[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 151302
SWODY1
SPC AC 151259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST FRI DEC 15 2006

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG BC/WRN MT TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE E/NE ACROSS AB/SK AND NRN
MT TODAY BEFORE CONTINUING E INTO WRN MB SATURDAY MORNING.  MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE WRN AND CNTRL U.S WILL...HOWEVER...BACK
WITH TIME AS POTENT SYSTEM NOW ALONG 140W AMPLIFIES AND CONTINUES E
TOWARD THE CST.  IN THE E...STLT LOOPS SUGGEST UPR GRT LKS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO AMPLIFY TODAY AS IT CONTINUES E TOWARD THE N ATLANTIC CST.

IN THE WEAKER SRN BRANCH...IMPULSE NOW OVER THE FAR WRN GULF
EXPECTED TO DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY E THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...PAC NW INTO NRN RCKYS...
STLT LOOPS SHOW COMPLEX VORTICITY PATTERN PRESENT ATTM OFF THE
WA/ORE CST.  ONE LOBE APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING SE FROM AREA ABOUT
250 NM NW OF PDX...WITH AN UPSTREAM VORT LIKELY MORE CLOSELY
ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN AMPLIFYING TROUGH CLOSE TO 43N/140W. 
DEEP...COLD CYCLONIC ONSHORE FLOW WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AOB
MINUS 35C WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR THUNDER ALONG THE CASCADES AND
CSTL RANGES AS LEAD VORT MOVES ASHORE LATER TODAY.  FARTHER E...MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INVOF FRONTAL
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH BC/MT TROUGH.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM
FROM AMPLIFYING TROUGH SHOULD REDUCE THUNDER POTENTIAL OVER WRN
WA/ORE THIS EVENING.

...SRN FL...
MOIST...SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN SUPPORT SHOWERS AND A FEW DIURNALLY-ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING S ACROSS REGION.

...NRN PA/UPSTATE NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND...
WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 150-200 J PER KG WITH TOTAL TOTALS AOA 52/
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE ERN GRT LKS LATER TODAY AS UPR SYSTEM
AMPLIFIES ABOVE SEASONABLY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LYR PRESENT OVER
REGION.  STRENGTHENING ASCENT MAY YIELD SCATTERED CONVECTION
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE GIVEN POTENTIAL
FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 12/15/2006