[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 061258
SWODY1
SPC AC 061256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST WED DEC 06 2006

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES REINFORCING LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM WILL AMPLIFY AS IT DROPS SSE FROM
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO WI/MI BY 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE PROGRESSIVE
W CST RIDGE REACHES THE GRT BASIN/CANADIAN RCKYS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY SWD INTO THE N
CNTRL STATES IN WAKE OF AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH. AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED
PRESSURE SURGE/COLD FRONT...A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SE INTO
E TX AND THE NWRN GULF...AND E/SE TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD.

DRY LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS WILL LIMIT DEPTH
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE LWR 48.  SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED TSTMS COULD...HOWEVER...DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD
JUST OFF THE MIDDLE TX GULF CST...WHERE UPLIFT ALONG WEAK FRONT MAY
BE ENHANCED BY JET ENTRANCE REGION ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING
NRN STREAM IMPULSE.  SCTD TSTMS MAY ALSO FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OFF
THE NC CST...WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE INFLOW WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  OVER THE GRT LKS...MID
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE OVER-LAKE FETCHES MAY
RESULT IN CONVECTION SUFFICIENTLY DEEP/SUSTAINED TO YIELD A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD OVER LKS
SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN.

..CORFIDI.. 12/06/2006