[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 160519
SWODY1
SPC AC 160516

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 PM CST FRI DEC 15 2006

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVE-TILT LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS THIS PERIOD AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES. IMPULSE
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE THURSDAY/FRIDAY STORM ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK AWAY FROM THE LARGER SCALE WRN
TROUGH...WITH STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS ONTARIO AND
WRN QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER POTENT PACIFIC PERTURBATION...
CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 35N
131W...WILL CROSS THE CA COAST THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING TOWARD THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

DESPITE LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND
SRN U.S....A COMPACT SRN STREAM VORT MAX /MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO ATTM/ SHOULD PASS OVER SWRN FL THROUGH LATE
TODAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ALONG A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED ACROSS THE FL STRAITS.

...NV/UT...
A COUPLE OF TSTMS APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SRN/ERN NV...AND
PERHAPS WRN UT...THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW STATIC STABILITY
ACCOMPANYING UPPER TROUGH ACTS TO ENHANCE LIFT/OROGRAPHIC FORCING
NEAR DEEP-LAYER FRONT. MODEST LAPSE RATES AND MOISTENING NEAR THE
FRONT SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT
PERHAPS ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SPORADIC CG LIGHTNING GIVEN EXPECTED
DYNAMICS.

...FL...
A MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN ALONG A NEARLY 
STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS S FL/FL STRAITS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH APPROACH OF SRN STREAM IMPULSE
AND RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT.

..CARBIN.. 12/16/2006