[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 121622
SWODY1
SPC AC 121620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST TUE DEC 12 2006

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS MORNING...WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS MN.  MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM LOW ACROSS CENTRAL MO/AR INTO NORTHEAST TX.  NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT HAVE
NOW MOVED SUFFICIENTLY EASTWARD TO ALLOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALONG
FRONT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FRONTAL ZONE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL
IL...SOUTHEAST MO...INTO EASTERN AR.  GIVEN SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING...THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

..HART.. 12/12/2006