[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 061629
SWODY1
SPC AC 061627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST WED DEC 06 2006

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
APPEARS MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CHARGE SEPARATION WITHIN MOIST
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND POSSIBLY ERN LAKE MI
LATER TONIGHT. VERY COLD UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH ACCOMPANYING
-20C TO -24C H85 TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE UPPER LAKES IN WAKE
OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. GIVEN CURRENT LAKE SST AROUND 4C TO 7C...
VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP BENEATH INVERSION
LAYER AROUND 750 MB.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL WITH STRENGTHENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTO UPPER MI
LATER TODAY AND INTO PORTIONS OF WRN MI LATE TONIGHT.

...ELSEWHERE...
MOIST CONVECTION WILL NOT LIKELY BECOME ROBUST ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY OVER SRN FL AND FAR ERN NC THIS PERIOD...AS MOST ACTIVITY
REMAINS OFFSHORE.

..EVANS.. 12/06/2006