[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 191629
SWODY1
SPC AC 191627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST TUE DEC 19 2006

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER WRN AZ WILL MOVE EWD INTO NM BY TONIGHT AS A
SPEED MAX ROTATES AROUND THE S/SE SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW /OVER NW
MEXICO/...AND UPSTREAM HEIGHTS FALL IN ADVANCE OF A SMALL WAVE NEAR
42 N AND 130 W.  ONE PRONOUNCED BELT OF ASCENT COINCIDES WITH THE
DEEP BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER WRN NM...WHILE TO THE EAST A BROAD REGION
OF ASCENT RELATED TO WAA IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT OVER
THE SRN PLAINS.  REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK BUOYANCY /MUCAPE
OF 100-400 J/KG/ IN A SWATH FROM THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NWD
OVER THE TX/NM HIGH PLAINS.  THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH THE
WAA TODAY AND DIFFERENTIAL CVA DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID LEVEL LOW BY
TONIGHT...WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL EWD SPREAD OF /PRIMARILY/ ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NM/TX PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL/NW TX...WRN OK...AND
SW KS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE PRESENCE OF RATHER POOR LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS S CENTRAL TX WILL TEND TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION AND ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE STORM THREAT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

..THOMPSON.. 12/19/2006