[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 311951
SWODY1
SPC AC 311949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CST SUN DEC 31 2006

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SE GA AND NRN FL...
AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM MIDDLE TN EXTENDING SWD
ACROSS CNTRL AL. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS WELL AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY IN SW GA AND ACROSS THE ERN FL PANHANDLE. SFC DEWPOINTS
AHEAD OF THE LINE RANGE FROM THE MID 60S F TO THE LOWER 70S F AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS
THE NRN PENINSULA OF FL INTO SRN AND ERN GA. THE LINE SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED MOVING EWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SMALL
50 KT MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED BEHIND THE LINE WHICH IS POSSIBLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  AS THIS FEATURE DRIFTS
EWD THIS AFTERNOON...SHEAR PROFILES ALONG THE LINE MAY BE JUST
STRONG ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.

...ERN IL/IND/SW LOWER MI...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LIFTING NEWD
ACROSS MO TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY. VERY STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
EXISTS IN A BROAD ZONE AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LOW. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CHICAGO IL AREA EXTENDING SEWD TO THE
VICINITY OF INDIANAPOLIS IN. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ALONG
WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW COULD RESULT IN
A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL MAINLY NEAR OR JUST AFTER
PEAK HEATING.

..BROYLES.. 12/31/2006