[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 201632
SWODY1
SPC AC 201630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST WED DEC 20 2006

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NE NM THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY
ENEWD OVER THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.  AT THE
SURFACE...AN OCCLUDED LOW INVOF NE NM WILL GRADUALLY FILL OVER THE
OK PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING...WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD
ACROSS ERN OK/TX.  REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS FAR N AS KS...AS WELL AS RATHER MARGINAL
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR FARTHER S FROM SE OK
INTO SE TX.  VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN
STRONGER FROM E TX NWD...WHILE THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER INSTABILITY
WILL BE CONFINED MORE TO SE TX AND SRN LA BY TONIGHT.  GIVEN THE
POOR PHASING BETWEEN THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AND THE
FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR...ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL REMAIN RATHER
MARGINAL ACROSS SE TX AND SRN LA THROUGH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 44 N AND 136 W WILL APPROACH NW
WA BY EARLY THURSDAY.  OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA SHOW A FEW STRIKES
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

..THOMPSON.. 12/20/2006