[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 011631
SWODY1
SPC AC 011629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST FRI DEC 01 2006

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC 
AND NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO THE
NORTHEAST...

...PIEDMONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...
PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AHEAD OF INTENSE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW SPREADING TOWARDS ONTARIO.  LEADING LOW
CONTINUES ALONG EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT/WARM FRONT NOW NEAR LAKE ERIE. 
INTENSE PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS LOW...AND MORNING
MODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO DEEPEN AND LIFT INTO NERN NY BY THE EARLY
EVENING.  THIS WILL SURGE LEADING COLD FRONT EWD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND EXTEND FROM ERN NY SSWWD ACROSS WRN NJ AND THE
CHESAPEAKE REGION BY 00Z...AND OFF THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT. 
ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT...NOW WELL DEFINED ACROSS FAR SWRN NY INTO
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...WILL LIFT QUICKLY NWD INTO SWRN/CENTRAL NY AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS ALL BUT NRN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS EVENING.

NARROW LINE OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION HAS STEADILY INCREASED AND
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED INTO FAR WRN PA ND NERN WV THIS MORNING. 
DESPITE THE LIMITED LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...INTENSE
DEEP ASCENT WILL FORCE A NARROW LINE OF INTENSE
CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN VA INTO THE HUDSON
VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY STEADILY
INCREASE...AS WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS.  VWP DATA FROM
KCCX AND KPBZ AHEAD OF THE LINE INDICATE EXTREME WINDS /I.E. 50-60
KT SLYS/ JUST OFF THE SURFACE...WITH RESULTANT VERY LARGE
HODOGRAPHS.  THUS IT APPEARS WIND DAMAGE MAY BECOME QUITE
PRONOUNCED/WIDESPREAD INTO THE MID AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE WELL INTO
THE EARLY EVENING FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PA/NRN MD INTO SWRN NEW
ENGLAND/SERN NY.  GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH ...ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL
ACCOMPANY QUASI-LINEAR OR MORE DISCRETE STORMS.  SEVERE THREAT WILL
BECOME MORE CONDITIONAL FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT /SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA REGION/ DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAKER ASCENT.  HOWEVER...VERY
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES AND VERY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY
TORNADOES.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 12/01/2006