY NWD TODAY. THUS...THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY SHIFT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS NEAR 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECT NWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. ..EVANS.. 02/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 16:27:07 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 11:27:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060204162729.58266D5676@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041625 SWODY1 SPC AC 041623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE CHS 30 SSW OGB 30 ESE SPA 25 ENE HKY 25 SE ROA 45 ENE CHO 15 ESE NHK 40 SSE WAL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S APF 30 ENE PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW 63S 40 E P69 55 S SMN 15 NNE OWY 20 SSE MFR 40 WSW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S CTY 20 NNE JAX 10 SSW SAV 20 E AND 20 E TRI 40 WNW EKN FKL 25 NNE JHW 30 E ROC 30 ENE UCA 20 WNW ORH 55 NE HYA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SE VA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS SE FL AND THE KEYS.... ...SYNOPSIS... AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 90-100 KT 500 MB JET WILL LIFT NNEWD OVER THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED 995 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE OH/WV BORDER DEEPENS AND OCCLUDES ACROSS SW ONTARIO BY TONIGHT. S OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE...A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD AND OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES/WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE PAC NW WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ...CAROLINAS/VA AREA... THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NWD INTO SE VA...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL NWD PROGRESS OF THE WARM SECTOR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD/THICK CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS/VA...AND ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE TODAY. THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING WILL BE A NARROW SWATH BENEATH THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THE ERN CAROLINAS/VA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS TODAY. ...GA/FL AREA... THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GA COAST AROUND MIDDAY...AND ACROSS ALL OF THE FL PENINSULA BY ABOUT 00Z. A NARROW BAND OF FORCED/SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS SE GA AND NRN/CENTRAL FL TODAY...BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND IMPACT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE STORM THREAT. AN UNCONTAMINATED MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS OVER SE FL WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F. EXPECT THE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE TO MOVE ACROSS SE FL AND THE KEYS BY 18-20Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..THOMPSON.. 02/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 20:03:08 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 15:03:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060204200330.141C4D5694@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 042001 SWODY1 SPC AC 041959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE CHS 25 SE FLO 20 SSW SOP 20 NNE GSO 25 NE ROA 35 ENE CHO 15 E NHK 45 SSE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S 3TH 25 SSE SMN 15 SW IDA 30 NNW OGD 20 SE ENV 25 NNE U31 30 SSW WMC 45 SW REO BNO 35 N RDM 25 NNW DLS EAT 30 SSW 63S 55 WNW 3TH 40 S 3TH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE SAV 10 W FLO 35 SSW GSO 15 N BLF 45 ENE CRW 25 WNW PIT ERI 15 NW ROC 40 E ART MPV 40 ESE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W EYW 40 SSE PBI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF VA/NC... ...ERN NC/VA... 100+ KT SLY H5 WIND MAX ALONG BASE OF THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO CNTRL NC/VA AT MID-AFTN AND WAS SUPPORTING SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER NWRN NC. THIS LOW SHOULD DEVELOP NWD ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS HAVE EVOLVED. STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM HAS BEEN TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE NWD WITH 58-63F SURFACE DEW POINTS COMMON ALONG/S OF THE WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM CNTRL VA TO SRN DE. HEATING HAS BEEN MINIMAL TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OWING TO CLOUDS...BUT STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT HAVE BEEN ADVANCING EWD...CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG FROM THE NC PIEDMONT NEWD INTO ERN VA. A THIN BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ALONG A FRONT FROM CNTRL WV SWD INTO CNTRL NC. COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH HAS BEEN LAGGING BEHIND THIS CONVECTION SOMEWHAT...BUT SHOULD CATCH UP WITH THE LINE LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE. THUS... CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY INTO A STRONGER LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL/ERN VA AND ERN NC LATE THIS AFTN. VERTICAL WIND PROFILE WAS QUITE STRONG...AND UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE AS BUOYANCY REMAINS SOMEWHAT WEAK. BUT...GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER SUSTAINED STORMS LATE AFTN-EVE...CONVECTIVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO WILL BE THREATS. THE HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST ALONG/S OF THE WARM FRONT FROM NCNTRL/NERN NC INTO SCNTRL/SERN VA. THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROBABLY SPREAD FARTHER NWD INTO SERN PA AND SRN NEW ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT...WITH AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT AS FAR N AS CNTRL NJ/EXTREME SERN PA. ...SRN FL... PRE-FRONTAL LINEAR MCS HAS LARGELY CLEARED SRN FL...LESSENING SEVERE RISKS. SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WAS SETTLING SWD THROUGH CNTRL FL AT MID-AFTN...BUT STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT IN WAKE OF MORNING MCS AND DECREASED MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PARENT FRONT WILL PRECLUDE TSTMS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ..RACY.. 02/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 5 00:36:22 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 19:36:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060205003643.CD071D464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050034 SWODY1 SPC AC 050033 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E ILM 35 N AVC 25 WSW AOO 20 E BFD 30 NNW ITH 55 WNW GFL 20 NNE RUT 50 ESE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W EYW 40 SSE PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID-ATLANTIC... A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN US IS SPREADING VERY STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ATTM. THIS COMBINED WITH DIVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CNTRL VA. A DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST BEHIND THE LINE. AS THE BAND OF STRONG ASCENT DRIFTS EWD...THE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS MD INTO NJ THIS EVENING. THE LINE OF STORMS IS BEING FUELED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 55 TO 60 F RANGE WITH A 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS ERN VA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK...THE LOW-LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT IS CREATING A WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AS A RESULT...HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THE STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...THE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ..BROYLES.. 02/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 5 05:33:41 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 05 Feb 2006 00:33:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060205053402.2DE42D47DD@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050532 SWODY1 SPC AC 050530 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LFT 15 S POE 35 SSW SHV 20 S TXK 10 SE HOT 60 E LIT 10 ENE UOX 35 S CBM 40 SSE MEI 25 WNW GPT 20 NNW MSY LFT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS VALLEY... THE LARGE ERN US TROUGH WILL SWING QUICKLY EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SEWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES TODAY. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FORM IN THE PLAINS AND SHIFT EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DUE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN SRN AR AND NRN LA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA AT 06Z SHOW A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INVERSION MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. NAM AND GFS FORECASTS AGREE WITH DEVELOPING A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING SEWD INTO MS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE MARGINAL. ..BROYLES.. 02/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 5 12:28:23 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 05 Feb 2006 07:28:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060205122841.75EA9D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051226 SWODY1 SPC AC 051225 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0625 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2006 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE GGG 10 NNE DEQ 20 SW RUE 50 ENE LIT TUP 20 NW TCL 40 ESE MEI 30 NE MCB 15 NNW IER 40 NNE GGG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN AR/NRN LA INTO NRN MS... DEEP UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...120+ KT H25 JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ASCENT WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS UPPER JET WILL BE GREATLY AUGMENTED BY WAA ALONG NOSE OF 50+ KT SSWLY H85 JET DEVELOPING ACROSS LA/MS OVERNIGHT. NAM DEVELOPS SIGNIFICANT H85-H7 VERTICAL MOTION OVER THIS REGION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/NAMKF/WRF-NMM4 INDICATE MUCAPE WILL REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG RESULTING IN SHALLOW...ELEVATED STORMS WITH MINIMAL SEVERE RISK AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS/MOVES QUICKLY EWD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ..EVANS.. 02/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 5 16:24:37 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 05 Feb 2006 11:24:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060205162455.CA131D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051622 SWODY1 SPC AC 051620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2006 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE GGG 10 NNE DEQ 15 SSE RUE 45 SSE BVX 25 NNW TUP 20 NW TCL 40 ESE MEI 30 W MCB 25 N POE 40 NNE GGG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE MS VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF A LEE CYCLONE OVER THE OK PANHANDLE WILL DEVELOP SEWD TO NRN LA. THIS LEE CYCLONE HAS INDUCED SLY L0W-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS TX AND THE WRN GULF...WHERE A MODIFYING CONTINENTAL AIR MASS IS RETURNING NWD. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 58-62 F IN A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS THE EXTREME W/NW GULF BY TONIGHT...WHILE SOMEWHAT LESSER DEWPOINTS /LOW-MID 50S/ ARE EXPECTED FARTHER INLAND ACROSS E TX/LA. THIS MOISTURE IN A WAA REGIME SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PARCELS TO REACH SATURATION AND REALIZE WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY BY LATE TONIGHT OVER NRN LA/AR/NW MS. ..THOMPSON.. 02/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 5 20:01:41 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 05 Feb 2006 15:01:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060205200200.1A6FBD45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051959 SWODY1 SPC AC 051958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 PM CST SUN FEB 05 2006 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE GGG 40 WNW DEQ 15 WSW FSM 10 E RUE 45 SSE BVX 30 NNE TUP 20 NW TCL 40 ESE MEI 30 W MCB 25 N POE 40 NNE GGG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ARKLATEX TO LWR MS VLY... SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE SEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WAS ADVECTING MODIFIED CP AIR MASS NWD THROUGH THE WRN GULF BASIN WITH 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS AS FAR N AS HOUSTON AS OF MID-AFTN. LLJ WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...ENHANCING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE SPREADS SEWD...GRADUAL MOISTENING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION ALOFT. SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 03-12Z FROM WRN AR/NRN LA SEWD INTO THE LWR MS VLY TO SUPPORT ARCS OF ELEVATED TSTMS. THOUGH CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...POOR QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN WILL MITIGATE UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND PROSPECTS FOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. ..RACY.. 02/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 6 00:51:57 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 05 Feb 2006 19:51:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060206005216.A2E1FD45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060050 SWODY1 SPC AC 060049 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CST SUN FEB 05 2006 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ESF 20 S IER 35 SSW SHV 30 NNW GGG 40 W DEQ 10 NNE RKR 30 N RUE 30 SSW JBR 30 NNE TUP 30 E CBM 45 SSW TCL 35 S MEI 15 WSW PIB 30 W MCB 20 ESE ESF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS VALLEY... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE PLAINS STATES WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT SPREADING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING WAVE...A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 60 KT WHICH WILL CREATE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME. INITIATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY AROUND 06Z IN SRN AR AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND GFS MODELS. STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE QUICKLY DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW A STRONG INVERSION NEAR THE SFC TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP STORMS ELEVATED. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INVERSION AND VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND DRIFT SEWD INTO MS LATE TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 02/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 6 05:36:57 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 06 Feb 2006 00:36:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060206053713.43AD9D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060534 SWODY1 SPC AC 060533 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 PM CST SUN FEB 05 2006 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E BVE 15 NNW BTR 35 W MLU 30 NE ELD 35 ENE PBF 10 SW UOX 30 WNW BHM 40 NNW MCN 40 NNW SAV 20 S SAV 20 WSW SSI 40 NNW GNV 55 WSW CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN STATES... A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ONGOING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SE AR AND NRN MS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SEWD DURING THE DAY AND SFC HEATING TAKES PLACE...THE STORMS SHOULD EXPAND FROM ENE TO WSW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE STORMS MAY TRANSITION FROM AN ELEVATED NATURE TO MORE CLOSELY SFC-BASED IF THE CONVECTION CAN MOVE AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY INTO THE WARM SECTOR WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR 60 F. HOWEVER...THE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FORECAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THE STORMS WILL HAVE TROUBLE DOING SO AND MAY REDEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SEWD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON SHOW VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. HAIL WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY OR OVER THE EDGE OF THE COOL DOME. IF THE STORMS CAN MOVE OUT INTO THE WARM SECTOR AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING AS THE LINE MOVES SEWD INTO SRN GA AND FL PANHANDLE ..BROYLES.. 02/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 6 12:47:53 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 06 Feb 2006 07:47:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060206124809.0AD1FD46A6@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061245 SWODY1 SPC AC 061244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 AM CST MON FEB 06 2006 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE BPT 20 ESE POE MLU 20 W GLH 30 WSW UOX 25 W MSL 20 SSE CHA 35 SW OGB 20 NNE SSI 55 E AAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW NEAR SHV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW EXTENDING ROUGHLY E-W FROM NRN LA INTO SRN GA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH EXTENSIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION REINFORCING COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO ITS NORTH. AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS EWD...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD AND MOVE ACROSS SRN MS/SERN LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NARROW TONGUE OF LOWER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS IS EVIDENT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH GFS AND RUC BRING NEWD AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO SRN LA/FAR SRN MS TODAY. NAM APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS SURFACE DEW POINTS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY...AS IT FALSELY INITIALIZED 65+F SURFACE DEW POINTS JUST OFF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK TODAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG WITH H5 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 KT OVERSPREADING MODEST WARM SECTOR TODAY. PRIMARY CONCERN FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS TIED TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIL TO GENERATE EVEN 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE TODAY...WHICH TEMPERS CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPING VIGOROUS MOIST CONVECTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR ACROSS MODEST WARM SECTOR WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF EWD MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ..EVANS.. 02/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 6 16:34:42 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 06 Feb 2006 11:34:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060206163459.E776BD46A5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061632 SWODY1 SPC AC 061630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST MON FEB 06 2006 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE BPT 40 SE POE 30 SSE MLU 30 SSW GLH 10 S MKL 55 NNE HSV 20 SSE CHA 30 SE AGS 20 NNE SSI 55 E AAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER N TX/ERN OK/AR THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE NRN GULF STATES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID LEVEL WAVE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER NE LA WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS MS/AL TO S GA. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE NRN MS AREA IN THE REGION OF STRONGER WAA/ASCENT. S OF THIS CONVECTION...A MODIFYING CP AIR MASS /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 F/ IS RETURNING NWD TO SRN LA/MS/AL IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY BASED NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS SRN LA/MS/AL BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE MUCAPE MAY APPROACH 500 J/KG. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ..THOMPSON.. 02/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 6 19:56:46 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 06 Feb 2006 14:56:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060206195701.1CEB6D469C@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061954 SWODY1 SPC AC 061953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST MON FEB 06 2006 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE BPT 35 SSW ESF 45 NE JAN 20 NNW CBM 10 S HSV 25 E RMG 30 SE AGS 20 NNE SSI 45 WSW CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PARTS OF SERN LA/SERN MS/SWRN AL... BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR/AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER E CENTRAL MS/W CENTRAL AL...AND SWWD ALONG SURFACE FRONT INTO PARTS OF SERN LA. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION /MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AOB 500 J/KG/...STRONG/GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW -- PARTICULARLY N OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST -- IS SUPPORTING SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/WEAK ROTATION. THOUGH LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL OR A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST/BRIEF TORNADO. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD EXIST THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DECREASING THREAT INTO THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION. ..GOSS.. 02/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 7 01:03:05 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 06 Feb 2006 20:03:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060207010325.EFF7AD469C@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070101 SWODY1 SPC AC 070059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CST MON FEB 06 2006 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE HUM 15 S ASD 25 NNW GZH 15 NNE AUO 35 NW MCN 35 NNW VDI 35 WSW SAV 20 W JAX 60 ESE AAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN MS...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE THROUGH SWRN GA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN S CNTRL AL SWWD THROUGH SERN MS AND SERN LA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH SRN AL...SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT. STORMS THAT INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT FROM SERN MS THROUGH SRN AL. A 40+ KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST WITHIN ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF MODEST PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY MARGINAL WITH MUCAPE AOB 300 J/KG AND SHOULD BECOME MORE LIMITED AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES EWD AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL. NEVERTHELESS...LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND HELP TO SUSTAIN A LINE OF FORCED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THIS EVENING. SOME ORGANIZED STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED IN THE LINE AND A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER PERSISTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE SURFACE BASED. THE INCREASINGLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND TENDENCY FOR THE LOW LEVEL JET TO VEER WITH TIME SUGGEST ANY REMAINING SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 02/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 7 05:30:09 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 07 Feb 2006 00:30:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060207053025.ADA87D47DD@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070528 SWODY1 SPC AC 070526 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 PM CST MON FEB 06 2006 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN GA THROUGH FL... COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH SRN GA AND INTO NRN FL ALONG COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FROM FL INTO SRN GA. WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE ADVECTION OF SLIGHTLY RICHER MOISTURE RESIDING OVER THE NERN GULF INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR TONIGHT INTO VERY EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...OWING TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY MARGINAL AND CONFINED TO THE LAYERS UNFAVORABLE FOR ICE PRODUCTION. A BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY STILL BE IN PROGRESS WITHIN ZONE OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE FROM SERN GA INTO NRN FL EARLY TUESDAY...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR UNFAVORABLE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. CONVECTION OVER FL SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE STRONGER FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT GRADUALLY LIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND AS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE. ..DIAL.. 02/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 7 12:33:32 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 07 Feb 2006 07:33:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060207123344.D45C4D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071231 SWODY1 SPC AC 071230 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 AM CST TUE FEB 07 2006 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PLAINS TO ATLANTIC COAST... TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW...A BROAD CYCLONIC BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY...AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. A SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD IMPULSE HAS PROGRESSED THROUGH ALL BUT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ACCELERATES ACROSS THE MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND AT LEAST A WEAK RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THIS REGION WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLDER NORTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES...AND WITH LITTLE OR NO FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL INHIBITION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ...PACIFIC COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES... A CLOSED LOW HAS BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...OVER THE LOWER LATITUDE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC/MEXICAN PLATEAU. AS THIS OCCURS...BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. DRY...GENERALLY STABLE...SUBSIDENT REGIME WILL MINIMIZE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ..KERR.. 02/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 7 15:46:04 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 07 Feb 2006 10:46:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060207154616.18561D46A9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071544 SWODY1 SPC AC 071542 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0942 AM CST TUE FEB 07 2006 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A REX BLOCK OVER THE PAC COAST...AND A BROAD DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. A NARROW BELT OF MOISTURE AND VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY COINCIDES WITH THE FRONT...BUT REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. ..THOMPSON.. 02/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 7 20:27:09 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 07 Feb 2006 15:27:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060207202729.A6944D46A9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071948 SWODY1 SPC AC 071946 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0146 PM CST TUE FEB 07 2006 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL... BROAD BAND OF CLOUDINESS AND SHALLOW CONVECTION CONTINUES ITS SWD ADVANCE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT. ..DARROW.. 02/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 8 00:56:40 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 07 Feb 2006 19:56:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060208005651.597E1D4948@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080054 SWODY1 SPC AC 080052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CST TUE FEB 07 2006 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..DIAL.. 02/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 8 04:53:59 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 07 Feb 2006 23:53:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060208045409.6206FD5227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080452 SWODY1 SPC AC 080450 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 PM CST TUE FEB 07 2006 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TN VALLEY AREA... A STRONG VORT MAX AND ATTENDANT MID LEVEL JET WILL MOVE SSEWD AND INTO THE TN VALLEY AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A POCKET OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET WILL SPREAD INTO THE TN VALLEY AROUND THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...A LARGE CP AIRMASS HAS SPREAD OVER THIS REGION WITH OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE GULF RESULTING IN A COOL...DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY WITHIN THE ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEWD MOVING UPPER JET. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHALLOW CONVECTION. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. ..DIAL.. 02/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 8 12:52:58 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 08 Feb 2006 07:52:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060208125308.E3088D43D1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081250 SWODY1 SPC AC 081249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CST WED FEB 08 2006 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PLAINS INTO ATLANTIC COAST STATES... A BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME PERSISTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES... WITH ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THIS IMPULSE WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD INTO/THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO/ TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD/DRY AIR...WHICH WILL FURTHER STABILIZE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES. STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK ACCOMPANYING UPPER SYSTEM LIKELY WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR WEAK/LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THROUGH PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS TOO SMALL TO DELINEATE A 10% COVERAGE LINE...BUT SOME MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. POTENTIAL SHOULD END BY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...PACIFIC COAST STATES/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN CUT-OFF FROM PRIMARY BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES...SOUTH OF UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES. IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MAY SUPPORT EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS BAJA INTO PARTS OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE U.S. BORDER THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ..KERR.. 02/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 8 16:05:18 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 08 Feb 2006 11:05:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060208160527.467C6D464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081600 SWODY1 SPC AC 081558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0958 AM CST WED FEB 08 2006 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE PAC COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY AND ERN STATES. ONE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY TONIGHT...WHILE ANOTHER WAVE DIGS SEWD FROM SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG ASCENT MAY ALLOW SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO WRN TN/KY IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AREA. OTHERWISE...THE SRN STREAM LOW W OF BAJA SHOULD REMAIN TOO FAR SW TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN SRN AZ/NM. ..THOMPSON.. 02/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 8 19:52:46 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 08 Feb 2006 14:52:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060208195255.4820ED46C8@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081951 SWODY1 SPC AC 081949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 PM CST WED FEB 08 2006 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF RAIN/SNOW -- POSSIBLY INCLUDING SHALLOW CONVECTION -- WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF VORT MAX NOW CROSSING SERN MO. ANY INSTABILITY HOWEVER WILL REMAIN WITHIN A SHALLOW/LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC LAYER -- THUS UNSUPPORTIVE OF DEEPER/LIGHTNING-PRODUCING CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS STABLE AIRMASS PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. ..GOSS.. 02/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 9 00:48:18 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 08 Feb 2006 19:48:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060209004825.B2161D43D1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090046 SWODY1 SPC AC 090044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CST WED FEB 08 2006 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES MEAN TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS AND REX PATTERN OVER W COAST...INCLUDING CUT-OFF LOW FCST TO MOVE EWD OVER N-CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA TONIGHT. CONTINENTAL SFC HIGH THAT COVERS MUCH OF CONUS E OF ROCKIES BRIDGES SFC COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS AND SEWD OVER TN VALLEY. UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES MOST OF WRN STATES. THESE FEATURES WILL PROMOTE DRY AND/OR STABLE AIR MASS UNSUITABLE FOR TSTMS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. ..EDWARDS.. 02/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 9 05:15:06 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 09 Feb 2006 00:15:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060209051513.BE9B7D46C8@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090513 SWODY1 SPC AC 090511 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 PM CST WED FEB 08 2006 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 70 SSW SJT SJT SEP CRS 50 SSE CRS CLL 45 WNW VCT LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BASIC MID/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN RIDGE OVER W COAST AND ERN STATES TROUGH. HOWEVER...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DETAILS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN THUNDER PROBABILITIES LATE...COMPARED TO PROHIBITIVELY DRY/STABLE AIR MASS NOW OVER CONUS. STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SASK -- WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD UPPER MS VALLEY...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS FROM WRN GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...MID/UPPER CYCLONE -- NOW CUT OFF OVER BAJA SPUR AMIDST PREVAILING REX PATTERN -- IS FCST TO ACCELERATE EWD FROM MEAN RIDGE POSITION. THIS FEATURE WILL LOSE SOME AMPLITUDE...BECOMING POSITIVELY TILED AND OPEN-WAVE TROUGH...AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS NRN MEX AND FAR W TX. INTENSE SFC COLD FRONT -- ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM PERTURBATION -- WILL PLUNGE SWD ALONG FAVORED HIGH PLAINS CORRIDOR TO NEAR PERMIAN BASIN OF W TX BY 10/12Z...EXTENDING ENEWD THROUGH ARKLATEX REGION THEN NNEWD INTO SFC LOW LOCATED NEAR LS SHORELINE OF WI. LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL INTENSIFY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND ATOP STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL PRECEDE FROPA THROUGH 10/12Z. ...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL TX... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT -- MAINLY DURING LAST FEW HOURS OF PERIOD...ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED MOIST/UNSTABLE LAYER. MRGL MIDLEVEL BUOYANCY MAY DEVELOP AS PARTIALLY MODIFIED AIR MASS ADVECTS NWWD OFF WRN GULF...FOLLOWING ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVING TRAJECTORIES INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL TX ALONG ASCENDING ISENTROPIC SURFACES. ASSOCIATED LIFT MAY RAISE PARCELS TO LFC...RESULTING IN TSTMS. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE ROOTED INVOF 850 MB -- ALONG AND W OF 35-45 KT LLJ. LACK OF MORE ROBUST MOISTURE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK MUCAPES OF LESS THAN 200 J/KG...PRECLUDE PROBABILITIES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE UNTIL AFTER END OF PERIOD. ..EDWARDS.. 02/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 9 13:03:45 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 09 Feb 2006 08:03:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060209130350.C2D52D4939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091301 SWODY1 SPC AC 091300 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 AM CST THU FEB 09 2006 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ELP CNM BGS ABI 35 SSE FTW 45 NNE CLL 50 S CLL 15 SSE SAT 55 ESE DRT 10 SSE DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BLOCK PERSISTS IN UPPER FLOW NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST...WITH SPLIT BELTS OF POLAR WESTERLIES MERGING INTO BROAD DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SERIES OF COLD INTRUSIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WITHIN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME HAVE STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT REINFORCING INTRUSION OF COLD AIR THROUGH THE PLAINS IS LIKELY LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALREADY DIGGING IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES TODAY...AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO PROGRESS TOWARD NORTHERN PACIFIC COASTAL UPPER RIDGE AXIS...SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE EAST OF BAJA. MODELS SUGGEST LATTER FEATURE WILL PROGRESS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS BIG BEND BY 12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED AND MERGING INTO STRONGER FLOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. ...TEXAS... DRY/STABLE SOUNDINGS ARE CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN MORNING RAOB DATA ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING WILL OCCUR BY LATE TONIGHT. AT LOWER LEVELS...THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO INLAND ADVECTION OF MOISTENING WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER. AT THE SAME TIME...INFLUX OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE PROFILES FROM TOP DOWN. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST INCREASING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL TEXAS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT NEAR CORE OF WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM CIRCULATION COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND THE BIG BEND REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THIS FORCING SPREADS EASTWARD INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...AND AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE THREAT. ..KERR.. 02/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 9 16:24:10 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 09 Feb 2006 11:24:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060209162414.EE626D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091621 SWODY1 SPC AC 091619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 AM CST THU FEB 09 2006 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 55 NE DUG 20 NE INK 50 WSW MWL 30 SE DAL 45 SE CRS 40 SSW UTS 20 NNE VCT 20 NNW NIR 65 NW LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SERN STATES WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY WHILE AN UPSTREAM WAVE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AMPLIFIES SSEWD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A RIDGE IS MAINTAINED ALONG THE PAC COAST. IN THE SRN STREAM...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY N OF E TODAY TOWARD SE AZ/SW NM...AND THEN MORE EWD TOWARD SW TX TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED INVOF THE US/MEXICO BORDER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASCENT E/NE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW COULD ALLOW MID LEVEL CONVECTION IN NW MEXICO TO SPREAD INTO EXTREME SE AZ/SW NM THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...A WAA REGIME WILL STRENGTHEN OVER TX AS THE NW MEXICO TROUGH EJECTS EWD...WHILE A MODIFYING CP AIR MASS RETURNS NWD FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY 10/06-12Z ACROSS CENTRAL TX. ..THOMPSON.. 02/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 9 19:48:47 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 09 Feb 2006 14:48:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060209194853.C5A11D46A7@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091946 SWODY1 SPC AC 091944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CST THU FEB 09 2006 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 55 NE DUG 55 ENE HOB 70 S CDS 30 SE DAL 45 SE CRS 40 SSW UTS 20 NNE VCT 20 NNW NIR 65 NW LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN ROCKIES TO SWRN/CNTRL TX... CLOSED LOW OVER NWRN SONORA IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH... PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM...AND THEN TRANSLATE EWD TOWARD THE TX HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. THOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IS LIMITED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/DESERT SW...ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING OF THE MID- TROPOSPHERE... SUPPORTING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED TSTMS. THE SAME PLUME OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL ADVECT DOWNSTREAM INTO SWRN/CNTRL TX LATER TONIGHT. CONCURRENTLY...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO GRADUAL LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS...ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN OF A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR BANDS OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN/CNTRL TX AFTER 06Z WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER CNTRL TX. ..RACY.. 02/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 10 00:55:27 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 09 Feb 2006 19:55:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060210005531.42DD4D465B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100052 SWODY1 SPC AC 100051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CST THU FEB 09 2006 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW TUS 45 SW SVC 45 NNE HOB 40 WSW GYI 40 S PRX 20 ESE LFK 20 E HOU 20 SW LBX 35 NE CRP 15 WNW LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX/SRN NM/SRN AZ... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ENTERING NRN MEXICO ATTM. A DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL JET MAX IS EVIDENT ON THE SRN SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH WILL PUNCH EWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL TX TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE GRADUALLY ERODING A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF TX. AS A RESULT...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF TX TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW...WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL AID THE DEVELOPING STORMS AND AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE BUT VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY STORM ACTIVITY RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH DAYBREAK. ..BROYLES.. 02/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 10 05:59:12 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2006 00:59:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060210055915.5B5BBD469C@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100556 SWODY1 SPC AC 100555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CST THU FEB 09 2006 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SE ELP BGS MWL FTW DAL 40 SE PRX HOT LIT MEM MSL HSV RMG ATL MCN VLD 50 WSW CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN IS FCST TO REINFORCE PERSISTENT MEAN TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS. STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SMALL EMBEDDED CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF ND/MN BORDER -- IS FCST TO DIG GENERALLY SSEWD WITH CYCLONE CENTER BETWEEN NERN MO AND CENTRAL IL BY END OF PERIOD. AS ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR OVER SRN PLAINS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...UPPER LOW NOW OVER NWRN MEX WILL OPEN...DEAMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS NERN MEX AND SRN TX EARLY IN PERIOD. ASSOCIATED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THEN WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NWRN GULF OVERNIGHT...LOSING MOST OF ITS DEFINITION AMIDST TIGHTENING HEIGHT/FLOW GRADIENTS THAT WILL RESULT FROM MID/UPPER MS VALLEY CYCLONE. STRONG SFC COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS AND WRN MO -- IS FCST TO SWEEP SEWD TOWARD TX COAST EARLY IN PERIOD. CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THIS FRONT OVER NE TX IN RESPONSE TO APCHG SRN STREAM TROUGH...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING EWD TO VICINITY ERN AL/SWRN GA BY 11/12Z. MEANWHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS NWRN AND N-CENTRAL GULF. ...TX COASTAL PLAIN... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED BY 10/18Z OVER MID/UPPER TX COASTAL AREA...AN EWD SHIFT/EXTENSION OF ELEVATED THUNDER REGIME NOW EVIDENT OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA. WAA AND WEAK MIDLEVEL DPVA...AMIDST CONTINUING MOIST ADVECTION AND WEAK CINH...SHOULD LEAD TO MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG OVER PORTIONS TX COASTAL PLAIN BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE...WITH 0-6 KM SHEARS 60-70 KT INDICATED IN FCST SOUNDINGS. MAIN CONCERN ATTM -- WHICH IS PRECLUDING A CATEGORICAL SEVERE RISK -- IS LACK OF MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION...A CONDITION ASSOCIATED BOTH WITH PARTLY MODIFIED RETURN AIR MASS AND LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS/PRECIP REINFORCING NEAR-SFC STABILITY FOR MUCH OF DAY. INCOMPLETE STAGE OF MARINE AIR MASS MODIFICATION REMAINS EVIDENT IN CURRENT W GULF SFC OBS OF 50S F DEW POINTS...AND IN CHARACTER OF MARINE STRATOCU FIELD APPARENT IN LAST VIS IMAGERY AND CURRENT IR. CLOUD BREAKS AND POCKETS OF SUSTAINED INSOLATION MAY LEAD TO SFC-BASED BUOYANCY AND AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE...HOWEVER...AND AN UPGRADE MAY BE NECESSARY ONCE INFLUENCING MESOSCALE CLOUD/PRECIP PATTERNS BECOME MORE CERTAIN. ...LA TO FL PANHANDLE... EXPECT BLEND OF PREFRONTAL/CLUSTERED CONVECTIVE REGIME AND FRONTALLY FORCED LINE TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS LA WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. WEAK DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY...AND LINEAR MODE SHOULD DOMINATE GIVEN PROGGED GEOMETRY OF DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES COMPARED TO ALIGNMENT OF MAIN FORCING BOUNDARY. STILL...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS IN FCST WIND PROFILES CAUSE SOME CONCERN FOR TORNADOES FROM EITHER BOW ECHO CIRCULATIONS OR PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLS. PROBABILITY WOULD JUMP INTO CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK CRITERIA GIVEN JUST SLGTLY MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED BUOYANCY NEAR COAST THAN PRESENTLY INDICATED. UPGRADE MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME PORTION OF CENTRAL/SRN GULF COAST AS WELL...PARTICULARLY AL COAST AND WRN FL PANHANDLE...IF NARROW SLIVER OF MOST STRONGLY MODIFIED MARINE AIR REACHES COAST DURING 11/06Z-11/12Z TIME FRAME. ..EDWARDS.. 02/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 10 12:29:06 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2006 07:29:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060210122910.A58BED4725@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101227 SWODY1 SPC AC 101225 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0625 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2006 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SE ELP BGS 35 ENE ABI 35 E DAL 25 WNW ELD 35 W UOX HSV RMG 30 ESE LGC 35 WSW ABY 15 WSW AAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND A SECOND UPPER TROUGH ROTATING SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF CO/KS/NEB. THESE SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO PHASE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...RESULTING IN RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. GULF MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED DUE TO RECENT SURGES OF COLD/DRY AIR DEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF TX INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. ...TX/LA GULF COAST TO FL PANHANDLE... NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF EAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE IS HELPING TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION...LEADING TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX. ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY/NIGHT... SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF AR/LA/MS/AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW ZONE OF 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST FROM THE CRP AREA INTO SOUTHERN LA THROUGH THE DAY. MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAY LIMIT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL THREAT. THUS WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. ..HART.. 02/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 10 16:23:08 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2006 11:23:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060210162310.C0042D465B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101620 SWODY1 SPC AC 101618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2006 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE CRP 35 SSW JCT 35 NNW BWD 35 E DAL 15 SSE LIT 35 NNE UOX 20 NW GAD 20 NE ANB 15 ESE LGC 10 SSE ABY 50 WSW CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PHASING OF SRN BRANCH S/WV NOW MOVING INTO W TX AND THE COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING SEWD THRU THE CENTRAL U.S. IS UNDERWAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW VICINITY UPPER TX COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW THEN GRADUALLY DEEPENING AS IT MOVES ENEWD ACROSS GULF STATES TONIGHT. ONGOING MOISTURE RETURN FROM WESTERN GULF HAS SPREAD LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ONSHORE TX COAST THIS AM. AS PRESSURE FALLS SPREAD EWD ACROSS GULF STATES SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND GIVEN LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THAT WILL LIMIT AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. MLCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP IN GULF COASTAL AREAS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON SERN TX...PARTICULARLY COASTAL AREAS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE GIVEN THE MINIMAL INSTABILITY. OVERNIGHT THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS CENTRAL GULF COAST AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SRN LA/SRN MS AND AL. STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE COASTAL AREAS MAINTAINING A POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER RISK OF SEVERE SHOULD REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. ..HALES.. 02/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 10 19:56:47 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2006 14:56:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060210195649.A600DD464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101955 SWODY1 SPC AC 101953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2006 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E CRP 10 N NIR 30 ESE BAZ 45 SSE CRS 15 W SHV 35 SSW GLH 35 NNE MEI 30 E TOI 15 S ABY 50 WSW CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF COAST... BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN WITH LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ON THE UPPER TX COAST AND 100+ NM S OF LA AT MID-AFTN. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCELERATE LATER TODAY AS THE UPSTREAM PLAINS TROUGH DIGS SWD...ADVECTING THE MODIFIED CP AIR MASS FURTHER NWD TO ALONG A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. DEVELOPING WARM CONVEYOR BELT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING ELEVATED STORMS ALL DAY ACROSS ERN TX. STRONGER UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN ATTEMPTING TO ROOT INTO THE INCREASING UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST WHERE MLCAPES WERE 250-500 J/KG. THE CAP HAS BEEN HOLDING STRONG...THOUGH...AND ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING/MOISTENING TO ERASE CINH SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED TSTMS. VERTICAL/LOW-LEVEL SHEARS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. BUT... PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK BUOYANCY. LATER TONIGHT...A WEAK LOW...NOW ANALYZED OVER THE MIDDLE TX COAST...WILL TRANSLATE/DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TRACK OF THE LOW SHOULD BE RIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST...OR SLIGHTLY INLAND. SO...DESPITE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS/TORNADOES...WEAKER LAPSE RATES /COMPARED TO UPSTREAM OVER TX/ AND MINIMAL BUOYANCY WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. A STRONGER STORM MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST AND/OR TORNADO LATER TONIGHT AS FAR EAST AS COASTAL LA/MS/AL/FL...BUT THREATS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO MAINTAIN ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..RACY.. 02/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 11 00:59:16 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2006 19:59:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060211005917.EB4CCD43D9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110057 SWODY1 SPC AC 110055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2006 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE 45 NNE MFE 50 ENE CRP 20 SW LCH ESF 40 NW JAN 30 SW 0A8 30 S AUO 25 SW ABY 50 SSE TLH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FEATURES W COAST RIDGE AND MEAN TROUGH DOMINATING CENTRAL/ERN CONUS FLOW FIELDS. PRIMARY FEATURE WILL REMAIN LARGE CYCLONE ALOFT -- CENTER OF WHICH NOW IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF SUX. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SSEWD ALONG AND JUST E OF MO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...TOWARD SRN IA AND NRN MO. AS THIS OCCURS...VORTICITY PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH POSITIVELY TILTED SRN STREAM TROUGH OVER NERN MEX AND S-CENTRAL TX WILL ELONGATE ENE-WSW. NRN PORTION OF LATTER PERTURBATION WILL MOVE EWD ALONG UPPER TX/LA COAST AND WEAKEN. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER SE TX IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS SRN AL OVERNIGHT. INTENSE COLD FRONT...EXTENDING SWWD FROM LOW...WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS LA AND MUCH OF NWRN GULF. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MARINE/WARM FRONT FROM NEAR S-CENTRAL LA COAST SEWD TO VICINITY BUOY 42003...OR ABOUT 225 NM SSW AAF. THIS BOUNDARY DIFFUSELY DEMARCATES SOME IMMATURELY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR CHARACTERIZING FL AND ERN GULF FROM SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST MARINE TRANSFORMATION THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER S-CENTRAL/WRN GULF. ...GULF COASTAL PLAIN... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EVIDENT IN FRONTALLY FORCED LINE FROM SRN MS SWWD TO JUST OFFSHORE MID/UPPER TX COAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD/SEWD OVER GULF AND REMAINDER LA/MS COASTAL REGION WITH INTERMITTENT/MRGL SEVERE POTENTIAL. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 123 FOR NOWCAST DETAILS. OVERNIGHT POTENTIAL FOR NEARLY SFC-BASED CONVECTION...AND RELATED PROBABILITIES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE...STRONGLY DEPENDS ON POSITION OF MARINE FRONT RELATIVE TO COAST. EVEN THEN...AIR MASS TO ITS SW WILL NOT BE FULLY ADJUSTED TO STATE OF OPEN-GULF/AIR-SEA EQUILIBRIUM...LEAVING SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S F OVER COASTAL WATERS PASSED BY THIS FRONT. WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES -- EVIDENT IN LIX/LCH RAOBS AT 00Z -- WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO LIMITED BUOYANCY. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE PARCELS MAY REACH SFC IN AIR MASS SW OF MARINE FRONT...HOWEVER...AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT ROTATION IN ANY DISCRETE CELLS OR LEWP/BOW CONFIGURATIONS THAT CAN DEVELOP. THEREFORE...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUST OR ROGUE TORNADO NEAR COAST CANNOT BE CATEGORICALLY ELIMINATED. WILL MAINTAIN MRGL SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM WITHOUT CATEGORICAL AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 02/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 11 05:11:17 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 00:11:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060211051118.7AD70D464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110509 SWODY1 SPC AC 110508 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2006 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW PNS 25 SSE TOI VDI 40 SE CHS ...CONT... 50 NNE MLB 55 WSW PBI 40 ESE MTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY MEAN TROUGH INVOF MS VALLEY AND HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER W COAST STATES. PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW -- EVIDENT ATTM IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY NEAR OMA. THIS LOW SHOULD REDEVELOP EWD TOWARD OH BY 12/00Z...WHILE CURRENT CENTER BECOMES PART OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD TOWARD WRN TN. ASSOCIATED STRONG SFC COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED SRN AL SWWD ACROSS NWRN GULF ATTM -- IS FCST TO SWEEP SEWD ACROSS MOST OF GULF...FL...GA AND CAROLINAS THROUGH PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR IN TUNE WITH VIGOROUS E COAST CYCLOGENESIS...WITH DEEP SFC LOW PROGGED E OF DELMARVA AND S OF LONG ISLAND BY END OF PERIOD. MARINE WARM FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM NEAR MS RIVER MOUTH SEWD PAST BUOY 42003 -- SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY OFFSHORE BUT MAY BRUSH COASTAL AREAS OF FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN PERIOD. ...COASTAL WRN/CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE... BAND OF TSTMS NOW EVIDENT INVOF COLD FRONT -- FROM SRN AL ACROSS SERN LA -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING E ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH MORNING. WITH MEAN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES BARELY GREATER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC...BUOYANCY WILL BE MARGINAL AND ELEVATED OVER MOST OF REGION...PRECLUDING SEVERE PROBABILITIES EXCEPT ALONG SMALL PART OF FL PANHANDLE COAST BEFORE ABOUT 11/18Z. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...EXPECT STRONG WAA ATOP RELATIVELY STABLE NEAR SFC LAYER N OF MARINE FRONT...AND DECREASING SLOPE/DEPTH OF FRONTAL SFC. THIS MAY RESULT IN EFFECTIVE PARCELS ROOTING CLOSE TO GROUND LEVEL...CAUSING MARGINAL PROBABILITY FOR TORNADO OR DAMAGING GUST AMIDST ENVIRONMENT OF IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 02/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 11 12:48:48 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 07:48:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060211124851.20E30D468B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111246 SWODY1 SPC AC 111245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW PFN 15 WSW MGR 35 NNE SAV 60 E CHS ...CONT... 65 ESE DAB 20 NW AGR 50 SW SRQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN STATES TODAY...WHILE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ROTATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM GA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED IN WARM SECTOR OF LOW ACROSS PARTS OF GA/FL/SC...WITH MUCAPE VALUES AOB 250 J/KG. HOWEVER...STRONG LIFT NEAR LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE VERY STRONG AS 100KT+ MID LEVEL JET ROTATES ACROSS REGION...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY. ..HART.. 02/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 11 16:16:21 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 11:16:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060211161622.57B6AD46AA@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111610 SWODY1 SPC AC 111609 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1009 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE DAB 20 NW AGR 50 SW SRQ ...CONT... 35 NNW PIE 20 ESE OCF 25 NNE DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... THE BROAD ZONE OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THRU SRN GA AND FL PANHANDLE HAS EVOLVED INTO MOSTLY STRATIFORM TYPE OVER LAND WITH ANY AVAILABLE INSTABILITY NOW WELL OFFSHORE OVER GULF OF MEXICO. GOOD HEATING AND MOISTENING AHEAD OF PRECIPITATION BAND OVER FL PENINSULA WILL DEVELOP SOME WEAK INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT MLCAPES MUCH ABOVE ZERO THUS ANY THUNDER THAN CAN DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL PENINSULA SHOULD BE LIMITED IN AREA AND INTENSITY. EVEN WITH THE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES PROVIDED BY THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING THRU THE ERN U.S. SEVERE STORMS NOT EXPECTED. ..HALES.. 02/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 11 19:44:04 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 14:44:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060211194405.9006ED4925@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111942 SWODY1 SPC AC 111940 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL FL... A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS CNTRL FL AT MID-AFTN. THE STRONGEST REFLECTIVITY WAS CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE FL WCOAST WWD INTO THE ERN GULF BASIN WHERE BUOYANCY WAS THE STRONGEST. 16Z XMR SOUNDING AND 17-18Z AIRCRAFT ASCENTS FROM KMCO...KRSW AND KMIA SUGGEST THE MID-TROPOSPHERE WAS RATHER WARM /H5 TEMPERATURES MINUS 10-12 DEGREES C/ RESULTING IN WEAK LAPSE RATES. MOREOVER...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED AND OVERALL MASS CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL. THUS...IT APPEARS THE TSTM THREAT IS MINIMAL AND DOES NOT JUSTIFY A 10 PERCENT GENERAL TSTM OUTLOOK. NONETHELESS...THE FORCED LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. ..RACY.. 02/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 12 00:59:36 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 19:59:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060212005938.61BFBD468B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120057 SWODY1 SPC AC 120055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A LARGE ERN US TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH A WIDE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING ENEWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SEWD PROGRESSION ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN FL THIS EVENING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE WEST COAST SUGGESTING MOST OF THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 02/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 12 05:36:49 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 12 Feb 2006 00:36:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060212053650.C38F0D45FF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120534 SWODY1 SPC AC 120533 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A LARGE CNTRL AND ERN US TROUGH WILL REINFORCE SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS TODAY. AS A RESULT...NORTH TO NELY FLOW IN THE SRN STATES WILL PREVENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RETURNING NWD. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY COOL SFC TEMPS AND VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL MAKE CONVECTION UNLIKELY THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 02/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 12 12:48:26 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 12 Feb 2006 07:48:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060212124827.1EF5BD45A3@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121246 SWODY1 SPC AC 121244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2006 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES TODAY...WITH SERIES OF VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGHS PASSING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT IN BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MD INTO CT. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...NO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY. ..HART.. 02/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 12 16:19:22 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 12 Feb 2006 11:19:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060212161925.31B7FD4936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121617 SWODY1 SPC AC 121615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1015 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2006 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... INTENSE NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST. EARLIER EMBEDDED CONVECTION/ISOLATED LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE SNOW BANDS FROM NJ-CT HAS ENDED. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE SOME WEAK CAPE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER SHIFTING NEWD UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED LIGHTNING WITH ANY THREAT ENDING BY MID AFTERNOON. ..HALES.. 02/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 12 19:47:15 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 12 Feb 2006 14:47:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060212194716.C1685D4946@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121945 SWODY1 SPC AC 121943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2006 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..RACY.. 02/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 13 00:45:42 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 12 Feb 2006 19:45:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060213004543.6DCE0D46C5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130043 SWODY1 SPC AC 130042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2006 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN US WILL KEEP NWLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...COOL AND DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. EAST OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...NLY SFC WINDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL SUPPRESS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN MAKING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY. ..BROYLES.. 02/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 13 05:54:19 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 13 Feb 2006 00:54:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060213055420.F3D2FD46C5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130552 SWODY1 SPC AC 130550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2006 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS AS AN EAST COAST TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE SRN US AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NCNTRL US. IN RESPONSE TO THE SFC HIGH...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS...CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 02/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 13 12:40:24 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 13 Feb 2006 07:40:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060213124025.4ECE9D45BD@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131238 SWODY1 SPC AC 131236 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 AM CST MON FEB 13 2006 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NATION TODAY. ..HART.. 02/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 13 15:39:09 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 13 Feb 2006 10:39:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060213153910.C3A75D45A3@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131536 SWODY1 SPC AC 131535 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0935 AM CST MON FEB 13 2006 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER ALL OF CONUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ..HALES.. 02/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 13 19:08:40 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 13 Feb 2006 14:08:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060213190851.3E06CD45BD@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131906 SWODY1 SPC AC 131905 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 PM CST MON FEB 13 2006 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...EAST OF ROCKIES... AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY FROM SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND FLOW DEAMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EAST...SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER IN ITS WAKE WILL BE TOO SLOW TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGGING TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. ...WEST OF ROCKIES... A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. HOWEVER...COLD/DRY LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE CASCADES... AND LACK OF ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WEST...WILL MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ..KERR.. 02/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 14 00:51:30 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 13 Feb 2006 19:51:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060214005133.8D0B4D468B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140049 SWODY1 SPC AC 140047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST MON FEB 13 2006 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WILL BECOME ZONAL TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS SWD INTO THE WRN US. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN US WILL DRIFT EWD AS A TROUGH ORGANIZES IN THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NWD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES LATE TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE SCNTRL US IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. THIS COMBINED WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS WILL PROHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 02/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 14 05:52:41 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 14 Feb 2006 00:52:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060214055242.34032D45A3@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140550 SWODY1 SPC AC 140548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CST MON FEB 13 2006 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLM 30 ESE AST 35 SW EUG 70 SSW EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A BROAD BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER WRN CANADA WILL DRIFT SWD AND AMPLIFY ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST STATES. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAINFALL. NAM/NAMKF/GFS/SREF FORECASTS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...SPREADING PRECIPITATION SWD ACROSS WRN WA...WRN ORE AND NRN CA. A COLD POCKET AT MID-LEVELS WILL BRING STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS NRN CA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF WA...ORE AND NRN CA. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. ..BROYLES.. 02/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 14 12:57:56 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 14 Feb 2006 07:57:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060214125757.50F09D4653@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141256 SWODY1 SPC AC 141254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2006 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLM 30 ESE AST 35 SW EUG 70 SSW EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO FAST ZONAL FLOW TODAY...WITH MAIN UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS...PRECLUDING ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS EVERYWHERE BUT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ...WA/ORE... ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG AND OFF THE WA/ORE COAST. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THIS REGION. OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE THREAT. ..HART.. 02/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 14 16:08:24 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 14 Feb 2006 11:08:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060214160825.0D2FDD45BC@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141605 SWODY1 SPC AC 141604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1004 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2006 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... COLD TROUGH DROPPING SWD THRU PAC NW. ONSHORE COMPONENT HAS WEAKENED ALONG WA/OR COAST OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY BECOMING OFFSHORE. EVEN WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...EXPECT ONLY WEAK LOW TOPPED CONVECTION W OF CASCADES. ANY ASSOCIATED LIGHTNING NOW EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED...THUS EARLIER GENERAL THUNDER AREA HAS BEEN DROPPED. ..HALES.. 02/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 14 19:00:16 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 14 Feb 2006 14:00:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060214190017.7D66DD4653@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141858 SWODY1 SPC AC 141856 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2006 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE/BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DROPPING SWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S./ROCKIES THIS PERIOD. EMBEDDED SHORTER-WAVELENGTH TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED/STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE -- MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DRY/STABLE AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS PRECLUDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ..GOSS.. 02/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 15 00:51:39 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 14 Feb 2006 19:51:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060215005139.A69DFD45BD@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150049 SWODY1 SPC AC 150047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2006 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WRN STATES TONIGHT. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND COLD AIR ALOFT IN THE CORE OF THE TROUGH MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF WA...ORE AND NRN CA. HOWEVER...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A 10 % PROBABILITY ATTM. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 02/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 15 05:53:49 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 00:53:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060215055350.18490D46A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150551 SWODY1 SPC AC 150550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2006 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC COASTAL STATES WILL ROTATE AND SLIDE EWD INTO THE ROCKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A STRONG 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INCREASE MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE REGION...SFC DEWPOINTS MAY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S F IN THE OH VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPED WARM SECTOR...FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE SFC TROUGH CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS THE STRONGER WESTERLIES SHIFT SWD ACROSS THE REGION...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. ..BROYLES.. 02/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 15 07:11:23 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 02:11:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060215071123.82638D45BD@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150709 SWODY1 SPC AC 150708 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED LAST SENTENCE AND HEADLINE ABOVE A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC COASTAL STATES WILL ROTATE AND SLIDE EWD INTO THE ROCKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A STRONG 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INCREASE MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE REGION...SFC DEWPOINTS MAY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S F IN THE OH VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPED WARM SECTOR...FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE SFC TROUGH CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS THE STRONGER WESTERLIES SHIFT SWD ACROSS THE REGION...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ..BROYLES.. 02/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 15 13:03:09 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 08:03:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060215130309.ACBE1D464E@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151300 SWODY1 SPC AC 151259 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID MS VALLEY... FAST ZONAL FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS THE UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF CO/KS/OK IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN WARM SECTOR OF LOW WILL HELP TRANSPORT MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ACROSS PARTS OF IL/MO/IND...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. ...CO/UT/WY... ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ALSO OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES PARTS OF WY/UT/CO. RAPIDLY COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG ASCENT WILL AID THREAT. ..HART.. 02/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 15 16:06:28 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 11:06:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060215160632.3FF7BD464E@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151603 SWODY1 SPC AC 151601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1001 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... STRONG POLAR JET EXTENDS FROM CA ENEWD THRU GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. AN EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS IS MOVING QUICKLY IN THE STRONG FLOW AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN REGION CROSSES CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ALONG CENTRAL KS/OK BORDER WILL FILL AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY TO THE E. STRONGER SURFACE LOW SRN UT TRACKS TO LEE OF CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER TONIGHT. FRONTAL ZONE FROM OHIO VALLEY THRU THE PLAINS SURFACE LOW WILL SHOW LITTLE OVERALL SWD MOVEMENT AS PRESSURES FALL CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH. MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE IS RAPIDLY RETURNING NWD FROM ERN TX/LA INTO LOWER MO VALLEY AND THIS PROCESS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU FORECAST PERIOD. COMBINATION OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE AND MOISTURE INCREASE WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT TONIGHT PORTIONS OF LOWER MO AND MID MS VALLEYS. WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 7C/KM AND POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CAPES AOA 500 J/KG A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SMALL HAIL THREAT. ..HALES.. 02/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 15 19:52:22 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 14:52:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060215195222.BDB43D4609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151950 SWODY1 SPC AC 151949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... RETURN FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ONGOING IN WAKE OF RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE /CENTER OF WHICH IS NOW SHIFTING EAST OF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS/. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE STILL ONLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S...BUT SLOW MODIFICATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TONGUE OF MID 50S+ SURFACE DEW POINTS HAS ADVECTED INLAND THROUGH MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS. THOUGH SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...THIS SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. ...LOWER OHIO VALLEY... WARMING LOW/MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAP MOISTURE RETURN EAST OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WILL REMAIN WEAKER THROUGH PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS WEAKENING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELEVATED LEADING EDGE OF BETTER MOISTURE RETURN ALREADY APPEARS TO HAVE SPREAD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... WHERE WEAK/SHALLOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT PERSISTS/DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS POSSIBLE...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THE 16/03-06Z TIME FRAME. ...LOWER MISSOURI/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO AWAIT APPROACH OF VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS STILL PROGRESSING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT...IN EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK DEVELOPING EAST OF TROUGH AXIS...IS PROGGED INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH SEEM MOST LIKELY ABOVE SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION...NEAR STRONGER THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...VICINITY OF THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LARGER CAPE AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HAIL A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE WARM FRONT...BUT CAPPING SEEMS LIKELY TO HOLD ACROSS THIS REGION UNTIL AFTER 16/12Z. ..KERR.. 02/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 00:59:10 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 19:59:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060216005910.849FED45BC@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160057 SWODY1 SPC AC 160055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MIDWEST... DEEP LAYER FRONTAL ZONE WAS ALIGNED WITH EXTENSIVE BELT OF STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. FRONTAL WAVE CYCLONE HAS ATTEMPTED TO FORM ALONG THIS FRONT OVER SWRN MO IN RESPONSE TO A DEAMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD TOWARD THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY. A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STRONG LEE-SIDE SURFACE CYCLONE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT OVER SWRN KS BY THURSDAY MORNING. SLOPED/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT BENEATH LARGE SCALE JET COUPLING ONGOING FROM MO TO IND. WHILE AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY TOO DRY AND STABLE TO SUPPORT TSTMS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FRONTAL SURFACE...COUPLED WITH CONTINUING LARGE SCALE BACKGROUND ASCENT...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME INHIBITION AND RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. DESPITE STRONG SHEAR WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE...LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE THE THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 02/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 05:50:23 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 00:50:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060216055023.DD695D464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160548 SWODY1 SPC AC 160547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... A POSITIVE TILT LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN PACIFIC...NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN U.S...DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. BAND OF VERY FAST WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL STRETCH FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES/APPALACHIANS...BETWEEN THE POSITIVE TILT WRN TROUGH AND A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FAST FLOW REGIME...AND CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL ACCELERATE ENEWD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH A BAND OF 100-110KT MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADING FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES TO WRN PA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX WILL INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS. RAPID TRANSLATION OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO QUICKLY REFORM EWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...AND THEN TRACK TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH LATE TODAY WHILE DEEPENING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE AREA...A STRONG SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD SEWD FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ...AR/SERN MO TO OH VALLEY... EXPANDING LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS WAS DEPICTED IN SURFACE OBS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM ERN TX/OK TO SRN MO LATE TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE TRANSPORTED NWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY BY 12Z...AND THEN EWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE MORNING...DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED STORMS DUE TO EML INVERSION EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY SUFFICIENT TO ELIMINATE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MO...WRN IL...AND NRN AR BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE ALSO APPEARS TO SUGGEST THAT STORM INITIATION OCCURS ON OR IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT DEVELOPS EWD/SEWD INTO THESE AREAS BY 21Z. INITIAL ACTIVITY OVER MO MAY BE UNDERCUT BY THE ADVANCING FRONT AND POSE ONLY A LIMITED WIND/HAIL THREAT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED STORM UPDRAFTS TAPPING WEAKLY TO MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS MAY EXIST INVOF SURFACE LOW AND FRONT ACROSS IL/IND INTO EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL IN NATURE...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND FAST STORM MOTION SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. DEEPENING COLD POOL...STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION...AND MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASING TO 90-100KT...ALL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO A SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST/LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH LATE EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...FROM AR TO NRN MS...LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL JET WILL BE WEAKER THAN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THESE DEFICIENCIES MAY BE OFFSET BY GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/CAPE AND FORCED ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT. A LINEAR MCS WITH WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE EVENING BEFORE LOOSING INTENSITY AS INSTABILITY AND FORCING GRADUALLY WANE WITH EWD/SEWD EXTENT. ..CARBIN.. 02/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 12:23:15 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 07:23:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060216122315.CC085D46A9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161215 SWODY1 SPC AC 161213 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0613 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CO. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND MID MS/OH VALLEYS TODAY. UPPER SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH 110+ KNOT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX NOSING ACROSS IL/IND. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN IL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS MI TONIGHT. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS /60-80 KNOTS AT 850MB/ WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH/TN/MID MS VALLEYS...TRANSPORTING MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NORTHWARD. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHEAST AR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF IND/OH/KY/TN DURING THE EVENING. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL FAVOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN KY/TN THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER CAPE VALUES. ORIENTATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ALSO SUGGEST A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...ALONG WITH A GREATER THREAT OF SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. SQUALL LINE MAY MOVE AS FAR EAST AS EASTERN OH OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ..HART.. 02/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 16:33:31 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 11:33:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060216163332.548F3D46A9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161630 SWODY1 SPC AC 161628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OHIO MID MS AND WRN TN VALLEYS... ...OH AND MID MS/WRN TN VALLEYS... VERY STRONG...FAST MOVING S/WV TROUGH MOVING FROM CURRENT LOCATION CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT. FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL IN/IL WSWWD CENTRAL MO INTO WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE. DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE SWRN MO WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS IL THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DEEPEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT INTO SWRN ONTARIO. IN THE WAKE OF SURFACE LOW STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE SEWD THRU SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY BY TONIGHT. 850MB 50-60 KT SWLY WINDS SPREADING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS MID MS INTO LOWER OH VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THRU THE 50S. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR THE CURRENT VIGOROUS ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NRN IL. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR INDICATED ON REGIONAL VWP'S SUPPORTS ELEVATED ROTATING STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND NEAR SEVERE WINDS GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. REF MCD 146. FURTHER S AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM HAS SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MO VALLEY. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY PRECLUDE SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE COMBINATION OF STRONG FRONTAL LIFT AND LARGE SCALE UVV'S WITH S/WV TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE INITIAL SUBSTANTIAL CIN. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS AOA 60F MLCAPES WILL RANGE DOWNWARD FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG IN WARM SECTOR SRN PLAINS TO AROUND 500 J/KG INTO LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS. CIN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. INITIAL THREAT EXPECTED TO BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER THE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING 100 KT 500 MB WIND MAX SUPPORTS ROTATING STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SHORT LINES/BOWS WITH INCREASING WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS MID MS INTO OH AND WRN TN VALLEYS. GIVEN THE INTENSE WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY THRU THE EVENING HOURS EITHER EMBEDDED WITHIN OR JUST AHEAD OF THE LINES/BOWS. THUS GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP. VERY IMPRESSIVE 110KT 500MB AND 150KT PLUS 300MB WIND MAXES TRAVERSING THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE SQUALL LINE CONTINUING OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WIND DAMAGE. AMOUNT OF SEVERE OVERNIGHT IS DEPENDENT ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. IF INSTABILITY GREATER THAN NOW EXPECTED AFTERNOON OUTLOOK MAY NEED TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT SLIGHT RISK . ..HALES.. 02/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 19:56:41 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 14:56:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060216195646.4BB19D46A9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161954 SWODY1 SPC AC 161952 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS.... ...OZARK PLATEAU INTO GREAT LAKES.... WAVE SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG SHARP FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW IN AMPLITUDE. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN INDIANA...BEFORE MORE RAPID DEEPENING OCCURS AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO EAST NORTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION OF A 100+ KT 500 MB JET OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IN WAKE OF THE LOW...COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU REGION...WITH ASSOCIATED FORCING PROVIDING FOCUS FOR EVOLUTION OF A SQUALL LINE BY EARLY EVENING. INITIATION OF THIS PROCESS ALREADY APPEARS UNDERWAY FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. NARROW PLUME OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU...EXTENDS AHEAD OF FRONT...ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO A CORRIDOR OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...AS FORCING WEAKENS MID-LEVEL INHIBITION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CAPE APPEARS LIKELY TO EXCEED 500 J/KG. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALREADY VERY STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALONG STRENGTHENING PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONGER SHEAR/BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS BEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY EXIST FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT WEAKER INSTABILITY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE LOW...AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY AND STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TORNADO POTENTIAL FARTHER NORTH...INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO LIKELY ACCOMPANY SQUALL LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS IT PROGRESSES INTO/THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. SURGING ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A GREATER TENDENCY TO UNDERCUT SQUALL LINE BY THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT...AND MAY OCCUR FAIRLY RAPIDLY DURING THE 17/03-06Z TIME FRAME. AS MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. AS THIS BECOMES INCREASING CUT-OFF FROM GULF MOISTURE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH. ...LIKELY BY 12Z FRIDAY. ..KERR.. 02/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 17 13:01:29 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 17 Feb 2006 08:01:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060217130129.4E989D4609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171259 SWODY1 SPC AC 171258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2006 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING WRN NY/PA WILL REACH WRN NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY BEFORE SLOWING SOMEWHAT AS IT CONTINUES E/NE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. FAST-MOVING ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM WILL SWEEP E OFF THE NEW ENGLAND/ MID ATLANTIC CST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WEST...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY AMPLIFYING OVER ORE/NRN CA. AN IMPULSE NOW W OF KSFO SHOULD DAMPEN AS IT CONTINUES E INTO CNTRL CA LATER TODAY. AN UPSTREAM JET STREAK THAT ATTM APPEARS TO BE MOVING SWWD OFF THE WA CST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH NRN CA LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...NRN PA/CNTRL AND ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND... A NARROW LINE OF STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSED WRN NY/PA EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS BAND IS PRECEDED BY ELEVATED CONVECTIVE REMNANTS FROM YESTERDAY'S STORMS IN THE OH VLY. GIVEN ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INFLOW AHEAD OF BOTH CONVECTIVE LINES...AND WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DO NOT FORESEE INTENSIFICATION OF THE BANDS AS THEY MOVE E ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF STRONG FRONTAL UPLIFT AND MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY /BASED NEAR 700 MB PER AREA SOUNDINGS/ MAY YIELD OCCASIONAL CG LIGHTNING STRIKES...BUT PROSPECTS FOR SUSTAINED THUNDER APPEAR LOW. SURFACE-BASED INVERSION IN PREFRONTAL AIR SHOULD ALSO MINIMIZE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF STRONG GRADIENT FLOW...ALTHOUGH HIGH SURFACE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR MAINLY INVOF TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS IN ERN NY/NEW ENGLAND GIVEN 60+ KT LLJ. ...CA... FAIRLY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /950 TO 700 MB LAPSE RATES AOA 7 DEG C PER KM AND TOTAL TOTALS INDICES IN THE MID 50S/ WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN CA TODAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES INLAND. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY...SURFACE HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL CA MOUNTAINS. SOME ACTIVITY MAY ALSO FORM ALONG THE CST...AND OVER THE SACRAMENTO AND NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS. ..CORFIDI.. 02/17/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 17 15:54:31 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 17 Feb 2006 10:54:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060217155431.32AFDD4964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171553 SWODY1 SPC AC 171551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0951 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2006 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND... ...ERN NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND... NARROW LINE OF ENHANCED...MOIST CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING COLD FRONT NOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION OF ERN NY. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES NARROW AXIS OF HEATING/CLEARING EXTENDING INTO SERN NY WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN ENHANCED SURFACE WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT LEAST INTO PORTIONS OF WRN NEW ENGLAND. LARGE SWATH OF NEAR SEVERE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY NOT ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING LINE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION. HOWEVER...APPEARS SOME AUGMENTATION OF THESE LARGER SCALE WINDS WILL REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FARTHER EWD...EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE WIND GUST POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. ...NRN/CENTRAL CA... VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND OPEN CELL CU FIELD NOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST OF THE CA COAST WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED CG LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ..EVANS.. 02/17/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 17 19:10:39 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 17 Feb 2006 14:10:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060217191039.3A9D2D4977@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171909 SWODY1 SPC AC 171907 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NORTHEAST... RAPID DEEPENING OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE IS ONGOING ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND MODELS SUGGEST 1 MB+ PER HOUR FALLS OF MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AS IT MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DESPITE BEING CUT OFF FROM GULF OF MEXICO RETURN FLOW...AND LIMITED INFLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...INTENSE LIFT NEAR SURFACE FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTH OF LOW HAS SUPPORTED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY... WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. FRONT/FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MAINE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST IN ITS WAKE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO TONIGHT. ...GULF STATES... STRONG COLD INTRUSION HAS NOSED INTO WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS... BUT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS ALREADY OCCURRING ABOVE SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION ACROSS EAST TEXAS. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES BY 12Z SATURDAY. CONVECTION/CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE IN CONFLUENT REGIME NEAR LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONT...FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF STATES/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPPED BY RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE... AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE. ...CALIFORNIA... A BROAD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST OF THE OREGON COAST...AND REMAIN OFFSHORE...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE IS SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS IT PROGRESSES INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES THIS AFTERNOON. DESTABILIZATION INLAND ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS MAY ALSO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ..KERR.. 02/17/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 18 00:58:48 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 17 Feb 2006 19:58:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060218005849.1F30AD4962@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180056 SWODY1 SPC AC 180055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AS INTENSE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF ARTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTENSIFYING THROUGH TONIGHT...OVERALL PROBABILITY CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LOW TO SPECIFY AN OUTLOOK AREA DOWNWIND FROM ANY OF THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE WEST...A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WAS ROTATING THROUGH LARGER SCALE POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH OVER NRN CA AND HAS CONTRIBUTED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE BAY AREA NEWD AND SEWD ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS TO THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA. A VERY FEW CG LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LOW STATIC STABILITY AND MODEST BACKGROUND ASCENT WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS...AS WELL AS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS OVER CA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AOB 100 J/KG...AND SPARSE TSTM COVERAGE OBSERVED SO FAR...DO NOT SUPPORT CONTINUING A TSTM OUTLOOK ON THE WEST COAST. ..CARBIN.. 02/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 18 05:51:32 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 18 Feb 2006 00:51:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060218055133.B43E2D46A9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180549 SWODY1 SPC AC 180547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL COVER THE SRN HALF OF THE NATION THIS FORECAST PERIOD BETWEEN WEST COAST/NRN GREAT BASIN TROUGH AND BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE POSITIVE TILT WRN TROUGH...FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...DEEP LAYER NLY FLOW EMANATING FROM THE POLAR REGIONS MERGES WITH ZONAL AIR STREAM TO MAINTAIN STRONG MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST. ...CA COAST... CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE WITHIN TROUGH AXIS...AND NEAR MID LEVEL COLD POOL...DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS CA AND NV LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MARINE LAYER MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY GREATER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY NEAR THE CNTRL CA COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SMALL SCALE PERTURBATION ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH FROM SFO SWD. ONLY A COUPLE OF ISOLATED CG LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRED DURING A SIMILAR SCENARIO ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND A GENERAL TSTM FORECAST AREA DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED FOR TODAY. ..CARBIN.. 02/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 18 12:58:56 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 18 Feb 2006 07:58:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060218125858.CFD12D4781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181257 SWODY1 SPC AC 181256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2006 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL COVER THE SRN HALF OF THE NATION DOWNSTREAM FROM CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CA. THE CA LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER THIS PERIOD AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE. CONFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM THE WRN TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE MS/OH VLY REGION...AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN ARCTIC AIR MASS SPREADING S INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. ...CA... SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW VORT MAX WHICH ROTATED SW FROM THE WA CST AREA IN THE LAST 24 HRS HAS NOW MOVED INTO BASE OF NRN CA LOW. THE VORT SHOULD MOVE INLAND ACROSS CNTRL CA LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND LARGELY OFFSHORE. BUT COMBINATION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT...MID LEVEL COOLING AND OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED LARGELY DIURNAL STORMS...MAINLY NEAR THE CST AND IN THE KSFO/KMRY AREA. ...SERN STATES... LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF JET ENTRANCE REGION-INDUCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT THUNDER OVER THE UPPER SOUTH AND GULF CST STATES. ..CORFIDI.. 02/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 18 16:37:23 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 18 Feb 2006 11:37:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060218163726.53675D4781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181635 SWODY1 SPC AC 181634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2006 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA... VERY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ALONG THE CA COAST THIS MORNING. EXTENSIVE OPEN CELL CU FIELD AND ISOLATED CG LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH 16Z JUST OFF THE CA COAST FROM NEAR OXR NWD TO WEST OF ACV. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR WEAK INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF CA TODAY. VORT MAX WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SSEWD ACROSS CENTRAL CA...WHILE STRONG MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS SRN CA...THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL FOCUS SCATTERED LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL JET WHERE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. MODIFIED 12Z OBSERVED AND FORECAST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SBCAPE AT OR BELOW 500 J/KG...WHICH MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CORES TODAY GIVEN VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SHEAR. ..EVANS.. 02/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 18 20:04:15 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 18 Feb 2006 15:04:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060218200417.C43C1D4781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 182002 SWODY1 SPC AC 182000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2006 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PERSIST E OF THE ROCKIES THIS PERIOD...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS BENEATH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ANY THUNDER THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF CA...WHERE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...PORTIONS OF WRN CA... WEAK UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE NRN CA COAST IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME...WITH ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING NEAR AND S OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. SHOWERS CONTINUE WITHIN THE ONSHORE FLOW REGIME...THOUGH ALL CG LIGHTNING HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORT A RELATIVELY DEEP NEUTRAL TO MINIMALLY UNSTABLE LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 02/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 19 00:44:31 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 18 Feb 2006 19:44:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060219004434.E4C30D4654@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190042 SWODY1 SPC AC 190040 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2006 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL CA... CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WERE FAVORABLE FOR SPORADIC TSTMS THIS AFTN...PRIMARILY IN THE BAY AREA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER VORT MAX WEST OF KSFO THAT WILL ROTATE EWD INTO CNTRL CA LATER THIS EVE. SATL LIGHTNING DATA STILL SHOWS TSTMS OCCURRING OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS IMPULSE. WEAK BUOYANCY AND ENHANCED ASCENT SPREADING INLAND LATER THIS EVE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CONTINUED ISOLD TSTM THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT...PRIMARILY FROM THE BAY AREA SWD TO JUST N OF KSBA. ..RACY.. 02/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 19 05:21:41 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 19 Feb 2006 00:21:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060219052144.622DDD4781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190519 SWODY1 SPC AC 190518 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2006 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...DOWNSTREAM FROM AN ELONGATED LOW SITUATED ACROSS THE GRT BASIN/CA. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION WITH A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS TO PRECLUDE TSTMS. ...CA... IMPULSE DROPPING SWD OFF THE WA COAST WILL ROTATE INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL CA AREA SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. STEEP LAPSE RATES...ENHANCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND OROGRAPHICS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING. A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE AND UPDRAFT LIFE-CYCLES PRECLUDES A GENERAL TSTM AREA ATTM. ..RACY.. 02/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 19 13:01:38 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 19 Feb 2006 08:01:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060219130142.736B4D4BF4@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191300 SWODY1 SPC AC 191258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2006 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODERATE WSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE NATION...DOWNSTREAM FROM ELONGATED TROUGH NOW OVER NRN CA AND THE NRN GRT BASIN. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S...WITH ARCTIC AIR REMAINING SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO PRECLUDE TSTMS. ...CNTRL/SRN CA... UPPER IMPULSE WHICH DROPPED SSE ALONG THE CA CST IN THE LAST 24 HRS WILL MOVE E ACROSS S CNTRL CA TODAY AND INTO THE SRN GRT BASIN BY THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE/COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE LOS ANGELES BASIN AND WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN CA THROUGH MIDDAY. RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER IMPULSE AS IT CROSSES SRN CA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST CLOSER TO MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE STATE. SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT IN THESE AREAS WILL YIELD MODEST LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION AND LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION. A FEW CELLS MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CNTRL CA CST AND PERHAPS IN THE SACRAMENTO VLY. EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE AND SHORT UPDRAFT LIFETIMES APPEAR TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A GENERAL TSTM AREA ATTM. ..CORFIDI.. 02/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 19 16:16:47 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 19 Feb 2006 11:16:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060219161651.89780D50ED@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191615 SWODY1 SPC AC 191613 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2006 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODERATE WSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE NATION...DOWNSTREAM FROM ELONGATED TROUGH NOW OVER NRN CA AND THE NRN GRT BASIN. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S...WITH ARCTIC AIR REMAINING SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO PRECLUDE TSTMS. ...CNTRL/SRN CA... UPPER IMPULSE WHICH DROPPED SSE ALONG THE CA CST IN THE LAST 24 HRS WILL MOVE E ACROSS S CNTRL CA TODAY AND INTO THE SRN GRT BASIN BY THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE/COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE LOS ANGELES BASIN AND WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN CA THROUGH MIDDAY. RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER IMPULSE AS IT CROSSES SRN CA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST CLOSER TO MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE STATE. SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT IN THESE AREAS WILL YIELD MODEST LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION AND LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION. A FEW CELLS MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CNTRL CA CST AND PERHAPS IN THE SACRAMENTO VLY. ..CORFIDI/EVANS.. 02/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 19 20:03:08 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 19 Feb 2006 15:03:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060219200313.9E552D4505@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 192000 SWODY1 SPC AC 191959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2006 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WSWWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO CA. COOL STABLE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS...WHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. TROUGH OVER CA/THE GREAT BASIN WILL SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...CA... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN CA S OF UPPER CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CA. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS NEGLIGIBLE...A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ..GOSS.. 02/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 20 00:42:59 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 19 Feb 2006 19:42:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060220004304.7C9FDD47C6@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200041 SWODY1 SPC AC 200039 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2006 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA... THE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE NRN GRT BASIN AND CA. AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING AND THE DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION BENEATH THE TROUGH WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 02/20/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 20 05:40:50 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 20 Feb 2006 00:40:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060220054056.6F958D4977@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200538 SWODY1 SPC AC 200536 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2006 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... UPPER FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE ON MON WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. POLAR JET ACROSS THE GRTLKS REGION WILL MAINTAIN CONFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM...KEEPING THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY... PRECLUDING TSTMS. TO THE WEST...PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SWD THROUGH THE GRT BASIN AND CA WHILE WEAKENING. LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP AS OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS CA. THOUGH CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY...THERE SEEMS TO BE LITTLE THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR LIGHTNING. ..RACY.. 02/20/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 20 12:54:17 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 20 Feb 2006 07:54:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060220125423.F03D9D4609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201252 SWODY1 SPC AC 201250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODERATE TO FAST WSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE SERN THIRD OF THE NATION...DOWNSTREAM FROM SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE POSITIVE TILT TROUGH OVER THE GRT BASIN. IMPULSE DROPPING SEWD IN NRN STREAM SKIRTING THE FAR NRN PLNS/UPR GRT LKS WILL MAINTAIN CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD KEEP SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS...WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC AIR HOLDING FIRM AT LOWER LEVELS OVER MOST OF THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. BACK WEST...SATELLITE SHOWS AN IMPULSE ATTM MOVING SWWD OFF THE CNTRL CA CST. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT TURNS SE TOWARD SRN CA LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SOMEWHAT AS IT APPROACHES THE SRN CA CST. BUT WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL...DEPTH/ COVERAGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED. ..CORFIDI.. 02/20/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 20 16:17:38 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 20 Feb 2006 11:17:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060220161802.72477D4699@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201616 SWODY1 SPC AC 201614 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..EVANS.. 02/20/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 20 19:56:55 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 20 Feb 2006 14:56:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060220195703.158B5D4699@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201955 SWODY1 SPC AC 201953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST MON FEB 20 2006 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..DIAL.. 02/20/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 21 00:41:14 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 20 Feb 2006 19:41:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060221004123.C30B8D4699@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210039 SWODY1 SPC AC 210037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CST MON FEB 20 2006 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..RACY.. 02/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 21 05:43:50 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 21 Feb 2006 00:43:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060221054400.714D9D4699@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210541 SWODY1 SPC AC 210540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 PM CST MON FEB 20 2006 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... FAST ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS SKIRTING THE NRN TIER. UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED ACROSS CA SINCE LATE LAST WEEK WILL BECOME CUT-OFF IN THE SRN BRANCH BY TUE AFTN. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE DESERT SW AS A TROUGH OVER NWRN BC BEGINS TO DIG SEWD. ...SERN PLAINS... SLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ON TUE...PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING ZONAL UPPER JET STRUCTURE ACROSS THE OH VLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX THROUGH THE DAY. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT A STOUT EML ATOP THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER...CAPPING SURFACE BASED PARCELS AND PRECLUDING DAYTIME TSTM PROBABILITIES. SUBTROPICAL WARM CONVEYOR AHEAD OF THE DESERT SW TROUGH WILL CARRY SUBTLE JETLETS NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT. MAINTENANCE OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME IN CONJUNCTION WITH BROAD WEAK ASCENT TIED TO THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SERN PLAINS LATE TUE NIGHT...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STRONG EML. ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY AOB MINUS 20 DEG C WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SPORADIC LIGHTNING IN THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. HAIL PRODUCTION SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY THE EXPECTED WEAK INSTABILITY. ..RACY.. 02/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 21 13:01:13 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 21 Feb 2006 08:01:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060221130126.62F40D4A6C@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211259 SWODY1 SPC AC 211257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2006 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... FAST WSW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE S CNTRL AND ERN U.S. INTO WEDNESDAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE POSITIVE TILT TROUGH IN THE WEST. UPR LOW IN BASE OF TROUGH...JUST NOW ENTERING SRN CA...SHOULD BECOME REABSORBED INTO THE WLYS AS A NRN STREAM SPEED MAX DROPS SE ACROSS BC. ...ARKLATEX... SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODIFY ACROSS THE SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY TODAY AS MODERATE SW TO WSW 850 FLOW PERSISTS IN RESPONSE TO PASSING LOW AMPLITUDE UPR DISTURBANCES...AND TO STRENGTHENING OF MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE MID MS/OH VLYS. THIS SETUP WILL MAINTAIN MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT EML ABOVE THE MOISTENING LOWER LAYERS...CAPPING REGION TO DEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. WEAK ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO FOCUS ALONG CORRIDOR FROM N TX EWD INTO THE ARKLATEX/NRN MS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB THERMAL GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN IN WAKE OF A NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE MID MS VLY. MAINTENANCE OF WARM/MOIST INFLOW INTO STRENGTHENING 850 FRONT...AND POSSIBLE ASSISTANCE FROM PASSING IMPULSES IN SUBTROPICAL JET...MAY SUPPORT A BAND OR TWO OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NRN/ERN TX AND THE ARKLATEX LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY NEAR MINUS 20 DEG C MAY SUPPORT SPORADIC LIGHTNING IN THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS...BUT OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED BY ABSENCE OF AN IDENTIFIABLE UPR LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND BY SEASONABLY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ..CORFIDI.. 02/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 21 16:21:14 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 21 Feb 2006 11:21:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060221162127.32D81D4A7B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211619 SWODY1 SPC AC 211617 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1017 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2006 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES TODAY AS A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIG SEWD OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. AS THIS OCCURS...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. DOWNSTREAM...SRN EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BEGIN MIXING/ERODING ALLOWING SLY WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. LATER TONIGHT...WSWLY LLJ WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF VERY STRONG UPPER JET MAX OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ATOP MODIFYING ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL THEREFORE SUPPORT INCREASED MOIST CONVECTION INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION...POSSIBLY BY LATER THIS EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH/TN RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY GENERATE A SMALL SLIVER OF ELEVATED CAPE LATER TONIGHT WITH MUCAPE AOB 100 J/KG. THEREFORE...EXPECT NEGLIGIBLE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH 12Z. ..EVANS.. 02/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 21 20:04:44 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 21 Feb 2006 15:04:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060221200456.B0953D487E@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 212002 SWODY1 SPC AC 212001 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0201 PM CST TUE FEB 21 2006 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS VALLEY... SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY IN ASSOCIATION WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET DEVELOPING OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE ABOVE MODIFYING ARCTIC AIR AND CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL RESULT IN ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO SHALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM SERN OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MORE THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHTING STRIKE OR TWO. ..DIAL.. 02/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 22 00:58:33 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 21 Feb 2006 19:58:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060222005847.E8AFFD4A79@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220056 SWODY1 SPC AC 220055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST TUE FEB 21 2006 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN PLAINS... BROAD SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INTENSIFY THIS EVENING AS UPPER JET ACCELERATES OVER THE OH VLY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SERN PLAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BENEATH A STRONG EML. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ AND WEAK ASCENT TIED TO A SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE MOVING NEWD THROUGH TX WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CONVECTION FROM N TX/SRN OK EWD INTO THE ARKLATEX. VERY ISOLD LIGHTNING COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS...PARTICULARLY AFTER 09Z. ..RACY.. 02/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 22 05:47:33 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 22 Feb 2006 00:47:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060222054749.3A317D469F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220546 SWODY1 SPC AC 220544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST TUE FEB 21 2006 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...E TX INTO THE DEEP S... THE NRN STREAM JET AXIS ACROSS THE OH VLY EARLY WED WILL TRANSLATE EWD BY WED EVE. CORE OF THE SWLY LLJ COUPLED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CORRESPONDINGLY MOVE EWD OVER THE SRN STATES THROUGH WED. A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD THROUGH THE SERN PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH. GULF MSTR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD TO THE FRONT AND LIKELY GENERATE CLOUDS AND FOG MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THOUGH CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM ERN TX INTO THE DEEP S VCNTY THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MINIMAL INSOLATION WILL MITIGATE WIDESPREAD TSTMS. RATHER...ISOLD AND SPORADIC LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGHEST TSTMS PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY WHERE MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LLJ AXIS WILL BE STRONGEST. ..RACY.. 02/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 22 13:00:38 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 22 Feb 2006 08:00:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060222130055.DD6EDD43AB@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221259 SWODY1 SPC AC 221258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST WED FEB 22 2006 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD NRN STREAM TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE N CNTRL STATES WILL BECOME DOMINANT JET FEATURE THIS PERIOD AS EXISTING BAND OF FAST WSW FLOW OVER THE S CNTRL/SERN U.S. MOVES E INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY/GULF CST AND SERN STATES. THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO PASSING LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN THE NRN STREAM...AND TO EWD PROGRESSION/DEAMPLIFICATION OF LAST MAJOR SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER THE SRN RCKYS. ...E TX INTO THE DEEP S... NRN STREAM JET AXIS ACROSS THE OH VLY EARLY WED WILL MOVE E TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST BY THIS EVE. CORE OF ASSOCIATED SWLY LLJ WILL CORRESPONDINGLY MOVE E OVER THE GULF CST REGION. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD N INTO VICINITY OF DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ON LEADING EDGE OF AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SURGE. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. A BAND OR TWO OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SE TX ENE INTO PARTS OF LA/MS/AL AND GA LATER TODAY AS TIGHTENING OF BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCES ASCENT. SEASONABLY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED SURFACE HEATING WILL MINIMIZE DESTABILIZATION. BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT SPORADIC LIGHTNING IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDER SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY WHERE MASS CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST. ...S CNTRL TX... AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THUNDER MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER S CNTRL TX AS REGION IS BRUSHED BY SRN END OF WRN TROUGH BECOMING REABSORBED INTO THE WLYS. COMPARATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE AOA 250 J/KG ON WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS. ..CORFIDI.. 02/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 22 16:25:05 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 22 Feb 2006 11:25:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060222162528.F33ADD450E@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221618 SWODY1 SPC AC 221617 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1017 AM CST WED FEB 22 2006 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CONFLUENT JETS OVER CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IN TURN FORCE THE FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY FROM THE CAROLINAS WSWWD INTO CENTRAL TX TO BEGIN MOVING SWD. MOIST SLY FLOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS GULF STATES PROVIDING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MUCH OF CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED TO N OF FRONTAL ZONE AS WARM SECTOR TO S OF FRONT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CAPPED. MOST ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS GULF STATES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN WARM SECTOR SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. ..HALES.. 02/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 22 20:08:28 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 22 Feb 2006 15:08:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060222200847.803F6D43AB@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 222006 SWODY1 SPC AC 222005 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 PM CST WED FEB 22 2006 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH SERN U.S.... THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM SC WWD THROUGH CNTRL AL AND FARTHER W INTO ERN TX. A WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SERN STATES THAT APPEARS TO BE COUPLED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID LEVEL JET OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS WILL SHIFT EWD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN INFLUX OF MOIST GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. RESULTING THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AND MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY N OF SURFACE FRONT. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR S OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDING AND ACARS DATA SHOW PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL INVERSION WHICH IS LIMITING INSTABILITY AND SUGGESTS THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW AND GENERALLY BELOW 25000 FT WITH LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES THROUGH THIS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LAYER ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY AOA 45 KT...AND SOME WEAK ROTATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH ACTIVITY OVER CNTRL AL. A OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A BRIEF TORNADO MAY EXIST WITH THE SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. HOWEVER...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND WARM MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL.. 02/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 23 00:50:26 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 22 Feb 2006 19:50:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060223005048.9C14FD43B1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230048 SWODY1 SPC AC 230046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CST WED FEB 22 2006 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PORTIONS OF AL/GA... STORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER CENTRAL AL/W CENTRAL GA EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG COLD FRONT...AS WEAK UPPER FEATURE MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL...FAVORABLY STRONG/VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT SUPPORT ROTATION -- WHICH HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN STRONGER CELLS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL SUPPORT A DECREASE IN ALREADY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED/SLOW WEAKENING TREND IN ONGOING CONVECTION. A LINGERING THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS -- MAINLY ACROSS E CENTRAL AL/W CENTRAL GA. ..GOSS.. 02/23/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 23 05:28:38 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 23 Feb 2006 00:28:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060223052900.BD932D43B3@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230527 SWODY1 SPC AC 230525 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CST WED FEB 22 2006 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH WLY/NWLY FLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH SPREADING EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES/INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THOUGH MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL PREVAIL S OF THIS FRONT...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR -- MAINLY ACROSS N FL AND W TX/S NM. ...NRN FL... WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE FRONT FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION...THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION REACHES A DIURNAL MAXIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...W TX/SRN NM... SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE SRN STREAM ARE FORECAST TO TRAVERSE SRN NM/TX THIS PERIOD. THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...A FEW STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING INVOF TRAILING PORTION OF SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES. ..GOSS.. 02/23/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 23 13:00:18 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 23 Feb 2006 08:00:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060223130042.8A997D43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231258 SWODY1 SPC AC 231256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 AM CST THU FEB 23 2006 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM WILL BECOME DOMINANT JET ACROSS THE NATION THIS PERIOD ...WITH STRONGEST PART OF SRN BRANCH CONTINUING TO EDGE E INTO THE ATLANTIC. A TROUGH IN THE NRN STREAM...NOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS... WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ESE AND AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT UPON REACHING WRN NEW ENG EARLY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP DRIVE COLD FRONT OVER GA AND THE CAROLINAS SWD/EWD INTO FL AND THE ATLANTIC. WRN PART OF FRONT AFFECTING THE SERN U.S. SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY OVER NE MEXICO TODAY. IT LIKELY WILL BEGIN TO REFORM NWD WITH TIME AS DEEP LAYER FLOW BACKS IN WAKE OF GRT LKS TROUGH...AND AHEAD OF SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE NOW OFF NRN BAJA. ...N FL... LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND CONVERGENCE...WILL REMAIN WEAK ALONG AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...THUS THUNDER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION ALONG BOUNDARY REACHES MAXIMUM DEPTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...W TX/SRN NM... SEVERAL WEAK SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCES ARE APPARENT IN SATELLITE DATA ATTM...UPSTREAM FROM FAR W TX/SRN NM. SHALLOW COOL DOME AND CLOUDS LIKELY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT LOW LEVELS OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...LIMITING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. BUT HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN MAY YIELD A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA IN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE MAY DRIFT NE INTO THE U.S. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT CLOUD TOPS MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO YIELD OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. ..CORFIDI.. 02/23/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 23 16:24:43 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 23 Feb 2006 11:24:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060223162508.68350D43EE@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231621 SWODY1 SPC AC 231619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 AM CST THU FEB 23 2006 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LARGE SCALE FLOW CONTINUES TO DE AMPLIFY ACROSS CONUS WITH DOMINATE WLY COMPONENT. CONFLUENCE OF SRN AND NRN BRANCHES OCCURRING OVER ERN U.S. UNDER WHICH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CAROLINAS WSWWD TO OFF UPPER TX COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SEWD. BY 12Z FRI FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WWD ACROSS NRN GULF TO S TX. SOME WEAK CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING VICINITY FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SERN U.S. OVERNIGHT. S OF FRONT...ACROSS NRN FL ...DAYTIME HEATING WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR ABOVE 80F WHICH ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S PROVIDES SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY(MLCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG) TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN 6C/KM...PRECLUDES A CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS. STORM POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH WEAKENING INSTABILITY. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FAR SWRN TX AND SRN NM FOR TONIGHT AS COMBINATION OF MOIST WSWLY SRN BRANCH COMBINES WITH LOW LEVEL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON SELY FLOW. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL...HOWEVER WITH AID OF LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH NOW MOVING INLAND SRN CA/NRN BAJA THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER DARK. ..HALES.. 02/23/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 24 00:56:11 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 23 Feb 2006 19:56:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060224005638.CD15ED43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240053 SWODY1 SPC AC 240052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CST THU FEB 23 2006 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN U.S... 00Z SOUNDING FROM EPZ EXHIBITS MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM...WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION FROM NRN MEXICO INTO WEST TX. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS ROUGHLY 100-200J/KG...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NM/MEXICO BORDER. LATEST THINKING IS SFC BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE EWD TOWARD EL PASO BEFORE UPDRAFTS BECOME ELEVATED OVER WEST TX. LIGHTNING SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING/WEAKENING LAPSE RATES...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT INTO WCNTRL TX. ..DARROW.. 02/24/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 24 05:46:00 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 00:46:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060224054631.285B0D432A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240545 SWODY1 SPC AC 240543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CST THU FEB 23 2006 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTH CENTRAL U.S... NRN BAJA UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT EWD INTO INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID VERTICAL ASCENT ATOP COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY OVER TX INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL BE ROOTED NEAR 850MB...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME THREAT FOR NEAR SFC-BASED ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...WWD INTO NM WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MUCH STEEPER...APPROACHING 8C/KM. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...IT APPEARS MEAGER CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY...ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG...WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT FOR LONGER LIVED UPDRAFTS. ELEVATED CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING WILL BE COMMON WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BENEATH COLD THERMAL TROUGH INTO SRN NM MOSTLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. ..DARROW.. 02/24/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 24 12:56:21 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 07:56:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060224125652.AF1D5D43B1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241255 SWODY1 SPC AC 241253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... TWO SEPARATE FLOW STREAMS CHARACTERIZE THE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A NRN STREAM FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A SRN STREAM FROM NRN MEXICO TO THE GULF COAST STATES. WITHIN THE SRN STREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN BAJA WILL MOVE GENERALLY EWD TO WRN/CENTRAL TX BY EARLY SATURDAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY FROM EXTREME SE AZ EWD ACROSS SRN NM/W TX IN THE REGION OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID LEVEL WAVE AXIS...AND ALONG THE NWRN FRINGE OF A PLUME OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THOUGH MUCAPE SHOULD REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 40S...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INVOF FAR W TX. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THREAT FOR A FEW ELEVATED STORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS W CENTRAL TX TODAY. FARTHER E AND LATER TONIGHT... INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN AND LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN STREAM WAVE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN EXPANDING RAIN SHIELD WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND N TX EWD TOWARD LA. ..THOMPSON.. 02/24/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 24 16:35:42 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 11:35:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060224163615.BC4A8D432A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241632 SWODY1 SPC AC 241630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN NM/SW TX... SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN BAJA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL TRACK EWD TODAY ACROSS NRN MEXICO NEAR THE U.S. BORDER REACHING SW/W TX LATE TONIGHT. VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ACROSS NRN CHIHUAHUA INTO NM AND SW TX ALLOWING FOR STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS MID LEVEL COLD POCKET /-20 C AT 500 MB/ WITH SRN STREAM WAVE SPREADS EWD. DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S/... STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NM AND FAR W TX IN THE REGION OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID LEVEL WAVE AXIS...AND WHERE STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING RESULTS IN GREATEST AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INVOF FAR W TX...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE COVERAGE. THUS...THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITH AN EWD EXTENSION OF LOW SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITIES INTO PARTS OF SW/W TX AS EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR/ INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WITH ISOLATED HAIL INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...BROAD ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA REGIME ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN TX TODAY AND DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD LA TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. ..PETERS.. 02/24/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 24 19:47:17 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 14:47:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060224194750.E8387D43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241945 SWODY1 SPC AC 241944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN NM INTO SWRN TX... AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOBILE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO SONORA MEXICO...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT INTO WRN TX. INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER SWRN NM WITHIN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT SBCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK SURFACE WINDS...CURRENT ELP VWP SHOWS 60-65 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH IS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT INTO PARTS OF FAR WRN/SWRN TX TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MD 0165. ...CNTRL/ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON OVER W-CNTRL TX AHEAD OF A WEAKER MID LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/EXPAND EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...THOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ..MEAD.. 02/24/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 25 00:46:19 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 19:46:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060225004654.847B4D4666@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250044 SWODY1 SPC AC 250042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WEST TX/SRN NM... STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED AND MOVED ACROSS THE MEXICAN/TX BORDER...JUST SE OF ELP. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN A FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATE REGIME WHERE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG SFC-BASED CAPE. EPZ SOUNDING WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS FLOW VEERS NICELY WITH HEIGHT AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS NORTH OF EJECTING JET MAX. AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WEST TX IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY/EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION. EWD EXTENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE MODULATED BY STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE FORCING THAT WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS BEFORE SFC-BASED ACTIVITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY ELEVATED...FUELED BY WEAKER INSTABILITY AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM. ..DARROW.. 02/25/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 25 05:43:05 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 25 Feb 2006 00:43:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060225054341.95685D43B1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250541 SWODY1 SPC AC 250539 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF COAST... SRN ROCKIES UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EWD ACROSS THE GULF STATES SATURDAY...NEARING THE GA/FL COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE WITHIN 100 MI OF THE GULF COAST WHILE ONLY A WEAK SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THEN OFF THE GA/SC COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST THIS PERIOD IS THE EXPECTED RETURN OF QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INLAND. IT APPEARS UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT INTO SRN PORTIONS OF LA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...SPREADING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF SURGING FRONTAL ZONE LATE. WITH WLY FLOW DEEPENING AND WEAK WARM SECTOR CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFT IDENTITY WHERE HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS DOES MANAGE TO SPREAD INLAND. MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THAT REGION ALONG/NORTH OF E-W WIND SHIFT. AS A RESULT...THE PROSPECT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...MAINLY DUE TO WEAK FORCING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SRN LA EARLY IN THE PERIOD COULD PRODUCE A LOCAL WIND GUST OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO...BUT THE PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE GULF COAST. ..DARROW.. 02/25/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 25 12:55:08 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 25 Feb 2006 07:55:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060225125547.51D07D41B8@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251253 SWODY1 SPC AC 251252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2006 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER W TX WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GULF STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AN E-W ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE NRN GULF COAST AND MOVE EWD ACROSS N FL AND OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A SEPARATE NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY LATE TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SRN STREAM WAVE. ...NRN GULF COAST TODAY... A BROAD AREA OF RAIN AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE TX...WITH OTHER THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS FORMING ACROSS LA/MS. THIS CONVECTION WILL PERSIST TODAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLY/SWLY FEED OF MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WILL SPREAD NWD INTO SE LA AND THE FL PANHANDLE...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE AREA OF ASCENT OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE. STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT MAY POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT LATER TODAY. ...E CENTRAL FL COAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS N FL AND L0W-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE SLY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND N FL. A N-S CONFLUENCE BAND IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INVOF THE CENTRAL AND NE FL COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EARLY STAGES OF CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE NE FL COAST. AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO THE MID-UPPER 60S FROM S TO N BY AFTERNOON...AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED /SBCAPE AOA 500 J/KG/. DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...FORECAST WIND PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...AND PERHAPS THE RISK OF ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG E CENTRAL FL COAST. ..THOMPSON.. 02/25/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 25 16:38:09 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 25 Feb 2006 11:38:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060225163849.00584D41B8@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251631 SWODY1 SPC AC 251629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2006 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LA/MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST REGION. THE LEAD TROUGH IS NOW OVER LA/MS...AND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN NEW-MOB. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING NEAR COAST MAY AID THREAT OF ISOLATED GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LATER TODAY IN THIS REGION. ISOLATED CELLS MAY POSE A RISK OF HAIL...BUT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ...NORTHEAST FL... MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN THIS EVENING AS LEAD SYSTEM APPROACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST. STRENGTHENING LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS...COUPLED WITH INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC...INDICATE A THREAT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATER TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST FL AND SOUTHEAST GA. RAPID MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND LIMITED THREAT AREA SUGGEST CATEGORICAL THREAT NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. ..HART.. 02/25/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 25 19:49:59 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 25 Feb 2006 14:49:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060225195040.CD7E7D41DC@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251948 SWODY1 SPC AC 251947 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2006 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST... 19Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW E OF JAX WWD TO SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE NEAR PNS AND THEN WSWWD TO AN ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SERN LA /W OF NEW/. DESPITE A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ S OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LIMITED SBCAPES TO AOB 200-500 J/KG. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN FL PENINSULA WHERE STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STRONGER INSTABILITY. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ESEWD INTO THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BELT OF MODESTLY STRONG /50-70 KT/ WSWLY FLOW CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. SOME THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ALONG/S OF THE SURFACE FRONT MAINLY FROM THE FL PNHDL EWD ACROSS NRN FL. ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SWD INTO THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WHERE STRONGER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE THE WEAK INSTABILITY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..MEAD.. 02/25/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 26 01:05:16 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 25 Feb 2006 20:05:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060226010600.8748BD43A0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260104 SWODY1 SPC AC 260102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2006 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...THE SOUTHEAST... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN FL PANHANDLE AND SWWD INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM SRN GA WSWWD TO THE SRN-MOST TIP OF LA. INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE LIMITED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH GREATEST CAPE EVIDENT ALONG THE E COAST OF FL FROM ROUGHLY JAX TO VRB /EVENING JACKSONVILLE FL RAOB INDICATED AROUND 300 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/. WITH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD FORECAST TO INCREASE AS UPPER TROUGH NOW NEARING THE LOWER MS VALLEY MOVES EWD...A LIMITED THREAT FOR A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST OR BRIEF TORNADO MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THIS EVENING. OVERALL HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW. ..GOSS.. 02/26/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 26 05:59:18 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 26 Feb 2006 00:59:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060226060005.27FA3D469F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260558 SWODY1 SPC AC 260556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2006 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND A RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SEWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ...S FL... COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY...MOVING S OF THE PENINSULA/KEYS BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE...DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION /LESS THAN 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- WILL PERSIST/SHIFT SWD AHEAD OF FRONT. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT SUGGEST THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK/SUB-SEVERE. WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREATS IN CURRENT FORECAST...THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED. ..GOSS.. 02/26/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 26 12:50:48 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 26 Feb 2006 07:50:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060226125136.7DBD5D43D1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261249 SWODY1 SPC AC 261248 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2006 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A SRN STREAM TROUGH IS MOVING EWD OVER THE SE ATLANTIC COAST AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING GRADUALLY ALONG THE FRONT...AND ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS S FL TODAY AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHIFTS E OF FL. OTHERWISE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 33 N AND 130 W WILL APPROACH NW CA BY EARLY TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OCEANIC LIGHTNING DETECTION DATA HAVE INDICATED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...THE STEEPER LAPSE RATE/WEAK INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ..THOMPSON.. 02/26/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 26 16:29:49 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 26 Feb 2006 11:29:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060226163039.5E98DD43B1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261624 SWODY1 SPC AC 261623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2006 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE PERSISTING ACROSS THE WEST. SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WILL POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND WEAKENING WIND FIELDS WILL MITIGATE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NATION TODAY. ..HART.. 02/26/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 26 19:36:33 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 26 Feb 2006 14:36:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060226193724.6E3EAD432A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261934 SWODY1 SPC AC 261933 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0133 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2006 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...S FL... SURFACE AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BAND OF STRONGEST CONVECTION NOW WELL TO THE NE OF THE REGION. WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THREAT OF ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER S FL THROUGH TONIGHT. ...CA... WEAKENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE CA COAST TONIGHT...CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ANY POSITIVE BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW AND BELOW THAT PORTION OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE TO SUPPORT CHARGE SEPARATION. ..MEAD.. 02/26/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 27 00:33:59 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 26 Feb 2006 19:33:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060227003452.91D2CD4314@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270033 SWODY1 SPC AC 270031 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0631 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2006 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL S OF THE FL PENINSULA...AND WITH IT THE THREAT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE...CYCLONIC SWLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF LARGE ERN PAC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN CA. AIRMASS ACROSS THIS REMAIN SHOULD...HOWEVER...REMAIN TOO STABLE FOR ANY MORE THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE. CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. ..GOSS.. 02/27/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 27 05:57:35 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 27 Feb 2006 00:57:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060227055831.0C15DD432A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270556 SWODY1 SPC AC 270554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2006 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND/THE WRN ATLANTIC AND A SECOND TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE W COAST. ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER THIS PERIOD WILL BE OVER THE WRN U.S. AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COAST. ...WRN CONUS... WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE WRN U.S. AS COOLING ALOFT SPREADS ONSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER TROUGH. THEREFORE...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..GOSS.. 02/27/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 27 12:45:51 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 27 Feb 2006 07:45:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060227124650.35FFED41DC@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271244 SWODY1 SPC AC 271242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 AM CST MON FEB 27 2006 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE ONLY THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREA ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OF CA/NV IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INLAND BY TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NW CA COAST WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN A BROAD SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING NEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ROOTED NEAR THE GROUND ALONG AND W OF THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT. ..THOMPSON.. 02/27/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 27 16:30:53 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 27 Feb 2006 11:30:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060227163210.5AF2CD43EE@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271629 SWODY1 SPC AC 271627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CST MON FEB 27 2006 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... 12Z SOUNDINGS ALONG THE CA COAST INDICATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING INLAND IN ADVANCE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH...WITH THE SRN EXTENT CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 31N 137W PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE IMMEDIATE CA COAST...SINCE A DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS INLAND SHOULD PRECLUDE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR STORMS. THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT...WITH INSTABILITY GRADUALLY BECOMING ROOTED NEAR THE GROUND LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WEST OF THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES SPREAD INLAND. GIVEN 35-45 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS...A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY REACH THE SURFACE WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..PETERS.. 02/27/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 27 20:03:17 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 27 Feb 2006 15:03:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060227200420.3B29BD43D1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 272001 SWODY1 SPC AC 272000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CST MON FEB 27 2006 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES MEAN RIDGE FROM NWRN MEX NWD ACROSS ERN GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES...AND WEAK HEIGHT RISES OVER MUCH OF ERN CONUS S OF CYCLONE IN CANADIAN MARITIMES. PRONOUNCED TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AROUND 135W -- W OF CA COAST. BROAD FETCH OF SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH EMBEDDED MINOR SHORTWAVES...WILL PERSIST THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD OVER W COAST STATES. ...CA/NV... BROAD ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EVIDENT AHEAD OF OFFSHORE TROUGH...IN CONVECTIVE CLOUD CHARACTER AND IN SPORADIC DETECTION OF CG LIGHTNING STRIKES OFFSHORE CENTRAL/SRN CA COAST. AS THIS REGIME MOVES EWD...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT/DEVELOP ONSHORE THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. STEEPENING LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED WITH SUBTLE SFC HEATING THAT WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SUFFICE FOR GEN TSTM POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER AREA. PRIMARY BAROCLINIC BAND OF LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL SHIFT THUNDER POTENTIAL WELL INLAND TONIGHT WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES UP TO AROUND 200 J/KG POSSIBLE. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FEATURING 50-60 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS...HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BY MUCH SMALLER EFFECTIVE SHEARS AND WEAK SFC THETAE. ..EDWARDS.. 02/27/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 28 00:59:45 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 27 Feb 2006 19:59:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060228010051.C73DFD43EE@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280058 SWODY1 SPC AC 280057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CST MON FEB 27 2006 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA/NV AND PARTS OF SRN ORE/SWRN ID... WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS CA -- IN MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC /AXIS INVOF 130 DEGREES W/. MOST LIGHTNING HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE...WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY ONSHORE. HOWEVER...A FEW STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ON THE W SLOPES OF THE SIERRA...WITHIN DEEP LAYER OF UPSLOPE FLOW. AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...ADDITIONAL COOLING ALOFT MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO ALLOW A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES TO SPREAD NEWD INTO PARTS OF NV AND VICINITY LATER IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...OVERALL ONSHORE LIGHTNING COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LOW. ..GOSS.. 02/28/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 28 05:51:50 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 28 Feb 2006 00:51:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060228055258.DA339D43B1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280550 SWODY1 SPC AC 280549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST MON FEB 27 2006 VALID 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE VORTEX WILL PERSIST OVER ERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD...WHILE UPSTREAM A RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. FURTHER W...A TROUGH JUST OFF THE W COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S./ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY WITH TIME...AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE LARGE/PERSISTENT RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN/MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE PLAINS AS WRN UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES. ...CA ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES... THOUGH UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME...COMBINATION OF MOIST SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-28 C AT H5/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEUTRAL/MINIMALLY-UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS TROUGH MOVES ENEWD WITH TIME...LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION -- WITH ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LIGHTNING -- WILL SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. ..GOSS.. 02/28/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 28 12:45:39 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 28 Feb 2006 07:45:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060228124652.32AB6D43B1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281245 SWODY1 SPC AC 281243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2006 VALID 281300Z - 011200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES...AND GRADUALLY LOSE AMPLITUDE WHILE ENCOUNTERING THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND NRN CA NEWD ACROSS NV/ERN ORE/ID/NW UT TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC BAND AND THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...A MODIFYING CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS IS RETURNING NWD FROM THE WRN GULF BASIN IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL THIS PERIOD AND A RELATIVELY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ..THOMPSON.. 02/28/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 28 16:32:23 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 28 Feb 2006 11:32:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060228163338.6024FD4596@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281630 SWODY1 SPC AC 281629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2006 VALID 281630Z - 011200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPR TROUGH OFF THE NRN CA CST APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED MAXIMUM INTENSITY. ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED VORT CENTER NOW ABOUT 145 WSW OF KEKA IS MOVING APPROX 270/15 AND WILL CROSS NRN CA LATER TODAY/ TONIGHT AS SYSTEM DEAMPLIFIES. THE DISTURBANCE IS PRECEDED BY A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE BAND/SHALLOW COLD FRONT WITH CONVECTION/STORMS THAT ATTM EXTEND ALONG THE CA CST N OF KSFO. ...NRN CA... CONVECTIVE BAND WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO THE NRN SACRAMENTO VLY BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF VORT...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /MINUS 28-30 C AT 500 MB/... OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT AND DIURNAL HEATING ALL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL. ADDITIONAL THUNDER MAY ALSO AFFECT THE NRN CA CST AND CSTL RANGE AS VORT MOVES ASHORE LATER IN THE DAY. ...ERN NV/UT/SRN ID... FARTHER E...MAIN DEEP LAYER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO WRN/NRN NV/SE ORE. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO UT AND THE SNAKE RIVER VLY OF ID LATER TODAY. SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT/UPR DIFLUENCE...AND PRESENCE OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STRONG GRADIENT AND ISALLOBARIC WIND FIELDS MAY YIELD A SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO MAY COINCIDENTAL WITH CONVECTION GIVEN STRENGTH OF UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD. ..CORFIDI.. 02/28/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 28 16:45:45 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 28 Feb 2006 11:45:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060228164700.314DED43D9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281639 SWODY1 SPC AC 281637 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1037 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2006 VALID 281630Z - 011200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPR TROUGH OFF THE NRN CA CST APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED MAXIMUM INTENSITY. ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED VORT CENTER NOW ABOUT 145 WSW OF KEKA IS MOVING APPROX 270/15 AND WILL CROSS NRN CA LATER TODAY/ TONIGHT AS SYSTEM DEAMPLIFIES. THE DISTURBANCE IS PRECEDED BY A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE BAND/SHALLOW COLD FRONT WITH CONVECTION/STORMS THAT ATTM EXTEND ALONG THE CA CST N OF KSFO. ...NRN CA... CONVECTIVE BAND WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO THE NRN SACRAMENTO VLY BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF VORT...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /MINUS 28-30 C AT 500 MB/... OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT AND DIURNAL HEATING ALL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL. ADDITIONAL THUNDER MAY ALSO AFFECT THE NRN CA CST AND CSTL RANGE AS VORT MOVES ASHORE LATER IN THE DAY. ...ERN NV/UT/SRN ID... FARTHER E...MAIN DEEP LAYER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO WRN/NRN NV/SE ORE. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO UT AND THE SNAKE RIVER VLY OF ID LATER TODAY. SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT/UPR DIFFLUENCE...AND PRESENCE OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STRONG GRADIENT AND ISALLOBARIC WIND FIELDS MAY YIELD A SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO COINCIDENTAL WITH CONVECTION GIVEN STRENGTH OF UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD. ..CORFIDI.. 02/28/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 28 20:02:38 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 28 Feb 2006 15:02:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060228200354.A92D7D487E@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 282001 SWODY1 SPC AC 281959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2006 VALID 282000Z - 011200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING...AND PRONOUNCED TROUGH FROM ERN GULF OF AK SWD OFFSHORE CA. PRIMARY MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL AND VIS IMAGERY AS SWIRL INVOF CAPE MENDOCINO. THIS FEATURE...AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NRN CA TOWARD SWRN ORE AND NWRN NV THROUGH TONIGHT. ...NRN CA... PRIMARY BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS -- WHICH HAS INCLUDED A FEW SMALL SUPERCELLS -- IS EVIDENT ATTM IN VIS AND REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY FROM SIERRAN FOOTHILLS ESE SAC...SWWD TO NRN FRINGES OF MRY BAY. AS NRN END OF THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHES UPON PENETRATION OF MORE ELEVATED/COOLER TERRAIN...MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VALLEY FROM MOD AREA ALMOST TO FAT. EXPECT MIDLEVEL COOLING -- PRODUCED BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF LAND FALLING SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION -- TO JUXTAPOSE VERTICALLY WITH OPTIMAL DIABATIC SFC HEATING. RESULTING BOOST IN LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD COMBINE WITH MID/UPPER 40S F SFC DEW POINTS TO YIELD MLCAPES 200-300 J/KG AND MUCAPES TOPPING 500 J/KG...PER MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. PRE-STORM VWP FROM SAC AREA INDICATED FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...AUGMENTED BY OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED BACKING OF SFC WINDS. VEERING/WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH ATTENDANT REDUCTION IN BOTH SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE...IS EXPECTED AFTER PASSAGE OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...THOUGH SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER N. ...GREAT BASIN... WIDELY SCATTERED/HIGH-BASED TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS BAROCLINICALLY ENHANCED CONVECTIVE BAND NOW OVER CENTRAL/NERN NV SHIFTS EWD THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL...MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ALSO MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED BAND. CONTINUED SFC HEATING OF RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINT BOUNDARY LAYERS MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LIMITS...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR SUBSEVERE CONVECTIVE GUSTS SUPERIMPOSED ON STRONG GRADIENT FLOW TO YIELD DAMAGING WIND. ..EDWARDS.. 02/28/2006