[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 010055
SWODY1
SPC AC 010053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CST THU NOV 30 2006

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SERN U.S.
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO SRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY...

...KY THROUGH TN VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES...

ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH OH TO A
SURFACE LOW NEAR MEMPHIS. THE FRONT THEN EXTENDS SWD THROUGH WRN MS
AND SERN LA. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AND LIFT NEWD TONIGHT AS
ASCENT WITHIN DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET
OVERTAKES THE FRONT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE PORTION OF FRONT S OF THE
LOW WILL SHIFT MORE RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND SERN
STATES. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...THE LOW LEVEL JET AND FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TN VALLEY
INTO KY. 

PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS CHARACTERIZED BY BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
FROM THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST TO NEAR 60 IN SRN PARTS OF THE OH
VALLEY. HOWEVER...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED DAYTIME
HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN VERY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY
FROM 100 TO 300 J/KG. THE 00Z JAN SOUNDING SHOWS ONLY A SLIVER OF
CAPE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. A PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDS
FROM MIDDLE TN SWD THROUGH SERN MS. FARTHER W A MORE STRONGLY FORCED
BAND EXTENDS ALONG THE FRONT FROM EXTREME WRN TN SWD THROUGH WRN MS.


STRONG LINEAR FORCING MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LINE OF LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION WITH LITTLE LIGHTNING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EWD
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILES WITH 60+ KT JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL EXIST IN VICINITY OF
THIS CONVECTION...AND SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM COULD BE TRANSPORTED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...PROMOTING A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG
CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WOULD ALSO LEND SOME SUPPORT FOR LOW TOPPED
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS
AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 12/01/2006