[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 011301
SWODY1
SPC AC 011259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST FRI DEC 01 2006

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM NC AND ERN OH INTO CNTRL NEW ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER IL/IND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACCELERATING NEWD TODAY/TONIGHT AS IT ASSUMES AN INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE TILT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE CENTERED E OF TORONTO BY THIS
EVENING AS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES RAPIDLY ENE FROM WRN OH TO N OF
KALB.  COLD FRONT TRAILING SSW FROM LOW SHOULD REACH THE NJ CST AND
ERN NC BY 00Z SATURDAY.  THE FRONT LIKELY WILL BE WELL OFF THE CST
BY MIDNIGHT.

...UPR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC/NERN STATES...
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO MORE THAN 70 KTS FROM NC INTO THE
NERN U.S. LATER TODAY AS SFC LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS ENE ACROSS NRN
PA/UPSTATE NY. SEASONABLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S/ WILL SWEEP FARTHER NNE INTO THE DELAWARE
AND HUDSON VLYS...AND INTO THE SRN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND. 
ACCELERATION OF NEGATIVE TILT UPR TROUGH WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN VERY STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ALONG/AHEAD
OF SYSTEM COLD FRONT.  COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MODEST
DIURNAL HEATING...SETUP MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT AND/OR
INTENSIFICATION OF NARROW...FAST-MOVING CONVECTIVE LINES/STORMS.

WITH PRE-FRONTAL MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG...COMBINATION OF STRONG
GRADIENT FLOW WITH CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED WINDS COULD YIELD 
SCATTERED SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND.  ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INVOF LINE BREAKS...GIVEN INTENSE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AOA 300 M2/S2/.  WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
GREATEST ALONG AND JUST S OF MID LEVEL SPEED MAX FROM CNTRL/ERN PA
INTO PARTS OF NY/NJ AND WRN/SRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH MORE ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE EXPECTED FARTHER S.

...NC/SRN VA...
STRONGEST FORCING WILL LIFT N OF THIS REGION.  THIS FACTOR...ALONG
WITH MODEST INSTABILITY...SHOULD SERVE TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT.  NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...A
LOW PROBABILITY WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WIND WITH ANY SUSTAINED
CONVECTION FORMING ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

..CORFIDI/KERR.. 12/01/2006