[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 111300
SWODY1
SPC AC 111258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST MON DEC 11 2006

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...IA SWD TO LA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD OVER NE/KS/OK/N TX TODAY AND REACH IA/MO/AR/NW
LA LATE IN THE PERIOD.  AT THE SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLONE
IN WRN KS WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS KS DURING THE DAY...AND THEN NEWD
ACROSS NW MO INTO CENTRAL IA EARLY TUESDAY.  LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM IS DRAWING A MODIFYING GULF AIR MASS
NWD...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S INTO ERN OK AND
LOWER 60S ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST.  THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD NEWD ACROSS LA/AR/MO LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THAT THE STEEPER L0W-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE CONFINED TO THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...AND THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN THESE LAPSE RATES OVERSPREAD THE NW
PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME FROM NE KS INTO MO/IA. 
FARTHER S IN THE WARM SECTOR...GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE COUNTERED BY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. 

DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION BY THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE THREAT FOR
LIGHTNING WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BY EARLY TONIGHT WITHIN THE BAND
OF SHOWERS FROM SE TX INTO AR AS THE MID LEVELS COOL AND CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEPTH DEEPENS.  FARTHER N/NW...SOME SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLDEST MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPEST
LAPSE RATES OVER NE KS/NRN MO/SRN IA.  HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL GIVEN THE VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

..THOMPSON.. 12/11/2006