[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 150100
SWODY1
SPC AC 150058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CST THU DEC 14 2006

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL...
CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW ACROSS SRN/CNTRL PARTS OF THE PENINSULA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS OCNL TSTMS IN MOIST
AIR MASS ACROSS FL TONIGHT. WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE PROBABLY LIMITING
UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND CHARGE SEPARATION. HOWEVER...PASSAGE OF LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES ALOFT COULD STILL ENHANCE MESOSCALE FORCING
AND STORM FORMATION IN MODESTLY SHEARED DEEP-LAYER FLOW. A COUPLE OF
STRONGER STORMS WITH CG LIGHTNING STRIKES STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...NW COAST...
ANOTHER POWERFUL CYCLONE WAS WRAPPING-UP NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND THIS
EVENING WITH 100-110KT MID LEVEL JET SPREADING ACROSS WRN WA/ORE.
GIVEN POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING/COOLING
ALOFT...AND PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE AND UPSLOPE FLOWS...SPORADIC
TSTMS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

...S TX...
A COUPLE OF STORMS HAVE FORMED BENEATH WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING. DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS AND WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE
NEARING 2000 J/KG PER CRP EVENING SOUNDING. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG CONVECTION CAN PERSIST. GIVEN THE
WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND LACK
OF CAP EVIDENT ON THE CRP SOUNDING...EXPECT AT LEAST ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO OF TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION.

..CARBIN.. 12/15/2006