[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 181605
SWODY1
SPC AC 181603

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CST MON DEC 18 2006

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

PART OF A BROAD POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR DIAGNOSTICS
FEATURE A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA. THIS FEATURE
WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY/SOUTHWEST DESERTS INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASING/SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO SOUTHWEST/FAR WEST TX...MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. FARTHER EAST...PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE AND
MARGINAL BUOYANCY/SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT CG
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE ARKLATEX.

..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 12/18/2006