[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 161554
SWODY1
SPC AC 161551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 AM CST SAT DEC 16 2006

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING 35 N AND 125 W...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER
CENTRAL/SRN CA TONIGHT.  COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES ACCOMPANY THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
SWATH OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION W OF THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC BAND JUST
OFF THE CA COAST.  THOUGH OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA HAS SHOWN A
PRONOUNCED DECREASE IN STRIKES SINCE 10Z...THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE TROUGH
MOVES INLAND BY TONIGHT.

...S FL THROUGH TONIGHT...
A LOW-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO TOWARD FL.  IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...A WEAK SURFACE
FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS THE SE GULF AND FL STRAITS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SOME DEEP CONVECTION THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE MOIST PROFILES AND
WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED IN THE 12Z MIAMI AND KEY WEST SOUNDINGS.

..THOMPSON.. 12/16/2006