[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 130048
SWODY1
SPC AC 130046

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CST TUE DEC 12 2006

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MIDWEST/LWR OH VLY...
STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCD WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS SPREADING ENEWD INTO INDIANA AND LWR MI THIS EVENING.  THIS WAS
SUPPORTING A BAND OF TSTMS ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ENEWD
ACROSS LWR MI...IND AND KY THROUGH THE NIGHT.  BUOYANCY IS
LIMITED...BUT 00Z DVN/ILX RAOBS SAMPLED VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITHIN THE CORE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.  THIS COMBINED WITH
MODEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE HEATING CYCLE HAS CONTRIBUTED
TO NARROW AXIS OF MUCAPES OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE FRONT ACROSS SWRN LWR MI TO WRN KY.  TSTMS
PROBABILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT EWD EXTENT WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY LESS FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS THE MID-UPPER OH VLY.  IT APPEARS THAT
THE INTENSITY OF STORMS HAS PEAKED AND NO WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED.

...CNTRL GULF COASTAL REGION...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SECONDARY JET STREAK MIGRATING ACROSS THE DEEP S
THIS EVE WITH RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION DERIVED LARGE SCALE UVV
SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS AL AND COASTAL MS/LA.  BETTER QUALITY
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HUGGING THE COAST VCNTY KMOB APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR PARCELS TO REACH INTO THE ICE PRODUCING LAYER FOR
LIGHTNING.  BUT...00Z JAN/LCH/SHV SOUNDINGS AND LATEST KBTR/KLFT
ACARS SUGGEST THAT WARMING IN THE H7-H5 LAYER WILL SPREAD EWD LATER
THIS EVENING...MAKING THE ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY HOSTILE TO
SUSTAINING TSTMS.

..RACY.. 12/13/2006