[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 110540
SWODY1
SPC AC 110537

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST SUN DEC 10 2006

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID-MO/MS VLY/MIDWEST SWD TO THE WRN GULF COAST REGION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY ON MONDAY WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY WITH 120 METER HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VLY BY EARLY TUE.  AT THE
SFC...PRIMARY SFC LOW WILL EVOLVE AND MOVE ENEWD THROUGH KS TO IA BY
LATE MON NIGHT.  TRAILING THE LOW...A COLD FRONT/DRY LINE WILL
MIGRATE EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.

MODEST RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND MS
VLY MON/MON NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.  00Z MON
RAOBS...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THAT LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RATHER POOR
UNTIL THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRANSLATE EWD.  AS A
RESULT...DEVELOPING WARM CONVEYOR/SHOWERS FROM ERN TX NWD INTO THE
MIDWEST WILL LIKELY BE UNDERPRODUCTIVE WITH RESPECT TO LIGHTNING
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

HIGHER TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT AS STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCD WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM SPREAD
ENEWD.  SPORADIC LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR WITH EVOLVING CONVECTIVE BANDS
DEVELOPING N-W OF THE PRIMARY SFC LOW BETWEEN 00-03Z ACROSS THE
MID-MO VLY.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD NEWD TOWARD PARTS
OF IA AND NRN IL OVERNIGHT.  A SEPARATE REGION OF HIGHER TSTM
PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST GENERALLY AFT 03-06Z FROM ERN TX NEWD INTO
THE MIDWEST ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  STRONGER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY AS ENHANCED ASCENT ASSOCD WITH A 
SECONDARY JET STREAK ARRIVES OVERNIGHT COINCIDENT WITH IMPROVING
LAPSE RATES.  ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER.

..RACY.. 12/11/2006