[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 181251
SWODY1
SPC AC 181249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CST MON DEC 18 2006

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE LARGE
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO SOUTHERN
CA.  THE PRIMARY VORT MAX OF THIS TROUGH WILL ROTATE EASTWARD
TODAY/TONIGHT INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL INCREASE FROM PARTS OF UT/AZ EASTWARD INTO WEST TX
MAINLY AFTER 00Z...RESULTING IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY WEAK CAPE VALUES /AOB
250 J/KG/ AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES.  THIS WILL LIMIT LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL TO THE  MOST ORGANIZED/VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION. 
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW.

..HART.. 12/18/2006