[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 031252
SWODY1
SPC AC 031250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CST SUN DEC 03 2006

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
BROAD...POSITIVE TILT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY E ACROSS
THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. THIS PERIOD AS E PACIFIC RIDGE REACHES THE W
CST/GRT BASIN. PHASING OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES NOW OVER THE SRN RCKYS
AND UPR MS VLY WILL RESULT IN FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGH OVER
THE SRN PLNS.  THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO SFC DEVELOPMENT LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG FRONT STALLED OFF THE SC/NC CST.  THE WAVE
SHOULD ACCELERATE ENE INTO THE ATLANTIC TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE
MARYLAND CST BY 12Z MONDAY.

STRENGTHENING 925-850 MB WARM ADVECTION N OF SFC FRONT MAY YIELD
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO ALLOW ASSOCIATED CONVECTION/
POSSIBLE THUNDER TO GRAZE THE OUTER BANKS REGION OF NC THIS
EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. FAST EWD MOTION OF SFC WAVE AND LIMITED
DEGREE OF MOISTURE/BUOYANCY IN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER SUGGEST THAT
COVERAGE OVER LAND SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.

ELSEWHERE...DESTABILIZATION OF FAIRLY SHALLOW /BELOW 700 MB/ MIXED
LAYER MAY SUPPORT DEEPENING OF CONVECTION OVER THE UPR GRT LKS LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT. OVERALL COOLNESS OF SOUNDINGS AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE
DEPTHS SUGGEST THAT ANY THUNDER WILL REMAIN ISOLATED.

..CORFIDI.. 12/03/2006