[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 141930
SWODY1
SPC AC 141928

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CST THU DEC 14 2006

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PACIFIC NW...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE WA COAST WITH A CLUSTER OF
TSTMS OBSERVED NEAR 46N/131W AS OF 19Z PER OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA. 
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONTO THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF ATTENDANT SURFACE
PACIFIC FRONT.  DESTABILIZATION ARISING FROM COOLING MID-LEVELS AND
MOISTENING IN THE LOW-LEVELS COUPLED WITH FORCING ALONG FRONT AND
WINDWARD SIDE OF COASTAL RANGE SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVERNIGHT ALONG AND SLIGHTLY INLAND OF THE COAST.

...DEEP S TX...

LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY W OF BRO WILL CONTINUE EWD
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.  TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF NUEVO LEON/TAMAULIPAS MEXICO WITH ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY DEVELOPING NEWD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP S
TX.  AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG.  EXPECT THE THREAT OF TSTMS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS E OF
REGION.

...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA...

AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WEAK LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY FROM
NEAR MLB SWWD TO SRQ WITH SEVERAL NW-SE ORIENTED CONFLUENCE ZONES
PRESENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE SERN FL COAST. 
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS PRIMARY BOUNDARY IS QUITE
MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HOWEVER WEAK
LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING OVERALL INSTABILITY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES PRECEDING S TX IMPULSE /SEE
PREVIOUS SECTION/...ONE OF WHICH IS NEAR GRAND BAHAMA AND THE OTHER
NEAR 24N/84W.  

WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

..MEAD.. 12/14/2006