[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 150546
SWODY1
SPC AC 150544

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST THU DEC 14 2006

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD FROM THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS SWWD TO THE GREAT BASIN
AS LARGE SCALE POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH EVOLVES ACROSS THE WEST THIS
PERIOD. ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX/NRN MEXICO
WILL DRIFT EWD OVER THE GULF TODAY AS RESIDUAL LARGE SCALE
BAROCLINIC ZONE BISECTING FL SHIFTS GRADUALLY SOUTH.

...PACIFIC NW COAST...
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS COUPLED WITH VERY COLD
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -34C TO -38C AT 500 MB WILL AGAIN RESULT
IN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. WITH STRONGER
FORCING PASSING EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY TONIGHT...TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH TIME.

...SRN FL PENINSULA...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF WEAK
LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY PUSHING SWD THROUGH THE REGION. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS FRONT...COUPLED WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...
SHOULD RESULT IN TSTM ACTIVITY EMBEDDED WITHIN AREA OF SHOWERS.

...PA/NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND...
WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 150-200 J PER KG/ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST GIVEN UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MIGRATORY SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SREF GUIDANCE INDICATES MOST LIKELY AREAS TO
EXPERIENCE ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ARE FROM ERN LAKE ONTARIO...SWD
TO NERN PA...AND EWD ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY IN THE 19-22Z TIME
FRAME. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS.

..CARBIN.. 12/15/2006