[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 180039
SWODY1
SPC AC 180037

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 PM CST SUN DEC 17 2006

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE CA/NV REGION AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  DOMINANT SWLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS FROM NRN
BAJA REGION INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER QUASISTATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM NRN VERMONT THROUGH SWRN MO/NERN OK INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS OF TX.

SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE CAROLINAS EXTENDS WSWWD THROUGH THE WRN
GULF INHIBITING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN.  MODELS HINT AT
INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT FROM ERN OK INTO SERN MO
WHICH MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHALLOW CONVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT...BUT
POOR LAPSE RATES WOULD INDICATE THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.

LATEST RAOB DATA SHOWS THAT 500 MB TEMPS NEAR MID LEVEL LOW
CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL CA ARE AROUND -28C.  SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS INDICATE THAT LIFTED INDICES OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST MAY
BE AROUND -2...THUS ISOLATED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR BUT
THREAT REMAINS TOO MARGINAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD TO
WARRANT A GENERAL THUNDER AREA.

..MCCARTHY.. 12/18/2006